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This morning’s Jobs numbers are good

2.7K views 47 replies 29 participants last post by  AZ_HighCountry  
#1 ·
But I know of a few people that layoffs are impacting. A friend works tech and his company just laid off 10% sparing him for the time being, another friend knows a few guys working at Tesla that just got laid off and his sister works tech where they had a round of lay offs and her boss got whacked


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#2 ·
As has been the case for some time, the jobs numbers are more full of holes than swiss cheese. Dig a little deeper and you quickly conclude that either they are being willfully manipulated or BLS has huge problems with their estimation models.
 
#3 ·
It seems to me that I have always heard the news say 'Jobs are up', but at best that is a nationwide statistic.

It is not like you can look out somewhere and see all of these jobs.

I do not know how any of us can use such data to improve our lives.

My father was a construction worker for the IBEW. He would stop by the union hall every week, and each time there was always a rumor of jobs somewhere. Some 'big project' hiring somewhere. His buddies would load up their trucks and drive somewhere to sign the local union book in the hope of being hired the next week.

But when the Dept of Labor releases their numbers, I am not sure of how useful that data is for anyone.

I used to think the unemployment numbers were useful, but then I did a deep dive into how those numbers get tweaked, and I learned that they are just trying to influence voter behavior.
 
#15 ·
Part time job numbers are up. Full time job numbers are down in almost the same direction. All of that is including illegal immigrant job placement. More illegal immigrants holdimg part time jobs is the magic number behind the curtain. If ya believe talk radio AM 1420 WOC. Quite frankly im too drunk at this point to fact check. Enjoy your weekend everybody! God Bless!
 
#18 ·
Part time job numbers are up. Full time job numbers are down in almost the same direction. All of that is including illegal immigrant job placement.
Yep. The thing about numbers is they don't really matter when you cook the books to show the result you want. Losing 150,000 full time jobs but gaining 325,000 part time jobs is not a good thing. Remember it's just payroll, so you get laid off your full time career and have to work at Wallmart, Wendy's and taco bell that counts as +2 jobs. I continue to see the purse strings tighten in the corporate world.
 
#25 ·
#27 ·
A good friend of mine works for a big box unionized grocery store and he says the new hires they’re getting are all inefficient, old, disabled and people that can’t get anything better. I’m wondering where all the able bodied youngsters are, when I was growing up the workforce was full of Gun Ho kids in and just out of high school
 
#35 ·
Darwin,

Re # 21;

I understood your initial point being made and still agree with it even when changing over from "slave" to "serf".

Only until recently, starting ~ 1870s until ~ 20th century, both of these labor forces were about the same with the big difference being a slave could be sold in slave markets. A serf was a part of the land.
 
#39 ·
I don't know much about this guy but from the couple clips I've seen he seems to have a very rational, fact based approach to presenting info. Check out his video on why the current job numbers fall into the camp of total BS.



If you don't want to watch the summary is:
full time jobs dropped massively, or got converted to one or more part time.
many people got second third forth jobs driving the numbers up
probably most significantly labor force participation rate. If we use the LFP numbers from a year ago to the number of unemployed now unemployment is 4.5 or higher, not 4.0, and up dramatically
stats trickery to make things look better
 
#40 ·
I don't know much about this guy but from the couple clips I've seen he seems to have a very rational, fact based approach to presenting info. Check out his video on why the current job numbers fall into the camp of total BS.



If you don't want to watch the summary is:
full time jobs dropped massively, or got converted to one or more part time.
many people got second third forth jobs driving the numbers up
probably most significantly labor force participation rate. If we use the LFP numbers from a year ago to the number of unemployed now unemployment is 4.5 or higher, not 4.0, and up dramatically
stats trickery to make things look better
And in excess of 100% of the jobs created in the last few years went to foreign born workers, many illegal.