Survivalist Forum banner
1 - 20 of 86 Posts

·
Founder
Joined
·
16,867 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
How does a government keep its people pacified? Work them. Work them 10 and 12 hours a day. Let them earn enough to buy a home, buy a car, have a family and take a rare vacation.

In other words, like what China is doing to its factory workers.

Let's say Trump holds true to ending free trade. American based companies are forced to bring their factories and jobs back to the United States. This means a downturn in the economy of China.

As we have seen in the past, communism does not foster innovation. Capitalism fosters innovation.

China has been relying on United States companies for innovation and jobs. Without those jobs, factories close and massive amounts of people are let go.

Then what happens? Civil unrest.

China will need something to keep their people focused on Chinese nationalism.

How does any nation create a sense of nationalism?

They start a war. They point the finger at someone, say they are the enemy and start a war.


Ghost Cities

Have any of you read about the Chinese ghost cities? These are entire cities where nobody lives.

It has been speculated that the ghost cities were built to shore up the Chinese economy. The Chinese government spent an known amount of money building these cities with the single goal of creating jobs.

I speculate China built the cities in anticipation of having to relocate millions of people.

Limited Nuclear War

Let's say a couple of Chinese cities are destroyed, where would millions of people go? Well, they just "happen" to have several ghost cities built ready.

Let's say a couple of United States cities are destroyed, where would millions of people go? They have nowhere to go.

China closes the old cities off, turns them into a no go zone and everybody has a place to stay.

United States is a whole different situation. We thought relocating a few neighborhoods out of New Orleans was bad after Katrina? Relocate New York, Dallas, Houston and Washington D.C.

Who is the winner

In the long run, China is the winner from a limited nuclear strike. Everyone who needs to be relocated has housing waiting on them.

The United States has no such ability to relocate millions, nor can we afford to rebuild.

How do you rebuild a city that took centuries to build? New York city was founded in the 1600s. How do we rebuild a city that has taken 400 years to build?

Thoughts?

I hope I am wrong.

However, without innovation from the United States, China has no way to compete on the global market.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,991 Posts
China is too smart to get in a nuclear war with the U.S. They wouldn't do it for the same reason that the U.S.S.R. didn't do it: mutually assured destruction.

With the exception of some Islamic extremists and a handful of others, few people in the world are willing to kill their enemy at the expense of their own life.

Let's be clear here: there are NO WINNERS in a nuclear war, irregardless of the scale.

China doesn't need trade with the U.S. in order to achieve innovation. They'll have it the way they have it right now: theft of intellectual property. IP rights mean nothing to the Chinese, and they are well known on the international scene to not enforce IP laws among their own people. They will steal IP by any means necessary, including computer hacking, which they already do on a massive scale.

What Chinda does need from the U.S. is for us to buy their stuff. Nuking us (and vice versa) doesn't solve that problem, and they aren't that short-sighted, especially since we owe them trillions of dollars. They'll want their money back.

I suspect that in some way, China will go along with at least some of Trump's demands simply because they currently have no viable alternative.
 

·
Wile E Coyote, Genius.
Joined
·
34,871 Posts
I think the US will conduct a limited war with China to knock them off their stolen South Sea artificial Islands. (limited to whatever Air and naval assets are in the area.)

First we will order them to vacate the islands and I assume they will refuse. China's ego is immense. Then I assume they will nationalize US JV investments in China. Direct trade would then stop with a trade embargo.

So my idea would be to make sure you have whatever Cheap Chinese tools and supplies stocked up to tide you over until US manufacturing can rebuild itself. Some China goods may or may not still make their way to the US through trans-shipments via intermediary countries.

Or China may flinch in a showdown and voluntarily lose face, but that is hard to imagine.

But barring war, we could certainly see various tariffs being placed on goods in both directions, which would result in a slower build up of US manufacturing, but with consumers certainly having to pay more for Domestically produced goods and tariffed imports.

China has become an important market for US car companies, so we will experience some economic pain as well.

But better than doing nothing, which is surely destroying the US and allowing China to steal trillions in subsea oil reserves, and project military power into the Phillippines/Taiwan/Vietnam region in preparation for conquest..

Just my take on things. I have no crystal ball.

And I agree there would not be any nuclear war, as everyone loses that scenario.
 

·
Wile E Coyote, Genius.
Joined
·
34,871 Posts
The Chinese will capitulate. The buyer is always right. If we walk away from the table they have nothing. In terms of a war, only a insane person starts a war they know they're will lose. They won't do it.
Agreed if they think the way we do. But they don't.

Losing face is worse than death for them. Couple that with a national confidence inspired by their amazing transformation in the last 30 years and you get a dangerous decision making process.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
390 Posts
Had a friend once who decided he wouldn't buy anything from China. He could not find one pair of shoes in our town that wasn't from China. Ditto for VCRs (this was a few years back). Trump can't and won't end trade with China. If anything he'll just tilt the playing field here and there to slow our dependence and encourage US manufacturing. It will take place gradually and everyone will adjust.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
348 Posts
It's much too early to worry about that. Look at Apple, some say it's an American company despite the fact that all its products are made in China. It could bring back some of the jobs in the US, but this is precision manufacturing. It will take years to build factories, train the workers and organize production. This is going to be a very slow process...
 

·
Wile E Coyote, Genius.
Joined
·
34,871 Posts
Had a friend once who decided he wouldn't buy anything from China. He could not find one pair of shoes in our town that wasn't from China. Ditto for VCRs (this was a few years back). Trump can't and won't end trade with China. If anything he'll just tilt the playing field here and there to slow our dependence and encourage US manufacturing. It will take place gradually and everyone will adjust.
Did you mean to say the "Far East" instead of "China"?

Those things are made in S. Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, for the US market I would say as much as China.
 

·
Inglorious Deplorable
Joined
·
21,135 Posts
Kev has a good point.

The 10 to 12 hour days are to keep the protesters out of Tiananmen Square.

China will have to strike first and fast. If they wait for a downturn in the economy, the protesters will be in the square on Monday and will join the civil war by Friday.

If we change our policy on a dime, China will crash. They will have to take drastic measures.

Meanwhile, we have all seen Trump's big talk on the campaign trail that turns into moderated policies. The warning has been put out. The demands at the bargaining table will be less than the talking points and they will be implemented in a manageable time frame.

China can launch, which will not be countered with a proportional strike, or they can address the there challenges over time.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,991 Posts
If we change our policy on a dime, China will crash. They will have to take drastic measures.

China can launch, which will not be countered with a proportional strike, or they can address the there challenges over time.
Destroying your biggest customer (along with yourself) is not wise.

And if you think that China will launch nukes against us without likewise retaliation, you are very wrong.
 

·
Inglorious Deplorable
Joined
·
21,135 Posts
Destroying your biggest customer (along with yourself) is not wise.

And if you think that China will launch nukes against us without likewise retaliation, you are very wrong.
Exactly.

Obommer would act stupidly and cut us a bad deal or push them over the edge.

I see nothing to worry about when this issue is going to be dealt with by successful businessmen and negotiators.
 
1 - 20 of 86 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top