[PlanB]

I think we can all agree that the best urban survival plan is to get out AHEAD of time.

To that end, it would be great if we all brainstormed a list of "tripwires" - ie, events that could lead to chaos or danger in the city, or in America.

For starters:

-A nuclear attack anywhere in the world
-A blackout
-Major natural disaster that leads to an extended disruption of utilities.
-Assassination of Obama
-A biological attack in America
-Teamster strike, or anything else that leads to a temporary food shortage
-If the unemployment or poverty levels reach a certain high level, leading to increased crime
-Conflict escalation with Iran and North Korea, once they have nuclear capabilities

I'll keep thinking of these. in the meantime, please contribute your own early warnings of disasters, violence, looting, rioting, or danger in cities that would necessitate an early evacuation...

 

[Brew]

The day your internet and cell phones stop working yet the cable TV feed keeps going is the day. The rest are temporary local and isolated things. You will be cut off from communication in the middle of the night before it really starts, or it will just start with a cough or sniffle...... those are the two.

 

[firehiker]

I think we need to focus less on the Secret Service not being able to fulfill their job requirements and protect the President...NOTHING is going to happen to "O", it's a ridiculous notion...that being said:
1) economic collapse and a run on the banks (like everyone here and nationwide with firearms) causing panic and hysteria
2) natural disasters leading to area-wide power failures, causing panic and hysteria
3)retaliation to a hate-crime or a "perceived hate crime" leading to riot
Aside from the "O" scenario, I agree with your trips...although, looking at the question differently, though I don't believe it would happen, if it DID, that certainly would be a tripwire, so yeah, OK...

 

[CPT Shortcut]

A war or complete collapse south of the boarder.

Think there are a lot of illegals now? Wait till they come over to escape the war/depression.

 

[Isolater]

If H591 (the really fatal form of the bird flu)
learns to go from person to person. That would raise international hell.

 

[blacktree]

If you live in an area that you feel could become dangerous why would you wait any longer to leave? Get out now. Waiting for a serious "trip wire" will result in a traffic jam. It may also result in a needless "kill or be killed" situation. Waiting for anything listed in the original post is waiting too long.

 

[Ammo]

Good questions/post.
It would seem to me, that most of those would have to be evaluated, based on were we, as individual's, are right now.

A couple of them might sent me heading for Bama, but others it would prove safer for me to hunker down were we are now.

 

[PlanB]

A few more tripwires:

The government sealing the borders, banning the press, or refusing to let citizens move money offshore.

As for the question, "why not leave now," freedom is more important to me than security. I won't leave out of fear - only out of necessity.

 

[FLsurvivalist]

All this talk about leaving.......where would you go? I have pondered this question many times to myself. "Where would I take my family when the SHTF?" Or would I need to actually go anywhere at all? Do I just hunker down at the house? Do I head to the woods? Do I leave the country? Where would you go? I will start a new thread asking this as not to hijack this thread.

 

[d3athp3nguin]

Edit: The only feasable BOL I can think of for my family is our house at the river, in Northern VA. Moving from an urban to a rural area would be good to avoid urban unrest or the fallout from an urban crisis, but being out in the country has its own disadvantages. It would take some serious weather or instability to convince me that bugging out is a good idea.

While I would certainly be on the lookout for events that would encourage destabilization of infrastructure or eat at social stability, oftentimes social "trigger events" are the quick, abrupt turning of a release valve resulting from a slow buildup in social tension or instability in infrastructure. It's that slow buildup you have to watch out for.

The recent riots in France are an example: two young thugs getting electrocuted in a power station while running from the cops triggered weeks of riots by some of the disgruntled ethnic groups there; those ethnic groups were already pissed and waiting for an excuse to go crazy.

Even an event such as a collapse in Mexico's government would take weeks to affect you, and you likely wouldn't notice anything different unless you lived on a border state. I'd be paying close attention to Texas in that situation.

As for weather- very rarely does a really bad weather event happen that is not observed and announced in advance. I certainly wouldn't want to be caught prepping at the last minute for that though.