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There have been some excellent topics here, and although I have been prepping for years, I seem to learn something new every time I log on here. Thanks to everyone for all their contributions; I've only been here a short time, but have found the information and knowledge outstanding.

Lots of questions have been posed about what could actually save our economy (excellent post, OhioMan), but I, like many of the responses prompted by OhioMan's thread, believe it is too late.

I think the only question is this:

Will it come fast, or slow?

I've heard some points of view that indicate there will be an initial shock, (a Black Swan event, an interesting topic in its own right) followed by a long, slow, collapse. One example, which seems likely mostly because of its simplicity, is a small nuke being found in a shipping container at the Port of Long Beach in California. It is the largest, busiest port in the U.S., with five to seven million shipping containers coming through the port each year.

If one small nuke (or bio agent) was discovered, the port - along with every other port in the country - would go on lockdown, with people demanding every container searched prior to allowing it onto a truck or train. This would back shipping up, and we would immediately begin to suffer shortages of virtually everything. We would have plenty of gas, because most interstate truck commerce would dry up.

So we'd have a situation with no (or very few) casualties, but our economy would dry up. With our current difficulties, we'd see a slow drain that would be unstoppable, and would probably never recover from.

And as OhioMan said, there are so many possibilities for a meltdown...
 

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Weed 'em and reap
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There have been some excellent topics here, and although I have been prepping for years, I seem to learn something new every time I log on here. Thanks to everyone for all their contributions; I've only been here a short time, but have found the information and knowledge outstanding.

Lots of questions have been posed about what could actually save our economy (excellent post, OhioMan), but I, like many of the responses prompted by OhioMan's thread, believe it is too late.

I think the only question is this:

Will it come fast, or slow?

I've heard some points of view that indicate there will be an initial shock, (a Black Swan event, an interesting topic in its own right) followed by a long, slow, collapse. One example, which seems likely mostly because of its simplicity, is a small nuke being found in a shipping container at the Port of Long Beach in California. It is the largest, busiest port in the U.S., with five to seven million shipping containers coming through the port each year.

If one small nuke (or bio agent) was discovered, the port - along with every other port in the country - would go on lockdown, with people demanding every container searched prior to allowing it onto a truck or train. This would back shipping up, and we would immediately begin to suffer shortages of virtually everything. We would have plenty of gas, because most interstate truck commerce would dry up.

So we'd have a situation with no (or very few) casualties, but our economy would dry up. With our current difficulties, we'd see a slow drain that would be unstoppable, and would probably never recover from.

And as OhioMan said, there are so many possibilities for a meltdown...
You speak about the precipitant as though it is a future event. The determining factors have already been undertaken. Like an infection, they will fester and spread and, if unchecked, they will manifest themselves in more and more symptoms.

A lot of what people comment on are exactly that: symptoms. And the government, instead of looking at the illness of our culture and its accelerating decay, focuses in on symptoms as well. Except instead of presribing medicines, they prescribe poisons. :(
 

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That's the million dollar question, I wish I knew. If forced to guess I see a continued slide downward, picking up pace as things progress on our way to the 3rd world. That's ruling out any wild cards.
 

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Well they are predicting another surge in foreclosures. If that is followed up by another bailout we are screwed. With our debt load if we **** off china over say Taiwan then we are boned. Competance in leadership is lacking right now. So significant incidents in the next 3-7 years could start the downward spiral.
 

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The people/citizens are the trigger. The collapse has been in motion for decades now.

But the question that people on these boards always try to get their arms around is the logical one of, "well why hasn't "it" happened yet"... and the answer is because "we" have allowed it to continue.

The event will most likely not be an outside force identifiable by magnitude, unless we have some type of natural disaster. It will be when the people of this great nation have had enough of their freedoms stripped away, that they fight back. Period.

The harshest truth of all is that we have the power. We always have. We will decide when enough is enough.

If the entire US population did not pay their taxes, that would send a pretty interesting message to Washington now wouldn't it? What will they do, jail us all?

If the entire US population did not vote and staged protests, that would send a pretty interesting message.

If we all did not show up for work tomorrow, that would send a message.

If we all took that step out and realized that things may be bad during our protests and during that period, but the ultimate goal will be a revolution and renewal, we would do it. But we cannot see past 10 minutes in this country. Heck, text messages take too long.

Nope. We sit back and take it and take it and take it and take it.

Other countries strike, they revolt, they rise up, they speak out, they demonstrate, they organize..... what do we do, in all honesty?

The breaking point is decided by us. If it is decided by an outside force, chances are there will be little left to discuss.
 

