I guess it will depend on your participation in the economy. If one is a homesteader mostly trading with local like-minded people, a drastic slowing of the fossil fueled economy won't have much of an affect.

If you are a stock broker on the 10th floor of a high rise, you will probably become splat on the sidewalk.

 

FYI:

Bankers did not jump out of windows on wall street when the market crashed.

 

I clicked on this thread because I thought you had the answer, not the question.
Drat!

 

Same here, I feel so lied to.

 

Recently, there has been several people who have been laughing at us for saying the economy will collapse. I'm not an economist, and don't claim to be, but I want to hear your reason why it won't collapse. I hope that you're correct and we're all wrong. Please discuss your reasons why it won't collapse. Thanks, in advance, for any input you give.

What do you mean by collapse.

I think part of the problem is that people don't define the word.

 

Trust me, your 'gold under the mattress' attitude, if endemic, WILL collapse it. Fortunately I don't think you're in the majority.

The economy is a money-go-round. you see that money-go-round stopping? No. Your government has been putting money in to keep it going.

If you all got out your silly stashes and invested in business, sent your gollumesque preciousses back out there to do the job that is their job to do, you'd right the boat and send it on its way. Although this would of course involve letting go of your 'i'm better than you' and 'i told you it would all go to hell' schadenfreude.

 

So you want us to take what we scraped to buy with our nearly worthless fiat paper money and invest it into the crony-capitalist, political favors out the back door, money-laundering Ponzi scheme, and expect to see returns in completely worthless fiat paper money. Then all will be right in the world?

Sounds reasonable.

 

I see this one's really taking off. Whats'a matter, no figures to confirm? Figures...Ya...

There is no way anyone can tell whether or not a collapse is coming. Just like the crash of 29 (which will seem like a blip compared) there was no warning. No figures, no matter the source will indicate in advance the impending, especially from the Gov. Government figures? GOVERNMENT FIGURES??? REALLY??? Anyone really trust that manipulated, smoke and mirrors, CRAP??? It's garbage in, garbage out, all the fantasy figures in the world mean nothing UNLESS SOMEONE BELIEVES THEM! So far, the "believers" are still believing. Thats good for people like us, who tend to notice little tid bits and take appropriate actions.

Now, yet another "something" that made a little birdie sing to me the other day was, I had to ship 5 packages to Kansas. Over the last year or so I have started noticing something, could be one of those "temporary trends"... Ya - OK... Usuallly when I ship a few packages, the tracking numbers are always a few hundred numbers apart. I have noticed, especially over the last 6 months that they are getting closer and closer. I mean like from 350 packages between me generating 2 labels, 8 months ago, to around 22, 30, 15, 24, 17 last week. I couldn't believe that in the whole Fedex system, that only those numbers of shipments were being generated in between mine. Guess everyone is "so rich" these days, they are using air service.

It's stupid little things like this that clue me in. Just more "hmm" in a very long line of "hmm's".

 

of course it will collapse some day. In the interim there will be recessions and probably even depressions. Do you consider those to be collapses? those are normal economic cycles to me. For example, the ITR economics guys, I believe, are predicting a big recession in 2019. But moderate growth until then.

If you are talking about a complete dissolution of the american economy I dont see that in my lifetime.

China survived war by the japanese and the communists. Russia survived dissolution of the soviet union. Many countries have survived outright war without completely dissolving into chaos. Even the ones that have a complete change in political power still maintain some semblance of trade, economy and property rights.

 

Big difference in the populations of those countries and Americans.

 

So far, nobody had said anything intelligent, why we won't see a collapse.

My personal opinion is that the economy is obviously not sustainable. I can see either a "global reset" of all debt or a global currency popping up.

I have no clue if that's going to happen, but if anybody disagrees, then please tell me why I'm wrong and not just say that I'm wrong. If you say I'm wrong, without giving a reason, then you're useless and your opinion mean crap.

 

Not much help, but I'm with you on this. Ever since my first introduction to the markets and economics I've been saying "wha?".

A system is flawed if it requires continual growth to be healthy. That means it must continually consume more and more all the time.
Economics assumes that all resources are infinite, as price will scale back the demand when the resource becomes harder to get. Infinite resources. This isn't "Warcraft", and we don't have cheat codes. If that's not the biggest free lunch I've ever heard of!...anyway- resources aren't infinite, and if you take the twisted logic to its final conclusion, at some point everything grinds to a halt because:
*You only have one marketable resource left (All others have been replaced with this one thanks to the miracles of technology and science)
*Prices have risen on all other resources to the point that nobody can afford anything else. (hence the switching)
*Demand has risen on the final resource due to its now having "inflexible demand" (there is no other choice, and you can't do without).

