I much prefer the word "Horrific".

The single best plan is to totally avoid it. And the only way to avoid it, is to have zero human contact. And yes it can be done. And historically through every event like this, removing one's self till the problem is resolved has proved the safest and most prudent survival method. There are thousands of examples.

 

SHTF implies short term, like Katrina. A few nasty people, even nasty cops.

TEOTWAWKI could be completely different. Very nasty people within a year or two. I want two years worth of food and water (don't have that yet) to hopefully not have to go outside and make my presence know until a bigger die-off of mean people.

 

SHTF implies short term, like Katrina. A few nasty people, even nasty cops.

TEOTWAWKI could be completely different. Very nasty people within a year or two. I want two years worth of food and water (don't have that yet) to hopefully not have to go outside and make my presence know until a bigger die-off of mean people.

I disagree with your 'dictionary'. SHTF could mean either.

 

In a prolonged SHTF I agree that it will be very brutal for many Americans, especially in the more densely populated areas.

People have become too dependent on conveniences and if the trucks stop moving for long enough I'm not sure the majority can adapt quick enough to survive. This will of course drive humans to their core animal instincts and it won't be pretty.

I think those that weather the storm will start building communities again, because no matter how delusional the majority become about the purpose or meaning of life we are still also social animals.

Our ability to socialize complex ideas, coordinate and group up to achieve goals is ingrained in us, it is arguably the sole reason we rule this planet and it is a good thing.

There have been studies that show humans with good close relationships are happier and healthier then those without relationships or bad relationships. More then money, more then fame, more then social status on the internet, your relationships with family and close friends is a key ingredient to happiness and that gives me hope for the species.

So long term after a SHTF scenario, if you can weather it, you will find some of the best humans you could ever hope to meet.

 

If the event is sudden, the breakdown of social order will be sudden as well. Let a massive loss of power hit as in a nuclear EMP or solar CME and the first 90 days will be unimaginable. Best to find a secure place to hide till it is over. After that, I look for slow re-socialization to occur, starting in small rural communities. Something similar to the first pioneers moving into Indian territory. It would be many many years and deaths for urban areas to recover some sense of civilization.

 

A time, times, and an half

.....Let a massive loss of power hit as in a nuclear EMP or solar CME and the first 90 days will be unimaginable. Best to find a secure place to hide till it is over.....

Intend to go black, not just gray. Severe noise and light discipline. For how long? Maybe long enough to interrupt the growing season, to prevent gardening for food for a year or more.

42 months, storage and growing and storing again. It's personal, and the length comes from revelatory visions in scripture. It's not sure, and I don't know, but we use it as a basis to plan from, Just as EMP is a model, a structure to build plans from.

The myths, imaginings, and rationalizing can lead us to all sorts of perspectives on here and now, much less in the future. We often don't agree on the past.....

 

Mod Edit

but yes, there will be a lot of people faced with the most basic needs for survival, with no hope of a future holding the quality of life they have lived in the past. Even good people will be faced with hard choices on how to deal with others in order to protect themselves, their family, etc.

I've seen people come together in the worst of times, displaying incredible humanity and sacrifice for each other and i'll continue to hold out hope, and plan to be a participant in those scenarios.

that said, just watching the recent video footage of Myrtle Beach behavior in "normal days" let's me know that part of my preps should include location that is away from areas that typically have badly behaving people, and the supplies that allow me to not have to go to those areas for food, etc...and the ability to deter/turn back/eliminate threats of people that want to make the hike out to my place and bring their violence with them.

so, yes, your OP is correct in many ways.. I have complete confidence in some people behaving badly , but I will still hold out hope and plans for my belief that there are many that will choose good...just have to make sure the good are strong enough to deal with the bad.

 

I have had hopes that there will still be some cooperation, some sharing. Even in the worst situations. But over the past few years, I have become convinced that WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Ironically, it will be the horrors of the Coming Chaos that will bring about cooperation and sharing, in order to successfully defend life and possessions. Neighborhood Protection Plans (as described in A Failure of Civility) will be what is required, as individual homeowners and even some extended families gathered together likely will not have the firepower nor manpower to face persistent marauders.

Right now, those who prep with enough food, water, ammo and other possibles to support a Mutual Assistance Group, are the ones who are on the winning track. Each of us do not have to think in terms of supplying a great many, but it is certainly best to think beyond our immediate needs.