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i don't think it will be any one thing. we can come out of a depression, we have in the past. we can come out of environmental ruin. we can probably come out of any one thing, but it will be the combination of economic problems, environmental problems, apathy, and humans just being stupid animals, that will overwhelm us, slowly and surely, until one day we wake up and we realize we are in such a mess we can't get out of it.

i'd like to believe the final blow will be a martian invasion, but that's just to make it interesting and worth living through.
 

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The truth is no one knows, we can only react/prep to what we are seeing and what we have learned from history.

It might be that future historians will write about this time in the context of us being at the beginning of the melt-down, maybe it started a year or two ago, and we haven't fully realized the position we are in right now.

I see it as domino's falling, we have seen the domino's of banks, mortages and housing, jobs just beginning to fall and the government rushing in to set some of them back up.

The government is just a bunch of guys on the titanic with buckets trying to bail out the water. They might do some good, but the damage is is far worse than they realize and the water is still pouring in from the REAL problem.
 

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Sam Adams was right....
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...The government is just a bunch of guys on the titanic with buckets trying to bail out the water. They might do some good, but the damage is is far worse than they realize and the water is still pouring in from the REAL problem.

I kinda think of them as the band on the titanic... playing the same music as the ship goes under... :thumb:
 

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This is a question I've considered. And the conclusion I've come to is, the cause of a collapse would have to be catastrophic, unavoidable, and global. I see our current economic / political / social structure as being like a very interconnected spider web. You can snap strands, you can even snap anchor points, and the web as a whole will stay up, especially if the spider is able to make repairs. It's not that easy to destroy. To use the OP's example of a nationwide port shutdown, yes, that would have bad consequences. But new screening methods would be developed, idled factories would be reactivated to build what couldn't get in, given enough time we'd recover from such a blow quite well. Ditto with most natural disasters or the economic collapse some keep insisting is only days away; even if the scope of the problem was beyond the U.S.' capacity to deal with, the rest of the world would help, both for humanitarian reasons and because we're 'too big to fail'; if we go down, we'll take a lot of nations with us. So just like AIG or, on an international scale, Dubai, ways will be found to prevent a REAL meltdown. To bring about a total collapse, just as to destroy a well anchored web, you've got to inflict so much damage that there's either nothing left or what IS left falls apart under its own weight. Nuclear war, major meteor hit, Yellowstone blowing up, pandemic of unparalleled virulence, something - as I said - massive and global. I don't see such a thing in the future. I could be wrong about all this, humans can always find ways to screw things up (the stock market crash of '29 didn't cause the Depression, it was all those people panicking and rushing to their banks to draw out more money than was in print, crashing the banking system, that did it. Mob psychology is a worrisome thing). But if I'm not, then a lot of people really need to calm down...
 

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Nobody knows what will trigger the crash or whether it'll be fast or slow. It could be any number of possible scenarios from terrorism, natural disaster, economic crash to you name it. I can't remember a time in my life when we faced so many imminent risk factors all at once. The best we can do is keep prepping and keep our eyes open. All the predictions do is make us look like loons and they don't benefit us anyway.
 

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Collapses are caused by a change in attitude. Now sometimes that change in attitude is warranted. Take Haiti as an example. My frame of mind would definitely be badly displaced in a similar event. But how long a collapse lasts and how complete it will be depends entirely on how long it takes the people to realize that nothing of substance has changed. Crops can still grow. Infrastructure can still be built. This goes especially true for an economic collapse where absolutely nothing changed except for phantom electronic numbers on a phantom computer.
 

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sudden loss of oil imports is the most likely. natural cause such as earth quake or meteor is a possability, invasion from China, Russia or EU very low probability, internal or economic collapse is the least likely unless proceeded by one of the previous mentioned.
 

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Sooner or later our fiscal irresponsibility has to catch up with us.
If the soon to happen next housing bubble bailout doesn't do it.
Commercial real estate or California collapsing may.
Sooner or later the oil producing nations are going to say pay us in non dollars.
Hoo baby then hang on to your shorts.
 

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sudden loss of oil imports is the most likely. natural cause such as earth quake or meteor is a possability, invasion from China, Russia or EU very low probability, internal or economic collapse is the least likely unless proceeded by one of the previous mentioned.
Those of you who have not looked into peak oil really need to research this. Oil drives our economy and creates the incredible lifestyle we live. As the worlds demand for oil grows and more and more oil exporting nations become oil importing nations the effect on the U.S. will be quite dramatic. I would suggest looking at this site www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
 

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Im not sure what could cause it but if the USA stopped importing oil I think the global price would plummet and countries like Saudi Arabia would be in big trouble. As much trouble as we would be in without oil, they would be in without money.

In the long run we would make moves to drill alaska, and the offshore coast like never before.

The short term would be bumpy but the earth will never run out of gas completely, it will just gradually get more expensive. At some point it becomes more expensive than the alternative fuels we have or will develop.
 
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