Economics in its current form is an exponential system of rise and fall. Things rise while resources are abundant and interchangeable (you can still buy your China-mart goods with cardboard OR plastic packaging). Once resources dry up, there is a mad dash for whatever is left. This continues until there is no alternative, and buyers flock to get it. Demand explodes, price lifts off for the stratosphere, and the market can't keep feeding the laborer/consumer cycle without going broke. So everything stops dead.

This is a very simplistic view, but its meant to get the message across.

 

I have something but I don't know that it's intelligent. It's only my own speculation.

The economy won't collapse because the puppet masters have involved the entire world into the ponzi scheme and so they're bouncing their manipulation from one country to the next in an attempt the keep the juggled balls a float.

So far, 'we the people' have been able to keep up our end of the delusion and continue to pay our taxes and bills so that the charade can continue.

To add to this is the fact that the propaganda masters are so talented at keeping the vast majority of the population asleep so that they don't see the failure of the system. They don't understand the dollar is 'fairy dust'.

I'm absolutely 'spellbound' they've been able to keep the charade going for so long through propaganda and 'drug' therapy that I now believe as long as the majority continue to play their part, the balls will remain airborne!

So Brewmaster, there's nothing to worry about.

 

I have something but I don't know that it's intelligent. It's only my own speculation.

The economy won't collapse because the puppet masters have involved the entire world into the ponzi scheme and so they're bouncing their manipulation from one country to the next in an attempt the keep the juggled balls a float.

So far, 'we the people' have been able to keep up our end of the delusion and continue to pay our taxes and bills so that the charade can continue.

To add to this is the fact that the propaganda masters are so talented at keeping the vast majority of the population asleep so that they don't see the failure of the system. They don't understand the dollar is 'fairy dust'.

I'm absolutely 'spellbound' they've been able to keep the charade going for so long through propaganda and 'drug' therapy that I now believe as long as the majority continue to play their part, the balls will remain airborne!

So Brewmaster, there's nothing to worry about.

It isn't some close-knit group of masters in any sector that keep the economy going in America. It is mutual benefit of many different sectors. It is true that certain folks are in a better position to gain than others, but that gain must be spread (little by our Gini score, but still...) in order for the system to continue to slog along. This means that those invested in media are also invested in finance and the political arena. It is a community, albeit very closed to many of us, that gains by owning the assets, so it is that community which will perpetuate the propaganda and control the political message.
It is interconnection and cross pollination that keeps the economy going, and the ability to change the economy is wrapped in many issues, including press freedom, campaign finance, taxation, and many more. It is more broad than you would think.
Because the interconnection, many of the current economic heavyweights driving the "recovery" are on some form of corporate welfare, because the financial and political sectors break bread together. Due to this, you also have highly paid incompetence at the highest levels because of nepotism. Take a look at who cabinet members and ambassadors are sometime. This has been going on forever.
So basically, the economy will get better because most of the capture (i.e. profits) filter to a set of hereditary plutocrats. It is in this community's best interest to keep the system stagnant and somewhat well-fed, so they'll do it.
There doesn't need to be a conspiracy when there is consensus.

 

Let me be the politician or academician here and take a stab at it. "Collapse" suggests that "the" economy will come to a complete end. That is, there will be no more buying, selling, trading, bartering, people becoming indebted, collecting debt, no natural resources extracted, no products made, etc.

What I'll suggest here is that as long as you have as few as two people left on this planet, there will at least be exchanges.

The economy as we know it, the rules of the game, the assumptions and illusions set out before us -- certainly all that is subject to change. But total collapse, I wouldn't think so.

 

Let me be the politician or academician here and take a stab at it. "Collapse" suggests that "the" economy will come to a complete end.

I disagree. If a house of cards collapses, you still have the cards, you just don't have the structure that you so carefully built. The cards will be reshuffled and a new structure will be built, of course, but that doesn't mitigate the collapse of the old structure, or the pain caused by the collapse of the old, adapting to the lack of structure and the rebuilding something new.

 

As mentioned above, collapse needs to be defined. History is filled with currency collapses, government collapses and wars.

Our current world systems are very dependent upon faith, energy sources and rule of law. All of these can break down to some degree for many different reason.

My personal belief is that faith in fiat currency will fail. The stress of this and other issues will lead to a world solution since the world is now financially connected. This will open the door to a world ruling body/individual.