My disclaimer, of course, being that this is the way I envision events playing out, and this is the practical course I am trying to adhere to. I understand and accept that each of you may harbor vastly different points of view, and I have no need or desire to attempt to change anyone's thinking, particularly if someone else has devised a plan going forward that they feel suits them perfectly. Carry on, brother.

I should add that the only people whose POVs I will attempt to change will be those who intend to take what is mine or to cause harm to me or my family. At that point, my opposition to their plan becomes adamant and strenuous.

 

Great reply to the "other side of the coin".

With great suffering will come the opportunity for Great Compassion and Cooperation. What can tear us apart can also bind us tighter and make us stronger.

I for one hope I am up to the "Tempering".

 

I remember one night I was dispatched to a power outage to help the power company find the cause. Within 30 minutes of the power being out we had to divert to fights in the street, because the residents had come outside.

In 30 minutes, that lower income neighborhood had violence in the streets.

 

I remember one night I was dispatched to a power outage to help the power company find the cause. Within 30 minutes of the power being out we had to divert to fights in the street, because the residents had come outside.

In 30 minutes, society in that (lower incoming neighborhood) had broken down to violence in the streets.

We have a fairly recent example of what we can expect from New Orleans in 2005. Now imagine THAT in every major metropolitan center nation wide.

If that doesn't give you pause, it should.

 

In certain cities and other places people already act like animals. Shooting, stabbing, drug overdose all happen on a daily basis in large cities.

Avoiding those populations is the key to survival for sure

 

I agree that in cities it will be bad.

I question the increase in drug use. You need a stable society for drug trafficking to occur. Post-SHTF I do not picture drugs making the 5,000+ mile trip to get here.

 

1. My first thought was that there thoughts on this all over the board as there have been many threads on this in the past.

2. That was closely followed by the thought that a sizable percentage of the population are already behaving like animals right now...before SHTF.

So, yeah, there will be a lot of 2-legged animals.

 

1. My first thought was that there thoughts on this all over the board as there have been many threads on this in the past.

When the Titanic went down in 1912, it was very much "women and children first". Most of the men remaining on the ship. Scared, probably, but still bravely accepting their fate. Knowing that only x number of people could get into the boats and be saved. Would we see that same sort of behavior today? I don't think so.

What I am proposing in this thread---and is different from the other threads on this subject--is that in today's world things would be far different. Changes in morality and cultural norms and acceptable behavior would IMMEDIATELY turn a SHTF or TEOTWAWKI situation into a free-for-all of unrestrained greed and violence.

And I'm not talking about this only coming from the "usual suspects". It will come from ordinarily "respectable" types. People who have lived their lives (and gotten ahead in the world) by cultivating a "save my a**, and to heck with everyone else!" type of attitude.

That "respectable" suburban middle-manager or company vice-president, will instantly turn into a feral beast if his family--or he himself--needs something that you've got. And if you come between him and something that he wants, the more fool you.

 

My opinion (and nothing more than that) is that, in the immediate aftermath of any widespread catastrophic event, anyone who is capable of doing so will start by taking stock of themselves and their family. Those who are generally neighborly and non-violent will "come up for air" to see how those in their vicinity fared, what the PD/FD/government response is, etc. This is when I would suspect the true bad apples to be sizing up targets, measuring the aforementioned "official" response and gauging what they can get away with at minimal risk to themselves. In some areas, I expect it would take days before any truly egregious activity occurred, but in those areas where there is a history of looting, flash mobs and such, it could be just a couple of hours. When your entire neighborhood is visible out your window or from a fourth-floor balcony, it takes a lot less time to get a feel for the situation than if your nearest neighbor is a quarter-mile or more up a gravel road.

Although I live in a fairly densely populated suburban residential area, I am not on the "main drag" or adjacent to any high-value targets that would offer instant gratification to looters. Nobody is going to stray more than two steps onto my property without making themselves an obvious intruder. What concerns me far more, having survived the first hours or days with my family intact, would be the response within the neighborhood by those who have started running out of supplies, have some sort of in-home complications (gas leak, backed up water, fire) or are no longer mentally/emotionally keeping it together. I have small children, so I have no warm fuzzy delusions of an entirely happy home, but I'm thinking of teenagers with too much time on their hands, older folks who have "had enough" and anyone dependent on medications to keep body and/or mind functioning fully.

