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Anyone can be wrong. I've been wrong about many things in my life.

Nobody knows for certain which way this COVID-19 thing is going to go. It might burn out in the next month or so and have a global death toll something like H1N1 back in 2009, and be a minor footnote in history. Or it might infect 50% of the globe and kill 75 million people. Or it might be somewhere in between.

There's two stances here, two ways to potentially be wrong. And each has its costs.

I've bought a bunch of extra supples - 98% of which are supplies I use normally and will use up, without spoilage, over time. The remaining 2% I will have to find creative ways to use if this blows over with minimal damage. We've also locked down - we're not going out for now except for church, and delaying all our travel plans and family get-togethers until further notice.

The other stance, which sadly some in my extended family have espoused, is to do nothing, not change behaviors (shopping several times a week, constantly running to public events and large gatherings.

Now, one of us is going to be right. I really, really hope it's them and not me.

But there's a price to being wrong. What is that price?

Well, if I'm wrong, we will have pushed back a few of our major trips to later in the year, and will miss some gatherings that we'd like to have been at (many of those will be cancelled whether we like it or not, however). We'll use up the supplies we bought at no additional cost, and look back on this time as a memorable experience.

What the other is wrong? He'll be stuck having to make grocery runs in the midst of a raging pandemic, exposing himself and his family to extra risk that could send them to the hospital or worse. If the supply chains are disrupted, he may struggle to even get what he needs, even if there were not mobs of other people fighting over the same stuff.

I freely admit I hope I'm completely wrong and the only real price I pay is a joke at my expense at the family reunion about how tight my head was screwed on. But the COST of me being wrong I consider very low, versus the price of being wrong on the other end!
 

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Born 120 years too late.
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I HAVE tried to live my LE/preparation/security life by the mantra

"I would rather have it and not need it
than need it and not have it."

If I never use it all I can pass it on to the kids...
 

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I hope and pray we're wrong, nothing would make me happier than for this virus to die off. I hate worrying about my family and friends. I hate spending time and money on preps when I'd rather be doing other things.

On the other hand, if we're wrong I don't think the average family will ever prep again. No amount of warnings will have any effect.

But I'm very afraid we're right.
 

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Si vis pacem, para bellum
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I think the general consensus is that we all hope that this just fizzles out into a nothingburger. But just in case it does not, all we can do is prepare ourselves. To all that would say that this is nothing and they will not take any precautions all I have to say is that you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. I have people I care for very much that I have warned that this may be more than we know and they are not even trying to take precautions. It will be emotionally painful if they get this and pass from this Earth, but in the end, it was their decision. I did what I could to try and protect them, so I can live with that.
 

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Welcome to the rice field
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Chinese Swine flu (H1N1) infected 61 million people in the US and killed 12,000. Over time it became less fatal and just another seasonal bug. SARS-CoV-2 (aka covid-19) will in time follow the same path as humans gain antibodies. The question is how many will it infect, how many will it kill, and what will the broader impacts be.

I didn't sweat the China pig flu despite the fact that it was a legit threat and I probably should have. This is the first time most people have been able to watch a pandemic spread blow by blow. I hope to God this dies out. If it does, I haven't lost anything. I did buy another dozen #10 cans of mountain house in January before the prices shot up just to add a little padding between now and growing season. They're good for 25 years so I don't mind having them. Preparing for this doesn't stop me from doing the things I like to do. Hunting, fishing, riding my dirt bike, etc. Quarantines aren't as big of a deal in rural areas. I'm not stuck in an apartment. I'm not really sacrificing anything at this point.
 

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If they are wrong, a lot of preppers will look like morons and many will give it up, and hence be unprepared for the REAL big one. The prepping community will be gutted, many people will lose all credibility, it will be a generation before we recover.

The above is what I think is most likely to happen and I find it pretty depressing that after all this prep, this is what so many have chosen to shoot their wad on. I guess maybe we got tired of waiting and decided to just go with it thinking maybe this is the best chance we'll get at playing Plague.

If its the next plague, then the preppers who where paying attention are already ready for it and have been for a while. The normal people are going to die, and history happens.

Whatever the true ultimate threat level shakes out to be, the powers that be will almost certainly under react to it, as they always do.
 

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If they are wrong, a lot of preppers will look like morons and many will give it up, and hence be unprepared for the REAL big one. The prepping community will be gutted, many people will lose all credibility, it will be a generation before we recover.
I will take the contrarian view. A lot of preppers will not give up. They will be thankful they did not have to dip into their reserves and can continue to plan and save for "that day". The core community will survive just fine.