As a Christian, I have to accept the teachings of a world system under an antichrist. I believe that the sovereignty of the US will end due to a major event. IMO, this event will be economic based.

 

Current Time
The economy wont collapse because it hasn't in the last 50 years.

<timewarp back to mid 2011>
Gold prices are going to the moon, the government is printing money, gold never goes down in value

<timewarp back to 2005>
Invest in houses, house prices ALWAYS go up

You get the idea.

The economy will collapse as soon as the general public think its going to, and then sell their stocks, etc etc, snowball on, economy collapses.

Honestly I have no idea why the USD is worth anything ATM.

 

Honestly I have no idea why the USD is worth anything ATM.

This is exactly what "they" want us to accept.
...

As to "why" the "dollar bill" (no par value) is legal tender goes back to the definition of tender.

TENDER - An offer of money ... Legal tender is that kind of coin, money, or circulating medium which the law compels a creditor to accept in payment of his debt, when tendered by the debtor in the right amount.
- - - Black's Law Dictionary, Sixth Ed. p. 1467
​

We know that FRNs are not money.

MONEY - In usual and ordinary acceptation it means coins and paper currency used as a circulating medium of exchange, and does not embrace notes, bonds, evidences of debt, or other personal or real estate. Lane v. Railey, 280 Ky. 319, 133 S.W. 2d 74, 79, 81.
- - - Black's Law Dictionary, Sixth Ed. p. 1005
​

What law compels which creditor to accept them?

TITLE 12, USC sec. 411. Issuance to reserve banks; nature of obligation; redemption
" Federal reserve notes... The said notes shall be obligations of the United States and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks and for all taxes, customs, and other public dues. ..."
​

In other words, the U.S. government, as an obligated party on the note (debt), must accept them in lieu of lawful money (i.e., silver or gold coin).

What makes the rest of Americans obligated to accept worthless notes?

"Federal reserve notes are legal tender in absence of objection thereto."
MacLeod v. Hoover (1925) 159 La 244, 105 So. 305
​

All duly enumerated American socialists cannot object to the tender of the notes that THEY are obligated parties to via FICA.

FICA (Federal Insurance CONTRIBUTION Act) is not insurance for us, but a “Tax and Bribe” scheme. In Helvering v. Davis and Flemming v. Nestor, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Social Security taxes are simply taxes and convey no property or contractual rights to Social Security benefits. Congress is under no obligation to pay benefits - they are entirely at the government’s discretion. So if FICA is not insurance, there is no lawful money to put in a trust fund, what are we “contributing” to?

CONTRIBUTION - ... The share of a LOSS payable by an INSURER when contracts with two or more insurers cover the same loss... The sharing of LOSS or payment among SEVERAL...
- - - Black's Law Dictionary, Sixth Ed., p. 328
​

...
Public debt = loss, and SSN = your account number as an insurer of the public debt. Which explains why we’re listed as “human resources” (pledged as a surety). In short, “we, the sheeple” are misled to volunteer to be collateral on an impossible debt to usurers (abominations), surrender our birthright, in exchange for “entitlements” (bribes), which, in turn, reduce participants to paupers at law - status criminals.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Currency/Pages/legal-tender.aspx
" Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything. This has been the case since 1933. The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy. In another sense, because they are legal tender, Federal Reserve notes are "backed" by all the goods and services in the economy."
​

[The site coyly avoids mentioning that FICA is the means by which all YOUR goods and labor back their worthless IOUs.]

FYI - participation in FICA is 100% voluntary. No constitutional law can compel a "free" American to sign away his birthright of sovereignty, freedom and independence, for pauperization and lifetime servitude on behalf of the bankrupted government.

“The Social Security Act does not require an individual to have a Social Security Number (SSN) to live and work within the United States, nor does it require an SSN simply for the purpose of having one...”
- - - The Social Security Administration
http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/ScottSSNLetter.pdf
​

In a nutshell, over 300 million Americans have been tricked into "joining up" with the bankrupted Ship of State, flying the "Jolly Rodger."