 

After Sandy, I took a squad of soldiers to Coney Island to deliver supplies to the elderly in the projects.

There was some semblance of order, supplies were handed out, a R and B music group actually brought their band bus down and held a cookout. Law enforcement and military were around, and things stayed calm.

I have former police colleagues with homes on Rockaway Island who I called several days after my mission. There, the cops and Guard were no where to be seen.

Each evening, when the 8 to 4 cops got home from work, they joined groups of residents patrolling on foot. Many residents did not have guns so they brought bats, torque wrenches, even a guy with a bow and arrow.

The thugs would show up looking to loot, and the residents would just start hitting the cars with whatever they had.

Scary stuff.

 

It's hard to apply a "universal picture" to anything.

In some areas.... you are absolutely right.
In others... particularly "respectable poor" areas like the one I moved to; people are ALREADY used to pulling together for mutual support.

 

People are animals *now*, in some places. It is said that SHTF peels away the thin veneer of civilization, and I believe it is true. This is why it is *absolutely imperative* that you surround yourself with people you can trust today. Get to know your neighbors and build a rapport. Have a plan to bring your family in if they live nearby. In a world of Tribes, you want your tribe to be big enough.

 

I'm just gonna throw this out there.

Chicago without ROL. Just chew that one over a bit.

 

Chicago officials announced Wednesday that a fleet of plows was working around the clock to clear more than 18 inches of fresh bullet casings that had blanketed the metropolitan area overnight.

 

If there is a prolonged event of deprivation of necessary resources (such as power grid down, no energy, no oil, no gas, etc.) I do believe it will get very very violent.

Consider that the nation has less than 1,000,000 combined military and reserve and national guard. And somewhere around 100,000 total law enforcement.

The nation has 325,000,000 people. Even if 1% are prone to violence, that's pretty bad and is 3 times as many holding the line.

It will boil down to self reliance against violence.

In the last few years, we've gotten a taste of lawless violence. Ferguson, Baltimore, various other cities. But it's not just the last few years. The last few decades many cities have experienced riots and looting, like LA.

Now imagine this happening in all cities, big and small, at the same time. No power. No police patrols. Too much violence to deal with.

I don't predict that it will happen, but it surely is foreseeable and possible. I'd suggest foods and water in stock for at least 1 week, maybe more. And guns and ammo. Plenty of these.

 

Those numbers are not exactly right. State and local law enforcement is just a bit over 1 million. Active+reserve military is just over 2 million. Still, that's less than 1% of the total population, and much of the capability and effectiveness of a modern military or police force is in its mobility, supply chain, and command/control, which would be weakened, damaged, or even eliminated during a major crisis. Depending on the severity of the disaster, I would expect some desertions to rejoin family. The remainder would probably be focused around key areas, like their base of operation, major routes of travel, and other areas of value.

If heavily concentrated in the cities quickly enough they might be able to bring at least some areas under control, or at least create the equivalent of "green zones".

But I don't disagree with your general point.

 

There are many low-lifes that currently live their lives with no regard to rule of law. There are even more friends & family of these people that know what they do and yet do nothing to stop or change them. In a true TEOTWAWKI event it is but a small step for these friends & family to step across the line and join the ranks of the low-lifes.

The problem won't double over night, it will be more like 10x or 20x as bad overnight.

 

This thread prompted a thought - Has any considered bugging out across the border, north to canada where very few if any people have guns and therefore much less likely to be a threat or at least a threat that would not easily get turned away with a gun?

 

Um, maybe you should just think about the logistics involved on that and it'll probably answer your own questions.

 

The human mammal is an inherently social creature that functions at optimum working within a small social band or tribe to which it is emotionally attached (i.e. the small town morality described previously).

What science has shown time and again is that cooperative socialization breaks down when mammals are placed in confined overpopulated groups with limited resources (i.e. too-many-rats-in-the-cage) when there is no benefit gained from being part of a collective and all others in the group become purely competition (which is exactly what we have now in many areas in the context of our living conditions and even the culture). Interesting to note- in these studies, scientists have induced and witnessed behavior not normally seen in the same mammal species under healthy conditions; murder and torture, infanticide, rape, cannibalism, self-mutilation, increased instances of homosexuality and sexual deviancy, incest........... Sound familiar?

