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I know some of you are prior military. Myself included. For those with enough training, it is easy to see that Ukraine will never win this militarily. This may be the only solution which prevents massive bloodshed. A free and independent Ukraine is just not in the cards. If they had a better defense, then maybe, but they have not been able to stop the convoy headed for Kiev, and have not made a significant impact on the Russian tanks headed their way. The conclusion is basically already written. Negotiation is the only way out of this.
Tell that to the Taliban...
 

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So you think Ukraine will hold out for 20 years. Also, the Taliban "won" only because the US pulled out. I don't believe Russia has any such plans.
Russia got their butts kicked too and pulled out of Afghanistan...

I think if the west will send them more jets and especially attack drones along with more stingers and javelins - I hear Sweden is sending 5,000 anti-tank missiles. IF they get there, and in time. But even if not, smuggled in and dispersed to partisans there is no way Russia can control the highways or move vehicles. If Ukraine's fighting forces go underground it will be very hard for Russia to stop attacks short of mass genocide.

Something else to remember - are the russian troops really there by choice? Not by what I'm seeing on TV. It seems some don't even know why they are there or exactly where they are. That might explain their reluctance to engage civilians on the ground, vs using indiscriminate missiles and bombs. I doubt their heart is really in the fight for most. My guess is their main interest is to not needlessly die for Putin at the hands of a 15 year old hiding behind a tree with a liberated RPG.

This isn't Ukraine's first rodeo. They held the German army at bay, at the cost of millions of lives. Kyiv was under siege and surrendered something like 600,000 troops. The entire country was more or less destroyed. And as I understand it Russia more or less sold them out.

Cities are not good places for armor. If the Russians want Kyiv they are going to have to level it. Will the world allow that? Or once again stand idly by and let another genocide occur? Allepo all over again. Sniper fire will rain down on the troops from rubbled buildings. Remember Sarajevo? The Russians will have to take the cities building by building and drive the residents out.

Massive loss of life? Yes. If this continues deaths could be in the MILLIONS - if the Ukrainians stay in the fight. Will the world allow ONE MAN to murder millions? Again? This is ALL about ONE MAN. One deranged despotic tyrant has caused all this. Not that the Ukrainian govt is a bunch of choirboys either.

I don't pretend to be an expert on any of this, but I have learned a few things in my 65 years.
 

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There are rumors of russian troops surrendering and sabatoging their own equipment. Who knows if true, but if so would be a good sign. But Putin can just send another 250,000 troops. If Ukraine can field the weapons and arm the population I think they have a good chance, though millions will die. Again I say, ONE BULLET in the right spot can stop all this. The Russian people must remove Putin immediately, before this gets any worse.

I don't know how bad the Ukraine govt is. There does seem to be a neo-nazi element, it sounds like a represive regime full of corruption where rights are not respected. One reason I never paid it much attention. Now all of a sudden they seem to be getting progressive. Regardless, Russia is way overboard murdering civilians and attacking.
 

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Yuriy, great to see your post. :) Do you have a fall back location in case you need to evacuate your home? Do you have a vehicle? (You said the other day you had walked to town.) Have you made a cache to hide some emergency supplies in case of confiscation by, whoever? Are supplies getting through? No need to answer, get to work! Stay safe.
 

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@ Yuriy, thanks for the update, and for documenting your experience. I know this "is" your "bug out location," but do you and your family have another fall back place or escape plans if your town gets overrun? Have you talked with your neighbors regarding any defense plans (not asking specifics - opsec) but are you guys building barriers and ways to move between buildings?

Is looting becoming a big problem? I can understand getting food and supplies from abandoned or damaged buildings to support the fight, but attacking occupied homes for valuables doesn't sound very patriotic, and would earn a bullet here.

I always think of my home as an inpregnable fortress (we are on a steep ridge overlooking our town) but it's only designed to keep the average criminal or a couple of looters from breaking in. A mortar round and we're done. And a tank would roll right through our concrete walls. In that case all we could do is run! Your situation is helping me revise some of our planning.

Stay well.
 

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As someone else in this thread has apparently just realized, it doesn't matter if you live in a fort if it happens to end up being on a battlefield or where the generals decide to dig their trenches. As for a bunker on the Maginot line, that works until it ends up surrounded in enemy territory. War sucks for civilians as well as soldiers, and time and chance happen to all men. Any illusion of perfect security is just that, an illusion. All anyone can do in life is play the odds and hope lady luck is with them.
LOL - I didn't "just" realize that we have vulnerabilities. But for sure I've been complacent the past few years and it's time to harden the target a bit more as times are changing. I don't exactly expect tanks to roll down our street anytime soon, but I'm pretty sure Yuriy wasn't expecting to hear cannon fire in the distance either. :(
 

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Hi Yuriy, LOL - glad to see you are surviving with a sense of humor, though it must be hard without expresso. ;)

Please let us know how the rest of your world is doing. Is your mom still in Keiv? Is food holding out? I just saw Biden approved 800 million in aid, hope it arrives in time.

Stay safe, and if you can't stay safe take a bunch with ya!
 

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Yuriy, I hope our prayers have helped at least a little. If I thought there would be a chance our respective postal systems could get a package to you, I would send coffee. Apparently there is still lagging problems with our postal offices. My late wife's sister has yet to receive packages I sent over 40 days ago.
Yeah you aren't alone with the post office collapse. My wife's CCW permit was lost, we had to to a charge back on the shipping as the PO was worthless and stop the certified check. Just mailed mine yesterday with tracking and it's looking like it's already not where it's supposed to be. Someone needs to send that Dejoy fellow to the Russian front...

And if there was a way to get it there I'd send more than coffee.
 

