I think the increase in 2020 through 2021 was largely panic and speculation driven by the pandemic. Now it is going down, for awhile, because of the strength of the US dollar versus other currencies worldwide. Gold and silver is going up for other countries compared to US. In some cases, 20% or more. Gold and silver will generally rise with inflation. Those markets, especially silver, are also highly manipulated by people buying paper assets and not physical product. The silver market is only a small fraction of the gold market and more easily controlled. Sometimes more silver is traded on paper, than actually is available above ground. When the faith in the US dollar fails, metals will go up....a lot. I think Gold is at a good price for now. To me, Gold and silver are a buy and hold thing as a hedge against everything that is not a real asset. In the end, precious metals are worth what people think they are worth. They can be used for barter and trade if needed, but if nobody has food are they going to trade it for food? In a true SHTF situation, they will come into play once there is somthing to trade for and not until. Others may have different opinions and that is fine. Having food, water, protection, and shelter trumps everything until it don't have to anymore.

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I think the increase in 2020 through 2021 was largely panic and speculation driven by the pandemic. Now it is going down, for awhile, because of the strength of the US dollar versus other currencies worldwide. Gold and silver is going up for other countries compared to US. In some cases, 20% or more. Gold and silver will generally rise with inflation. Those markets, especially silver, are also highly manipulated by people buying paper assets and not physical product. The silver market is only a small fraction of the gold market and more easily controlled. Sometimes more silver is traded on paper, than actually is available above ground. When the faith in the US dollar fails, metals will go up....a lot. I think Gold is at a good price for now. To me, Gold and silver are a buy and hold thing as a hedge against everything that is not a real asset. In the end, precious metals are worth what people think they are worth. They can be used for barter and trade if needed, but if nobody has food are they going to trade it for food? In a true SHTF situation, they will come into play once there is somthing to trade for and not until. Others may have different opinions and that is fine. Having food, water, protection, and shelter trumps everything until it don't have to anymore.

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You make good points except it seems people from other countries would be putting money in gold over the last 3 to 6 months to hedge against a flss of their own currency. That for some reason has proved not to be so.

 

Take a look at a gold chart for the last six months, does it look like gold will go higher?

 

in 1975ish i worked in jewelry industry. gold was selling for about 226.00 per ounce. i cant imagine a time that gold will not be worth more. the question becomes who are you saving or collecting for?

 

Maybe the price of gold is being manipulated? After all many large banks have received huge fines in the past for doing just that. Billions in fines.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

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Several things inform my opinion on gold (and silver too).

1. The markets are manipulated. All you have to do is watch someone dump huge contracts into the Asian markets at the most illiquid times to realize something fishy is going on.

2. The spot price isn't the real price. The futures markets can, if they wish, make good on contracts by settling in currency, not the metal.

3. The real price is what you can buy it for. Gold has a "spot" price of $1673, while the price of 10 American Gold Eagles on Apmex runs $1865 each. That's a premium of 11.5 percent over the supposed "spot" price. It's worse with Silver Eagles which are going for circa $36 apiece while the "spot" price is about $19.36. Go ahead, try to buy Eagles at the spot price. The premium is an astounding 86 percent!

4. There are other forms of silver. Some focus on "rounds" which are not usually as recognizable as Eagles, Maple Leafs, Aussie issues, and the like. You wouldn't be able to trade those to me without being able to demonstrate they're genuine silver. Others might have different requirements. Silver rounds are running between $25 and $26, for a premium of 29 to 34 percent.

5. They aren't going to ring a bell at the top--or the bottom. I'm not smart enough to know when those will occur. All I know is that it's much better to buy gold and silver today than it would have been in March when "spot" gold was at $2000 and "spot" silver was at $26.

5b. That suggests to many that silver and gold are on sale. Some people want to wait until the metals are hitting new highs to feel good about buying. When you want to buy, if you're smart, is when everybody is unhappy with their price performance.

6. Precious metals are, for me, insurance. Insurance against a dollar currency collapse, insurance against a major global catastrophe, insurance against things I can't even imagine. Like my life insurance, car insurance, homeowners insurance, I hope I never need it. Unlike a lot of insurance, though, the "premiums" one pays for PMs aren't gone at the end of the year and you have to pay again. Instead, it's permanent insurance.

7. Gold is more about moving significant assets to the future; silver is far more divisible and thus can be used as money.

8. If you want to see what people are willing to pay for PMs, look at completed auctions on Ebay. Factor in the shipping. It's one thing to look on sites like Apmex to see what they're asking, but another to look on sites like Ebay and see what people are truly willing to pay.

9. China and Russia have both been buying gold and accumulating it from their own mining sources. They obviously think gold has great value especially as a reserve currency. I expect that at some point they may try to create a new currency underwritten by gold. In other words, how the US dollar used to be before 1913.

10. Gold and silver are real. They cannot be printed like fiat currencies. Dollars you hold in the bank aren't real; gold always is. If you can hold it in your hand, it's real and it's yours. Fiat currencies obviously can (and have been) printed with abandon. Sooner or later that has to end, as we'll see another Zimbabwe, only this time in the US.

