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Attack on Taiwan

120K views 1.4K replies 160 participants last post by  smooze1775  
#1 ·

It's been piling up for a little while now. China has no fear of the US now and I have little doubt they will attack Taiwan this year.

It's all coming together. They've built up their navy enough to do it, reformed their army and airforce to be perfectly suited to it, etc. Years ago China simply couldn't win an invasion against Taiwan proper. Now it's very possible. If they can maintain the beach head and get their heavy brigades landed Taiwan will be steamrolled to the mountains.

The only thing that can stop China is having their ships sunk by the US navy before they land heavy forces or a counter attack by heavy US forces. The US has allowed Taiwanese military equipment to stagnate and rot well below those of China. They're still driving around with M48 tanks.

I think China is confident the US is in no position currently economically or politically to intervene and it'll be a straight fight between them and Taiwan.

And frankly I think they're right and there's a majority chance here the US response will be "We strongly dislike China's attack but this is an internal Chinese matter and we can not interfere. We are instead urging negotiations."

We'll see how it plays out but I don't see how China doesn't at least take Taiwan's smaller island territories and try to embargo Taiwan.
 
#1,289 ·
cannonfoddertfc was here... silly spammer, tricks are for moderators
Personally, I don't see how we can complaint about China's invasion of Taiwan while we are occupying Syria.
I agree that the US is not in a position to do anything about it if it happens, in a military conflict China enjoys to big of a logistical advantage.
That said, I think it's fair to raise awareness of the situation and call on our leaders to take a diplomatic approach to the issue. We can use our international influence to help protect Taiwan's sovereignty and freedom. We should also be sure to stand up for the people of Syria who are facing oppression from all sides.
 
#7 ·
Make no mistake Japan đź—ľ is the key in the upcoming Axis and Allie's WWIII version just like Britain was the key in WWII. If Japan đź—ľ falls. It's going to get really ugly. China is not stupid. NK will attack SK we will go to aid the 2nd Infantry Division. China attacks Japan đź—ľ and in our navy our planes have no place to land. China will not make the mistake Japan đź—ľ did in WW2. Russia will keep Nato frozen in fear. And who knows for sure what Iran will do. But it won't be good.
 
#814 · (Edited)
Make no mistake Japan đź—ľ is the key in the upcoming Axis and Allie's WWIII version just like Britain was the key in WWII. If Japan đź—ľ falls (it won't). It's going to get really ugly. China is not stupid. NK will attack SK we will go to aid the 2nd Infantry Division. China attacks Japan đź—ľ (China will get their asses handed to them by Japan) and in our navy our planes have no place to land. China will not make the mistake Japan đź—ľ did in WW2. Russia will keep Nato frozen in fear (I don't think so). And who knows for sure what Iran will do (kiss their ayaTOILETS ass). But it won't be good.
Lots of Sabre rattling going on GRIZZ, not suggesting it's all talk, but deep down inside, I personally don't think that they're really wanting to test the theory Bro. Don't forget that "We" have more dogs in a potential fight than one can think. Basically, first and foremost, the whole world for the most part is pissed at Russia. Poopin greatly underestimated Ukraine and Russia's getting their asses handed to them!
 
#8 ·
China has bought and paid for us to stay out of this fight. After the coup in Nov 2020 was completed, I’m sure that ccp have been gearing up for this. Weak US “leaders” make opportunity for bad world bedfellows to misbehave.
When China moves on Taiwan, they may move on India also. When the world watches and starts seeing what is or isn’t happening, then more dominoes may start to fall.
The key for us is that China supplies so much crap to us, that if they cut us off, we are in a bad, Terrible spot in regards to everything from electronics to antibiotics. We simply MUST START bringing that production back home before we can do anything against China. Not that we have the WILL to do either at this point.
 
#10 · (Edited)
China has bought and paid for us to stay out of this fight. After the coup in Nov 2020 was completed, I’m sure that ccp have been gearing up for this. Weak US “leaders” make opportunity for bad world bedfellows to misbehave.
When China moves on Taiwan, they may move on India also. When the world watches and starts seeing what is or isn’t happening, then more dominoes may start to fall.
The key for us is that China supplies so much crap to us, that if they cut us off, we are in a bad, Terrible spot in regards to everything from electronics to antibiotics. We simply MUST START bringing that production back home before we can do anything against China. Not that we have the WILL to do either at this point.
I doubt they will move on India. The attempts they have made so far have not gone well for them. India is a whole different case than Taiwan. India has a well-equipped, badass military based on the British regimental system, with more recent combat experience than China. They have nuclear weapons on missiles that can reach most of China.

