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Hi all,

Way back, I posted as analysis by a Kossack (Daily Kos person, that is) named Stranded Wind, in which he detailed why and how the world food supply would shrink in 2009. Here's an exceprt and a link to his original piece:

The Famine Of 2009 (updated 4x)
by Stranded Wind
Thu Nov 27, 2008 at 08:18:15 AM PST
Last week I received a very concerned call from South Dakota farmer and agronomist Bryan Lutter. "Neal, we're out of propane!" I figured this was personal distress – he and his family farm over three square miles of land and I know this has been a tough year for many people. He promptly corrected my misconception when I tried to console him. "No, everybody is out, all three grain elevators, we can't get fuel for the bins, and we're coming in real wet this year."

There are equally dramatic issues due to the bankruptcy of Verasun and the apparent insolvency of the nation's largest private crop insurance program. Payments that would have come in June or July of a normal year are still not dispersed at the end of November and this has grim implications for next year's crop.

I started digging into the details and unless I'm badly mistaken people are going to be starving in 2009 over causes and conditions being set down right now. It's a complex, interlocking issue, and I hope I've done a good job explaining it below the fold ...


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/27/11143/168/114/667032

Here's a newer piece, along the same lines and IMO very well researched and documented--excerpt and a link:

The perennially troubled Horn of Africa is a model for what other currently unstressed areas of the world will look like after a grain production crash. I found that link when I was searching for information about herd prices plunging. The food aid folks in Africa know when a famine is coming a year or more ahead of time – they can tell just by looking at livestock prices. When flocks are getting sold for a pittance hard times are just over the horizon.

Now the United States isn't the Horn, but I pay real close attention when the nation's largest chicken producer files for bankruptcy due to volatile feed prices. Similar dynamics are affecting hog production and I know this one first hand – my brother manages a farm for one of the nation's largest hog raising operations and they cut production by a third a few months ago. We're cutting our flocks ... it's only translated to higher prices at the grocery store thus far but I think the principle that flock liquidation equals pending trouble is a sound one.

Our food pantries are under the gun. Unlike the largely agrigarian societies where the flock sale presages the hunger of the next year we're structurally much more complex, but this seems another warning sign, at least to me.

I don't think there is any action we can take today to avert what is going to happen in the developing world. No, not even if every last man, woman, and child got notice from on high that we needed to change and change now. There are simply too many of us here for the resources this planet has to offer and Mother Nature is about to start correcting that imbalance.


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/24/114824/92

If you are interested in this topic, please take the time to read through all of Stranded Wind's work. I'm biased in favor of his analyses, but I really do think he's done a better job on this topic than any other researcher/analyst on the interwebs, at least that I've seen. Tom.
 

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The Famine Of 2009

...

Our food pantries are under the gun. Unlike the largely agrigarian societies where the flock sale presages the hunger of the next year we're structurally much more complex, but this seems another warning sign, at least to me.

I don't think there is any action we can take today to avert what is going to happen in the developing world. No, not even if every last man, woman, and child got notice from on high that we needed to change and change now. There are simply too many of us here for the resources this planet has to offer and Mother Nature is about to start correcting that imbalance.
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jul/11/na-usda-urged-to-end-paying-farmers-not-to-grow-cr/

I'd take the last three paragraphs (starting with "Whatever he decides...") with a grain of salt though. I haven't known an environmentalist yet who wasn't prone to exaggeration.
 

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I don't know if I'd wade through all of my writing, but on this agriculture and energy stuff I can pretty much hold my own :)

The famine article on Thanksgiving had a followup

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/27/11143/168/114/667032

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/28/12514/062/886/667285

While the Christmas Eve grim pronouncement had a preceding solution oriented post.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/24/114824/92/462/676878

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/22/19510/835/1/676298
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Hey, I'm out here in right-blogosphere promoting your work and I don't even get a "thank you"? (Just kidding!)

Seriously, thanks for your pieces on Kos. They will be much appreciated by people on the survivalist forum, I think.

Tom.
 
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