Actually it has been coming for something like 50 years or so at a very gradual rate. Now however, it is speeding up, and things are really coming to light. I think really the big push now is for one world govt or order.

 

I don't believe in the whole NWO thing, especially in light of peak oil. I'd envision the world falling more into something like Europe in the middle ages with peasants, feudal lords, etc. With traditional energy sources depleting, how would a "NWO" have the resources to exert power globally? It's silly paranoia.

 

I just watched the movie "Collapse" last night and it was the first time I'd heard the term.

 

G'Day,

Firstly, "peak oil" should be referred to as "peak economic oil" as theres far more sweet light left under the crust than we've taken out so far, it's just harder to get to and therefore more expensive to extract. This means that if we want to keep driving ic vehicles, we'll have to pay (a lot) more at the pump. This may mean that we plebs start to drive electric/ hydrogen/rubber band powered cars while the rich keep pushing on with their Bentleys and Rollers.

Honestly, in my lifetime(43yr old), I'll just keep paying higher prices and may, in my dotage, be able to buy an affordable electric car with a decent range.

 

Honestly, in my lifetime(43yr old), I'll just keep paying higher prices and may, in my dotage, be able to buy an affordable electric car with a decent range.

Not to be a nit-picker but gas prices in inflation-adjusted dollars are about the same now as they were in the 50's and 60's. In other words, people in the so-called "golden era" of "cheap gas" were actually paying about the same as they are now in relation to everything else.

The difference between then and now is what the peak-oilers (and others in the thread) are saying: *cheap* oil is disappearing and the *real* cost will begin to go up in relation to everything else. (Kinda like the cost of a college education in the US LOL)

 

Peak oil is the reason I prep.

 

That's interesting. If I had to list the most likely scenarios for TSHTF, peak oil would definitely be on there, but it would be way down the list.

So what is your reasoning for it being your #1 concern?

 

Except for the 60 years of oil in Alaska, and no telling how much in Siberia and other places.

 

Peak oil isn't about oil 'running out'. Its about cheap,easy to get to oil running out.

 

Honestly if your worried about peak oil then you should really be worried about Peak Lithium. Lithium is used for a number of things but mostly these days it is used for batteries. Batteries for cell phones, computers, electric cars, etc. Luckily we conveniently "found" some in Afghanistan recently (btw the Russians actually knew of the vast wealth of resources in that hellhole)...

 

That's a good point. Clearly humanity is depleting many natural resources at an unsustainable rate. The question is: Which natural resource bottleneck will trigger a global catastrophe?

I just heard we'll be out of helium in another 50 years; it's underpriced due to ridiculous gubment subsidies. No more party balloons for birthday parties, little kids!

 

Peak Oil is one of the most legitimate concerns discussed here and oddly it's discussed very little. It's a guarantee, the only question is when. I suspect the global push towards being "green" has more to do with peak oil than environmentalism. I believe it's an attempt to transition away from oil without causing a panic.

 

And I thought that Peak made antifreeze not oil .

 

As far as SHTF scenarios go personal and localized are the most likely. These would tend to be short term situations from which one would eventually rebuild or relocate. Peak oil will bring down the entire house of cards. It will be global and there will be no going back.

 

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/study-warns-of-perilous-oil-crisis/
Thought this was an interesting article.

 

the problem with preparing for peak oil is, most of the politicians are like, i am old. it wont happen in my life time. why worry about it? that sorta attitude will lead to a crisis when it does happen. not to mention, if we wreck the worlds environment to get every last drop of oil, we will only be killing ourselves. and then we got to ask, is it worth destroying entire regions (think the alaskan wildlife reserve), just to give us a few more months of oil? when this damange will last thousands of years?

all these things will lead to a true global disaster, sooner rather then later imo

 

Nope. There is oil enough for 100 years. Then there is energy derived from coal products. Then hydrogen technology.
Energy is a political tool. And always will be.

 

Peak oil doesn't mean we'll run out in the near future. It means peak production will be reached in the near future. Production squeeze = much higher prices, outstripping inflation.

If oil cost too much, it could last 1000 years, not 100.

 

The most recent issue (September) of Scientific American has a "centerfold" entitled "How Much is Left?" showing estimates of remaining reserves of various natural resources.

Here's a web-only version of it, though I don't think it's all that great. The paper edition is quite good if you can get ahold of a copy.

