Thank's, that is SUCH a relief!!!

I was worried about NOTHING.

Oh, wait, I forgot, i've actually read a history book or 40.

 

Awesome. Would be great to hear some specific examples of rapid societal collapse that you think are relevant to the modern United States.

 

hmm... well, this is one of those agree to disagree thing's... so... U just go on being U, and I'll just go on being me... hows that?

 

That's a non-answer. At least use some facts to shoot me down.

 

We could find ourselves spiraling into the abyss at almost a moment's notice, and from numerous threats. A new plague could ( and at some point,surely will) materialize and circle the globe in days, our electrical grid is hanging on by it's fingernails, numerous critical threats are on the agriculteral horizon, and last but not least, our currency, the once mighty and indomitable U.S. Dollar, has been mortally wounded, and is living on borrowed time.
30 days ? Well, it's better than nothing, but I have a feeling that even a couple years ain't gonna be enough.

 

We could find ourselves spiraling into the abyss at almost a moment's notice, and from numerous threats. A new plague could ( and at some point,surely will) materialize and circle the globe in days, our electrical grid is hanging on by it's fingernails, numerous critical threats are on the agriculteral horizon, and last but not least, our currency, the once mighty and indominatable U.S. Dollar, has been mortally wounded, and is living on borrowed time.
30 days ? Well, better than nothing, but I have a feeling that a couple years ain't gonna be enough.

And I guess in theory it could flood in the Atacama Desert. But do you think that's likely?

 

I prep for EMP's, solar flares and the Great Tribulation, all of which can happen at anytime.

I do not worry about economic collapse or pandemics, but a future world war could be devastating even for our continent.

 

I don't even know what a Great Tribulation is.

 

I'm gonna have to go with Niall Fergusons' hypothesis... since he's pretty much the worlds leading financial and economic historian....

(a link for the next video of the 6 part series pops up)

 

I'm gonna have to go with Niall Fergusons' hypothesis... since he's pretty much the worlds leading financial and economic historian....

Niall Ferguson: PART 1 - Empires on the Edge of Chaos: Introduction- YouTube


(a link for the next video of the 6 part series pops up)

I don't outsource my thinking to a guy on Youtube.

 

Theres always a first time. Now with that being said. Civil war saw very hungry people, great depression saw very hungry people, each war items were rationed, Irish famine....................................

Ya, 30 days, past what I have.

Baaaaaaaa, Baaaaaaaa

 

In all of those events, almost ALL of the people lived in rural areas and were partially or largely self-reliant for food and water. And many still went hungry. Since then, we a huge number of people have taken up residence in cities. In the next socio-economic disaster, there WILL be hunger, and the government WILL try to take from those who have supplies and the means of production, just to keep the loyalty of the starving masses.

And I WILL be saying "No," first with words, and, if need be, with munitions.

 

Occam,

Two things:

1. I, for one, agree with you. I believe in playing the percentages, and even looking at history it's pretty clear that a true SHTF situation is extremely unlikely. There's a reason why a vast majority of people don't prep: it's because, like you say, the odds are fairly remote that a true "SHTF" will happen anytime soon. That doesn't mean it CAN'T happen, but just because something is possible doesn't mean it's probable, and therein lies the key.

2. You do realize, though, that posting on a prepper's message board that the S will never HTF is futile. Kinda like a Cowboy fan like me posting on a Redskins forum that we're the superior team. Most here will probably disagree with you, and some vehemently so. But I'm guessing you know and expect that.

 

I think someone trying to come on a survivalist and prepper message board to try and convince us we don't need to prep is wasting their time and my time.

Oh yea and I can think of about 15 trillion reasons why to prep right now...........

 

I think someone trying to come on a survivalist and prepper message board to try and convince us we don't need to prep is wasting their time and my time.

I am a prepper. But, we disrespect any matter about which we care if we are unwilling to apply our intelligence in evaluating it. Prepping is an actuarial exercise, not a religious experience. It is okay to question things. The best survivalists do.

 

Occam - I believe you hit it on the head.

Yep, I can see a major loss of our electrical grid, but I don't seeing it down for more than a couple of weeks. Granted, that will cause significant issues - just look at what went on recently when we had the derecho come through. But I'm with you that I don't think there will be a major societal upheaval that causes me to have more than 30-days of supplies/self sufficiency.

