I think that realistically speaking, if such a quake happens out there, you pretty much nailed it (although I tend to think four months is optimistic). My brother lives in Bakersfield.

 

Four months is being optimistic for sure. Even smaller cities than mine will have to wait even longer.

I go to Bakersfield on a regular basis, as I live an hour away. The Lake Isabella dam has been cited numerous times for it's vulnerability. It has been recorded that a "medium" sized earthquake could break it. If it breaks, it has been said that it will flood all of Bakersfield, possibly Arvin, Delano and the surrounding cities. This will be a disaster because all of the stores, or most anyway, in Bakersfield will be flooded out and their goods will be spoiled.

I don't think anyone in our "government" sees this coming. When it comes, Katrina will look like a walk in the park.

 

We have not had a real earthquake on the west coast since 1906, except for Anchorage in 64, and that was tiny area wise. We have never had a big one encompassing the entire San Andreas fault. I was in LA in 71, and SF in 89, and worked in Mexico City for a very short period after the one there in 85. That one was not that big, the problem was fill, liquefaction and shoddy construction. If there is ever a really BIG one on the whole San Andreas fault, the death toll will be in the millions...

 

While the big one would be a disaster in SoCal, what should really worry you guys is the big one in NorCal.

Why?

Water:

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/sci....com/blog/science-scope/earthquake-could-threaten-californias-water-supply/7947

Without a water supply from the north, the south part of the state would have to relocate most of its residents for about five years.

It's not something rationing or anything would be solve. There would be few crops, and little water for the millions who live in the south.

 

The best guess predictions for a large quake in southern california, is a mag 8-8.5 running from Pasa Robles to the Salton Sea. This would also trigger movement on the San Jucinto and the Elsinore fault and perhaps the Garlock.

The only possible response I can suggest is to pack up what you can carry and leave.

Best route is east to US 395, then north to Bishop, then north east to Salt Lake City, Ut.

 

that would sure suck for people out there, but does anyone have a guess on what this would do to the rest of the USA, from refugees to financial to crops to whatever?

 

A quake of that size would bankrupt the US, it would destroy the current political and economic system. It would wipe out 1/10 of oil refining, 1/4 of food production, and kill a large number of people.

It would take the full might of the country and 10-12 yrs to rebuild the power/water/transportation system and make Southern California livable again.

A mag 8-8.5 quake on the San Andreas is a hundreds of times bigger than the 1906 San Fransico quake. The 1857 Ft Tejon quake is a better example for what is expected, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake.

 

The 1906 SF quake eyewitness accounts told in this site are terrifying. I cannot imagine the damage of such a quake occurring today:

http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/sfeq.htm

 

The 1906 SF quake eyewitness accounts told in this site are terrifying. I cannot imagine the damage of such a quake occurring today:

The fires. People underestimate the fires that will immediately follow. No emergency services, no water to put them out.

 

In 1906, My Grand Dad Was 8 Years Old

His family lived in Oakland Ca; across the bay from San Francisco. Years ago as we grand kids grew up, he would tell us stories of he and his family watching San Francisco burn for days with thick smoke covering the entire region and sometimes smelling like burning pigs. He also remembers the bay water level rising and falling several feet just after the quake.

It must have been quite an event for a 65 year old grand father to remember it so well as an 8 year old boy. He lived through it as Oakland for some reason escaped with only moderate damage. Also he talked about the shortage of water and food and eventually lots of uniformed soldiers on patrol....even in Oakland. He remembered being afraid.

I do not believe the Lake Isabella dam would totally collapse. Most of the models indicate perhaps some leakage, but it is an earth and rock filled dam which has had small leaks for years. Bakersfield is built upon an ice age dirt fan and would experience great ground motion. Tehachapi actually would be a good place to be. HB of CJ (old coot)

lived in Bako for 25 exciting years. Now live in SW OR. big difference let me tell you.

 

These are some great responses, guys (and gals)!

I believe that water treatment would not be possible after this type of disaster. The plants would not be able to operate with destroyed infrastructure and no power. Power plants would not last long, and several nuclear plants might even have problems (hopefully none big).

I just know that the Lake Isabella dam has been under scrutiny for a long time for it's infrastructure being weak, the Army Corp of Engineers has come on record often saying the dam is weak and may not survive anything larger than a 7.0-7.5 earthquake.

