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GOP bounce: McCain overtakes Obama
By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 9/7/08 2:52 PM EST Text Size:

John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May.

McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace.

Obama peaked at a 5-point convention bounce in polling published last Tuesday. He was ahead 49 percent to 43 percent in the Gallup poll conducted before the Republican convention. He then soared to 50 percent for the first time of the election, by Gallup’s measure, while McCain fell to 42 percent.

McCain’s 5-point to 6-point bounce so far, like Obama’s, remains at par with historical expectations. In the 22 major-party conventions since 1964, the nominee walked away with, on average in most years, a 5-point to 6-point uptick in Gallup’s polls. The presidential polling will likely remain in flux until the middle of next week.

Today's Gallup report continues to include some polling conducted prior to McCain's acceptance speech. Tomorrow's report will be the first to include interviews solely conducted following the close of the GOP convention.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll also reported today that when "leaners” are included, Obama and McCain are now tied at 48 percent. That means that, by Rasmussen’s measure, Obama’s 6-point bounce has been erased. CBS News polling had shown the same outcome midway through the GOP convention.

McCain’s resurgence in the polls comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that the Republican convention earned more television viewers than the Democratic convention. Republicans earned an average audience of 34.5 million, while Democrats earned an average viewership of 30.2 million.

Obama, McCain and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin all earned a similar and record audience for their convention speeches, each nearing about 40 million viewers.

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Perhaps it is generational but when -- and I am choosing my verb carefully -- but when I watch Obama I do not see a president. It would be nice if he followed in Hillary's pump steps.

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Nearly every poll had Reagan and Carter neck and neck just before the election. Reagan went on to win by about 8%. There's plenty of time left for it to move back and forth, and I expect it will.

I think the favor is on Obama's side though. The socialist Obamacons see him as a bright shining star of change, a wunderkind come to save us all. Nothing will change their minds, as there's nothing different about him. he may be a good orator, but he's politically nothing different. Therefore their votes is emotional, and not rational.

McCain on the other hand, doesn't have that appeal. No one I know is voting for him because they really like him, but he's less scary than Obama. A lot of people are excited about Palin, but she's just a VP. She could be a great VP, and that could set he up for higher aspirations in 4-8 years, but currently she's not going to be the one holding power. Can her appeal carry McCain through the next 7 weeks? Maybe. Personal attacks on her will likely shore up any Republican wavering, mean spirited attacks can do that.

Can anything make McCain shine in Republican eyes like Obama does to his supporters? Not that I see. Reagan had that appeal. The man could have won an election after kicking babies on national TV while carrying a pro-******** sign. Bush Sr. didn't have it and that cost him against Clinton who did have it. Bush Jr. seemed to have a little of it in 2000, and that's why the Party backed him early against McCain. Palin has it in spades, but will that have the overall effect of giving it to McCain? I think it will a little.

Go back a year and who were the Republican darlings? No one was very excited about McCain. Romney and Huckabee seemed to have more appeal. McCain stuck it out won.

I think the part leadership will be holding Palin up a lot in the next few weeks to take advantage of her pizazz, instead of he milquetoast nature of McCain.
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