[kev]

It is just a matter of time before China exercise its strong arm on Taiwan. The communist government will not allow Taiwan to set an example for pro-democracy activist.

When the communist government of China finally has enough of the "one country two systems", and strips Taiwan of its Democracy, how will the rest of the world react?

I suspect a lot of nations will talk big, some may even end free trade agreements with China and move their factories back, but no nation will declare war on China.

The one thing China worries about is economic unrest, as it causes civil unrest. Tensions will continue to build until something happens.

Came across some videos from Australia talking about the war posturing China is doing. The commentator compares China with 1930s Germany. In an era where "everything" is a Nazi, it is difficult to take comparisons seriously. However, China is causing a number of border disputes with nations like India.

We all know the story of the boy who cried wolf. When the real wolf came along nobody believed him. Since President Trump was elected people have been calling Trump Hitler, and comparing the GOP to Fascist. When the real wolf comes along nobody will pay attention.

I fear we have been desensitized to aggressions by nations such as China. Modern youth view communism as a good thing, so will young people make excuses and downplay with China is doing?

Then there is the manufacturing issue. The world is hooked on cheap Chinese products. Free trade has destroyed our ability to wage war with a super power. We do not even make a lot of our brake pads, wheel bearings, smart phones.... here in the United States. We can not even build vehicles without parts from China.

The good news is nations such as Australia and India are starting to wake up to their dependence on China. Will the United States government be willing to hold China accountable when something happens to Taiwan? I seriously doubt it.

In our quest for profits we gave our factories away for short term profits, which will hurt us in the long run. This is one of the differences between the United States and China. Wall Street thinks about the next quarter, and China thinks about the next decade, or the next half century.

First it was the toy factories in the 1970s that moved to China. Then, over the course of a decades president after president slowly destroyed our manufacturing base at the urging of Wall Street. In the 1990s we were assured free trade would create jobs here in the United States, and now can not not even build a computer, or a microwave without China.

 

[SoJ_51]

It is just a matter of time...

...In our quest for profits we gave our factories away for short term profit....

Agreed.. Have you Seen / read this? https://jrnyquist.blog/2019/09/11/the-secret-speech-of-general-chi-haotian/ .....it's all right there, stated - by Them - in print. No 'consipracy theories', needed to distill out what the CCP Wants...

..I even postulate (as that General detailed in that 'speech'..) it's - somehow - tied into the C-19 breakout - I do Not believe it was all just 'natural'.. https://www.survivalistboards.com/showpost.php?p=20252168&postcount=38

And, as I've quipped elsewhere, it's not just 'pie in the sky rhetoric', ie: Krushchev's 'we will bury you!' chest-beating, no - that speech is Very 'specific', and follows the 'logical path' of the past-several decades of their behavior on the World-stage.. So much 'lines up', now, after reading that.. Taiwan / Hong Kong - just 'logical next dominoes'..

..But, 'what to Do'? Dunno, it's an Awfully big 'hydra', but I also believe that it all ultimately comes back to / ties-in to the 'NWO cartel's plans (including Wall Street / Mega-Corps that control / manipulate nearly everything - the MSM 'shaped news' (not "fake", but Definitely 'Shaped'..) being a prime example..) and the undercurrent of these 'Progressives' seeing how they can 'align' (even-if but temporarily, for 'strategic Hegelian' purposes..) thier fantasy of a 'One World Gov', with the CCP's mad lust for a China-dominated World..

The rest of 2020 into '21 is going to be... Interesting. :xeye:

.02
jd

 

[Braunschweige Bandit]

Fascinating read! **** the bed!

 

[small.business.guy.1]

China has very limited financial options available to them at this point in time. And that doesn't even include tossing Taiwan into the mix. Between the human rights abuse issues, and the likely eventual collapse of the Hong Kong financial sector (might take 18 to 24 months), China has way too many issues to go after Taiwan, IMO.

China's only real hope in the USA is IF Biden wins in November & the Democrats take the Senate. That's going to be like drawing an inside straight flush.

