The track doesn't seem like it is changing all that much on this for being an unnamed storm for a week now. It looks like it will hit around Panama City to somewhere in the big bend area. It really will depend on how the Low Front to the west moves in and how much the High Front to the East keeps it from moving. The big thing will be how fast it can develop in the gulf. So far, they are saying it will move fast through the gulf, hopefully keeping it from turning into a major hurricane. But you never really know how fast it will develop in those warm waters there now. We should have a clear picture late tonight or tomorrow morning. Either way, it doesn't hurt to get ready now because the one thing that hasn't changed is that it is coming.

 

Well, I have plenty of diesel fuel for the primary genny and will look at stocks of ethanol free gasoline for the backup. The wife is up North with her family so, it will just be the hound and me unless, Tallahassee gets hit and I may have a house full of college students....LOL. My niece is in school there and I told her if she needs to bug out, her friends can come too....whoopsie.

 

You all getting ready for some wind and rain on Thursday and Friday?

CBS 46 is forecasting +5" of rain in the Helen area in Northeast GA along with sustained +40mph winds.

 

You all getting ready for some wind and rain on Thursday and Friday?
View attachment 585782
CBS 46 is forecasting +5" of rain in the Helen area in Northeast GA along with sustained +40mph winds.

You know there are other threads for this storm.....

 

Looks like it could be a doozy. I don't get too excited until we hear Cat 3, but they are forecasting that it could be a 5. We do not need that here in Florida.

 

I choose not to forcibly expose myself to earthquakes, hurricanes or tornadoes. This is part of the reasoning behind Walsenburg, Colorado as my retirement location.

 

Panhandle has always been a hurricane magnate, hopefully this thing hits the Yucatan peninsula and weakens.

 

 

My brother's in the panhandle. He did not know; so I gave him a heads up. He lives in a very old trailer.

 

Seems to be a trend in this area... Not talking about it.

 

Still not even named,yet the potential seems there.
Yesterday people crying fear mongering at mention of cat 2,now 3 seems realistic,and 5 not out of the realm.
Looks west of my neck of the Gulf,yet the strongest quadrant is the NE.
Still have 48 hours to bring in the umbrellas and grab some more beer,,yep...hmm..I think that's it.
Glad it wasn't last week,tides were high with the full moon.

 

My inlaws are nay-sayers... even after living through michael, don't believe this will be anything by thursday since it's still not named.

Makes me so mad, and I think that will add to the potential devastation since it doesn't seem to be taken seriously despite the potential here.

I won't say much on this, but here's the aircraft log. I think it is odd that despite flying through areas of convection and thunderstorms at no time on the whole trip did the aircraft record any surface wind speed

 

As of 5:00 PM today, 9/23 it is forecast to hit the Big Bend as a Cat 2.
Wind and rain easily as far away as Jacksonville and the east coast.
We are in the NE of the state, above Jacksonville on the Georgia border.

 

Hoping our members there are are prepared and will remain safe and not too inconvenienced. Best of luck to get through without damage. Sometimes I like the desert...

 

I am seeing it hitting in the big bend area, likely between Apalachicola and Stienhatchee at a CAT3, some are saying it could go up to a CAT5. If it takes it time going through the gulf like it has in the western Caribbean, it could reach that level.

 

Looks like I'll be on the dirty side here in South Georgia. I'll move the diesel genny into position tomorrow. I think I'll install the remote start/stop switch in the house before we get hit. Then I won't need to go out onto the porch to start or stop it.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (noaa.gov)

 

I am in the AL/FL/GA border and shouldn't have too much to worry about. I think? Still a little early, but so far it seems to be drifting east a little bit every day.

 

sustained winds of over 34 knots for several mintues at 2230-2236

NWS reported not having winds sustained over 34 knots, only a gust, which looks like a 6 min gust.... so this remains a depression, not a tropical storm.

Don't know.

 

sustained winds of over 34 knots for several mintues at 2230-2236

NWS reported not having winds sustained over 34 knots, only a gust, which looks like a 6 min gust.... so this remains a depression, not a tropical storm.

The chart you are looking at is winds aloft, tropical storms are measured by ground level (33’) winds, which are estimated as 10% lower over the ocean ( or similar LARGE body of water.)

