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Are you Worried about a food crisis in 2011? I am.

Price of gas has gone up almost 50 cents in the last 2 weeks, and is currently sitting in the $3.47 a gallon range. A couple of years ago when gas touched $3 a gallon, fertilizer for growing food went to $22 - $23 for a 50 pound bag.

The higher cost for fertilizer and fuel pushed food prices up. As the price of fuel came down, the price of food came down.

But now, instead of the price of fuel slowly creeping up, its skyrocketed through the roof. Overnight prices go up 5 - 7 cents. The cost of fuel will sooner or later be passed down to the consumer.

Now that people are talking about shortages of Mountain House #10 cans, panic buying might kick in, and we might be looking at even more food shortages.

A couple of days ago a buddy of mine and I were talking about the current shortages in freeze dried and dehydrated foods. My buddy has the opinion that the current shortages are caused from last years food crops being depleted. That once the crops from 2011 are harvested, that the shortages will fade away.

Lets say for a minute that my buddy is right. Last years crops are depleted, we have nothing in reserves, and once this years crops are harvested everything will be ok. If this theory is correct, we are just 1 season from starvation.

My personal theory on the food shortages, panic buying has kicked, and as a result of the panic buying, our stockpiles have been depleted. All of this civil unrest in Egypt and Libya, the high gas prices, high unemployment rates, jobs still being shipped to China, people still losing their homes,,,,,, people are worried and their stockpiling more survival food preps.

But either way - whether the food shortages are caused from natural market conditions or panic buying, one thing is certain, the future does not look very bright.

Lets just say that I'am worried enough that my family and I will be planting our largest garden we have planted in years. In previous years we planted maybe 1/4 acre plot of land with some potatoes, snap beans, squash and a few other things. This year we are probably going to plant around 3 - 5 acres of crops. The potatoes will be planted pretty heavy, as will the peas, beans, corn and a few other crops.

I'm hoping on putting up some corn this year, along with some peas and snap beans.

Potatoes, I'm hoping on planting enough potatoes that my family and I will not have to buy and for a long time.

The one big issue that I see, if this year is as dry as last year, we might be facing a lot of crop failures. Lake Sam Rayburn is probably 8 feet low - we need some serious rain to bring the area back up to normal levels.

Lets also hope that some of the worlds major food producers do not have any problems this year, like droughts, or floods.

How about a video of harvesting potatoes from May of 2010

 

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I just started stocking up on food about 3 months ago.. But I spend about $200.00 a week for the last month. My Dad has a farm about 45 miles away and we ordered some seeds and plan on makeing the garden 3 times as big this spring and canning alot of it. He has a well on the property but if the electric is down we would be screwed... I have 2 275 gallon totes being delivered monday.. $75 bucks each and looking @ getting a hand pump asap... Wish I would have found this site sooner !!!! I feel like I'm 2 years behind and trying to catch up before it gets Bad.... Here's a link about food prices in the future

http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Fi...ic-highs-for-agricultural-commodities-to-2020
 

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I'm a little concerned. Last Friday, gas here was 2.99 gal. Sat ....(over night!)... it was 3.19 gal. Today it was 3.34 gal. Someone posted a thread where they said sugar was out in their store. I and several others posted no problems locally. Heh, heh. This week at the store.....and this is a new HEB Plus....guess what they were low on? Yep. Sugar. No Imperial brand at all, and about 20 private label bags. I asked someone if they had some Imperial in the back. (I don't buy it...but was curious.) He said the night crew stocked all on hand. Not much for the shelf space. I got another 5 bags to add to my stores.

Chicken and beef are getting rediculous.

It may or may not last....it may or may not recover. Why take a chance? I'm stocking up on what I can get now. As soon as I figure where to put a garden.....and keep opossums, deer and foxes out of it....sigh....I'll be making some raised beds. Hopefully sooner than later.
 

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the price of fuel is artificially high. America get only 8% of it oil from the mid east. 88% comes from Canada, last time i checked it was pretty secure up there. that being said, because oil companies are greedy and government makes extra money on it. oil will be high and we will pay for it not only in fuel but everything we buy.

this sucks
 

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Capability, not scenarios
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the price of fuel is artificially high. America get only 8% of it oil from the mid east. 88% comes from Canada, last time i checked it was pretty secure up there. that being said, because oil companies are greedy and government makes extra money on it. oil will be high and we will pay for it not only in fuel but everything we buy.

this sucks
I humbly disagree.