After all, this is just the first step for the human rights abuses. Imagine what Hong Kong restrictions will look like. And then imagine what Taiwan will look like, IF it doesn't end up in a hot conflict.

State Dept Warns Top US Firms To Replace Supply Chains Exposed To China's Xinjiang

Now that the Senate has joined the House in its condemnation of China's National Security Law, and on Thursday passed by unanimous consent a bipartisan bill to impose sanctions on Chinese officials who threaten Hong Kong’s limited autonomy, as well as the banks and firms that do business with them, we eagerly await when (and perhaps, if) Trump will sign the legislation into law (according to a WSJ report from Thursday, the White House hasn’t responded to a request for comment over whether the president will support the bill).

And since it is unlikely that Trump will object to the veto-proof law - after all, the last thing he wants is to be seen as easy on China ahead of the election - on Friday, the State Department warned top American companies including Walmart, Apple and Amazon over risks faced from maintaining supply chains associated with human rights abuses in China’s western Xinjiang region, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Thursday.

"It is critical that U.S. companies and individuals be aware of the large-scale human rights abuses perpetrated by the PRC government in Xinjiang," Keith Krach, Undersecretary of State for economic growth, energy and the environment wrote on July 1 according to Reuters. "Businesses should evaluate their exposure to the risks that result from partnering with, investing in, and otherwise providing support to companies that operate in or are linked to Xinjiang," he said in the letter which was sent to trade groups.

Link to Article

Remember, Chairman Xi just goaded the USA over human rights issues to put an entire province doing a substantial amount of exports on the 'restricted' list (if not "these are NOT people you want to do business with - PERIOD!") and putting USA based multi-nationals on notice that if they are using Chinese firms in any way based in China’s western Xinjiang region for their supply chain that they could be associated with human rights abuses. That's REALLY BAD NEWS for those corporations on more ways that I can count.

Hong Kong is going to be there in 18 to 24 months. And that's China's last real existing opening into the Western financial world. If you are China, do you really want to add Taiwan on top of these other financial situations?

There's such a concept as "financial logistics". China is not in a favorable "financial logistics" position, and new financial limitations over both Hong Kong and China’s western Xinjiang region will only make China's overall financial outlook far worse.

Got to pick your fights carefully.

IMO, if the Democrats take power in November, 2020 - well, it's probably 50-50 that Chairman Xi gets a free pass.

 

[JLeeS1983]

A lot of countries don't even recognize Taiwan as an independent country. The United States position on it has never really been truly formalized so not really sure what we would do in the event of Chinese aggression, but with the current state of relations we might actually do something. Though in reality even if nobody decides to step in China would probably pay dearly. Taiwan isn't nearly as weak as people think.

 

[William Ashley]

It is just a matter of time before China exercise its strong arm on Taiwan.

I've read a bit on Taiwans military posture as well as China plan and I can't imagine any scenario in the short term that would do anything other than leave Taiwan a smoldering hunk of rock. I don't think China really has that goal in mind. Much like with Hong Kong it is all about "face". It is a bit like prestige some people had and existed much more in the past. It is more about the CCP having godlike authority and rule over all the Chinese.

A lot of people will talk down China and forecast that it will become a failed state and be replaced by a new Federalist nation where different parts of China will have autonomy and cooperate in a loose federal system with no central authority. I don't think that future represents reality anymore than one where China conquers Taiwan.


While I do think China could conquer Taiwan, the cost to life would be massive. For instance a giant Nuetron Bomb or multiple nuetron bombs that aim just to kill all life on the Island would probably let them take the Island but there is the chance the war crimes would be so great that it would lead to the last big war we would ever see.

I don't really agree that the US cannot decouple from China, but there would be a big cost on that. The fact is that the US is more dependant on China than China is on the US

AND

the big AND, China IS preparing for war. Who China is preparing for war with is a bit of a mystery at this point but be assured China has been pivoting for the last couple years. It is increasingly exerting itself.