Numerous sites like survivalistboards are linking this article as well.

 

I'm not trying to steer this discussion necessarily away from the fact that we can even prove that a finite element of oil exists. I think it is debatable. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't read enough (although I've read articles from both sides) to form an educated opinion.

That being aside, back to prepping:

If I have to actually rank possible SHTF scenarios and their order of likelihood in combination with closest in time of occurance:

1) Economic collapse and ensuing chaos
2) Natural disasters (I live in East TN, we are pretty sheltered from most NDs but earthquakes are a surprisingly high probability in TN-relatively speaking).
3) Economic collapse (it bears repeating)
4) Solar flares destroying electronics on a large scale
5) Large scale terrorist attacks (maybe not so much in TN, but several large cities hit with dirty bombs would absolutely crash our economy, look what 4 plane crashes did to the market in 2001/2002)
6) WWIII due to Iran/Israel
7) Economic collapse (again - it's going to happen)
8) Peak oil ????

I guess I just don't see us running out of easily obtainable cheap oil in the next 100 years. All of the items I listed will surely happen before then. Just some thoughts.

Thoughts???

 

I'm not trying to steer this discussion necessarily away from the fact that we can even prove that a finite element of oil exists. I think it is debatable. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't read enough (although I've read articles from both sides) to form an educated opinion.

I guess I just don't see us running out of easily obtainable cheap oil in the next 100 years. All of the items I listed will surely happen before then. Just some thoughts.

Thoughts???

The above in bold I totally agree with. Have any of you seen how petroleum engineers figure out reserves or estimated production? I personally think it's a joke.

 

I believe that we may have a period of economic turmoil because we wait too long to get off the nipple, but in the end we'll scrape past it like we do all other things we stupidly put off until the last moment.

Not before gas reaches an unbelievable price, however. Unfortunately, unless you have a flex fuel car, you won't be able to grow your own fuel.

 

"Peak oil" makes no sense economically. As prices go up we explore for more oil, drill for more difficult oil and energy use drops. The only reason alternatives aren't on line is because energy isn't expensive enough for them to be profitable.

For example, a few years ago a solar powered home would have been outrageously expensive. Now I am inundated with radio ads for whole house solar systems on my morning commute. Oil starts hitting $75+ a bbl. and making the electric meter spin backwards starts to sound really good. Suddenly we start looking at nuclear again, as France and Japan never stopped looking.

Keep jacking up the price of oil and suddenly shale oil and tar sand start to look really interesting. We have enough coal to last for centuries. There is more than enough oil and gas out there for the immediate future and to provide the gradual decrease in supply that will inevitably wean us off fossil fuels some time in the next century.

The threat isn't running out of oil. It is government and the more extremist environmental groups putting up ever more barriers to entrepreneurship and impossible regulatory requirements that stymie the transition.

 

Some very good points indeed.

One argument will be (again, I don't necessarily have an opinion on this, but can see the argument from both sides) is that any "new" type of fuel or technology beit hydrogen, shale oil, nuclear, etc will not be something we can readily implement overnight. In 2008 prices were around $150/bl and there was no quick way out. We were stuck.

Now, I'm not necessarily saying that we will wake up one morning and Chevron is going to announce that there is no more gas, but looking at the political side of things, OPEC can more or less do this to us in a price gouging campaign.

In the end, we really need to be making plans to get off of foreign oil as we speak. My thoughts:

1) Crank up the nuclear plants.

2) Let's let American farmers loose on making ethanol. I'll pay a few more bucks per tank to keep from funding American-hating-terrorists while helping American farmers and helping to create more American jobs...what red-blooded American wouldn't?

3) If we have unspent stimulus money, spend some on R&D for hydrogen and other energy technologies. We are innovative as hell. We can figure out the problems, the problem being is that the government stands in everyone's way of doing so.

 

it's just like every other resources out there. abundance is offset by inefficient technology and rarity promote alternatives. we'll find alternative fuel.

 

Well, does anyone truly believe the oil companies would tell us the truth as to how much easily accessible oil there is? Wether artificially inflated or not the concern over fossil fuel depletion should, hopefully, slow down our consumption. If that is really happening is difficult to tell. With all these "stats" and "studies" I just look out the window to check the smog and look around at the traffic for a best guess as to how much fuel we are burning. My guess is we are still burning it up pretty darn quickly. But I have not tried to convert my vehicle to propane, too inconvenient, or put expanding foam insulation in my walls. Or any of the other self help remedies, well I do drive less and slower, that is something. But is America still the bad guy? Are we still number one? Last I heard China passed us in fuel consumption recently. Anybody know if Al Gore is gonna try to talk them into slowing down?