I also do not believe an earthquake has to hit right on top of the San Andreas fault. It has to be larger enough, however, to trigger it. A fault can be trigger even if the earthquake is not near it, but somehow is large enough, deep enough and lasts long enough to set it off.

Speaking of which: It also depends how long the "Big One" lasts and how deep it is. The following "smaller" 6-7.0 earthquakes, depending on how long and deep they are, can be even deadlier since, at that point, most infrastructure will be destroyed and people will be "wandering" about with no clue what to do next.

I think this would have a huge impact on the economy. As much in debt as California is, as liberal as we are and as stupid as we are, it is said that if California was it's own country then it would be the 10th largest economy in the world. That could easily plunge the U.S into an economic collapse. The surrounding states such as Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Washington could have problems from people trying to escape California. Remember, roads WILL NOT be passable after a series of earthquakes like this. You will not be able to leave unless you are just fortunate to find some roads that were not as destroyed as others.

- Straight Forward Prepper

 

Realistically an earthquake of that magnitude would be a disaster and a blessing. A disaster because of loss of life, disruption of water/gas/ electricity and more. But the infrastructure of California was never designed for it's current uses and urban renovations have been stalled for decades resulting in bottlenecks in just about every public service. Most of California is a desert and relies on water from outside sources. Population isn't really a problem but housing is. Most residential houses will survive the initial shocks, but fire and water damage would be substancial. As for an exodus, not likely. More likely an influx of more people. California has one of the biggest economies in the world and devastating earthquakes are relatively rare. Since it is located on the coast, many goods,foods and fuel can be shipped to it's ports. Highways have always been a problem but the earthquake would lead to the renovation era of it's major cities services and economy. There will be some instances of crime but the need for workers to make repairs will provide more attractive opportunities. Who will provide the funds? Probably donations from Multi-billionaires, loans from the biggest corporations, oil rich countries who would like to improve their relationships with the U.S. or special privileges. The down time may be a 2-6 months. The renovations 2-15 years. Death total- too unpredictable to say but much lower than earthquakes of China and Middle. My personal biggest concern would be going long periods with out drinking water during summer with no AC.

 

Orange County here. Reading this thread with a lot of interest.

 

Politically it would be a blessing. Human lives loss would be a tragedy. Personally, I think if the big one was to hit and cause wide spread damage then things would go south in a hurry. I think the damage the the people would cause after the fact would be the worse. Rape, murder, looting, and gang wars would cause thousands of death. The best thing for you to do is move now while you have the chance. If you don't, and are there when the big one happens I would have a couple of off road gators or something similar and get out of dodge as quick as possible. The gators could get you far but I would walk if I had too.

 

I understand being a prepper means imaging multiple scenarios but many of the replies here are from fear mongers, who've seen too many Hollywood films and romanticize about the worst in humanity taken over fore ever and ever.. Take your medication and do your research. There has been major earthquakes in Countries far less prepared and it didn't result in TEOTWAWKI. Mexico had major destruction and all the gangs didn't immediately take control. So Did China, Japan, Turkey, Chile, New Zealand, Haiti. So why will it happen now. There are also tornadoes/ and floods in the mid west, Hurricanes on the east coast every year and in most cases people stayed and rebuilt. People in California have families, friends, work, property and an earthquake won't make them jump in their wagon and head on out to Utah, where they have no family friends, work etc. It just won't happen. Now maybe if the Nuclear power plants started to melt down, they would consider it.

 

Great post Nobel. This forum is notorious for wild speculation and fear mongering. Not to say I don't prep heavily for disaster, but death tolls in the millions? Nope.

Comparing our current infrastructure and building codes with the 1906 SF quake is absurd. Building codes are infinitely safer now. I do believe "the big one" will be a disaster, but no more so than all of the devistating storms on the east coast or tornadoes in the Midwest. It will suck, but we will survive and rebuild...just like everyone else.