Where this may lead is anyones guess, BUT Taiwan is not a soft target, nor would it necesairly be the most likely place you would want to strike offensively in a war plan. Again winning the first battle is great but you need to move forward so as to not loose the war. That is why long term attrition would matter, and Taiwan presents a major attrition loss if they actually engage Taiwan conventionally. What is a more likely scenario is that they would blockade Taiwan and prevent trade. While Taiwan has strong defences, it cannot really attack China too well. Essentially China's only options are 1. to kill everyone in taiwan or most people anyway by targetting military sites with nuetron weapons. 2. reduce it to rouble and or blockade it to starve people into submission. Or a combination of the above. But it is pretty obvious that the cost is too high for a conventional engagement and China would be forced to use NBC weapons to subdue Tawian. In all honesty the game plan could just be a long term political subversion plan as they have been doing by getting everyone to agree to a one china system through belt and road and economic blackmail.


Australia is taking really heavy steps to up its stake in defence and alliance voiced specifically aimed at China

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...ollision-course-lessons-from-history/12415316

Like forget Taiwan it is a rock, they can use all their amphibius landing stuff on a more assertive country that depends on having standoff distance like Australia. China has enough close in air defences near Taiwan and sea based defences to totally ground Taiwan and blockade them to get them to surrender. Then win them over with progressive subversion.

Australia would probably require an occupation and they are mostly weaponless after the military is taken out, so to for New Zealand. Since the Islands are pretty much viewed as mines by the Chinese places for resource extraction, they could probably liquidate most of the wealthy and non laborers, except for the young women to balance out the shortage.

Countries like the US are too well defended so again NBC would be the goto as fighting a conventional war over sea and air against the US would just be a waste of resources.

In all honesty though I can't fathom China actually wanting a global war that it could get nuked to next to nothing with. The same sense for the US.. what do you actually gain by mutually assured destruction.

The line is being drawn in the sand... we are witnessing a major pivot. This at the time of the global recession this attempt to box china in is essentially the public opening of the new cold war... being more visible in broader and broader strokes.

https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News...mary,ideal tactical and antipersonnel weapons.

 

[zooeyhll]

China's biggest weapon? The "economic" one!

Forget arguments about how big China's military is. How many nukes they have, how many aircraft carriers, how they might invade Taiwan. Because China has one weapon that by far outclasses any "military" one.

And you know what that weapon is? It's the billions--or trillions---of dollars that American companies have invested in China. Imagine if Dell, Microsoft, HP, Apple, et al suddenly realized what a potential armed conflict might imply for their economic ties to China. And that's just in the tech industry. What about all the other American industries---auto manufacturing, steel, the pharmaceutical industry---? A possible military conflict with China over Taiwan? Just the threat of it will send the stock prices of Dell and Pfizer into the tank.

If China truly puts the heat on Taiwan, and the U.S objects, then they will simply start pressuring all those American companies that have massive investments in China. And the consequences of that would be as serious as any major war. Not only for the American economy. These corporate interests have ENORMOUS political influence in our government. Enough to give any American president who wants to stand up to the Chinese pause.

As Kev so eloquently puts it in his OP--this is the consequence of years of outsourcing our industry to China. Short term profits beat-out long term consequences.

If the squeeze on Taiwan gets serious, we definitely have limited options. As I see it.

 

[small.business.guy.1]

As Kev so eloquently puts it in his OP--this is the consequence of years of outsourcing our industry to China. Short term profits beat-out long term consequences.

If the squeeze on Taiwan gets serious, we definitely have limited options. As I see it.

Respectfully disagree.

I was in SW Michigan over the last 3 weeks and there is a substantial medical research & manufacturing presence in the area (Upjohn, Pfizer, and several others, etc.). They are already changing their business to in effect cut China out of their supply chain going forward.

I'm not saying the manufacturing is all coming back to the state's, but little (if any) of it is going to be in China. Comes down to three considerations - IP theft and uneven quality production are the first two.

But the third one is the killer. The corporations can't get their dollars back out of China. It's a never ending series of road blocks to move profits on invested capital (dollars) out of China. That game has gotten old really quick.

Echos of a business version of "Hotel California".

Except in this case they can leave. Not cheap, but many corporations are cutting their losses.