India will take over China's spot as having the largest population in a few years and is on track to take over the #1 spot as the world's largest economy in a couple of decades. Attacking India is more than even China can handle.
 
#9 ·
The US has been wishy-washy about Taiwan since Nixon's visit. We support them, but we refuse to recognize them as a sovereign country, which they clearly are. Taiwan cannot defend itself against a mainland invasion, no matter what we give them in terms of arms.

Eventually, they will get invaded. China has always promised this. The US will do nothing and that will be the end of it.
 
#11 · (Edited)
The US has been wishy-washy about Taiwan since Nixon's visit. We support them, but we refuse to recognize them as a sovereign country, which they clearly are. Taiwan cannot defend itself against a mainland invasion, no matter what we give them in terms of arms.

Eventually, they will get invaded. China has always promised this. The US will do nothing and that will be the end of it.
Taiwan’s best bet is to just be the worst possible fly in the ointment. They will lose in the end , but if they make it painful enough and destroy enough manufacturing and infrastructure to make it not worth it, then that might be the smallest sense of a Pyrrhic victory for the Chinese. They want the people as slaves toiling away for them in those plants. If China cannot have that plus takes heavy military losses, it may not add up at this time. However, China is playing the long game. Winning hearts and minds, getting loyalists elected to government positions etc. So, it may not be too long until Taiwanese open their arms and welcome their conquerors onto the beach.
 
#16 ·
Hold the phone.

First there are several very specific aspect thats make a comparison to WWII a bit moot.
1: There is no formal Axis like agreement between Russia and China. They do have cooperation betweent hem, but much like Germany and the Soviets, it was more for convenience sake and to allow russia to build up for war.
2: The core of a European front is the Balklands NOT the Sudetenland. The Russians are interested in running the SP-2 pipeline. This is what the whole thing about the Crimea and the Donbas is all about.
3: But at the same time Turkey is backing Azerbaijan over Arminia. Dont discount this. ErdoÄźan has made it expressly clear he want a new Caliphate out of Turkey and a return of the old Lavant. This includes the wiping of Israel.
4: Iran is demanding a tribute from the US. What do you think all that money transfer from Bamster to them was about.
The Nuke talks are all smoke.
5: The Boys in Brussels are money hungry which is why Germany (the primary benefactor of the SP-2 gas line BTW) WONT engage Russia. Not over fear of war, but because they want the Nat. Gas and the money it will generate.
6: This one point is the most poignant: The US runs off of a capitalist system where money is what rules the day. This includes Military spending. To the Chinese, they dont give a damn about money or the capitalist system. They just make the military hardware and go kill. We run out of money and say.. Oh My GOD, we cant pay the army anymore.. we loose!. Why do you think the 'Military Industrial Complex" even exists? MONEY! China KNOWS this and KNOWS that if we are laid down with debt, we become mentally paralyzed and think...no money, no war. We loose.

In reality they don't use the money system to make their military, THEY JUST MAKE IT AND GO CONQUER!
that's why the move to take Taiwan is much much closer than we realize.
IMO weeks.


Now. One more point. Many think that the Chinese are pulling the strings here.
They are not. They simply gave us the tools to hang ourselves. Our greed and and our desire to play politics. They are unified, we are not. We did this to ourselves. And were goingt o pay a very heavy price for this.
 
#28 ·
We run out of money and say.. Oh My GOD, we cant pay the army anymore.. we loose!.
WTF are you going on about?
Utter BS.
We ran out of real money MANY decades back...hasn't stopped the government from spending whatever they want on the military.

The ONLY way your imagined scenario happens is if the media and leftists decide to castrate the military. And that won't happen, the leftists are now the one's pushing for intervention, making money off the M.I.C. and refusing to bring troops home.

Not that the leftists will support Taiwan against China, regardless of all the rest.
 
#17 ·
In case people missed it from the article in the first post:

A major CCP figure gave a statement that: Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" and "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait,"

They intend to fly their planes right over Taiwan and then blame Taiwan for starting the invasion for defending their airspace. If Taiwan doesn't shoot them down they may very well be the opening attack of the invasion, and regardless of who fires first China will say it was Taiwan.
 
