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117 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
So, I have noticed a lot of talk on how massively the web bot guys failed in their prediction of October 7th going down in history as the day that changed the world. Now, I know in the times of infotainment we expect exploding buildings, mass destruction or rioting on big events, but perhaps this one is a bit more subtle.

A pretty much the time they predicted Iceland has nationalized their banks and are standing right in front of the ledge that will lead them into national bankruptcy. Sure, most people have never been to Iceland, bought anything made there, or think because it's called Iceland it must be covered in ice. However, there are a few things that make this bigger than one might think:

Iceland is essentially Europe - major banking ties have developed (especially with the UK) and there has also been talks of joining the EU a while back.
While not in the top ranks of financial players their financing activities provide a lot o grease for the credit wheels around the world (for example financing of fishing fleets).

In the past many major conflicts can trace their origin back to one defining event. WWI was start by the execution of the archduke Franz Ferdinand, The US moved into the European front of WW2 after the sinking of the Lusitania etc. Most people will say that in an isolated view these two example although tragic, really didn't matter that much. I believe Iceland might be the next domino to fall to trigger a more massive effect in Europe.

On the US front, we are seeing Bank of America slashing their dividend by 50% and attempting a $10bn capital increase, which if it does go through will have to go at a much lower price than they had hoped. CNBC is reporting that the book is 2/3 filled (which brokers apparently are telling fund managers - this means more like 3/8th, max 1/2 is subscribed. Remember, you don't get demand by telling people tons more are available). Although BOA would be away from the predicted hour it also has the potential of setting off a landslide.

I believe that if BOA can not fill its cap. increase, there will be massive selling of BOA tomorrow when trading opens up - also, short selling rule on financials expires today. Trust will be massively eroded and you have the real potential for a bank run.

As of now the market is down at 9447 at the closing bell, with trades still being accounted for...... something is definitely in the air and even after helicopter ben is now also a lender to business and buying up commercial papers there is ZERO trusts in the financial sector.

Just my thoughts are spending too much time at the bloomberg screens and tracking the news. BOA cap increase announcement should be out shortly

117 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
That's true - I keep forgetting about the debate. I guess in my mind it's because I just don't see an election very likely anymore I guess ;-)

The surely would account for the 40% military aspect of the prediction.

2,186 Posts
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Anthrax "Emergency" Powers Declared by DHHS

This was read into the Federal Register Monday. Think about the timing for a minute and then read details:

ACTION: Notice.


SUMMARY: Declaration pursuant to section 319F-3 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 247d-6d) to provide targeted liability protections for anthrax countermeasures based on a credible risk that the threat of exposure to Bacillus anthracis and the resulting disease constitutes a public health emergency.

DATES: This notice and the attached declaration are effective as of the date of signature of the declaration.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: RADM W.C. Vanderwagen, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Office of the Secretary, Department of Health and Human Services, 200 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20201, Telephone (202) 205-2882 (this is not a toll-free number).

HHS Secretary's Declaration for Utilization of Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act for Anthrax Countermeasures (emphasis added - G)

Whereas significant changes in the nature, regularity and degree of threats to health posed by the use of infectious agents as weapons of biological warfare have generated increased concern for the safety of the general American population particularly following the deliberate exposure of citizens in the

[[Page 58240]]