11. Crypto, while having some positive attributes, isn't a store of value. It moves around too much. And now we learn that it's possible for at least some crypto to be created out of thin air. Crypto, IMO, has no more value than the tulip bulbs people paid exhorbitant amounts just prior to the great collapse. If it's not real, it's not real.


I do not have all my eggs in my PM basket; it is, as I mentioned before, insurance against a variety of calamities and catastrophes. But the above is what forms the basis of my thinking about it.

 

It's never good to buy high or in a panic. When you hear "it's never been a better time to buy gold" it's not.

 

If the paper to silver gold ratio was 1:1 like it was pre-2000, Gold would be close to $7.2K/oz and silver would be near $980/oz. Then the increases in money supply would cause an increase in gold/silver price.

The fact is that it is now legal to sell multiple contracts for every metal bar means that the COMEX can put the metals price anywhere they want by manipulating the contract supply/bar.

Also, the current rules allow for the contracts to be settled in cash, instead of taking delivery of the bars. This negates the industrial interest in metals contracts, and dis-incentivizes the speculators from holding contracts.

Essential, the PM contract market is under command authority instead of free market forces.

The physical market is the 'real' market. What people are willing to pay while taking delivery dictates the 'real' price.

Insisting that the COMEX 'spot' price is the 'real' price is like insisting the 'cpi' accurately represents 'real' inflation.

At the end of the day, all money represents, food, water, energy and raw materials.

As those become scarce, all money become less valuable.

 

If the paper to silver gold ratio was 1:1 like it was pre-2000, Gold would be close to $7.2K/oz and silver would be near $980/oz.

The paper to silver/gold was not fixed at 1:1 prior to 2000. The futures market open interest is simply the result of supply and demand and does not relate to the physical supply.

The fact is that it is now legal to sell multiple contracts for every metal bar means that the COMEX can put the metals price anywhere they want by manipulating the contract supply/bar.

COMEX does not determine the metals price. The metals price is determined by supply and demand as expressed by the public purchasing and selling metals on the exchange.

Also, the current rules allow for the contracts to be settled in cash, instead of taking delivery of the bars. This negates the industrial interest in metals contracts, and dis-incentivizes the speculators from holding contracts.

These rules have always been in place in the futures markets. Contracts can be liquidated at any time up to expiration by longs.

Essential, the PM contract market is under command authority instead of free market forces.

The futures market regulations are subject to government laws and clearly published in detail for anyone to read.

The physical market is the 'real' market. What people are willing to pay while taking delivery dictates the 'real' price.

The delivery procedures are published for everyone to read and settlement prices are the futures price that exists at the expiration of the futures contract.

Insisting that the COMEX 'spot' price is the 'real' price is like insisting the 'cpi' accurately represents 'real' inflation.

The COMEX spot price is the price used as a reference by the professional market for reference and the price used to settle futures prices at expiration.

All of this information is published in detail on the CME web site here: https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Metals

 

Some good/great posts in this thread. Spot price aka non-existent gold price is not street price, real gold price. The vigorous/premium is high for physical for both dealers and consumers. Countries all around the world are stacking up physical gold. This current collapse/greater recession is just getting started. Once the Fed stops raising interest rates next year and even lowers rates, there will be pain and calamity. Forced to do more QE, the Fed will just let inflation run its course. I agree with the notion that precious metals are a good deal right now.

 

Lots of good info here.
I think gold pricing is being manipulated and has been for a long time.
Also, the dollar's value is strong right now vs other world currencies so gold here is not as attractive as it might be.
Pakistan rupee is down 29% vs the dollar and the Egyptian pound is down 20% for example.

 

Lots of good info here.
I think gold pricing is being manipulated and has been for a long time.

How?

 

The S hasn't hit the F yet. The dollar is strong, and has risen against other currencies. So naturally, the price of gold has dropped. But the dollar rise cannot go on forever.

Believe what you want, but I don't think that the U.S. Dollar is any different than the other countries' currencies that rose and fell in world dominance. The Dutch Gilder and the British Pound were each the dominant currency for about 90 years each. It's been about 80 years since Bretton Woods and the crowning of the dollar as king. But the dollar is becoming weaker, through Fed money printing and skyrocketing U.S. public debt. Debasing the currency by printing money is the only choice for dealing with the debt, short of outright default. Either will cause the perceived value of the dollar to fall. When it does, gold will be a backstop, and will rise in price. Same with silver.

 

Of course you are correct and this has been said all my recollect-able life. The truth is most everyone wants the USD yo be relatively weaker so trade and dollar quoted commodities will be cheaper globally. Most of us believe the weight of our public debt would have already had the adverse effect you predict. We must deal with the here and now.

When the Dutch Gilder and British Pound Sterling fell they were not replaced by gold. The biggest reason they fell to another currency was they and their currency was no longer globally dominant.

The question of my OP is why isn't gold increasing now?