According to department of energy statistics on imports, Canada in 2009 supplied about 21 percent of our imports. Mexico supplied about 10.5 percent.

Source: http://www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_11.pdf

OP is correct that little of our imports come from the middle east, but in the end, that's not really important at one level.

Oil is an international commodity. It's priced based on the international market, not local markets (with the exception that transportation factors in to its cost).

Imagine: Suppose you discovered and started producing oil in your back yard. What price would you expect for it? I'm guessing you'd expect the normal price, not some discounted price. You'd get what you could for it, which price is determined by the world markets, corrected for transportation issues.


BTW, one more thing: In the above linked table, look at the recent trends, over the last decade or so, for oil imports from Mexico, Canada, and Brazil.

Canada appears to have topped out. Mexico's fields are losing productivity. On the other hand, Brazil's exports to us are increasing, and with the new find offshore of Brazil, that number seems likely to rise.
 

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Capability, not scenarios
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My understanding of the shortages in the freeze-dried market (Mountain House, e.g.), is that it's demand-driven, not food-shortages driven.

They simply can't keep up with demand.
 

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The one big issue that I see, if this year is as dry as last year, we might be facing a lot of crop failures.

You are right, but remember food growing troubles are not only here in the USA, but everywhere else, Mexico has had one of the Coldest winters this year and has lost 80% to 100% of there crops, China and south east Asia has had two very bad Rice crops in a row, IIRC India also has had issues with there Rice crops. Add in the cost to get food to the store because of fuel prices and 2011 will be a hell of a year on peoples check books for food.
In our part of the world food prices has gone up almost weekly, and thats been happening for at least 6 months now, 6 months ago we was buying Taco Bells refried beans in the large can at wally world for $1.08 now they are $1.90, dog and cat food is sky high. This is only the storm clouds on the western horizon, the worst is coming!
 

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Liberty or Death!
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The rise in oil was predicted as far as I know about 5 or 6 months ago to go to $4 a gallon or even higher by summer. A food shortage is inevitable (at least on a global scale) commodities have been steadily rising as the world population increases, the demand for food goes up and then the price's follow. I've been prepping at a furious rate lately myself, I wanted to get to my 3 month supply goal and am nearly there. I've been all over the world and I know per gallon (at least in the places I've been) are far more expensive then what we as Americans pay. The rise in gas prices will have a very negative effect on the already struggling economy. Those on an already shoestring budget will see that string break unfortunately and everyone else will be cutting back. A food shortage is possible but I think we will feel it by cost rather than a shortage at first. We produce a lot of food here in the U.S. and can I believe still sustain our own population for the time being but in the event of a shortage we would or should cut back on our exports in order to protect ourselves from starvation. The rising fuel costs will have a cascading effect I believe will be seen in the next 4 to 6 weeks if the price of oil doesn't go down and I don't think it will anytime soon now. Keep prepping till the last hour, only time will tell us what to expect further down the road.
 

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Just this morning on local CBC radio news, they were saying how local bakers were adding 5% to the cost of bread and many other baked goods to cover the rising cost of flour. Yesterday, the local stores had flour on sale...
 

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it is my first year gardening so i am a little nervous about getting it right the first time. if the budget allows, i was planning on a few chickens this year also. dont think it can wait until next year...
 

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I am worried also, picking up lumber for garden beds tomorrow. i am hoping it is not too late to get started. Also going larger than originally intended in hopes for better return
Me too tedennis. We are expanding from 2 raised beds to 6 and going for a row of bush beans and a row of potatoes down the middle of my orchard. I ordered 9 more heritage raspberries to add to the ones I've got. Also a currant, gooseberry, and a chocolate fruit vine coming. I'm going to split all my rhubarb into one long row and will be adding an asparagus patch.

Even if everything chugs along like it has been, there is nothing negative about growing more. Being self sufficient=$ in your own pocket.
 

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I'm predicting that we will see a spike in commodity prices this spring.
That spike may even be as high as that of the summer of 2008.

By the fall of 2011, commodity prices will again have receeded to historically average levels as they did in 2009 and 2010.

The price of groceries will continue to rise, just as they did in 2009 and 2010.

Grocery prices rise because folks will pay the price.
 
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