#19 ·
In case people missed it from the article in the first post:

A major CCP figure gave a statement that: Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" and "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait,"

They intend to fly their planes right over Taiwan and then blame Taiwan for starting the invasion for defending their airspace. If Taiwan doesn't shoot them down they may very well be the opening attack of the invasion, and regardless of who fires first China will say it was Taiwan.
Can anyone say Manchuria?
 
#18 ·
Also, the recent incursion was a bluff strike on a US carrier. The carrier didn't shoot them down so had it been a real opening strike they were close enough to have hit the carrier. That's why you do these bluff runs. Because you want the enemy to hesitate too long thinking it's another bluff and let you carry our your opening strike.

 
#20 ·
something to watch for in any China invasion plans is their maritime cargo fleet >>> China has the largest dedicated troop carrying transport fleet in the world - double anybody else - but - they'd be needing their cargo CONEX carriers for helicopter tending like the Brits did in the Falklands for Harriers/helicopters ...

they'd also want all their roll-on/off vehicle carriers for armor & mechanized - regular cargo for logistics and more troops ....

when you hear about any China shipping problems >>>> perk up your ears - not only will they be pulling ships for the invasion - belligerent countries make sure their ships aren't in enemy ports/territory when the balloon pops ....
 
#24 ·
People always try to say China's amphibious carry capacity isn't enough, but always forget that as soon a they've got a port they have basically unlimited large cargo ships. Take all the containers off one of those big cargo ships and you can probably cram an entire light infantry division into one. The official ships are just there for the marines and army amphibious brigades securing a port somewhere long enough to dock cargo ships. Once they've secured a port and start shipping in heavy brigades it would be like fighting the US military and they'd get steamrolled to the mountains. The mountains and the east side of the country would be extremely difficult to take and be long and bloody as hell, but Taiwan would eventually fall if the US just sat and watched without landing a relief force on the eastern coast.
 
#21 · (Edited)
Taiwan is a major supplier of silicon chips to the West. If for no other reason than that, we need to defend them (as we have pledged to by the way).
Currently, our car factories are shutting down lines for lack of chips.

Taiwan is highly defensible. Mining the waters where the Chinese invasion fleet must cross.
Airport runways built into mountain caves. Lots of artillery that can reach the Chinese mainland.

Taiwan has 4 attack subs I believe.

Taiwan ordered a couple billion more worth of artillery and missiles from the US last year.

If Taiwan falls, it will be like Dominoes, and China won't stop until they own everything, S Korea, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, maybe even Vietnam.

A consortium has already formed called the "Quad" which now has about 7 countries in it or with stated support.


I think the invasion is imminent, like in the next couple months.

The real problem is "China Joe". They tampered with our election to get him elected, and of course have bribed him to the hilt.
Several other key politicians are also "owned by China". (Spy-wives, super good investments, etc. ).

The US SHOULD defend Taiwan, but the question is, with our current Fraud President, will we?
Joe will try to get us into a war in the Ukraine against Russia, so we will be too busy to handle China.
Today in fact, he is putting 2 US destroyers into the Black Sea even though Russia is warning us to stay the hell out and is even conducting life fire snap exercises in the Black sea today to underscore this point.
If they sink one or both destroyers, Biden will have his pretext for war in Ukraine.
2 Destroyers have no business being that close to that conflict over there, unless we are declaring war. Without the full US military behind them, 2 destroyers are easy targets for land based Russian missiles.

By the way, a US naval blockade would shut down China quickly and they would implode as a nation. Their own people would bounce them out of power.
 
#22 ·
Noy to be bellicose, but Taiwan has nothing to lose brcause they are massively overmatched and have no backing with ea fraud like Biden pretending to be in charge. If they are invaded and captured, thier ppl will be replaced with CCP loyalists and distributed throughout China and thier concentration camp network.

They will nuke China. The ports, the manufacturing....they just have to disrupt and cripple. Most of the Chinese population is within 200 miles of thier coast. Most of thier manufacturing and military is too. They could be neutrons slipped to them....kill the personnel and eradiate the areas. They may prefer that to the alternative. They will go the way of the Uighars....
 
#23 ·
I think a lot of people are forgetting how easy it will be for the US to destroy the Chinese economy. Out of missile range their navy is still a paper tiger...every Chinese owned vessel will be sunk or impounded shortly after war starts. Then the blockade will start with the closing of the strait of Malacca, hell China still gets most of their oil from the middle east.

Guam will be hit hard but there is no avoiding that. Taiwan can hold off an invasion for a few months. Their missile defense is scattered and until China neutralizes it they can't risk an amphibious assault.
 
