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Sibi Totique
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Discussion Starter #1
We been writing allot about potential dangers in form of crisis, disasters and conflict. We all know there is a lot of potential dangers out there but still very few times that the S actually HTF. So the question I have is: What prevents the S from actually hitting the fan?

My guess is that these things may be factors:
1.) The world today is a very complex place where all the different parts are more or less connected to each other. That’s prevents conflict and wars between states, China could attack the US with an EMP or try to destroy the US economy but where would China sell their gods after this conflict?

2.) Democracy. The democratic development in the world means that fewer and fewer countries are totalitarian states. Democratic states seems to go to war much more seldom than totalitarian states and it’s almost an absolute truth that democratic states don’t go to wars against each other.

3.) The government really does some of the things it’s supposed to do. We all talk allot about the failure of governments, but we kind of overlook all the things that they do to keep us safe. Everything from building codes, first responders, intelligence agencies, the armed forces and so on.

So what do you believe prevents the S from HTF?
 

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Sam Adams was right....
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We been writing allot about potential dangers in form of crisis, disasters and conflict. We all know there is a lot of potential dangers out there but still very few times that the S actually HTF. So the question I have is: What prevents the S from actually hitting the fan?

My guess is that these things may be factors:
1.) The world today is a very complex place where all the different parts are more or less connected to each other. That’s prevents conflict and wars between states, China could attack the US with an EMP or try to destroy the US economy but where would China sell their gods after this conflict?

China doesn't need the US or Europe to sell goods.. their economy is growing at almost 15% annualized while the US and Euro exports are actually declining, year over year (2008 to 2009) the avg. has been about 17%... and China expects 2010 exports to US and Europe to decline an additional 10%. So the real question is: "how can China grow with declining exports?"... simple, they are growing exports to developing economies (read: other than US and Europe) AND growing their own domestic consumption faster than their exports are declining...

They aren't as linked to the US and Europe as most believe.


2.) Democracy. The democratic development in the world means that fewer and fewer countries are totalitarian states. Democratic states seems to go to war much more seldom than totalitarian states and it’s almost an absolute truth that democratic states don’t go to wars against each other.

IMHO - War is not about forms of government... but more about resources and economics. The general population is often led to believe that wars are political in nature... but most have purely economic basis.


3.) The government really does some of the things it’s supposed to do. We all talk allot about the failure of governments, but we kind of overlook all the things that they do to keep us safe. Everything from building codes, first responders, intelligence agencies, the armed forces and so on.

IMHO - if our government (the US) would focus more on what they are constitutionally obligated to do, instead of politicizing the Constitution for partisan agendas, we'd be A LOT safer...

So what do you believe prevents the S from HTF?


Nothing is preventing it... we're dead on the course now... 60 Trillion in debt (including Social Sec, Medicare, etc.)... on track for our debt to be 114% of GDP withing TEN YEARS... and 400% by 2050 (from the GAO office)
it's hard to be optimistic once you realize the magnitude.
 

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Realist
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2.) Democracy. The democratic development in the world means that fewer and fewer countries are totalitarian states. Democratic states seems to go to war much more seldom than totalitarian states and it’s almost an absolute truth that democratic states don’t go to wars against each other.
Democracy does not preclude totalitarianism. Most systems of government do not have an inherent level of oppression. Democracy can be just as bad as the rest.
 

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It hasn't happened yet because the proper pieces necessary aren't in the right "place" just yet, that's a good thing don't complain! It's only a matter of time...
 

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Limpin to safety.
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For those who last their houses, jobs, homes, savings, health Benefits, chance of economic recovery, family, credit, respect, and even health, the S has hit the fan.
 

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Vote 3rd party!
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It hasn't happened yet because the proper pieces necessary aren't in the right "place" just yet, that's a good thing don't complain! It's only a matter of time...
First off, hopefully it won't!

Unfortunately, I see coin toss going to it will, due to the fundamental economic situation. This tsunami will not happen in a day. Take a look at the great depression - it took 3 years for things to bottom out from the stock market crash. There were many news articles saying all was well as the country sank.

As an example, look at the "trade wars". Obama set up a tariff on steel pipes from China a month or 2 ago. Today, China announced a tariff on steel imports from the US and Russia. Speculation of sovereign debt default for Dubai, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Latavia, etc is still in the news - even more so this past week.

This whole mess isn't over. It's just getting started despite what the MSM is spouting off.

Patience Grasshopper! (If you know what show this comes from, you're dating yourself also
 

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Sibi Totique
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Discussion Starter #8
Thanks for all the answers!
I totally agree that there are many potential scenarios and threats that could result in different forms of crisis. There are always dark clouds on the sky, and there has been ever since people started prepping. What I was thinking about here is what’s keeping a SHTF scenario from actually happening? Just trying to see the problem from another perspective.

About the possibility for a new great depression, it may very well happen again, but the US survived the last one. Why shouldn’t the US make it through another one?

Crutch: You got a point, however I was thinking about a scenario that would call for the BOB, BOV, BOL scenario or a major disaster. I seriously think that STHF is term so widely used that the whole point using it starts to fade away.
 