So yes, things are very ugly now (in places), and things will be even uglier during a SHTF event, but that is also the exact environment needed to manifest the very best "humanity" has to offer. Do not allow your fear of the human animal to keep you from becoming a part of and embracing a community or tribe in the PAW- because that's exactly what you'll need to survive it.

 

All this talk of "the cities, the cities"....


I couldn't care less about "the cities", and they have damn few impacts on my daily life.

 

Except, oh, I don't know...

... supply of electricity, supply of food/goods, shipping hubs, supply of most law enforcement, government/economic hubs, importer of many goods and supplies which probably do impact most people in the states (if you are a consumer of goods and services or if you work in an industry that provides goods and services, the nearby large cities probably are a consumer of whatever you produce), etc... Most shipping lanes (roads, interstates, ports) run through major cities and if those shut down, you run out of many supplies... and so does everyone else in the aggregate.

If you don't think a big meltdown in the cities will bleed into the rural areas with secondary effects, I think you need to re-assess.

 

As New York City turns increasingly Hipster, and formerly devastated slums become gentrified, small towns and cities all across upstate New York are inheriting the excess baggage.

It will not only be in the cities.

Before I moved to this area, there were floods that cut off many communities from each other.

One village with no police department was cut off from the interstate and therefore could not receive State Police response.

Things got very weird there for a few nights.

 

I grew up listening to stories from my parents and older relatives who lived through the Depression. Back when there was no welfare, unemployment insurance, etc. People who grew up in a subsistence lifestyle mixed with moral teaching. Everyone was more or less in the same boat. My parents grew up in fishing outports, lived hand to mouth from the sea and the garden. Hand me down clothes were made to last through several kids in the family, etc.

Today, we are so for removed from that way of living, for the most part. More people are living in cities, towns and suburbs, all highly dependent upon the grid. In a way, people still do live hand to mouth, but they don't know it. That truck brings everything to a store and most of us drive there to buy it. Disrupt that grid and it quickly shudders to a halt. I drove 18-wheeler for a major national grocery company for 25 years. We had periods where a blackout shut everything down. Tons and tons of food, but not going anywhere because there was no electricity to power the distribution system. As a teenager I worked for the same company as a store clerk and remember the manual paper order book to replenish shelves. Now it is all computerized; very efficient but also very tenuous. A terrorist event, a solar flare, electrical storm or ice storm and it takes things down. So far we have always been lucky and it all came back online at some point.

I suppose what scares us the most is a scenario like something out of "Patriots" or some other fictional disaster novel. Something disrupts the normal day to day rhythms and it doesn't start again. We can cope with a region down for a while; in recent memory the events mentioned above. Forces from outside can assist. But when there is no "outside" from whence help may arrive, you are on your own. We all have our own particular nightmare; myself, I fear the collapse of the electrical grid in a major way, to such an extent that it is widespread and persistent in nature. That would be a disaster as ominous in implications as an asteroid strike, in my opinion. Imagine a natural or man-made EMP taking down a national grid.

I am fairly new to the movement and so I am still early days. I can't plan for everything at once, so I am starting with the more likely to occur but smaller in implication events, preparing for them and then gradually working my way up. A few years ago I was only mildly interested in this sort of thing, but events like Katrina and the massive electrical blackout here in Canada that took down a large grid in Quebec and left people in some areas without electricity for two months in winter opened my eyes to my personal vulnerability.

However, I am a keen observer of society and have been all my life, but even so I am stunned at how society has changed in terms of manners, customs and the like. My father would've smacked me if I didn't get up and offer a lady or elder person a seat on a bus. About fifteen years ago I was injured at work and had to travel into the city for pain management therapy. It was too painful to drive so I commuted by train and city transit: Most people just sitting there, wrapped up in their own little worlds, reading, listening to music and nobody offering to share a seat with a pregnant woman or old person. When I did so, in spite of my painful condition, I discern looks of sneering contempt from some people. It is a selfish world today, and the perfect symbol of this age is the selfie stick, a device which allows self absorbed people to photograph their favourite subject.

The rate of dependency upon food stamps, welfare and the like seems to be at an all time high, and I am stunned that the most agriculturally productive societies in the world need food banks. And yet even poor people today, thanks in part to generous welfare systems and various forms of wealth confiscation and redistribution, suffer from diseases of overindulgence: overweight, diabetes, etc. Heaven forbid if the gravy train stops running and they have to shift for themselves. Do you remember the YouTube videos of welfare queens hollering that their babies aint been fed since breakfast because the EBT card system went down? They feel entitled to demand that others feed their families. You just know what will happen if that system goes down and stays down.