99.9% of people out there don't have the ability to be self sufficient for a week, let alone 30-days. It's a risk management decision that we all make. And we all prepare for what we individually believe will happen and for what we can afford.

 

One thing that I contend is a major point to consider is that "self sufficiency" means vastly different things to different people. For me personally, 30 days of self sufficiency can mean 60 MREs some toothpaste and a bunch of water. I'm a relatively young fit military vet with no medical issues.

But I am also a husband and a father of a small child, which greatly and irrevocably changes things. As a small example if the power was out in triple digit heat, I would HAVE to have a way to keep my son cool enough for it not to be a danger to his health (hooray for solar powered fans!). Other examples might include the fact that Diabetics have regular medical needs,
the elderly have special concerns, etc.

So even prepping for 30 days of no (or sporadic) power supply can be a daunting and massive undertaking for many people. And it can possibly appear to be excessive and unnecessary to an outside observer. But, truth be told, there is peace of mind in knowing that you will have answers and provisions when your family turns to you in need of comfort in a frightening time.

 

My favorite book when I was a small girl was "Little Mouse on the Prairie" by Stephen Cosgrove. Read it. It makes sense, even to a child.

You never know what the future holds.

 

How fast did somalia collapse ?
Thats an honest question since I dont know , but as theyre a pirate infested , internal fighting everybody starving with corpses laying in the street failed nation state , I imagine that would be a good example to look at .
I also wander how quickly the world plunged into darkness after the fall of rome , or if it even did step backward , or if things just took longer to develop .
Either way , I agree that its unlikely we will experience an overnight soceital failure , but thats not really what I prep for .
I prep for any given discomfort , from not being able to hold down a decent job , to having to fight my neighbers for crumbling resources .
I dont think its very likely that one of my tires will blow a sidewall while I'm driving , but that doesnt mean I'll get rid of my jack and spare tire .

 

I don't think you can simply pick one of the worst places on the planet and say there is a high probability the same thing could occur in the United States.

 

Just because a major shtf may never happen in our life times is no excuse not to prep for personal shtf that I can personally tell I have experienced more then once in my life and we were quite pleased that we had to the forethought to be prepared for more then a month.

You think those people of our work now that have been trying for decent work or anywork don't wish they had preps?

It is very likely most people at least once if not more will have a need for at least a 5 months to a years supply of food life happens and sometimes it happens in a big nasty way.

Just a few things I've had happen lets see husband got laid off 3 times, at least 3 months between steady work, he went back to school that was over a year, broke his leg, injured his back, had a triple by pass, had a heartattack, 2 families lost their jobs and moved in with us. All of these last more then 30 days and savings and supplies are what allowed us to make it through.

Don't even get me started on other types of emergencies that knowledge, and skills were important.

This is only a few things I've seen happen that lasted more then 30 days.

 

Just to be clear, my post is not about personal financial calamities. It is about society completely and abruptly deconstructing. I'm not trying to minimize the importance of job loss, but it is not what I was addressing.

 

It doesn't matter that you're debating only the end of civilization because just because a person thinks they will only need those supplies for something like that it is very likely that they will need them for things lasting longer then 30 days that they didn't see coming.

 

Sorry, I don't understand what you're trying to say.

 

How many years did they have to stand in line for TP in russia........................

Many, many examples out there.

 

I don't know. How many years did they stand in line for toilet paper in Russia? And the relevance of that is....?

 

Very well spelled-out and logical, occam....when the metaphor holds. However, I suspect that millennia ago the desert you speak of may have been a rain forest, and before that, under the ocean, or covered in ice, or full of volcanoes.

You speak in micro-truths but miss the forest for the trees. I prep under the belief that society, like land masses, undergo massive shifts in super cycles, and the economy of the Western world is shifting, a tipping point which may be a slow degradation, or more likely a degredation punctuated by acute "step-down" events (like Lehman 2008 or the Euro present-day). History teaches great empires eventually collapse; great currencies die on average 40 years after being unhinged to a hard asset like gold.