1 minute is the US definition of sustained winds for measuring tropical storms. Most countries follow this, but normal weather systems require 10 minutes to declare it a sustained wind (Everyone follows this.)

 

NWS Cone Warning 09-23-2024:

 

I'm keeping my eye on this one. I generally don't get concerned below a CAT 3 but this will likely be that or higher. I'm only 17 miles from the west coast and the wind field is projected to be huge. Even if it goes past me and hits the panhandle at bare minimum I expect to loose power and have a lot of yard clean up. I have what I need but will get fresh gas tomorrow for the generator.

I went through Opal when I lived in Destin. Went to sleep but during the night not only did the storm rapidly intensify from a 2 to a high CAT 4 it also gained forward speed. I'm glad I woke up and checked. I had time to move further inland as I was only a 5 minute walk to the beach. My area was devastated even though it was downgraded t a CAT 3 just before landfall.

 

0800 Update 4A. Why do these things always hit my area during the hours of darkness . . .

 

The models seem to be missing the storm is moving slower than expected. All models show a shift west with a slower storm.

Where it was 18 hrs ago You can see the first set of "dots is the 12 hour expected line

18 hours later, we still have not reached the 12 hour expected track

current model shows a very consistent line showing western drift the slower the storm moves

But the current models prediction models continue to move east?

 

The models seem to be missing the storm is moving slower than expected. All models show a shift west with a slower storm.

Where it was 18 hrs ago You can see the first set of "dots is the 12 hour expected line
View attachment 585861

18 hours later, we still have not reached the 12 hour expected track
View attachment 585860

current model shows a very consistent line showing western drift the slower the storm moves
View attachment 585864

But the current models prediction models continue to move east?

I just mentioned this to my neighbor, how this storm hasn't really moved at all yet.

 

I've been warning the kids to get their car gas tanks filled early. We are in upstate South Carolina...so other than a lot of rain and maybe some gusty winds dropping some power lines, the impact to us in the past has been limited supply of fuel via the Colonial Pipeline. I filled 5 of my 9 5gal cans yesterday.. I had been slack about keeping them full as the summer lawn season has used a good bit. I use non-ethanol of course so that was $3.19 but I noted that regular gas was $2.64 yesterday morning. By 4pm it was $2.99 I haven't been out today to see what the pump prices are, but I expect another 30 cents bump at least now that local news casts are talking up the fear factor on last nights broadcast. As for shoreside living, (for years we were coastal Carolinas, I had an elderly mom in my care so we always took storms seriously and simply packed up a couple days early to avoid traffic. Most hurricanes to hit our area were just inconvenience, but it's just easier to pack a suitcase for a few days.

 

Not looking good for the Big Bend area. I feel bad for the people of Steinhatchee, was there a few months ago and some folks were still cleaning up from the last hurricane.

 

12 ft sounds well dangerous! I read recently that 1 foot can float a car away.

 

I have been told, if the eye is to the West of your location, it is worse.
So it looks like the whole West coast of Florida is going to be affected.

 

That's me on the west coast We were put on hurricane watch this morning. I'm watching for wind field projection reports so please do share if you see that information so I know what to expect for my area. My hurricane shutters are good for 150 mph but I do worry about my roof with all the trees on my property. This side of the storm can produce tornados and we have had that impact in the past. I remain hopeful I won't have to deal with that.

I'm planning on sheltering in place.

 

Local news saying our Ozarks could be getting 4" out of this one. I sure hope so. We need it.
Hopefully it will get more central and western Missouri than they're predicting. They really need it.

 

Ah, it's been named. Been following it as AL 09. Could reach Cat 3.

 

Further west trend continues. Not a single path splitting cancoon and cuba to the east.

vs prior

no paths on eastern side of big bend paths now showing western side of apalacha which were to the east. 3 paths into bay county

vs prior

 

Further west trend continues. Not a single path splitting cancoon and cuba to the east.
View attachment 585887 vs prior View attachment 585892


no paths on eastern side of big bend paths now showing western side of apalacha which were to the east. 3 paths into bay county

View attachment 585888 vs prior View attachment 585891

What site are you using?