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Discussion Starter #1
Ok, I've been running on PERHAPS 3 hours of sleep a night for the last 4 days here.... so although I can keep it up another couple days:
I'll let someone else tell me if it's brilliant or stupid:


Assuming the US is about as impacted by Kung Flu as Sars:

But CHINA remains on lock down, people die or whatever (not making light of people dying.)....

How long can the factories remain dark (Honda and others have repatriated their executive staff/specialists to their home country. I believe it's safe to assume impacted production If not Outright shut down.) before we feel the impact here? And HOW. (Some of that is fairly obvious, some not.)

I'm going through things I've decided not to buy in the past on amazon, thinking about things like car parts, (I already have 4 oil changes on the shelf, got spare windshield wipers in each vehicle, save old belts as spairs, got good tires.) and trying to see if anything makes sense with my compromise.

(If it'll go bad before I'll use it in normal circumstances I'm not getting it.
If I'm just sticking it into the rotation early...meh.)

I tend to "split the difference" and expect that, and it occurred to me this is a possible middle of the road scinario.

China's close social distances, poor hygiene and medical care hits them, but the 1at world is relatively unscathed.

I believe this is distinct enough (different) to merit it's own thread as I REQUEST we avoid discussions of the flu/medicine/health, and talk logistics.

Mods: if that doesn't happen please combine it with an existing thread.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go count my spare Aimpoint batteries.
 

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Republic of Texas
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While I think you need to sleep, I agree with your thought process. If you're sure you've got enough preps to get through/prevent/treat the infection should it hit your AO, move onto the things that won't be easily replaced.

Don't forget though that things like most shoes, etc are made in China or Taiwan these days.
 

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Republic of Texas
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I am sleeping, but only around 5 hours a night. I normally get 9 ish. I'm splitting my time between disinfecting the house fully (coming off the flu it's needed anyhow), working to get ahead of myself in business so I can take time off if needed and organizing/picking up preps we are needing to restock or buy.
 

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I wouldn’t buy any Chinese products like clothing or any textiles for bedding etc, unless you buy them now.

If it gets bad enough all plastic factories dealing with food will shut down for a long time, packaging for food and consumer goods.

It could happen, but I doubt it will get that bad. Maybe only in big cities.

All goods coming in using the same containers from China to the USA should all be washed.

Personally I wouldn’t be buying from China or any other major impacted country like Thailand.

All their TEU’s are contaminated and god knows microbes can live in containers.
 

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Pretty decent thought process, buying/stocking up now on stuff.

Particularly any "stuff" affected by Chinese manufacturing shutdown. Which honestly IMO, is everything.

In some way shape or form, if not the product itself. Ex, as mentioned above, mayhaps its just the packaging. So manufacturers will have to come up with a work around.
 

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Sounds like a sound thought process to me. As for it impacting here, it makes me wonder what critical elements of our infrastructure are produced elsewhere. I think transformers are produced in India, antibiotics and other meds are offshore. I wonder about basic hospital, supplies such as needles and dressings. We may have good hospitals but with few supplies it can go third world quickly. Filters and parts for municipal water supplies come to mind. If China shuts factories, even for a short time, how much of an impact on daily life here? Methinks this could be a real "rabbit hole".

Just an aside, spark plugs, thanks for the reminder. Real sore point in this household. Dh uses one, doesn't replace it. I bet he is down on nails, screws and bolts. Oil changes, who knows. Yes, important items and have been let slide a bit.

I might be inclined to put newly purchased items out in the sun for a few hours, if and when it shines. Sunlight is a fair disinfectant.
 

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boringly normal
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Through dumb luck I just finished with dentist and optometrist. I got my yearly doctor lecture four months ago. It did get me thinking quickly along the lines of:

vitamins(now enough for two years), toothpaste, and ACT flouride rinse(Got a crown and a root cavity). Got an extra pair of glasses ordered, making 3 pairs - I put it on plastic.

Underwear and socks are made overseas, generally. Shoes? hm. Perhaps time to get spring sneakers early.

and further down the rabbit hole I go.
<Can't wait to read what really obvious thing I've missed>
 

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I am currently working on going through my daily life to make sure I have enough of everything for everyday life not so much survival. I feel like this could be a slow spiral and not a crash and burn if the virus actually blows up and spreads a lot.

For example my online business has enough packaging supplies for 6 months but only enough tape for 2 months. I need to go get more when I do a walmart run tomorrow.

I already picked up a spare printer and more ink. Plus have enough sale items to last a year although my selection would be only half as good as it is now.

I just went through the bathroom for needed things and bought more dog food.

I guess kitchen and clothing is the last few things I need to check.
 

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the merchandise turnaround in most stores for general merchandise is 30-45 days iirc, it differs but it's not as fast as food.

if the flu issue prolongs and deepens significantly from here, i can see it making some items more expensive, but it shouldn't make them unobtainable. price is a rationing device that most supply chains know how to use.

if the flu in china gets so bad that they're shutting down the major industrial centers then you've got a much bigger problem than the chinese supply chain. by that point you've probably got the pandemic sweeping through your neighborhood

that said, it's always better to be prepared than not.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
.

and further down the rabbit hole I go.
<Can't wait to read what really obvious thing I've missed>
we would need Jerry for a complete list.

I'm hoping for more overlooked things.

Example: I withdrew cash in small denominations, and will be mostly paying by card or tipping so I do not get change.

Money is very dirty.
 