 

Two reasons gold and silver have not gone up significantly.

1. Precious metals markets are manipulated
2. Precious metals nearly always lag behind the other markets by ~12-18 months.

Enjoy!

 

Two reasons gold and silver have not gone up significantly.

1. Precious metals markets are manipulated
Enjoy!

Make your case.

 

Its not a cop out, its a hand up

You want analysis, there are plenty of companies that will do it for a fee.

 

Many foreign banks have also been heavily fined for manipulating gold prices in the past. You could say all large banks everywhere have manipulated gold pricing in the past and likely be correct (whether any one was caught or not).
Plus what exactly does it matter what the current price of gold or silver or bitcoin is?
No one knows what the prices will be 3 months from now or a year from now.

 

They weren't the only ones that were doing it.
They were the only ones that got caught.

 

Correct.

 

I saw a Generac commercial tonight for a full house generator. Only $1,995. It struck me that it's close to the current price of a 1 oz Gold American Eagle. A 1/2 oz coin would be about the price of a good well-made pistol. I wonder how these prices stack up against the historical value of these items.

 

Wow, say what? Dad just paid over 5 AGE’s for his new Generac, not including LP gas feed. Whole house setup was an extra gold eagle top of that. I guess my dad should’ve shopped around some but I’ve always known him to pinch a penny.

 

I've been reading "The New Case For Gold" by James Rickards. I do now see gold as money, and silver as money. His reasoning is very well thought out, well documented, and well stated. My personal feeling why gold is dropping now is that the Fed interest rate hikes are strengthening the dollar, and so investors are flocking to the dollar, and away from PMs. I think that will change if Fed policy changes.

 

We did a 22.5kw Geneac whole house backup system 2 years ago for $ 11k complete with natural gas hookup. Works great. Oh, availability took about 6 months.

Your dad did fine.

 

Gold prices weakened early on Friday as the US dollar rebounded from a day-prior sell off after the United States reported inflation rose at a higher than expected rate last month, though lower bond yields offered some support.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down US$16.90 to US$1,660.10 per ounce.

 

In my lifetime I have really never seen a time when gold seemed to be a hedge against anything. Yes it has value in jewelry and in recent years it has uses in electronics after that it is not useful for much. It does not pay a dividend so it is not a income investment.
As for these days we have been in a recession since covid hit and people need to eat. Oh ya in a real survival situation such as when I broke my leg it would be nothing more than useless dead weight.
The only advantage I see to owning gold is if you have it stored in your home and fire hits any fiat paper money could go up in flames at worst the gold would melt but still be there when it cooled.

 

In my lifetime I have really never seen a time when gold seemed to be a hedge against anything. Yes it has value in jewelry and in recent years it has uses in electronics after that it is not useful for much. It does not pay a dividend so it is not a income investment.
As for these days we have been in a recession since covid hit and people need to eat. Oh ya in a real survival situation such as when I broke my leg it would be nothing more than useless dead weight.
The only advantage I see to owning gold is if you have it stored in your home and fire hits any fiat paper money could go up in flames at worst the gold would melt but still be there when it cooled.

One thing is for sure, the value of your dollars continually decreases, especially lately.

 

Let me know when gold hits $1,200/oz and I'll pick some up.

 

Good luck finding any at that price!

 

Here's the thing..gold and other PM's are like the rice and beans everyone has stored in buckets.IMO. PM's are not an investment. they are "security". They should not be your only method for having wealth in our current society.

If you had your choice today knowing tomorrow a major SHTF event will happen where it's the TEOTWAWKI, would you choose $10K in gold & silver, $10k in greenbacks, $10k in bitcoin or $10K in Exxon-Mobil stock? Those are your only choices for this little "what if".

I plan on being here well into a SHTF event because I have planned for it. Without getting shot or suffering a serious injury/health issue, My family, my MAG and I can easily survive a year + ..probably two years with a good growing season.

Know one knows what the trading medium will be after SHTF. We have never really been there. I assume food, ammo, other necessities will be priority, initially. But after a big die off and us survivalists/preppers are left, what will you be trading?

I know ammo, food, and necessities probably won't be my trading/bartering items for me on a regular basis. There MIGHT be a need for a type of trading "medium". To me PM's make the logical choice for the medium. .

YMMV

 

...I know ammo, food, and necessities probably won't be my trading/bartering items for me on a regular basis. There MIGHT be a need for a type of trading "medium". To me PM's make the logical choice for the medium. .

YMMV

Depends.

To have a wide common medium of exchange, requires society to generally agree on such. Which requires, well, society.

I figure before that occurs "food" would be the localized medium of exchange. Work in exchange for "food" being the "simplest" barter. Perhaps including shelter, depending on the depth & breadth of "whatever".

Much of which we can't truly comprehend...

 

GOLD

Meanwhile the dollar on average loses at minimum 2% per year and most of us know the real figure is much higher (bought a car or house in the last ten years? Groceries? Tuition?)

 

I think people are too lazy to deal with money.