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Signs of something bigger?

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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
President Trump is supposed to pull the US out of a nuclear treaty limiting land based nuclear cruise missiles.

I am sure both parties will come to the table and make a new treaty, or maybe not. There is speculation China wants some type of conflict in the South China sea. I speculate this conflict is for a land grab over various islands and the oil under those islands.

It has been also speculated Putin has been ignoring the land based nuclear treaty.

The question is, is Russia prepping for an Asian conflict? Not with China, but to back China up?

China exerts control over the South China sea, and may fire upon US ships.

NATO responds by attacking China, but Russia has a line of land based nukes.

NATO knows about the land based nukes and sits on its hands - much like what happened when Germany and Russia invaded Poland in 1939.

China exerts ownership of various segments of the South China sea, and numerous countries sign peace treaty with China.

Maybe there is a much bigger picture as to why Trump is pulling troops out of the middle east?
 

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China AND Russia are ALL about Expansion and these "Treaty`s" are now in the way!. And as they develop new Missiles and Detection Systems they are Proud,Spunky and think they will have America in the corner. I Really don`t think that`s going to work with this Administration!. Trump and Bolton are Not Fools!.
 

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I'm not really worried about it but I do find it interesting. My dad was sergeant with a tactical nuclear missile battery in germany, deploying Pershing missiles, the kind that where abolished by this treaty. He is looking for a job right now and I joked that he should re-up, maybe they will need someone to take some pershings out of mothballs for this.
 

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I'm not really worried about it but I do find it interesting. My dad was sergeant with a tactical nuclear missile battery in germany, deploying Pershing missiles, the kind that where abolished by this treaty. He is looking for a job right now and I joked that he should re-up, maybe they will need someone to take some pershings out of mothballs for this.
Pershings would work well along with the Jupiters!!!!. Proven Missile systems!. Sorry for the spelling!.
 

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This is all about having the economic whip hand and using it. The Russians and Chinese see a chance to develop some economic hegemony, and they see Trump's "problems" as something to exploit. Threatening to deploy nukes is about as serious as you can get, and although economies are way to interdependent to tolerate mushroom clouds, a little posturing sets some bounds and gives Trump some credibility. Somewhere deep down in the pit of Putin's stomach, he still thinks there's a chance that Trump's crazy enough to follow through with his implied threats.
We all know that the next time Trump and Putin meet or talk, Trump will be cracking jokes and bragging about the celebrities he's bagged. He likes keeping people shook up.
 

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Cold War came back in great style, I hope this time my country is on the right side of the Iron Curtain. But nukes close to our border ain't something new, for some time Russia expand their armed forces, radar stations and ballistic systems in Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus.
 

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If the US and NATO put medium range nuclear missiles in Europe, they'll be capable of hitting Moscow 15 minutes after launch. Should their detection systems pick up indications of a missile being fired, the Russians will have almost no time to determine if it's real or a false alarm before they have to retaliate.

Let's hope nobody is stupid enough to do that.
 

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President Trump is supposed to pull the US out of a nuclear treaty limiting land based nuclear cruise missiles.

I am sure both parties will come to the table and make a new treaty, or maybe not. There is speculation China wants some type of conflict in the South China sea. I speculate this conflict is for a land grab over various islands and the oil under those islands.

It has been also speculated Putin has been ignoring the land based nuclear treaty.

The question is, is Russia prepping for an Asian conflict? Not with China, but to back China up?

China exerts control over the South China sea, and may fire upon US ships.

NATO responds by attacking China, but Russia has a line of land based nukes.

NATO knows about the land based nukes and sits on its hands - much like what happened when Germany and Russia invaded Poland in 1939.

China exerts ownership of various segments of the South China sea, and numerous countries sign peace treaty with China.

Maybe there is a much bigger picture as to why Trump is pulling troops out of the middle east?
So what you are really saying is China has a chance to nuke the Democratic West Coast???

Honey, bring the popcorn!!! ....jk..... maybe....

But in all seriousness something has been brewing for some time over decades. Our journalism in the USA tells us everything we need to know <sarcasm>...

Yup, somethings up...
 

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If the US and NATO put medium range nuclear missiles in Europe, they'll be capable of hitting Moscow 15 minutes after launch. Should their detection systems pick up indications of a missile being fired, the Russians will have almost no time to determine if it's real or a false alarm before they have to retaliate.

Let's hope nobody is stupid enough to do that.
But lets not forget those nuclear subs off the eastern and western US seaboard...by the time they get a whiff of what happens, their SOP is to go M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction).
 

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But lets not forget those nuclear subs off the eastern and western US seaboard...by the time they get a whiff of what happens, their SOP is to go M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction).
As far as I know, Russian subs are not issued "fail-deadly" orders. However, there have been rumors of the Russian's "Dead Hand" / Perimeter system which is supposed to be a sort of semi-automatic launch order issuance system. Obviously, we don't know exactly how it works and only bits of information has dribbled out about it. Most of the doomsday sites will tell you the system will fire if it picks up nuclear detonations within Russia. But every credible explanation I have heard about it is that it is semi-automatic meaning there is still human intervention required to order a launch. It's not terribly different from the ERCS system we used to employ where we could launch a specially-equipped ICBM that would transmit launch orders to silos.

As far as the treaty goes, IMHO, this is not a sign of anything bigger for either side. I think we saw this coming a decade or more ago as Putin blustered about US plans to put tracking radars, aimed at IRAN, in Europe. These were then followed by Aegis-Ashore batteries which are again, designed to counter incoming ballistic missiles from the Middle East. The interceptors at these batteries are not boost-phase interceptors, meaning they can't catch outgoing ICBMs from Russia so they don't affect in any way, Russia's nuclear deterrent. What this did was give Putin a convenient talking point he could use to sell the Duma and the Russian people on ever-increasing military spending and justify transitioning Russia from a regional military power, back to a global military power.

The US withdrawal is simply a response to Russian non-compliance which has gone on for probably a decade now. I doubt we'll see a return to true IRBMs because of how effective interceptors are becoming. What we will probably see as 21st-century INFs are cruise missiles. In the near-term, I think the US will probably just start re-arming our attack submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles... which by the way, the Russians never stopped carrying on their subs.

Provided deployed warhead numbers and yields don't start increasing again, I don't think it will be a march toward war. If Russia were to back out of the portions of the START/NEW START agreements that limit deployed warheads and start increasing their deployed warhead counts, that would be very concerning. While they did pull out of the portion of START/NEW START that forbade MIRVs on ICBMs, Russia's re-deployment of MIRVed ICBMs and the development of their "super-ICBM" didn't change the number of warheads they employ... it just put them on fewer ICBMs.
 

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Well if there is proof that the Russians are not honoring the treaty then it's past time to either pull out of the treaty and/or renegotiate a new one. If any one was going to use a nuke it would probably be either Pakistan or India and probably on their own soil to halt the advance of enemy ground troops.
 
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