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What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?

http://www.survivalblog.com/2008/09/letter_re_what_are_the_economi.html

Some of us may be stuck within the city limits until 'the last possible moment' before an event such as WTSHTF. Can you suggest a day-to-day procedure or strategy to now follow for monitoring specific and reliable news outlets or information sources in determining when our G.O.O.D. action plan should be initiated? . Obviously, many people such as myself, have all the 'other' recommended Rawles preparations in place but are still at a disadvantage from those that were able to set up their retreat ahead of time and to have evacuated from a city. It's the best that I can do, at this point.

Additionally, the economic news events these days are so wild and crazy that it's hard to discern what main event, 'red flag' or 'markers' should precipitate an exit out of the city without further doubt or hesitation.

Brushing up on 'common sense and logic' doesn't hurt here, but it's the expectation that some specific chain-of-events will take place that categorically shout now that I'm speaking of. Can you give us your personal view on what these catalyst events could be? Thank you, - Ken R.

JWR Replies: There are far too many variables in the current situation for me to be able point to just one key "trigger" or "gating" indicator.

Be ready, but don't panic. I must caution SurvivalBlog readers: "Don't give up your day job." Unless you are retired, or have a stable and substantial secondary cash flow from investments or a home-based business, it would be highly imprudent to quit your job (or start burning vacation hours) and move to your retreat.

My advice: Watch the news carefully and be ready to leave on short notice. As I've previously mentioned, it is very important to pre-position the vast majority of your key logistics at your retreat, under the watchful eye of a caretaker or a trusted neighbor.

When the time comes, you may only have the opportunity to make one trip to your retreat before highways become impassable.

Here are some important indicators to watch for, in my humble estimation.

(Witnessing just one of these won't be surely indicative, but if we see several of these...) :
1. A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate

2. News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked

3. Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers

4. Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday

5. Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets)

6. A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day

7. A large and sudden spike in inflation

8. Any suspension of US stock trading

9. Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits)

10. New restrictions on either precious metals purchasing reporting requirements

11. New limits on moving funds outside the US

12. Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.)

13. News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions

14. News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV)

15. The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading.

16. Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.)

17. Rioting in several metropolitan centers simultaneously. Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce

18. News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities

19. News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper

20. A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.

21. The Treasury starts to extensively monetize debt.

22. The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman.

23. Mel Gibson moves to
 
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