 

While I don't believe there's going to be any complete TEOTWAWKI collapse, I'm confident that the US Dollar is not long for this world, or at least not anywhere near it's current value. Not only have we done to the Dollar exactly what's consistently resulted in failed currencies for centuries, we've done it to a degree unprecedented in human history. There's simply no un-screwing this situation.
We're closing in on the point that our total tax revenue won't even cover THE INTEREST on our debt. Not only is the rest of the world beginning to clamor for a new reserve currency (and some taking tangible steps to bypass it) , our own Federal reserve chairman said ( in a speech in Germany 3 years ago), that "the world needs to come up with a better alternative to the Dollar as the global reserve currency".
When our own Central Bank chairman is advocating a new global currency to replace his own, then things ain't good.
If Saudi Arabia and OPEC sees the writing on the wall ( in fact, there's no chance that they haven't already), and they end the petro-dollar agreement,(possibly hooking up with the Chinese) then we are toast, in short order.

 

For the low income earners the economy has already collapsed. There hours worked have dropped. For non-supervisor wage earners making $14.50 or less, hours worked have been decreasing for 18 months. (Obamacare the cause.)

I do not think the economy will collapse as many of you think. The major reason is most people believe the economy automatically rolls along. So the masses will not give up as many of you have. (Now as peppers most of you can go either way.) Like it or not our economy is a confidence economy.

Given the massive unrest in the Middle East yet they are not starving demonstrates globally how much cushion there is between starvation and almost zero economic activity.

Look at what happened when the USSR collapsed. With little to no direction everyone continued to function as a government and economy developed around them. Unfortunately unused to freedom they re-elected a dictatorship that re-nationalized most of the industries that capitalist stepped in to run.

Putin combines the discipline of a dictator over a willing population and run the country in a global economy. He has grown the home economy by not getting back into an arms race with the US. And letting us destroy ourselves with Obama.

So will our system officially collapse like the USSR or continue degradation, I think the latter. But I think the outcome will be the same. What you call the sheeple will continue to function.

Now what will be the roll of PMs? I think it will continue to be valuable commodity. However how can it be valuable without serving some function within the global economy? I know there is not enough of it to function as money.

I have worked it over in my mind and cannot find PMs doing much differently than they do currently. It is the asset (commodity) that everyone runs to when when they don't know what to do.

I do think one thing has changed. The way I expected the global economy to work is wrong. I expected an orderly capitalist libertarian functioning economy. I think the masses want no part of it. There will be a national degree of comfort within borders. That internal socialist system will stumble along while a larger global class will function as capitalist.

Which will you be and will the government leave you be?

 

Look at what happened when the USSR collapsed. With little to no direction everyone continued to function as a government and economy developed around them. Unfortunately unused to freedom they re-elected a dictatorship that re-nationalized most of the industries that capitalist stepped in to run.

A similar thing happened after the Western Roman Empire fell in Italy. The other areas kept on functioning.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what Absolutely!'s absolute reason is for absolutely being on a board that is absolutely about prepping.. absolutely...

 

Of all the arguments for and against mentioned, both reasonable sounding and far-fetched, folks are leaving out one large variable that is new to tosay's interconnected world- it takes fewer and fewer malcontents to do more damage. Whether we're talking a coordinated dirty-bomb explosions in a few US cities or a foreign massive cyberattack on Internet infrastructure- the world economy, and US in particular are MUCH more sensitive to these contingency events than any Roman or British Empire.

With the tenuous situation of almost every major country's economy, a relatively realistic "black swan" event makes the tipping point more fragile. Think of it- one whacko on a commercial flight shuts down an entire ATC system....the NASDAQ has a "software glitch" and trillions of dollars grind to a halt. Two people blow up a bomb and a whole city shuts down with Gestappo tactics by the police for 24 hours while unaffected cities beef up security (and more overtime pay on the taxpayers' backs.

Can you imagine what a few coordinated suicide bombers in separate cities with uranium strapped to their vests could do both socially and economically?

While the "frog in the slowly heating pot of water" metaphor seems to apply best, think of it more as a slow drift downward with the occasional steeper down step- like a shallow beginner ski slope with a few moguls thrown in.

Not sure if this a dresses the OP point, but I wanted to point how this time things really are different, to a degree.

 

I agree here, you can look to see what 9/11 did to the country. we are still experiencing the aftershocks of that. My only point is the economy wont collapse "just because".

Also I would add that we werent there during the other falls. I bet if you read historical accounts there were lots of people that starved, were murdered, roving gangs etc. When you talk about an event like the dissolution of the soviet union it is very sterile at 40,000 ft. But there could still have been significant violence.

Dirty bombs in New york, DC houston, chicago, SF and LA would be enough to completely destroy our economy for at least a generation. It probably would take less than that, maybe just one city.

Historically countries have failed because of invasion from the outside. Nuclear weapons changed that dynamic for the foreseeable future.