#26 ·
I think a lot of people are forgetting how easy it will be for the US to destroy the Chinese economy. Out of missile range their navy is still a paper tiger...every Chinese owned vessel will be sunk or impounded shortly after war starts. Then the blockade will start with the closing of the strait of Malacca, hell China still gets most of their oil from the middle east.

Guam will be hit hard but there is no avoiding that. Taiwan can hold off an invasion for a few months. Their missile defense is scattered and until China neutralizes it they can't risk an amphibious assault.
Have your read the local newspapers and some of the analysis from groups like janes defence?
 
#35 ·
For those urging US involvement, who exactly will be fighting this war? Probably half our fighting age population is too obese or otherwise unfit to serve, of the remain half, a good number will flat out refuse to serve. I don't see to many volunteers signing up to fight this war. The US culture has changed a lot since WWII, I don't see the American people tolerating the number of casualties that will be caused by this conflict.

Better to spend the money that would be spent in this conflict on our own infrastructure so we can manufacture our own stuff rather than relying on China/Taiwan to make it for us.
 
#39 ·
I did my four and got out. Most of those I worked with did the same. I know that there are a lot of very dedicated, patriotic serviceman who will give their life if ordered to do so. But there are a hell of a lot more people who are in it for the short term. People are also waking up to the fact that they are not "defending our freedom" so much as they are paving the way for corporate profits.
 
#56 ·
Taiwan has ordered significant F-16 upgrades to their defense but will not be be operational for maybe two years. Other upgrades will take longer. If China is going to move in it will need to do so sooner rather than later. If the US gets stuck in a Ukraine or Iran war, that would be a good time.
 
#73 ·
Greater Chicom Co-Prosperity Sphere?

The Han Chinese (or of the chicom flavor) have a massive inferiority complex. They likely are looking at the next 18m as the optimal window for mischif. The Dems are likely to be throw out for the House and Senate and buying/owning Barry/Joe/Kammie and the demtard isn't going to mean that much going forward. It means MUCH right now though in laying their groundwork.
 
#61 ·
Makes me wonder about tactical nuclear weapons at sea, if the US did find itself deeply involved. (Though I find it unlikely the US will become so intensely engaged). Open water is probably the ideal arena for their use. Use of such weapons at sea would be much cleaner than on land. Very few civilian casualties, if any. No destruction of cities. Little while later, the ocean looks just like it did before. I think a US carrier group would present an almost inevitable target, if the Chinese navy found itself backed into a tight enough corner. Zero chance the US would respond with a strike on the Chinese mainland.

I don’t know if the Chinese can build a weapon small enough to ride a torpedo or anti-submarine rocket or anti-ship missile yet. The US certainly can. In the 70s and 80s there were lots of small US weapons at sea, anti-air, -ship and -submarine.

Probably still are lots, but they don’t update me on that kind of thing.
 
#64 ·
As a former nuclear delivery bombardier, I never thought the idea of a tactical nuke was all that useful. First, it's still a nuke and if a country uses one, they have crossed a political line for use of a weapon that isn't all that effective. Second, nukes are expensive and complicated, no matter the size. You can get the same destructive power with conventional munitions with a little extra effort. Third, the trend in recent history has been more toward accuracy than power. Any bomb, conventional or nuke, that exactly hits what it's aiming at, is more effective that a much more powerful bomb that only gets close. Nukes are scary weapons, to be sure, but they are not the "world enders" that most people think they are. That would be even more true for a "tactical nuke."
 
#65 ·
Tying this in with the Ukraine and the above mentioned post of Nukes...
this little tidbit hit the news today.

Iskander

These are replacements for the old Soviet SCUD systems.

tensions are VERY high, and a two front war is extremely likely me thinks.
Didn’t the US convince Ukraine a few years back to give up its left-over Soviet nukes?
 
#63 ·
Addendum:
China's survivable Nuke.


"
WASHINGTON (AP) — China appears to be moving faster toward a capability to launch its newer nuclear missiles from underground silos, possibly to improve its ability to respond promptly to a nuclear attack, according to an American expert who analyzed satellite images of recent construction at a missile training area.

Hans Kristensen, a longtime watcher of U.S., Russian and Chinese nuclear forces, said the imagery suggests that China is seeking to counter what it may view as a growing threat from the United States. The U.S. in recent years has pointed to China's nuclear modernization as a key justification for investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming two decades to build an all-new U.S. nuclear arsenal."


So yes, it is in the cards..