 

I don't think a earthquake of 8.0 will be as damaging as you think OP. Earthquakes would probably be mainly in northern and southern CA the central valley has been stable for recorded history so no problem there. As for buildings. Skyscrapers and other buildings must be built to resist earthquakes and are regularly inspected. I worked in a grocery store and we had yearly inspections of our safety equipment. Public structures are built to withstand earthquakes for a X amount of time before they need to be inspected and re-certified, they look for corrosion and other things that may destabilize a building.
Now the dam if it breaks will create a initial flood but will soon create a river channel or follow some old channel, so not much threat there.
The biggest threat I see will be not enough police, firefighters, and other workers. With California coming close to bankruptcy there have been cutbacks that have left many organization mere skeletons of their former selves. So looting will probably happen with a flash mob speed and mentality, riots would only occur if food and water were scarce for a extended period. Deaths from natural causes that normally would have been prevented from quick action from paramedics will rise. The biggest threat would be if a fire. If a large fire caught and spread throughout the city major loss of life and property would occur. Loss of electricity would cause problems as most people are not prepared to live without refrigerators. Improper food storage and preparation would result in lots of food poisoning, that coupled with probable loss of sewage and potable water may result in a small epidemic, but that is a remote chance.
Food will be a issue but the guberment has learned from Katrina and would rush something there quickly if only just to look good. But the only thing that would keep food from going to where it was needed would be with business as usual would be if the roads were ruined beyond recognition, or at least some major portions. There are about 5-6 major food distribution warehouses in California and they have enough food to feed California for at least a month without resupply. I have been to one of these distribution centers for a job interview and let me tell you football stadiums have nothing on these, they are about 1 kilometer long and about 3 stories high these things are massive and store a lot of food, water, and other things.
So I don't think a earthquake would cause too much damage or at least nothing long-term (over 6 months) but hey these are just my thoughts based on research and my own observations it isn't Gospel or anything. I'm just glad I got out of California when I did.

 

Good thoughts!

I think my mentality is just to prepare for the worst, and I won't be disappointed.

Another thing though is that when a lot of the buildings, especially skyscrapers, were built, the threat of an 8.0-8.5 earthquake was not present. We've been overdue for a long time, but I don't think anyone 25-30 years ago ever thought an earthquake like that would ever hit. I could be wrong, but I just think an 8.0 shaking for possibly 10 seconds (LONG time) could topple them. I might be wrong, though.

I'm also not so sure about the Isabella dam following a channel. The Isabella dam, if broken, would just pour out into the nearest city (Bakersfield and surrounding Kern county), as I don't believe there is a channel outside the parameters of the dam walls externally.

These are good thoughts!

Thanks,
- Straight Forward Prepper

 

Unfortunately, recent experience with very large quakes around the pacific ring of fire show an even more terrifying reality. These very long faults build up stress allong many hundreds, even thousands of miles of the fault, and then release it in a quake event that moves the length of that section like a zipper.

For instance, let's look at what a person living in a Upland Ca (suburb of LA) would experience if a 400 miles section of the San Andreas ruptured starting near Brawley, Ca (just south of the Salton Sea) and the quake continued north to Paso Robles.

At first he would feel a modest rolling motion caused by the surface waves reaching him from 150 miles away.
Then as the quake progressed further north along the fault, the shaking would increase.
As the quake reached the Cajon pass and the Wrightwood area, the shaking would be so intense he would be thrown to the ground. The crappy apartment I used to rent in Upland would collapse.
Now as the quake continued north and west toward the Carrizo plane he finally sees the shaking taper off.
When the fault dies off after reaching the wine country east of Paso Robles the shaking finally stops.

The very largest quakes can cause stress release along 4-600 miles of a fault and the shaking lasts for 3-5 minutes. Imagine being tossed around for 300 continuous seconds.

Compare that with the 2004 Sumatra quake (mag 8.8-9) which shook the area for 8-10 minutes.

 

3-5 minutes? Wow, that would certainly be a catastrophe even worse than I imagined.

Still think skyscrapers could withstand that? I think it would be very unlikely they could withstand an 8.0+ magnitude shake for almost 5 minutes. It's kind of like shaking underneath a table when you have dominoes on top. Even if they're stacked well, they're eventually going to fall.

My $0.02 anyway. I hope this never happens, as we would see disaster, martial law and crime at an epidemic that would make Chicago look like Fort Knox.

 

The quake would be a real pain in the hind quarters...Now just how much food,water,medicine,weapons,and ammo do you have put away??? Its not enough!!! triple the amounts might give you a slim chance of making it out in one piece..