 

When this country no longer rewards wage earners and job creators,
While in fact demonizing us this is exaclty where we will ALL be in the near future.
When that happens is anyones guess.

Detroit today!
Take a good look at your future America folks!

There will be some states and areas that will be okay for awhile until they are forced to support the failing states and cities.

.

 

As jet pointed out, currency is not the only problem, when you realize what's been going on then you realize collapse is assured.

 

Every ones a critic! The US economy is a giant system. Small businesses based out of garages, large ones consuming whole cities. Government agency's that communicate from the Pacific to the Atlantic. There are so many people to take care of, the elderly, the unemployed, the disabled. Everyone has do to there job, those businesses have to follow the rules, the government has to follow the rules and yes, WE have to follow them to. The reason it wont collapse is because we the people are holding it together.

This giant system is amazing that it has been afloat this long adapting to the times and the technology. The system is working on par in my opinion, but of course you could do it way better, right..... Ill pay my taxes, invest in what i see profitable, put money into circulation for a few indulgences a year and i did my part. -Jon

 

Its hard to answer a question like that without making it more specific.
So here it goes: why won't the economy collapse in the next 2 years?

We are the only superpower. China and Russia are not even close. One reason Obama can print up so many dollars without gold to back them is that many countries trust the Dollar far more than their own currency.

Our economy has slumped since the Democrats took congress, but Canada and Mexico's have improved.We have a huge military that is bigger than the next biggest few combined that we use to protect our interest and those of our allies.Every time we wipe out an Army like Iraq, it props up the Dollar.

None of this will change until Obama is about to leave the White house, a Republican looks like he will move in, and Obama makes a mess that can't be cleaned up. If Hillary takes the White house we will continue this lousy economy but no collapse.

Once the Democrats realize they will lose power, thats when the collapse will occur.Or, once the Democrats regain the same control they had in 2008 and decide to take our Guns......

As long as we have Gridlock we will have no collapse.

 

Collapse is a relative term.

It won't collapse like being gone, kaput.

But if unemployment in the 25% range, inflation over 20% along with the devalued dollar, oil at $200/barrel, global market crash and loss of the dollar as the world trading denomination is a vision of collapse then yes, it will.

 

Because where there is a need, there will always be someone to fufill that need at a cost. Most economic collapses imply that businesses will cease to fight to keep making money and that they will just let everything go to hell. The rich executives at power companies want to stay rich and the only way to do that is to keep providing power. Bar a catastrophic event, no I don't think the economy collapse in terms of "omg get your guns, food, water and ammo.

 

Every time we wipe out an Army like Iraq, it props up the Dollar.

I have to ask you to explain this statement.
How does spending X amount of money - and getting nothing back for it, really - prop up the dollar?

Most economic collapses imply that businesses will cease to fight to keep making money and that they will just let everything go to hell.

Where'd you get this idea? Most companies will attempt to struggle and get by, as long as it makes financial sense to do so (and it's not become physically dangerous to do so). Even during a financial collapse. They will only close up shop when the situation is bad enough that they can no longer make any money. Money doesn't just disappear - and transactions between people don't just stop either - in an economic collapse.

Money may only buy a fraction of what it used to - and only at the black or grey market - but people still trade and still use what currency there is.

Don't confuse an economic collapse, with a government collapse or a collapse in the rule of law. (Thanks, Maat...) They all tend to go together, but it's a chicken/egg sort of relationship. We'd need a whole new thread somewhere else to discuss where it all starts.

 

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39,

Is that "intelligent" enough for you Brewmaster?

*************************************

Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve—the spread between long- and short-term interest rates—is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.

The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Some Practical Issues

**********************************************

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) – Looking at historical relationships, this index’s 3 month rate of change must be in negative territory many months (6 or more) before a recession occurred. In mid-2012, the rate-of-change made several small incursions into negative territory – but is currently in positive territory implying any recession is months away.

**************************

Business Activity sub-index of ISM Non-Manufacturing – this index is noisy. The index is above 60 (below 55 is a warning that a recession might occur, whilst below 50 is almost proof a recession is underway).

Joe Sixpack’s economic position is strengthening. This Econintersect index’s underlying principle is to estimate how well off Joe feels. The index was documented at the bottom of the July 2012 forecast. Joe and his richer friends are the economic drivers. Joe is the blue line in the graph below, and that is not close to the levels associated with past recessions. Note this index is updated every quarter.