In the near term I have the ammo, beans, band-aids, and skills to ride out a thirty-day event, possibly longer. I sleep well at night. But I also hear thunder clouds on the horizon and know that this economic desert sits well below sea level...so I add little by little. Like a hobby, I kinda like it while I do it. And I use everything I accumulate anyway, event or not.

From your screen name you should be the first to know that given all possible outcomes humans will most often choose the one which seems the most simple and logical....one the clinging mind can accept as preserving the status-quo...however sometimes, and I would surmise far more often than you'd like to admit....the outcome surprises all.

 

From your screen name you should be the first to know that given all possible outcomes humans will most often choose the one which seems the most simple and logical....one the clinging mind can accept as preserving the status-quo...however sometimes, and I would surmise far more often than you'd like to admit....the outcome surprises all.

Humans are not logical - we are emotional creatures. We don't think about issues, we react emotionally to them. We rarely do the logical thing after carefully considering objective facts - instead we generally select what seems to be the "easy" and knee jerk response to any issue, and that response is often something we were coached to select by those that want that particular response because it gives them kind of short term advantage or profit but doesn't solve the problem (indeed, it usually exacerbates the problem).

Sorry, but any planning or theory or policy based on the premise that humans are rational, logical and well intentioned more than 1% of the time is probably doomed to failure because that is not reality.

 

Anybody who is prepping to be self-sufficient for longer than 30 days is in all likelihood wasting their time and money. Why? Read on.

First, some clarity in terminology. When I say "SHTF" I am speaking of rapid societal collapse --the abrupt termination of a central governmental structure and the services it provides like security, infrastructure, and utilities. The collateral damage in the private sector includes the complete disruption of the commercial supply chain and financial system. Essentially, conventional modern life ceases and individuals are left to fend for themselves in providing their basic sustenance.

Every day each of us makes decisions based on the probability of outcomes. It is second nature to all thinking adults. If it's cloudy we may grab the umbrella we bought at Walmart, for example.

But, what if you lived in the Atacama Desert in South America? It is a place that on the average experiences an inch of rain every quarter century. If you lived there, would think it a wise use of your money to spend it on an umbrella?

Let's suppose you did. It does, after all, occasionally rain there, even it's only on the average one millimeter per year. Okay, so you now have an umbrella. Your spouse cocks an eyebrow a little and humors you --and what the hell?-- at least is can be used to provide shade in the fierce sun.

But you look at that umbrella, and there's some deep nagging impulse in you that says it might really rain. There is no evidence in the meteorological history of the Atacama Desert to suggest this is true, but soon you're looking at online rainsuit suppliers. You're on the internet debating the merits of rainsuits with other rain-a-phobes. Before you know it you've spent hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars buying rainsuits, and you're just starting to wonder about life rafts.... Your spouse and neighbors are no longer amused at your eccentricity.

Given the rainfall data for the Atacama Desert, most of us would concede our Atacaman friend is deeply misguided because there is nothing in the history of the Atacama Desert to suggest that he will experience more than a hint of rain over the course of his entire life. He has played the odds, and he will in all likelihood lose, and lose horribly. What he will lose is a lot of money, a lot of peace of mind, and a lot of time he will never recover that could have been spent in more enjoyable ways.

Now, let's look at the United States. Western Europe began its influence here about 500 years ago, and we have been steady at it as an idependent nation for about 236 years. During that time we have experienced many economic calamities, many foreign wars, one civil war, huge social upheaval, devastating natural disasters, the assassination of our political leaders...and yet at no time did the nation ever approach a condition that meets the definition of SHTF. (Unless you're a Native American, in which case we were the S that hit your fan. Sorry about that.) As a general rule, even the worst natural disaster required a person to be self-sufficient for no more than 30 days.

This track record leads one to believe that the probability of the SHTF is extremely low; a tiny fraction of one percent. If you're prepping for a SHTF scenario, you are in effect just like our friend from the Atacama Desert: You're buying rainsuits you'll never use, and people are justifiably giving you the stink eye.

The far, far better analysis is to just buy the umbrella and stop there. If you're really into prepping, then have on hand 30 days' worth of food, water, and fuel. This alone is expensive enough, but once you get it you can at least go on about your life secure in the knowledge that you can deal with a disaster about 99.999% of the time.