It will be those who panic bought in anticipation of days if not weeks of shortages. They will complain about how much they bought and how much they spent all for naught. They will have learned nothing from this. They will be the ones who will give up.
 

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Bad Moon Rising
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If they are wrong, a lot of preppers will look like morons and many will give it up, and hence be unprepared for the REAL big one. The prepping community will be gutted, many people will lose all credibility, it will be a generation before we recover.

The above is what I think is most likely to happen and I find it pretty depressing that after all this prep, this is what so many have chosen to shoot their wad on. I guess maybe we got tired of waiting and decided to just go with it thinking maybe this is the best chance we'll get at playing Plague.

If its the next plague, then the preppers who where paying attention are already ready for it and have been for a while. The normal people are going to die, and history happens.

Whatever the true ultimate threat level shakes out to be, the powers that be will almost certainly under react to it, as they always do.
By definition, most of the folks on the forum have at least the inclination to prepare for sudden, calamitous events. Most have made at least *some* preparations, and/or are certainly open to the concept that preparation is a good thing.

I can see where you're coming from, but if it isn't one thing it's another - the only thing we can count on is that something will happen. If this turns out to be a non-problem in another couple months [and it is already (if you can believe the reports) diminishing as a crisis in China], I don't think a lot of us would give it up and think they were morons for over-reacting. Preparedness is just our natural inclination for many folks here. Its more like a way of life or basic perspective. You don't give it up because the (hurricane, earthquake, whatever) doesn't happen.

You basically eat the stuff you bought that you would have bought and eaten anyway, and feel grateful that you didn't get spanked any harder.

Better to be prepared, and realize you didn't need it (this time), than to be unprepared and lucky. Someday they might not be so lucky.

:eek::
 

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Over and Out
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...The question is ...what will the broader impacts be....
^ THIS. Sorry friends, but.. IMO, we're already Way Past the 'nothingburger' point.. Supply-chains have been broken, businesses have (or will shortly be..) gone under, the political and financial-landscapes HAVE had a huge 'rock thrown in thier pond' from this, already, and in my mind, it's only a question of just how far-reaching / how high the 'ripples' / waves will Be..

...Even IF this 'stops killing on a dime' - Right Now, Today - I think we've only just begun to see the 'Other ripples' from what's Already collapsed, from this all.. Seeing very large / million-moving-parts-complex events like SXSW, and all the large multimillion-dollar Tradeshows / Conferences that have belly-upped thus far, is Going to have down-the-road impacts, though 'How bad' is really incalcuable right now.. Not to mention what's happen(ing) to the 'cruise' and Airline industries, et al..

...But, to the OPs point (which, I know the above was not Centered-on..) really, there's very little that you've stocked up on, that will or might be 'waste'.. ie: Sure, if you drop $10K on a hospital-grade O2 concentrator or something 'exotic' like that, well.. When this calms-down, the value of that spend might be.. Questionable. (then again, you could always just resell it.. Or, ya know - wiserly, just 'save it for the Second Wave in the Fall'.. :xeye:

..Overall, to Me, 'prepping' / stocking-up extra of what you live-on / back-ups for what you use to function is never a 'right or wrong' - it's just a smart 'Savings account', since we all know the 'almighty dollar', isn't, and Will at some point, sprout wings and fly away...

..I just hope that, by come this Summer, the situ is Not that the Least of our 'problems' is this Bug... 9/11 was a prime example of 'zero to chaos', overnight, and paved the way for some Pretty nefarious / insideous 'Gov overreach' that we still suffer / is only getting worse.. Here's hoping that this is Not that, v2.0. :cool:

.02
jd
 

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I swing between holding on to my normalcy bias and finalising last minute top ups for an extended quarantine.

Psychologically speaking, I think that's a pretty normal response to watching a slow moving (relatively speaking not like an earthquake) disaster apparently moving your way.

We've spent probably $100 on things we wouldn't normally by, everything else we will use anyway.

And I'm getting my long awaited wicking bed vegie garden sorted this week - something I wanted anyway after not being able to have one for years due to limited water.

I was 'theoretically' aware of how others might behave...but definitely wasn't prepared for what the panicked sheep are already doing.

I am concerned that *if* this isn't the big one, then its going to be widely seen as a 'boy who cried wolf' scenario. Heck even my own family will hesitate to heed my warning to be prepared.

On the other hand, even if this is not the killer virus, the economic impact is not going to get fixed overnight so I'm comfortable knowing that I have hedged my bets both ways :)
 

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By definition, most of the folks on the forum have at least the inclination to prepare for sudden, calamitous events. Most have made at least *some* preparations, and/or are certainly open to the concept that preparation is a good thing.