United States to Bacillus anthracis (B. anthracis) spores in 2001 that demonstrated the ease of dissemination, infectivity, and mortality; Whereas the Secretary of Homeland Security has determined that B. anthracis and multi-drug-resistant B. anthracis present a material threat against the United States population, sufficient to affect national security; Whereas there are covered countermeasures to treat, identify, or prevent adverse health consequences or death from exposure to B. anthracis; Whereas such countermeasures, including vaccines, antimicrobials/ antibiotics, and antitoxins for pre-exposure and post-exposure prevention and treatment, diagnostics to identify such exposure, and additional countermeasures for treatment of adverse events arising from use of these countermeasures exist or may be the subject of research and/or development; Whereas such countermeasures may be used and administered in accordance with Federal contracts, cooperative agreements, grants, interagency agreements, and memoranda of understanding, and may also be used and administered at the Regional, State, and local level in accordance with the public health and medical response of the Authority Having Jurisdiction; Whereas, the possibility of governmental program planners obtaining stockpiles from private sector entities except through voluntary means such as commercial sale, donation, or deployment would undermine national preparedness efforts and should be discouraged as provided for in section 319F-3(b)(2)(E) of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 247d-6d(b)) (``the Act''); Whereas, immunity under section 319F-3(a) of the Act should be available to governmental program planners for distributions of Covered Countermeasures obtained voluntarily, such as by (1) Donation; (2) commercial sale; (3) deployment of Covered Countermeasures from Federal stockpiles; or (4) deployment of donated, purchased, or otherwise voluntarily obtained Covered Countermeasures from State, local, or private stockpiles; Whereas, the extent of immunity under section 319F-3(a) of the Act afforded to a governmental program planner that obtains covered countermeasures except through voluntary means is not intended to affect the extent of immunity afforded other covered persons with respect to such covered countermeasures. Whereas, in accordance with section 319F-3(b)(6) of the Act, I have considered the desirability of encouraging the design, development, clinical testing or investigation, manufacturing, labeling, distribution, formulation, packaging, marketing, promotion, sale, purchase, donation, dispensing, prescribing, administration, licensing, and use of such countermeasures with respect to the category of disease and population described in sections II and IV below, and have found it desirable to encourage such activities for the covered countermeasures; and Whereas, to encourage the design, development, clinical testing or investigation, manufacturing and product formulation, labeling, distribution, packaging, marketing, promotion, sale, purchase, donation, dispensing, prescribing, administration, licensing, and use of medical countermeasures with respect to the category of disease and population described in sections II and IV below, it is advisable, in accordance with section 319F-3(a) and (b) of the Act, to provide immunity from liability for covered persons, as that term is defined at section 319F-3(i)(2) of the Act, and to include as such covered persons such other qualified persons as I have identified in section VI of this declaration; Therefore, pursuant to section 319F-3(b) of the Act, I have determined there is a credible risk that the threat of exposure of B. anthracis and the resulting disease constitutes a public health emergency.


We're not sure what to make of this, but the timing is odd, near as we we can figure...

When's this a "Crash?"

I'm not sure how far down the Dow has to go in what period of time to be considered a 'crash'. Is it the 4,000 point/30% level? Is it a thousand point volatility in two trading days? hardly seems to be a point to asking except to note that as the Dow's short-term rally seems to be toast for the moment, the Time Monks have sent ups this update to their subscribers which we've been given exclusive permission to post:"

Salve omnes,

Sorry this email is so late. It was a trying night with very few hours of sleep. And since then waaaay too many phone calls...

well, Igor informs me that we shifted over into release language sometime around 6:15 am UTC this morning.

We have 'pegged' several circumstances which were ongoing at the time of the shift. These are not necessarily proximate causes, but they do provide the flavor of the moment, and may be guides for the continuing release language that will wash over all of us these next few month.

Russia Buys Iceland 1) the major banks in Iceland had failed. The Icelandic government had rather foolishly, but out of necessity, guarantee *ALL* bank deposits. This had developed prior to this morning. What occurred this morning was the announcement that the banks in question had deposits that ran several times the Icelandic GDP. 1.a) Subsequently, *after* being informed that the EU will not/cannot help them, the Icelandic gov't has turned to Russia for assistance. Russia has agreed to provide the Icelandic gov't with necessary funds of sufficient amount to help them out 'for a few days'. The language around the Icelandic currency failure went from 'worry' into expressions of 'dire' and 'calamitous' very rapidly early this morning.

EU Splinters 2) a meeting in France this morning of the EU official 'finance ministers' was a dud. It was such a dud as to produce a sudden, precipitous change in language around the whole of the EU as a context within our modelspace. This single meeting may be the actual pivotal point for the EU as an organization of nation states. Basically what happened is that the EU politicians in the meeting agreed to take actions which are /were meaningless, such as a 'deposit guarantee' that is now raised, but still is far less than any of the member countries individual deposit guarantees. Thus effectively taking no action at all. Further it is rumored that the attendees of the meeting expressed agreement with the idea of *not* coordinating rate cuts with the Federal Reserve Bank of the USofA. This likely will be seen in the future as *the* moment that the EU began to only crumble back into Europe. (rather than the spectactular Irish vote to kick the EU elite in the crotch). BBC reportedly saying that the "EU is in the ****ter...can someone please flush". Other reports have the attendees of the meeting actually running with their aides in tow to avoid having to face any press.