It's all about playing the odds. Play them smart.

by your way of thinking. its a waste of money to buy house insurance on a house that is 200 yrs old. it hasnt cought fire and burned down nor has it been blown away from a tornado and its highly unlikely it ever will.or get eaten up by termites, BUT someone would have to be an idiot NOT to have their home insured or have termite protection just incase it ever does happen.

just because it hasnt happend yet doesnt mean it will not happen. our gov has already said on Cspan that our country will collapse no later than 2027 and there is a high probablity it will happen sooner. by the way our country has had 1 economic collapse already in its history. YOU may have heard of it,it was called ,"the great depression". and it can VERY easily happen again and most likely will.

you seem to have the mind set ,"it could never happen to me". since 2000 ,4 countries in the world have had an economic collapse and there are several just on the brink of it ATM. I can think of 6 countries that have had war/revolution with the gov being over turned since 2000 with a few upriasing going on ATM.

In no way is stocking up on food and supplies a waste of money . Its obvious you have no idea what your talking about.actually If you buy your supplies the right way in bulk and only when its on sale you WILL save alot money. you dont just buy $5000 worth of food and set and forget it.once you got 1 yrs worth of supplies to use that year when ever an item goes on sale you buy a years worth of that item and rotate the old stuff out. that way If the SHTF you will be covered for a years worth of food and you got those supplies as cheap as it possably could be at the same time your eating everyday food as cheap as you can possably get it which saves you money.

another thing you dont understand is there are many types of the SHTF and within those types there are many levels.anywhere from YOU loosing your job to and asteriod hitting the earth. and in those many scenarios there are several levels of severity.

Now bare in mind that in everything that ppl do there will always be a few ppl that go way overboard in what ever they are doing.its just the way it is,but for the mass majority of the ppl they seem to keep things fairly balanced.


keep drinking the fluoride its working :thumb:

 

Ya, ******* troll, and a stupid one at that.

Analogy. It was an analogy. Look around everywhere, at the shortages of very common goods, everywhere, at multiple times through-out history. I need to break out the crayons for you and make it simpler?

I say we just drop this thread, no else respond.

 

Ya, f'ing troll, and a stupid one at that.

Analogy. It was an analogy. Look around everywhere, at the shortages of very common goods, everywhere, at multiple times through-out history. I need to break out the crayons for you and make it simpler?

I say we just drop this thread, no else respond.

Okay, I'll quit responding. So far not a single persuasive argument and a lot of personal attacks from people unwilling to take a dispassionate, objective look at the issue. Interesting to see how this group responds to a legitimate issue and not just another chance to bash sheeple.

 

To a certain (albeit limited) extent I agree with you but with some qualifiers.

The depression lasted a lot more than thirty days. My Mother is 88 this year and grew up in a railroad family in Colorado. She often talks about what it was like and especially the hardships. And her Father was working but even still, she had to make daily trips along the rail tracks to find coal that may have spilled from passing coal gondolas becauise they always needed more heat in their house, she talks about eating pretty raunchy potatoes towrads spring after a particularly long winter and even about having "gravy sandwiches" (gravy on a piece of bread) three times a day when things were real hard. She doesn't remember things getting better until just before WW2.

Tough times but still, they had the resources to make it as did many of their friends and extended family.

Now, I am a retired cop and I spent most of my time on the street on the west side of Chicago working the four districts in Area 4 which is the second of the two large 'ghetto' sections in the City. During my time, I arrested welfare generational criminals. That is, folks who had spent the better part of their lives on welfare, who had raised multiple children who went on welfare when they became adults and then arrested their children who had also been raised on welfare and who now, in turn, were receiving welfare benefits of their own.

That didn't happen during the depression because there was no such thing as government handouts let alone an institutional history of being entitled to some form of government assistance.

The 'great depression' started in 1930 and lasted until (+/-) 1941 when WW2 got started in earnest. During that time thousands died but most people were able to make it thanks to being able to fend for themselves, often the help of extended families, but they were able to exist and thrive.

But now we have a population that requires food stamps every month for one in seven in order to eat. That's 45 million Americans that need food stamps. Welfare benefits are being paid to 29,000,000 Americans.

Just consider the result of what would happen to America now if the exact same 'great depression' happened here again only under these entirely different circumstances

There are people in this country, and a lot of them, that have been taught since birth that the governemtn will provide and it is their right to receive those benefits.