How it goes down will vary by local circumstance. Large cities with significant areas of blight will be hell holes; in many ways they already are, only imagine it getting worse. I think people who are good in their core will try to remain such, and evil thinking people will only get worse. I'm approaching retirement in a decade or so and my hope is to get out of my suburban home to a rural area, with a larger piece of land so I can grow even more food than I currently do. I am learning skills of self sufficiency and doing what I can to prepare for various contingencies. But in the meanwhile I will live and be as good a person as I can, try to pass on the message to others and quietly mind my own business and learn while busily squirreling away what I can.

My personal plan, such as it is, involves family and coming together if there should be a challenge. Take care of our old folks and our youth. To me the prepping lifestyle makes perfect sense. It squares with my morality; I do not wish to ever be the man who has to steal from others to feed himself and his family because he was too lazy and self indulgent to prepare during the good times.

 

Scary thought, just looked up how many cities in the US with 500,000 plus population. This is not counting adjacent communities connected to the city. Over 300 Potential Katrina's all hoppin at the same time. This is assuming a complete grid down, no power no water no food, no cavalry coming down the road. In fact I would guess, once it sunk into the population that the power was never going back on, that the food truck was never bringing food, and there never will be anymore hot running showers. **** is going to get real very fast.

 

Man it is so brutal. I like to retain my morality but I feel like I'll be killed off in a shtf scenario for trying to help people.

Sent from my SGH-M919V using Tapatalk

 

Remember the famine in Egypt. God warned Joseph that it was coming and Joseph bought and stored grain for the Pharaoh. During the famine, Joseph SOLD this grain to the citizens. He didn't give it away.

The dilemma you bring up is one my wife and I talk about regularly. Who do you help? When? How? When do you say NO?

 

I, for one, do not under estimate the Canadian Armed Forces. Years ago we had a company from Prince Patricia Canadian Light Infantry attached to our battalion, they were some excellent and exceedingly tough troops.

 

Absolutely right...I was just going to answer this post as well........

Ridiculous thought pattern........"Lets just go north into Canada...we have guns, they don't..."

A really starnge comment from someone that OBVIOUSLY hasn;t been North of the Border..

First...GUNS LIVE HERE...lots of them....EVERYWHERE...except in the Libtard, snowflake filled cities.....rural Canada?...sorry man...there are guns a plenty and people here ALL know how to use them...rural Canadian have grown up shooting, hunting etc.

Canadians don;t drive away with guns in our pick up truck windows, most don't make a big issue out of it...but they are here......and so is ammo storage too.....

IF you;d like to come up and relocate yourself into one of our cities?...sure, help yourself...you'll love the mass of immigrants that fill the cities....we are VERY cosmopolitan that way...lol

come out in to the rural areas and try to take or make yourself "at home"...and you'd have issues right away......

And Old Canuck is 100% right...TOP 5 SNIPERS in the world?...3 are Canadian...ONE is American and ONE Brit...... Canadians are number 1, 3 and 4...Brit is Number 2 and the Yank is number 5

The Yankees tried in 1812 - 1814 to "take Canada"...got their azzes handed to them...and not once where they able to capture and keep ANY Canadian territory....think "White House"


Just don;t underestimate Canada.......American troops that have served beside Canadian ones overseas NEVER have negative to say, and would certainly substantiate the Canadians ability and will to fight.

 

ummm, you're little thinned skin eh??

I've been through your country twice and will do my best to never go back through again due to so many rude people, especially at the border crossing. But the beauty of the countryside is amazing. And you offer absolutely no good reason for me to want to move there and loose the freedoms I have down here. If your country is so great how come you dont have the illegal immigration problems we have? Why do so many of your people come down here to use our medical facilities?

I dont understand why you dragged the military into this conversation but we have the strongest military in the world and you dont. That being said I'm a veteran and have great respect for all those who have served or currently serving.

As far as the recent sniper shot, he was using a high tech laser scope with built in computer that did all the calculations, all he had to do was put the cross hairs on the target. Still an impressive shot but the computer did everything except pull the trigger... Which Country has the most sniper kills??