 

[small.business.guy.1]

Here's a chart that kind of explains my reasoning:

China Equity Flows

The chart (see link) is an 8 week running total on the amount of foreign equity capital flowing in/out of China from foreign investors. 2014 to date in 8 week increments.

If you just eyeball the chart, you will most likely note that it's a little positive (in China's favor) through 2019, but for the last 11 weeks of 2020 it's looking like China is pretty much a wash for the period going back to 2014. Equity investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to invest foreign (read: USD) capital into China.

Why? Because they aren't sure they can earn a 'return on invested capital', much less a 'return of invested capital'.

These days, investors with spare equity capital to invest are a really scarce commodity, putting it mildly. Particularly in the $10 of billions of US dollars.

Now, there are some large US multi-national corporations that could meet those requirements. But they are going to have to think long & very, very, extremely hard about doing that type of investing in China.

my .02

 

[William Ashley]

I think a lot of people don't really have a clear picture of what is going on in China, western press doesn't really cover China, and where the alt media does it is often highly propaganda based like Epoch times. Still you can fact check reports from Epoch times and China in Focus and others and get a lot of useful information, but you need to go through it. If all of what is being reported is to be beleived, China is in a total crisis mode, but but really any word on it being the pandemic as apparently they conquered the pandemic and are already rolling out vaccines. Then you have cities like Wuhan totally flooding out wiping away everything from the massive discharges of the Three gorges dam.

If you don't watch these propaganda sources, they are worth watching. Anyone who has the image of china being an untarnished country with no internal problems moving outward to conquert he world probably doesn't understand a lot of the issues that are in china right now.

Take a look at this report today,and this is just a small taste.

Like 70% of the country flooded and they are resorting to planting rice in their orchards.

 

[neiowa]

Forget arguments about how big China's military is. How many nukes they have, how many aircraft carriers, how they might invade Taiwan. Because China has one weapon that by far outclasses any "military" one.

And you know what that weapon is? It's the billions--or trillions---of dollars that American companies have invested in China. ....

Nonsense the chicoms need the continued flow US $ at least as bad as we need their mfg crap. Feb-May their exports to the US ceased and still have only slightly recovered. FEW of us noticed the loss of goods (you may notice this summer/fall when the fall crapola is not in the normal US warehouses). Guaranteed they noticed that $ flowing in went WAY down.

 

[ralfy]

AFAIK, even the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.

 

[Mule Skinner]

I think a lot of people don't really have a clear picture of what is going on in China, western press doesn't really cover China, and where the alt media does it is often highly propaganda based like Epoch times. Still you can fact check reports from Epoch times and China in Focus and others and get a lot of useful information, but you need to go through it. If all of what is being reported is to be beleived, China is in a total crisis mode, but but really any word on it being the pandemic as apparently they conquered the pandemic and are already rolling out vaccines. Then you have cities like Wuhan totally flooding out wiping away everything from the massive discharges of the Three gorges dam.

If you don't watch these propaganda sources, they are worth watching. Anyone who has the image of china being an untarnished country with no internal problems moving outward to conquert he world probably doesn't understand a lot of the issues that are in china right now.

Take a look at this report today,and this is just a small taste.

YouTube


Like 70% of the country flooded and they are resorting to planting rice in their orchards.

70% of the country flooded?
This seems very unlikely given that China is about the size of mainland US.
Imagine how deep the water would have to be to flood 70% here~!

 

[William Ashley]

70% of the country flooded?
This seems very unlikely given that China is about the size of mainland US.
Imagine how deep the water would have to be to flood 70% here~!

It is the Yangze river basin.

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/images/map/yangtze-river/section.jpg


The stuff after the three gorges dam is worst because the flood speed is amplified 25x a normal flood flow
https://www.researchgate.net/public...g-the-locations-of-sampling-sites-in-this.png

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...southern-jiangxi-declares-highest-flood-alert

dams are collapsing.. if three gorges collapses that is a big deal.. like it is the biggest dam in the world.

Like big bad water problem and they are getting massive rain.. I suspect it relates to siberia drying out.

 

[Astronomy]

Maybe they mean 70% of the arable land (where food is grown)?