This is a really informative page===>
Economic Forecast September 2013: Trend Change, Economy Improving
You should book mark it for reference, Brewmaster....
********************************

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

State Coincident Indexes

Think of every one of the millions of investors as casting a vote
Some may be "intelligent"
Some may be idiots
If they think the economy is going to collapse
Why would the stock market be going up?
The S and P 500 is sort of a summation or consensus of their viewpoints on which way the economy is moving
If you think The Economic Armageddon is coming
Why would you buy stock in McDonald's?

You can think of the price of gold as the opposite graph of above
Since,imho, when people think that the economy is headed for a meltdown
They buy gold....
Do you want me to post the price of gold the last year? :
Are they all not itelligent

In summary
Most of the economic indicators, do not show signs of a high probability of a recession.....

 

Well, as others have suggested, let's begin by finding out what you mean by 'collapse'. Is what we just went through, the latest 'Great Recession', good enough or does there have to be blood in the streets and burning cities, ala Wesley, Rawles? Are we talking Russia 1998, Argentina, Somalia, Greece, what, exactly?

Working around that vagueness as much as possible: As I have noted NUMEROUS times in other threads, people have been predicting our current economic system cannot go on for more than 50 years now. For 50 years they've been wrong. When the prophets of doom have been wrong several million times, what makes any sane person think they might be right several millions times plus one? Also, it is worth considering WHY they have been wrong. Our economy is not the economy of 1963, '73, '83, '93, or even '03. We have been changing with the times. Those insisting we cannot go on are constantly referring to the past, or are ignoring the possibility that TPTB can see the problems looming just as they can; the difference being, TPTB can take action to change things while the doomsayers apparently can't do anything but say doom. And write and sell books on how the economy is going to collapse that they sell in such numbers they become rich because so many people want to believe them...

In addition, let's consider another factor. I mentioned Greece. Previously I predicted that Greece could not be saved and its expulsion from the Eurozone was certain. Obviously, I was wrong. I was wrong because I did not believe the other members of the E.U. would - COULD - twist the arms of international bankers and lenders enough to get them to reduce Greece's debt and put off demands for payment, or that they would OR could get their citizens to agree to use taxpayer money to bail Greece out. I was wrong because I forgot that if it's a choice between forgiving massive amounts of debt and getting pennies on the million, or demanding full payment and getting nothing, smart businessmen will take the former no matter how much it hurts. And that governments will do anything to keep the boat from rocking. All those insisting with a repetitiveness that suggests their brains have been torn out and replaced with stuck phonograph records (is that even a valid analogy in this day and age? I'm old, I don't know) that the U.S. is doomed - DOOMED, DO YOU HEAR, DOOMED!! - are ignoring the simple fact we are too big to fail, and the rest of the world will forgive our debt even if it almost destroys them rather than knock us down and go with us. A collapse is not impossible; but neither is it assured.

And you're welcome. :thumb:

 

In addition, let's consider another factor. I mentioned Greece. Previously I predicted that Greece could not be saved and its expulsion from the Eurozone was certain. Obviously, I was wrong. I was wrong because I did not believe the other members of the E.U. would - COULD - twist the arms of international bankers and lenders enough to get them to reduce Greece's debt and put off demands for payment, or that they would OR could get their citizens to agree to use taxpayer money to bail Greece out. I was wrong because I forgot that if it's a choice between forgiving massive amounts of debt and getting pennies on the million, or demanding full payment and getting nothing, smart businessmen will take the former no matter how much it hurts. And that governments will do anything to keep the boat from rocking. All those insisting with a repetitiveness that suggests their brains have been torn out and replaced with stuck phonograph records (is that even a valid analogy in this day and age? I'm old, I don't know) that the U.S. is doomed - DOOMED, DO YOU HEAR, DOOMED!! - are ignoring the simple fact we are too big to fail, and the rest of the world will forgive our debt even if it almost destroys them rather than knock us down and go with us. A collapse is not impossible; but neither is it assured.

And you're welcome. :thumb:

I also thought that Greece would be kicked out. I have friends there and have been there. If you ask the average Greek Citizen they will tell you their economy did collapse. Sure they are still in the EU but their unemployment rate is staggering high, businesses have closed up and there have been riots in the street.

The EU looked at other countries in the EU such as Spain and said, hey, these guys aren't too far behind Greece... If we kick Greece out Spain will be following, then the whole EU will crumble. They didn't really come up with a solution, just pushed the outcome out. Greece's economy is terrible. They wrote off some debt, but the structural issues haven't been corrected.

As long as the US can print money to pay entitlements we'll be okay, once that stops or is disrupted, we're hosed.....