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Weed 'em and reap
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SHTF in 1913. The government realized that they could bleed the wealth out of people to stave off the effects of the S that already HTF. It has worked rather well for 94 years. The only problem is that now the wealth behind the dollar is gone, so going back to real money will not be an easy sell. And because the Fed has been counterfeiting our money for almost a century, we have no real cash left. The rest of the world can't be blamed for not accepting our IOU's anymore. Sadly, this will be blamed on us, or on libertarians and conservatives, and the sheeple will eat it up like candy.
 

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I believe that the main reason is due to basic inertia within society and the huge mass of people who are either uninformed or illinformed as to the true nature of the stress levels the world economy is under and the inherent dangers this contains.
The vast majority blindly expect their "bank note" to have some sort of magical value, not seemingly aware that it is a printed piece of paper with little practical use other than cleaning up after bodily functions. Those who do take the view that the current situation could deteriorate rapidly are all too easily dismissed as cranks, extremists or undermining public confidence and should cease any attempt at "scare mongering" and ignore the true of the economic elephant in the corner.
You could put your faith in politicians, big business, a variety of gods, luck or fate. Personally I trust myself to be as aware, prepared and watchfull and rely on my own experience, training and judgement.
"And may God have mercy on our souls"
 

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SHTF constantly, just not always where we are.

If you where living in bagdad the last few years SHTF

SHTF in Afghanistan

SHTF in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina went through

SHTF in certain parts of Australia every year (up north its floods, down south its bushfires)

SHTF in parts of Africa constantly

You get the idea.
 

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Weed 'em and reap
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I believe that the main reason is due to basic inertia within society and the huge mass of people who are either uninformed or illinformed as to the true nature of the stress levels the world economy is under and the inherent dangers this contains.
The vast majority blindly expect their "bank note" to have some sort of magical value, not seemingly aware that it is a printed piece of paper with little practical use other than cleaning up after bodily functions. Those who do take the view that the current situation could deteriorate rapidly are all too easily dismissed as cranks, extremists or undermining public confidence and should cease any attempt at "scare mongering" and ignore the true of the economic elephant in the corner.
You could put your faith in politicians, big business, a variety of gods, luck or fate. Personally I trust myself to be as aware, prepared and watchfull and rely on my own experience, training and judgement.
"And may God have mercy on our souls"
I think you are right, but even beyond that there is this notion on the part of the talking heads that the same set of circumstances that has led to disaster every time in history will somehow be different this time, for no reason other than that they want it to be. And they want us to believe that their paternalistic and socialist solutions are somehow new and exciting and they will actually work this time, despite having failed in the long term every other time. They will cite examples (like Euro) who are currently riding the crest of the false economy boost as evidence that socialism and paternalism work. This myopic view of history will prove disastrous, but not until after they are dead, and their successors can blame any interceding libertarian/conservative/individualist influence for destroying the system. Just my $.02 :(
 

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... --- ...
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OK,granted, I'm a tin-foil wearing conspiracy "buff". :rolleyes:
That being said, I feel that though the powers that be may have the proverbial tiger by the tail, they still have a VERY firm grip.
Most of what we're stressing about has been engineered and planned for generations. Paul Warburg's oft-quoted statement before congress back in the 50's about having a "global government....by conquest or consent", is rapidly coming to fruition.
There will continue to be small,isolated SHTF's,as Kipper alluded to (while still missing the OP's actual point), but the big,jumbo,mac-daddy SHTF, or more accurately, TEOTWAWKI, is being intentionally held at bay. Considering that they contol the oil,the media,the banks and therefore,the governments,this isn't really that far-fetched.
You can't have a global government and economic system when chaos and anarchy prevail. Small stressors suit their purpose, a complete global crash, does not.
And that is why we will not see the total Mad-Max collapse so many here seem to eagerly anticipate.
As I've said before.....wake up,and prepare for what IS coming, rather than what you HOPE is coming.
 

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Gone Galt
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Patience grasshopper, your Armageddon will come...




...soon.

And you will have that moment of realization:

HOLLY S#IT! We were actually right!

...and then the nasty, smelly, deadly, brutal,

pure, simple, energetic action of survival will begin.


--- when we exercise our depth perception eyes close together, and scratch with our claws that have become clear rounded fingernails, and take advantage of the biological effect that jacks us up (sissy's call it fight or flight) I like to call it "goin berzerker!" :D:

to fight to survive, or die (VIOLENTLY) trying.


be careful what you wish for, because you will get it.
 

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Weed 'em and reap
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30,406 Posts
Patience grasshopper, your Armageddon will come...




...soon.

And you will have that moment of realization:

HOLLY S#IT! We were actually right!

...and then the nasty, smelly, deadly, brutal,

pure, simple, energetic action of survival will begin.


--- when we exercise our depth perception eyes close together, and scratch with our claws that have become clear rounded fingernails, and take advantage of the biological effect that jacks us up (sissy's call it fight or flight) I like to call it "goin berzerker!" :D:

to fight to survive, or die (VIOLENTLY) trying.


be careful what you wish for, because you will get it.
I don't think anyone was wishing for it. I do, however, share many peoples' opinions that it would be better to take our proverbial medicine now, before the infection spreads to the last few uninfected organs.
 

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Wanderer
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It already did, but the media is suppressing the story and no one knows about it yet. Well, almost no one, a few pay attention and they know.
 
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