And they haven't got a clue about what to do if those benefits are not coming in.

What happens when suddenly, the government can't provide because of hyperinflation, a collapse of the electrical grid due to sabotagge, war or natural disaster or because there is a raging viral disease ravishing the country and the world?

How long would it take the cities to start burning?

You're right, that type of cathestrophe has never occurred here in the US before but don't think for a moment that that same scenario hasn't occurred before.

Read how and what caused the decline and ultimate collapse of the Roman Empire.

Sorry, I am an old guy and besides being a rretired cop I am also a retired soldier and I have traveled all over the world and seen up close how other societies and cultures exist.

I may die before it happens but i ferverently believe it will happen, so I raised my kid to be ready for anything and he preps even harder than i do.

 

If you believe all of that...What's your point then and why are you posting in a Survivalist Forum...a forum intended for preppers of various types?

 

But that one time in 25 years, oh boys!

Now, what's the S? Let's call it "An event yet to be observed". By what we know, this has never happened within "insert name of your country". What about tomorrow?
S is also a broad term. It can vary from "the second coming of deity" to "loose my job" to "sun goes rampage" to "are those birds? No. Nukes".
Are those unlikely? Without entering the conundrums of religion, we can say "totally yes".
Are those impossible? Nope. Just like the first proteins forming in the primordial atmosphere, everything is held together by small chances. Being prepared for the excess may be called sheer paranoia, but paranoia and common sense come together as the world goes insane.
The sum is: Are you capable to sustain the expenses of your nuclear shelter (heck, Switzerland has made them mandatory for every house!), your expensive toys, that house in the mountains and does that make you sleep comfortable at night and live with your relatives a better life? If so, go for it.
Your knowledge and equipment may save you someday, or simply keep your mind occupied and give nice pieces of conversation. "oh, that fallout shelter. I now use it as wine cellar. Very good insulation. ahahah."


Sorry for eventual errors. English is not my first language and it's 2.30 am in my time zone. Happy trails!

 

occam, prep for the length of time you feel you should prep for. We (all of us on this forum) are individuals with our own ideas and beliefs, and our own guesses as to what, when, where, why and how it will all fall apart. So I respect your belief that it is not necessary to stock for more than thirty days. As I expect you to respect mine, and all others here, for what we feel comfortable prepping for.

And I hope you are right that whatever shtf doesn't last for more than 30 days. Actually, I hope it never happens. Just as I hope that if the s does indeed htf and lasts over a month, on day 31 you're not realizing the error in your judgement.

 

Do you think the 15% of the population who are under or unemployed wish they had a year's worth of food and supplies set before they lost their job? That alone is a good reason to prep for more than 30 days, as most people's odds of losing their job are significant enough in and of themselves. While you try to define SHTF pretty narrowly in what seems like an attempt to protect your argument, personal SHTF's happen every single day, and having a good stockpile of stuff can help one weather it. It's not really up to you to define why people prep and limit it to a full societal collapse. If your intent was to argue that a SHTF event is unlikely, just state as much; there was no need for about half the post at that point. You could also have joined any of the other 500 posts saying the same thing as yours.

Plus, this is a very bold statement, and inconsistent with every prepper I know: "What he will lose is a lot of money, a lot of peace of mind, and a lot of time he will never recover that could have been spent in more enjoyable ways."

It seems to me I can eat my preps, shoot my preps, and wipe my butt with my preps, so not sure why I would ever lose a lot of money, because I use my preps every day. Plus, my food storage system actually saves me money by allowing me to only buy stuff on sale, to the tune of an extra $1000 a year in my pocket. Second, having it all on hand definitely enhances my peace of mind, and is incredibly convenient, allowing me more free time with my family because we don't have to run to the store every day. And prepping is fun, and something I do with friends and family; there's not much more enjoyable to me than my monthly prep-group meetings. I'd say a good portion of the population on this board would say much the same. Saying its a waste of time is like saying the Boy Scouts, or Outward Bound is a waste of time

So while 30 days might seem sufficient for you, there are plenty of reasons for others to prep for more than that. You deciding that the rest of us are wasting our time and money seems, to be honest, a little troll-like. Your later posts don't do anything to alter that perception.