I can see where you're coming from, but if it isn't one thing it's another - the only thing we can count on is that something will happen. If this turns out to be a non-problem in another couple months [and it is already (if you can believe the reports) diminishing as a crisis in China], I don't think a lot of us would give it up and think they were morons for over-reacting. Preparedness is just our natural inclination for many folks here. Its more like a way of life or basic perspective. You don't give it up because the (hurricane, earthquake, whatever) doesn't happen.

You basically eat the stuff you bought that you would have bought and eaten anyway, and feel grateful that you didn't get spanked any harder.

Better to be prepared, and realize you didn't need it (this time), than to be unprepared and lucky. Someday they might not be so lucky.

:eek::

I'm more skeptical. I think most people on this forum, 90%+ are only casual preppers. People who just like guns, vote conservative, and have a couple weeks worth of food and water and like the 'idea' of prepping but don't want it to cut into their normal lifestyle and so have never taken it further. People who won't live any longer than the muggles when SHTF but will be noisier about dying.

Right now all these people are really excited and jumping to suddenly practice what they preach...but IF it doesn't turn out to be anything, will immediately revert and try to forget how easily they panicked. They will feel 'burned' by the prepping 'hobby' even though it was just their own fault for adopting the pop culture version of it rather than the nuts and bolts lifestyle.
 

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Comic, not your lawyer!
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I HOPE I AM EMBARRASSINGLY WRONG AND EAT CROW.

Unfortunately, there's no evidence of this stopping on its own and given the ability to mutate (as a feature or ability) a successful vaccine in the near term is a fantasy. Remember we are 40+ years and maybe a trillion dollars into funding a HIV vaccine and to my knowledge we don't have a successful one.

This virus is really really bad, based on government reactions. Full biohazard suits and teams, about 1/2 the worlds populations is currently under some form of lock down, quarantine, travel bans, etc. This must be costing nations billions of dollars daily in lost trade and labor. Equity markets and futures on various things like oil are collapsing, down now some 15% in 2 weeks. The evidence cannot be ignored at how those in the "know" are aware of facts that cause this unprecedented action.

So, yes, I'm in the "prepper" group that has paid attention and done everything in my power to protect myself in all manners. My preps cost me almost nothing more than just an advance on my grocery bill. And considering I bought in massive bulk, bought deals before the rush, and bought smartly, and won't have to make extra trips to the store (added costs of making trips) doing it smartly has and will save money. I bought nothing that isn't of use or value. I personally feel pretty well situated at the moment.

I've argued with several "just the flu" folks. Tried to convince them this was big, weeks ago. They refused to listen, just regurgitating flu death stats, and making fun with memes. Guess what they are doing now? They are complaining they can't buy toilet paper and other necessities. And now some of them are waking up to this and posting questions and inquiries on the forums. It's hard to not be the "I told you so" person.

I hope I'm wrong. But with exponential and compounding math and the rate this is spreading across the world, it's basically about doubling every few days. We stand to see millions and tens of millions infected this year or next. And even if there's a really small death rate the body count is going to impact a lot of people and be devastating. I hope it all goes away tomorrow leaving me with an embarrassing large amount of toilet paper. I fear it's going to be bad.
 

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I'm more skeptical. I think most people on this forum, 90%+ are only casual preppers. People who just like guns, vote conservative, and have a couple weeks worth of food and water and like the 'idea' of prepping but don't want it to cut into their normal lifestyle and so have never taken it further. People who won't live any longer than the muggles when SHTF but will be noisier about dying.

Right now all these people are really excited and jumping to suddenly practice what they preach...but IF it doesn't turn out to be anything, will immediately revert and try to forget how easily they panicked. They will feel 'burned' by the prepping 'hobby' even though it was just their own fault for adopting the pop culture version of it rather than the nuts and bolts lifestyle.
I agree.


If they are unprepared for "the next one"....

That's their problem.

I'll be replacing what I use as soon as this is over, and likely adding more.
 

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as preppers.... we mitigate future risks by preparing for them... but we often skew prep acquisition towards goods that fall in the "I'll eventually use it anyways" category. We get things like food, toilet paper, clothing, etc.... that are kinda universally needed across the board.


Pandemics aren't typically on the list of risks to mitigate, so the items one should stockpile are specific in nature. As a result, I had a large knowledge and stores gap regarding respirators and filtration.


That gap is now much smaller....
 
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