 

[William Ashley]

Maybe they mean 70% of the arable land (where food is grown)?

No there is flooding in 70% of Chinas provinces the entire country is getting battered with rain for weeks. Stuff is flooding really bad along their river basins.

This is the state news paper coverage (always downplayed)

https://www.scmp.com/photos/3092777/floods-along-yangtze-river-china

 

[Gordon Randal]

A bit of ancient history. 1958-1959

The island chains of Quemoy and Matsu just off shore of main land China were controlled by Nationalist China (Taiwan).

China started shelling some of the Islands and continued despite objections of other countries including America.

President Eisenhower sent militay help that is/was vastly under reported. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/quemoy_matsu-2.htm

What actually happened was, the complete 3rd Marine Division was sent in what was publicized as the "largest military training exercises since WWII". In fact it was a full scale amphibious invasion force that landed with full combat load and set up emplacements on several of the islands.

How do I know? I was there, advanced party for 2nd Btn 12th Marines. We landed with the grunts in Higgins Boats in the 2nd or 3rd wave.

What was unexpected was to find mainland forward observers on the islands. We had several skirmishes with them.

Today I would be surprised if America would stand up and defend Taiwan like that.

 

[Exarmyguy]

Forget arguments about how big China's military is. How many nukes they have, how many aircraft carriers, how they might invade Taiwan. Because China has one weapon that by far outclasses any "military" one.

And you know what that weapon is? It's the billions--or trillions---of dollars that American companies have invested in China. Imagine if Dell, Microsoft, HP, Apple, et al suddenly realized what a potential armed conflict might imply for their economic ties to China. And that's just in the tech industry. What about all the other American industries---auto manufacturing, steel, the pharmaceutical industry---? A possible military conflict with China over Taiwan? Just the threat of it will send the stock prices of Dell and Pfizer into the tank.

If China truly puts the heat on Taiwan, and the U.S objects, then they will simply start pressuring all those American companies that have massive investments in China. And the consequences of that would be as serious as any major war. Not only for the American economy. These corporate interests have ENORMOUS political influence in our government. Enough to give any American president who wants to stand up to the Chinese pause.

As Kev so eloquently puts it in his OP--this is the consequence of years of outsourcing our industry to China. Short term profits beat-out long term consequences.

If the squeeze on Taiwan gets serious, we definitely have limited options. As I see it.

America could always appropriate the assets of all these companies if they capitulate to China. Then China's money is worth nothing.

 

[small.business.guy.1]

The economic decoupling between the USA & China is now truthfully starting to happen. There were 2 steps in the last 10 days that make it inevitable:

First, the new requirement that the 2013 Agreement on financial auditing of listed Chinese corporations actually will be enforced. This means that no more auditing by Chinese firms, at Chinese 'standards', and failure to report audit results will be total non-starters going forward.

That means all these Chinese corporations listed on western exchanges will no longer have access to western investment capital (read: Hard currency; $$$$$$) unless they are audited to western financial standards. Which will never happen, IMO.

Meaning there will be no additional western investment capital (read: dollars) for Chinese corporations. That's a really big "Ouch" for China.

Then there's Hong Kong just loosing their preferential trading status with the USA.

Tuesday, 07.14.2020) As we wait for Trump to take the podium, media reports are claiming that Trump is planning to announce that he's signing the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, a bipartisan measure to penalize banks that work with Chinese officials found to be interfering in Hong Kong affairs.

The penalties for the banks can include limiting access of any sanctioned banks to western hard currency. That's some really big players in the banking world. That's a serious hammer.

Add both together, China just lost 2 of their major financing routes. There's not much left for China to utilize to obtain western hard currency.

 

[Steve_In_29]

No there is flooding in 70% of Chinas provinces the entire country is getting battered with rain for weeks. Stuff is flooding really bad along their river basins.

This is the state news paper coverage (always downplayed)

https://www.scmp.com/photos/3092777/floods-along-yangtze-river-china

While I understand the flooding is extensive, reporting flooding in 70% of the provinces is not the same as 70% of China being flooded.

Even in those provinces with flooding it's not the entire area that is flooded.