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Thats how I fell about my Tea. I figure if I don't drink tea that in 24 hours I'll be in a coma. In 48 hours I'll be dead. Lol! I'm kidding. Sort of. I do like tea and have all my life. We didn't grow up drinking cokes. A soft drink was a treat we got on rare occasions. But tea was there every day. Tea or water.

Thanks for the update Yuriy. It was good to hear from you. I am following your thread. I hope soon your mess is over. Putin is pretty much universally hated here for what he has done. The world is not ready for another Hitler grabbing land from other people. Hitlers "Lebensraum".
Well said. Tea drinker here too.

When I was 14 my Dad and I hiked the 250 mile John Muir trail. He was a heavy coffee drinker, and near the end of the trail, a day or so before we summited the 14,000'+ Mt. Whitney (highest mtn in the US outside Alaska) he ran out of his "go juice." He was sooo sick climbing up the mountain and down the other side to the trailhead. Between caffine withdrawal and the altitude he had a splitting headache and was vomiting about every 1/4 mile. He was asking anyone we passed if they had coffee, but they were all day or overnight hikers.

When we reached the campground at Whitney Portal he was going from camp to camp begging for coffee like a meth addict! He drank like 5 cups - and "then" went to SLEEP laying on top of his sleeping bag for like 6 hours! :D :D

Cured me of ever drinking coffee! LOL (I know tea has a little, but not like coffee or soda.)

As for Putin, rabid dogs need to die.
 

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Thanks for updating us Yuriy. Is your mom ok in Kyiv? It's a little surreal for us, for me anyway, to see all the destruction on TV and then to read your reports. It really shows how a SHTF situation can be somewhat localized, even in a war. It sounds like you have chosen a good location for a "bug out." I sincerely hope the war doesn't come to your town.

I don't know if it matters, but myself and several of my neighbors (we live on a hilltop over looking our town) have yellow and blue lights shining at night. It's about all most of us can do to offer solidarity.
 

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Yuriy thanks for the update. I appreciate reading your first had reports.

I'm not sure what you can post without compromising security, but are people worried about Russia using nukes on you?

I find it interesting the speed of cleanup. Is the feeling that the invaders won't come thru Belarus again? I am gathering the random attacks on the western part of your country are not a large threat? Or are they targeted at specific sites and if you aren't nearby it's pretty safe.

Stay well.
 

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Well I may be in the unpopular minority these days, but I do believe we must stand up to despots and tyrants (foreign or domestic) and that if WE don't enforce the "rules" of civilized society on barbarians (includes the Taliban, arab muslims and russian/soviets) then we have failed humanity.

Someone has to stop bullies and psychopaths, the abuse of women, or people who's lifestyle path doesn't meet the approval of various groups also engaging in their own belief systems. By that I mean not throwing gays off roofs, not stripping womens rights, not allowing genocide or war crimes.

We have had 40 years, since Regan's "Star Wars" project to mitigate the ability of despotic nuclear regimes to terrorise the planet. But our ignorant, short sighted, corrupt criminals in elected office have failed us. Now sadly our once great nation is falling into civil war and economic ruin, and extremists of various ilks rule the day.

I fear we are heading into terrible times, a new "dark age" from which the world is unlikely to recover. From climate change, to numerous despots threatening nuclear war over any minor disagreement.

It is up to us to fix this. To stop the internal and international hate that keeps humanity from progress. We'd rather kill each other than pay for a covid vaccine (that worked) nevermind curing cancer and global warming. No, we have to spend our time and resources storing food, digging bunkers, or whatever because the leaders of the world are more interested in war than progress.
 

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I was hoping it was

Too much, and for nothing. Now we are doing it again with Ukraine not even a year after that 20yr disaster. I remember the overwhelming support from both the Left and Right when the GWOT began. I was against it then and against it now. Total war or no war. Trump and Biden's groveling to the Taliban at the end was an absolute embarrassment.

Then sanction and fight them directly. Indirect fighting through proxy doesn't work and we have dozens of failed examples since WW2 to prove it. I hate to break it to you but Ukraine is not our friend, no matter how much you and Joe and Hunter Biden and their investment partners want it be.

The racist-based propaganda goes both ways. I don't consider Europeans and especially Eastern European cultures our equals or equivalents. This is Globalism and Corporatism. If you want to look at this through the Liberal/conservative, Left/Right lens....let's do that. Which side of politicians are gloves-off supporting Bills to shower Ukraine with money and equipment and which one(s) have stood up to it?

And I appreciate the discussion. We might disagree but it is a conversation worth having.
Seebee, I agree with you in general. But for us to directly fight Russia as we probaby should will likely be armegeddon. Tens of thousands are already dead or hurt due to one ****bag despot. And nobody in the whole world seems able to put a bullet in the scumbags head. This is the insanity the world has driven itself to.

I don't have answers, but someone better figure it out pdq.
 

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Hey, thanks for the update. It is so surreal to me even having been in several war zones, to see things more or less normal, even though I've seen similar before. Full on battle going on and you drive 40 kilometers and could enjoy a nice restaurant meal.

One thing I find interesting from the early days of Putin's war, is how nobody appears armed in the video you linked (though I didn't watch the last part). I had the impression they were handing out AK's to everyone from 8 to 80 for a massive mobilization of the population. But it appears that was a media play. I guess life goes on, until something forces change, and I guess on the front lines it's different. But to me it looks like a bit of a disconnect between the civilian population and the warfighters. Similar to here where we send our boys to fight and die, but here at home you'd never know we were at war for 20 years.

I sometimes wonder if you guys added a million or two fighters if you couldn't just drive the russians out. But I know so little about the whole thing not being there. Just trying to understand it all.

Let's hope the worst is behind you. Stay safe.
 
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