 

I think it was the history channel that had a special about the 1906 quake. They said that there was so much damage that they enacted very strict earth quake resistant building codes to hopefully prevent the whole city from being destroyed again, but with so many permits being sought they suspended the new building codes and allowed building pretty much however you wanted up until the 1950's.

Look at how many houses in SF are built over their garage. That scares me.

There's been a lot of activity on the ring of fire and I think the eastern side from Alaska to Chile has potential for some huge slippage.

Once one part slips, large sections of the rest of it will slip over the next few weeks.

 

If you live in fault areas, NEVER live in the type of apartments with open parking underneath. They are all death traps in a major quake. Personal S&R experience, 72 hours straight, 1989...

 

This Thread Very Important And Thank You

About the only thing that I can add is to increase your water supply and expect to be somewhat banged up and slightly injured. Medical kits are a good idea. Forget the 3 day emergency kits.....consider water and food for at least 30 days...maybe longer.

Can we even imagine 10,000 dead? How about 100,000 injured enough to require a hospital? How about ONE MILLION people shakened up and in mental shock for hours or days? How about $TRILLIONS$ in property loss?

The mind boggles. Or at least my feeble mind. I'm retarded, er retired from Bakersfield Fire and the op plans we had for "the big one" were a strategic and tactical joke and were politically watered down to "save the public's distress".

The point here is to let people know that the government will NOT be there to help you. YOU MUST be responsible for yourself and your family. Nobody else is going to help you. Heaven help CA in the big one--because government will not.

HB of CJ (retarded old coot) FF, PM, RN

 

About the only thing that I can add is to increase your water supply and expect to be somewhat banged up and slightly injured. Medical kits are a good idea. Forget the 3 day emergency kits.....consider water and food for at least 30 days...maybe longer.

Can we even imagine 10,000 dead? How about 100,000 injured enough to require a hospital? How about ONE MILLION people shakened up and in mental shock for hours or days? How about $TRILLIONS$ in property loss?

The mind boggles. Or at least my feeble mind. I'm retarded, er retired from Bakersfield Fire and the op plans we had for "the big one" were a strategic and tactical joke and were politically watered down to "save the public's distress".

The point here is to let people know that the government will NOT be there to help you. YOU MUST be responsible for yourself and your family. Nobody else is going to help you. Heaven help CA in the big one--because government will not.

HB of CJ (retarded old coot) FF, PM, RN

I think 10,000 would be a good outcome to be honest. I also think that 30 days would be JUST a warm up. If 10,000 are dead, there is no power, martial law, rioting, looting, no goods or services, no water treatment, out of control fires and aftershocks, then you'll be looking at 4 months MINIMUM. It could very well be longer.

Let's not forget: It took FEMA 7 days to get water to the super dome...

A catastrophe like this is unlike anyone anywhere has ever seen. Other countries would probably have to send personnel just to try and meet the emergency demands. Talk about an absolute nightmare. No clean water, smoke-filled skies, non-operational equipment, impassable roads and so on. If that wouldn't wake people up to prepping, nothing in this world will. Unfortunately, by that time, it would be FAR too late.

- Straight Forward Prepper

 

I have three plans for dealing with a quake of this magnitude.

1) I moved 125 miles north to the high desert, on the North American side of the fault, 28 yrs ago.
2) I own a diesel pickup and a 5th wheel trailer with enough fuel to reach Wyoming.
3) I own a ranch in the Ozarks and I am moving when I retire late next year.

I never did figure out how to survive a mag 8-8.5 quake while living in LA.

 

It sounds like you have a pretty sound plan.

There is only one thing I see wrong with it, though. By mentioning that you have a diesel pickup truck, you're assuming that roads will not be impassable. With an earthquake of that magnitude, not only will roads not be passable, but most popular roads will have broken down debris blocking them. Depending on how it turns out, people may have abandoned their vehicles on roads since the roads became impassable while they were on them.

Do you have a plan for backup power? Water treatment? Additional gas/diesel (gas stations wont be able to operate without power)? Protection while you're traveling (assuming you can....with a vehicle anyway)?


Thanks for chiming in!
- Straight Forward Prepper