[Admiral Nelson]

I’m curious what others in here pay attention to and give credence to. This is just my opinion, but I’m convinced that national, state and county unemployment figures are far from accurate. The figures are always under-reported and the method for gathering them is extremely flawed.

The NAR tells you now is the best time to buy a home because prices have bottomed out. (heard that before?). The government, the media and banks neglect informing the public just how large the shadow inventory is because they would prefer the public continue to soften the blow.

Mortgage interest rates are still low, yet 97% of the residential mortgage market is influenced by the government either by regulation, intervention or both. Phoney rates? You bet.
“Affordable housing” is still being built and financed with government graft, so new construction figures are still a lie. Plus, the figures from last year were skewed from all the $8,000 tax credits.

The DOW and NASDAQ cannot be relied on any more due to QE2 and other government games with the taxpayers’ money.

The only figures that I can rely on are local wages, local rents, the price of gas and the price of food. Rent and wages have always been a reliable indicator for local real estate in areas without rent control, now they seem to be the only reliable indicators for the fake economy we're in. Any others? Please don’t say the price of gold because that’s a topic in itself.

 

[hypervel]

I figure the Dow etc. are OK to look at, as long as aggregate P/E is taken into account. Commodities are a generally acceptable indicator of many things-worth watching if you know what's not being openly reported.
Seems you want concrete indicators, and I only come up with cost of living issues.
Anecdotal local stuff (for me) lies in the automotive repair world. I am seeing rattier cars coming in. 3 years ago was all about RV/trailer/new truck stuff. Not so much any more. Word from a local tire guy has it that folks are running tires until bare.
Another macro indicator is the unintelligible BULL coming from the Bigs at their constant downside surprises and estimates.
Look back to the early years of the Depression. It might take some digging, but you might note history is muchly rhyming. I haven't the info on me but I remember a Dow chart tied into Gov and banking officials from the time about how everything was gonna be A-OK at every turn.
Then there was war.

 

[seawind]

The fact there seems to be no trustworthy Benchmarks is what causes the hair on the back of my neck to stand up!

 

[gettingthere51]

It is all a smoke screen to keep the people quiet while they rob us blind. The end game has been collapse, the benchmarks are just telling you how far down the crapper we are.

Check out the mortgage cure rates for 60 days or more late, it is not a pretty picture of the second housing collapse.

Check out all the states/cities talking/looking at bankruptcy.

We are dead broke, this ball of lies is coming undone now.

 

[Admiral Nelson]

Word from a local tire guy has it that folks are running tires until bare.

Thanks for mentioning that. I know a guy who owns a big tire and auto center, haven't seen him in a while, but in previous downturns he used to have a good grasp of what was going on since transportation is as critical as housing, yet it doesn't have the government tinkering factor when it comes to the maintenance end of it.

 

[MIL-DOT]

The fact there seems to be no trustworthy Benchmarks is what causes the hair on the back of my neck to stand up!

Great point :thumb:. The PTB have been allowed to grow to the point that they have their fingers in virtually every pie, and are able to manipulate things like never before in history, and more and more, they're doing it right out in the open.
I think some kind of "controlled crash" is coming, bringing just enough stress and panic for the masses to grab at whatever lifeline "appears", but still maintaining just enough stability and order for them to remain in control.

 

[goose3]

What do I pay attention to?

The dollar index: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND

The value of a Euro in dollars: EURO/DOL

The value and trends in silver: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

The value and trends in gold: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

And, of course, the general stock market: http://finance.yahoo.com/

BTW, one of the better sites I've found is Zerohedge. Some of the better and more insightful analysis I've seen. http://www.zerohedge.com/

 

[nkjones1]

What do I pay attention to?

The dollar index: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND

The value of a Euro in dollars: EURO/DOL

The value and trends in silver: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

The value and trends in gold: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

And, of course, the general stock market: http://finance.yahoo.com/

BTW, one of the better sites I've found is Zerohedge. Some of the better and more insightful analysis I've seen. http://www.zerohedge.com/

I wish I could double thank you for mentioning zerohedge.:thumb:

 

[Branned]

What do I pay attention to?

The value of Silver/Gold.

The value of fuel at the pump.

The value of Food; corn, grain, sugar, etc.

I do not put much stock in the general stock market and gov't Inflation/Unemployment numbers.

BTW, some of the better sites I've found is this one and http://www.survivalblog.com/.

I like to listen to Gerald Celente, Jim Rogers, and Chris Martenson (The Crash Course).

 

[Sundsvall]

John William has a site called Shadowstats.com. He was Reagan's economic advisor. He runs the inflation figures with the same methodology as they did then, before all of the relevant data was stripped out.

Mike Maloney and others like to measure gold and silver against pretty much everything, however, the thresholds are questionable, as they are only an opinion, just like everyone else's best guess.

 

[wootie]

LOL. Ever since 1914 the economy has followed the CHANGE in womens hemlines. No one knows why, but it does. Go to the mall, get yourself a cup of coffee and cruise the hall and check out the store windows. Short skirts mean the economy will turn up, long skirts mean stockpile everything. It may not be scientific but it's more fun than watching some "expert" on a talk show trying to sell his book. Have fun.

 

[nbforrest]

Food prices

Gas Prices

Zombies and how often my ex wife "needs" money.

 

[Sticks440]

Spot physical silver (although the paper trade tends to skew that), spot USDX, CME index's. My TA tends to be commodity based.

 

[charlie - uk]

I’m curious what others in here pay attention to and give credence to. This is just my opinion, but I’m convinced that national, state and county unemployment figures are far from accurate. The figures are always under-reported and the method for gathering them is extremely flawed.

The NAR tells you now is the best time to buy a home because prices have bottomed out. (heard that before?). The government, the media and banks neglect informing the public just how large the shadow inventory is because they would prefer the public continue to soften the blow.

Mortgage interest rates are still low, yet 97% of the residential mortgage market is influenced by the government either by regulation, intervention or both. Phoney rates? You bet.
“Affordable housing” is still being built and financed with government graft, so new construction figures are still a lie. Plus, the figures from last year were skewed from all the $8,000 tax credits.

The DOW and NASDAQ cannot be relied on any more due to QE2 and other government games with the taxpayers’ money.

The only figures that I can rely on are local wages, local rents, the price of gas and the price of food. Rent and wages have always been a reliable indicator for local real estate in areas without rent control, now they seem to be the only reliable indicators for the fake economy we're in. Any others? Please don’t say the price of gold because that’s a topic in itself.

Clearly the official benchmarks are flawed. The problem with the housing sector is almost impossible, huge tracts of suberban sprawl, that will become ghettos when the price of oil goes over $400 a barrel.

Any person buying a house should ensure that it is in a small sustainable community. Or a a small pre-1940 town within easy walking reach of the town centre. We cannot continue basing our lives around the car, sooner rather than later we won't be able to afford to do so.

The government chooses to prop up the 'flawed housing market' because the alternative is unthinkable. Anyone investing in suberban sprawl will soon find themselves with a worthless investment that no-one wants to live in.

An overall view of the 'market' gives a good perspective on whats going on. Gold , Oil, Gas prices also tell there own story......