 

I'm not sure how much easily accessible oil there still is, but I know that when I was in west Texas, I would regularly drive past places where "excess" natural gas that comes up with the oil was burned off. They really stand out at night, big tall chimney standing up from a small location in the middle of nowhere. Great big flame on top leaning in the wind, but never going out.

This is done to keep the prices high. Some wells get so much natural gas, that if the price were realistically attached to the supply & demand situation, ALOT fewer homes would be all-electric. Some wells only get "capped" when they're played out, because the gas would keep coming up if they didn't (and they don't want to have to deal with it because there is "too much," it's too cheap.) No one ever talks about it, and no one talks about using it.

 

I dont know if anything is running out but I woke up to the news that our local price jumped 22 cents over night.

 

Peak oil isn't just about oil running out, it's also about demand. The only reason prices have stabilized over the last year is that the world economy is down. The United States, for example, went from about 20.6 million barrels a day of oil consumption in 2007 to about 18.6 million barrels a day in 2009.

When the economy recovers--if it does--demand will return to previous or even higher levels, and the price will go up again.

What has brought much of this to a head is the demand placed on petroleum by countries such as China and India. They want to develop, that'll take energy, and there's only so much cheap oil to go around.

Yes, the prices will rise as the supply is squeezed. The big problem with that is the damage to the world economy. Those who say "I'll just pay more" are not realizing that oil is in almost everything, from the plastic bottle you buy your water in to the corn meal you're coating your chicken with.

Agriculture--heavily dependent upon petroleum.

Transportation--almost entirely dependent upon petroleum.

Plastics industry--well, what do you think?

Given the fragile state of the world economy, any recovery will place greater demands on petroleum stocks and production, driving up the price, and causing the recovery to hit headwinds.


BTW, the source of the above oil-usage data is here

 

That is my point exactly goose3. Prices did not stabilize, at least from my point of view. In Jan. of 2000 oil prices were $18bbl. Adjusting for inflation we are talking $28bbl+/-. All said and done if it was only lack of demand prices should have fallen to the mid $30's. Instead oil prices hit a low of $40bbl+/-. As of the this post oil prices are $79bbl.

My point is that we have set a new trading range for oil. And this may also answer the question why all of this is so important.

When the World economy starts to move how will we be able to compete. There is a very finite amount of oil production the World produces at any given time. If we look at daily world oil production in just 2000's....a time of Historic Oil prices. Oil traded as much 5 times as as when we entered the decade. But Oil production only increased by 5%.

This is from a World point of view. Why didn't OPEC glut the market to take advantage of the pricing. What about Chavez? The simple answer is that no one could. And currently no one has.

Why is oil important. Our Dollar is based on it. Our economy is based on it. Modern life is based on. It is easier to point out the things that aren't effected by oil. If the demand from Asia returns to pre crash levels how much oil is going to be available for the USA? We know we can no operate at 18 bbls down from 20bbls. For reference until 2007+/- China was on track to double there GDP....again....again. The reality is that the credit crash helped us out a lot. But the world is moving on.

On a side note Why are Gasoline prices remaining so flat in the past years. If they were dependent on Oil prices as we have all been told shouldn't we have seen $5 at the pump.

 

peak oil has been predicted every single decade since oil was discovered.....are we near it? I doubt it...but I do think we should still prepare for it.

 

Yeh, peak oil soon. Maybe 10 years?
Then expensive food.

 

we've reached the beginning of the end. ever see and NOTICE the gas company stating they're working to get oil out from deeper reserves? there's an obvious hint. it's drying up. it's time to change and break our dependence on oil! BEFORE PEAK OIL SLAPS US RIGHT IN THE FACE!

 

It's not that the gas companies are not getting oil at shallower depths. There are plenty of plays that are being discovered that are at shallow depths than before. The technology has been sky rocketing and with new drilling techniques we are able to produce oil in places we weren't before be it with deep wells or lateral holes. It's the easy producers that people are looking for. No one wants to invest millions of dollars and wait around for CO2 injection wells to work.