 

Do you think the 15% of the population who are under or unemployed wish they had a year's worth of food and supplies set before they lost their job? That alone is a good reason to prep for more than 30 days, as most people's odds of losing their job are significant enough in and of themselves. While you try to define SHTF pretty narrowly in what seems like an attempt to protect your argument, personal SHTF's happen every single day, and having a good stockpile of stuff can help one weather it. It's not really up to you to define why people prep and limit it to a full societal collapse. If your intent was to argue that a SHTF event is unlikely, just state as much; there was no need for about half the post at that point. You could also have joined any of the other 500 posts saying the same thing as yours.

Plus, this is a very bold statement, and inconsistent with every prepper I know: "What he will lose is a lot of money, a lot of peace of mind, and a lot of time he will never recover that could have been spent in more enjoyable ways."

It seems to me I can eat my preps, shoot my preps, and wipe my butt with my preps, so not sure why I would ever lose a lot of money, because I use my preps every day. Plus, my food storage system actually saves me money by allowing me to only buy stuff on sale, to the tune of an extra $1000 a year in my pocket. Second, having it all on hand definitely enhances my peace of mind, and is incredibly convenient, allowing me more free time with my family because we don't have to run to the store every day. And prepping is fun, and something I do with friends and family; there's not much more enjoyable to me than my monthly prep-group meetings. I'd say a good portion of the population on this board would say much the same. Saying its a waste of time is like saying the Boy Scouts, or Outward Bound is a waste of time

So while 30 days might seem sufficient for you, there are plenty of reasons for others to prep for more than that. You deciding that the rest of us are wasting our time and money seems, to be honest, a little troll-like. Your later posts don't do anything to alter that perception.

since I started stocking up food there has been a few times I had to fall back on it and live off of it during economic hard times. I'm am so very glad I had it to fall back on and use the money it saved me,and gave me time to get back on my feet :thumb:

 

I'll take a crack at it, I'm a bit bored and why not.

1. The desert example is not an example relevant to a nation overextended throughout the world, which is deficit spending at an historic rate, which has an extreme number of its population dependent upon entitlements, and which lacks the political leadership to do anything about it. It's like comparing apples and automatic transmissions.

2. Your "conditions" are only one of a ton of scenarios which might occur; under the most extreme collapse conditions, perhaps we are fooling ourselves. And maybe preppers form the basis of a new coalescing form of human organization.

But under all sorts of scenarios, preparing will greatly improve the odds of survival and even thriving. See, for example, Argentina. Sure, Argentina isn't the United States, but the current United States isn't the same country as the previous iterations which didn't collapse.

3. Your scenario ("This track record leads one to believe that the probability of the SHTF is extremely low) reminds me of the old joke about the guy who jumps off the 100th floor of a skyscraper; as he passes the 50th floor someone shouts from a window "How's it going?" and the jumper answers "So far so good!"

You discuss playing the odds, but current conditions include elements which prior incarnations of our nation never had to handle: energy problems, food problems, population problems, entitlement problems, emigration problems. Sure, those problems have existed in the past, but not like this, and it may well be that this combination, this time, produces problems whose solutions prove impossible.

4. There are plenty of scenarios where needing more than 30 days of preps may be important; at the least, the ability to provide for others is only possible if you have enough preps to do so. I have a year+ of preps for four, but am planning on three relatives who do not live with me. A year of preps for four is 30 days of preps for 48 people, and the ability to support others in a shorter scenario may be important socially and familially.

5. I don't buy most religious arguments (look at Robert Heinlein's quotations on God and Religion to understand why), but I still have a sense that society is dependent upon concern and charity toward others. Having enough preps such that sharing is possible allows for that concern and charity. I don't know that this is a direct commentary on your post, but it figures into why some (me, at least) feel that a deep larder is more comfortable than a skimpy one.

6. This isn't a direct challenge to your argument, but the 30-day prep isn't a new idea. Lots of us, me included, have argued repeatedly that most SHTF events are short term in duration, and prepping for as little as a week or two will allow someone to survive most of them.



Anyway, good troll!

 

Slow decline will continue.

SHTF will likely be regionnal events-wildfires, hurricanes, storms, etc.

 

Please go back to your office at DHS or FMMA........