RBS Clearinghouse 'failing' 3) The Royal Bank of Scotland reportedly, this morning, begun seeking a 'recapitalization' so that they may continue their clearinghouse functions. The story coming out via rumors is that RBS is/has run into liquidity issues regarding their ability to handle transactions from other banks. This is also, according to rumor, affecting the currency trades globally. There is now some small substantiation that several of the governmental agencies approached have 'kicked the problem upstairs' as being beyond their ability to accept. The language within the articles and rumors of the RBS capitalization issues is decidedly in the release category.

France to guarantee deposits for its citizens/banks 4) yet another country within the EU collective has had to declare is own intention to guarantee is own banking struture and its citizens deposits separate from the EU. This is *potentially* another Iceland problem as the total insured deposits are rumored to be several times the GDP of France. Yet another nail in the EU coffin.

5) LIBOR rates are still screwed, and banks are still failing, globally, and pretty much any and all banks which got into the SIVs, CDOs or other 'specialty vehicles'. Note such headlines... and the timing...

6) various military components are also expressing themselves. This includes Iran and airplanes as well as Israeli TeeVee and their open discussion of the 'attack on Iran' being 'vetoed' by TPTB due to fears of huge losses of American soldiers and mercenaries in Iraq should Iran retaliate.

7)...other economic details piling up.... where from here.

Firstly there were many emails from people who, in their minds, heard 9/11 and disregarded what we are saying about the emotional tones. They were of the opiniion that 9/11 meant some form of attack, probably nuke-lar, and they were disappointed?!...

What we maintain, is that from this point forward, the release language grows, daily, and at intensity levels which are greater than 9/11. We are already seeing this. Go read some of the icelandic media, and the release language is clearly there to be seen. There are several millions of people globally already affected by the crumbling of the icelandic banking system/currency, and that will grow as the currency disease spreads about the planet over these next weeks and months.

We have shifted into release language. It is dominant now (marginally) and as the days progress, and bank after bank, country after country begin to topple as the currency dies beneath their power structure, the expressions of the release language will grow. By the time that we (the planet) reaches February 19th, we will all be totally sick of the release form of language.

Oh, and given our track record of being a few days early, it would not surprise us to find that this is another situation as in Pakistan and the capitulation of Mussaref where in the 'negociations' were done on the day we had chosen, but the announcement and the implementation came the following day.

Our best guess as to scenario goes to a continuing, inexorable, grinding down of the global economy as a result of the dying of the usofa dollar. We expect that each day brings more release language, and more behavior alteration which begats even more release langauge as it all piles after day after day for months. With a few exciting release gasps thrown in just as seasoning on the mix.

Oh, and by the way, the military component is now rising as the 'rumors' of a 'pending biologic weapon/disease attack' are appearing. AND there are some levels of confirmation that the officialdom of the US is already responding to the 'information'. Hmmm.

So hopefully we can get a few minutes away from the phones here to examine the data streams. We do note that we have had a large, and continuing increase in data since about 11pm last night.

Part Five will bring in the first of the new data sets.

Vale, clif and a very tired igor. "

Depending on how the rest of the week goes, this could either turn into "crash week" or the week the "Euro busted" or any number of other economic events.

Destroyer of Ignorance
2,988 Posts
Let's not forget that Bank of America just lost a "deceptive lending practices" lawsuit and is on the hook for $8 Billion for that one.

35,462 Posts
I went back ansd forth with a guy on this 'web bot' thing...

We went through a bunch of the 'predictions'

Some of them... Yea... Looks good.

MANY others were like Nostradomis... or the Horoscope...

Yea... something bad is gonna happen on _____ day on the ocean... it's a big ocean with lots of ships...

Yea... there's gonna be a weather catastrophy on ______ day... it's a big world with alota weather out there....


117 Posts
Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Sorry, yes of course assassinated - damn english as a second language learned in public schools..... "he got made dead" ;-)

Also mistyped on the Luisitania....... duh, May 7th 1915 - should have occured to me when I typed WW2 instead of WW1..... but you get my drift.
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