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Watchin tha world go by
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8,151 Posts
Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
well looks like the mac and mae boost was a hiccup, the retreat was based on real numbers not irrational exuberance. trade deficit still up, unemployment at 6.1%, and in spite of feds best efforts they cant seem to git liquidity into market, it is taking all they can do to cover losses with nothing to spare and options running out. and downturn isnt just us, europe and asia tanked today.
sept and nov are historically worst months fer stock market, and with 3rd qtr losses mounting there wont be much good news ta pick it up.
add to that new bailouts (detroit-Leeman-Mac & mae-new stimulus package in fall, and maybe airlines as well)
not sure the almighty himself could straighten this mess out.

think a three digit deficit may be low.

buckle up

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080909/budget_deficit.html
The Congressional Budget Office released figures Tuesday that indicate the red ink will spill over into next year, when the deficit would reach a record $438 billion -- and could go even higher as the government takes over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080909/26563570.html
US May Be Running Out Of Options To Stop Recession

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080909/pending_home_sales.html
Pending sales of existing homes in US fell 3.2 percent in July as housing struggles continue

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080909/wall_street.html
Wall Street retreats as financials weaken
Dow 11,249.13 -261.61 -2.27%
Nasdaq 2,224.32 -45.44 -2.00%
Chart for Nasdaq
S&P 500 1,234.06 -33.73 -2.66%
Chart for S&P 500
10 Yr Bond(%) 3.6040% -0.0610

Dow 11,250.27 -260.47 -2.26%
Chart for Dow
Nasdaq 2,214.39 -55.37 -2.44%
Chart for Nasdaq
S&P 500 1,226.82 -40.97 -3.23%
Chart for S&P 500
10 Yr Bond(%) 3.5960% -0.0690

FTSE 100 5,415.60 -30.70 -0.56%
DAX 6,233.41 -30.33 -0.48%
Chart for DAX
CAC 40 4,293.34 -46.84 -1.08%
Chart for CAC 40

Nikkei 225 12,400.65 -223.81 -1.77%
Chart for Nikkei 225
Hang Seng 20,491.11 -303.16 -1.46%
Chart for Hang Seng
Straits Times 2,673.21 -23.82 -0.88%
Chart for Straits Times
 

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DIY RPG's
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1,667 Posts
yup my eye was watching all over the market today. to see what was gonna happen. and the short of it is this the market took a crap and found out they have Diarrhea.
the market better take some Imodium® A-D before the dow hits 8,000 in valume
 

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1,231 Posts
Our fall will be much like a plane crash. It will take a long time, and the only real damage is at the bottom.

Consumer spending is down, but not in relation to the severity of our plight. Since consumer spending is 70% or so of GDP, we have some time left. When people realize we aren't experiencing a mild recession, they'll really cut back and then the axe falls.
 

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467 Posts
A few experenced persons in the economy on other sites thought this bounce would last at least three to four weeks.Hummmm.... did not even last one day. What does the goverment expect, you sieze two private corp. then tell the common shareholders "Tough schiess"then put up in the market The new and improved federal Fan and Fred. Come see come buy! Who do they think is going to buy this crap? Fool me onced shame on you,Fool me twiced shame on me.
 

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not a nut
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1,629 Posts
Looks like Lehman Brothers will be next of the list, could be Wamu, they are lining em up to shoot em down. We are sooooo toast.

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Lehman shares tumble 44 percent on report that talks with Korea Development Bank ended

NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. shares plunged to their lowest level in more than a decade Tuesday amid investor concerns that the battered investment bank is running out of options to raise capital.

Investors, anxious about the possibility of a bank failure after the near-collapse of Bear Stearns in March, punished the stock in early afternoon trading. The stock tumbled $6.36, or 45 percent, to $7.79 -- the lowest level Lehman's stock has hit since the financial meltdown of 1998 triggered by the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080909/lehman_brothers.html
 

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Destroyer of Ignorance
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2,988 Posts
Some information to consider ...

The Dow has been on a major decline for the last few years. You wouldn't know it to look at the figures unless you bear in mind the power of inflation. If inflation is running around 16%, and the Dow stays even over the course of a year, it has actually lost 16% of it's real value. Price the Dow in real commodities. Price it against gold, milk, corn, wheat, silver or crude oil. It buys a lot less of those things than it did a year ago.



Now, I have no proof of this but I think it's an interesting concept ...

What if the government wanted to keep up the appearance of a solid stock market? Couldn't they just print enough money to keep it where they want it?
 

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Watchin tha world go by
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8,151 Posts
Discussion Starter #8
ever heard of a credit-default swap (CDS).

now the real bailout game begins. the bonds are covered by in many cases hedge fund contracts. default contracts and must now be paid. the big problem is the percentage of repayment. if they are redeemed at say 50% value the large stockholders will loose big (china would loose 300B). if investors loose that type money what are the chances they will pony up again to salvage a financial org in trouble - such as leeman? and each failing "too big to fail" company has these riding with their investments 62 trillion in our economic house of cards.

would youreinvest with the same ones who just gave you -50% return of your investment? i sure as hell wouldnt.

this means only one thing, the hedge funds put up what they can and the taxpayer puts up the rest. and from what it looks like 50% might not be enough --- and that is just this round of the eventual 6 trillion in liabilities they hold. because if the investments are not covered--- capital flow to keep our country running --- stops.

buckle up --- better yet abandon ship

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily...008/db2008099_141141.htm?campaign_id=rss_null
The bailout triggers settlement of $1.4 trillion in unregulated credit-default swaps. Do the hedge funds have the money?
But Uncle Sam's intervention also triggered a default event, according to the International Swaps & Derivatives Assn., and now roughly $1.4 trillion in outstanding credit-default swaps, a type of derivative contract, must be settled.

You remember the credit-default swap (CDS). It began life as an "insurance policy" that big players such as hedge funds took out to hedge investment risks. Over time, however, the CDS became a tool that big funds, financial institutions, and others used as a way to place bets on whether a company would go bankrupt. They're contracts negotiated between two parties and—unlike insurance policies—there's no regulator verifying that companies can actually make good on the $62 trillion of swaps outstanding.
 
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