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60%+ of all fiber sent to the US(which is polyethylene terephthalate and nylon) is manufactured in China due to the simple fact China subsidizes this industry. The fabric may not be spun there, but it is manufactured there and if you are talking about recycled fibers(almost everything is made in China) which are every single shirt not made of cotton or wool 100%. The other percent comes from Southeast Asia which is also getting hit hard.

The CDC also stated it is a low chance that it can travel in ambient temperatures today, but the travel time from port to port LB harbor, Seattle and Tacoma directly ship from Shanghai and/or Busan(SK) it takes small periods of time 10-21 days.

While the CDC can say what they want, in most cases ambient temperatures are a joke when fibers consist of surface areas that warm-up or cool down depending on different polymer types and structure. Now on top of that when companies and trading companies start importing items that are fiber and food-based items in the same cargo container as mixed load. I'll let you just think on that.
 

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I’m not so worried about buying things from China.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t all that stuff come over on a ship? It must take at least a few days to go from the factory to the ship, the ship must take a few day’s or weeks to get here. Then it has to be picked up, loaded on a truck, brought to the store, etc., etc.

So, if the virus only lives for 5 days?
The dog food on the other hand.. nope I love my dogs to much.
 

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My thought is that this is not like Anthrax and this virus dies outside a host such that a product contaminated with the virus self-sterilizes over a few days at the most.

Previous poster mentioned five days.

Inside a host (human) the incubation period, I have seen reported, is a week to ten days until the symptoms appear. The host is very able to pass the virus on during this incubation period.

All that said, we are told there is very minimal risk, so I wouldn't worry about it. After all, we can trust the government, right guys? Guys? We can trust them, right?
 

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Republic of Texas
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Through dumb luck I just finished with dentist and optometrist. I got my yearly doctor lecture four months ago. It did get me thinking quickly along the lines of:

vitamins(now enough for two years), toothpaste, and ACT flouride rinse(Got a crown and a root cavity). Got an extra pair of glasses ordered, making 3 pairs - I put it on plastic.

Underwear and socks are made overseas, generally. Shoes? hm. Perhaps time to get spring sneakers early.

and further down the rabbit hole I go.
<Can't wait to read what really obvious thing I've missed>
Careful with putting it all on plastic. If things end up okay, you'll still have to pay it all off.
 

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Republic of Texas
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I see no one.mentioning common things like trash bags (which can be used with tape to make ******* PPE should you be forced to) or things like towels and other small linens.

I've actually started picking up cheap washcloths for use in an emergency only. Check the dollar stores. I'm getting 18 thin white ones for $4 each. They're cheaper than paper towels and hold up a bit better. If they end up being one time use, I won't be out a ton of cash and can use what I would have wasted on paper towels elsewhere.

Also, gents, if you have ladies in your home - feminine needs if she hasn't already prepped that herself. Ideally reusable is best but disposable works as well.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I’m not so worried about buying things from China.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t all that stuff come over on a ship? It must take at least a few days to go from the factory to the ship, the ship must take a few day’s or weeks to get here. Then it has to be picked up, loaded on a truck, brought to the store, etc., etc.

So, if the virus only lives for 5 days?
The dog food on the other hand.. nope I love my dogs to much.
I wish people would stop repeating this eronious information.

48 hours alone, up to 2 weeks with a catalyst such as snot. (Common in sick people.)
 

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Discussion Starter #18
I see no one.mentioning common things like trash bags (which can be used with tape to make ******* PPE should you be forced to) or things like towels and other small linens.
I guess I considered it common.
I have a shelf in the garage full of boxes of zip lock bags, and probably 500+ trash bags.


I've actually started picking up cheap washcloths for use in an emergency only. Check the dollar stores. I'm getting 18 thin white ones for $4 each. They're cheaper than paper towels and hold up a bit better. If they end up being one time use, I won't be out a ton of cash and can use what I would have wasted on paper towels elsewhere.
I use them in place of napkins. Gotta the varrying color packs as 2 colors are dedicated to bidet use.

Also, gents, if you have ladies in your home - feminine needs if she hasn't already prepped that herself. Ideally reusable is best but disposable works as well.
I was meaning to ask about this, I live alone, but I bought a couple 36 count packs. Pads and tampons both.
What's a good average (I am aware it varries person to person) yearly useage?
Source to reuseable? I know next to nothing about this topic.
(You pull the string to make the doll talk.... Right?)&#55357;&#56834;
 

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Republic of Texas
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I was meaning to ask about this, I live alone, but I bought a couple 36 count packs. Pads and tampons both.
What's a good average (I am aware it varries person to person) yearly useage?
Source to reuseable? I know next to nothing about this topic.
(You pull the string to make the doll talk.... Right?)��
Depends on the woman really. I go through 1 pack of disposable regular every 2-3 months. One of my girls is a pack of super a month because she has PCOS.

Really if you're just looking for barter or charity stock, stick with regular old.pads. Any woman can use them even if she has to use more than average. For a year, I'd say 12-15 small packs or 7-8 larger packs would more than be enough for the average woman. Generic is fine for an emergency, brand name if you're opting for comfort for them lol.

I'd stay away from tampons for SHTF use for the most part. Not all.women can comfortably wear them and the risk of TSS during what could be unhygienic situations isn't worth it imho.

Reusable source is Etsy or Amazon. Cups are great but not every woman can wear them. They are a much better option to a tampon though since they carry less risk and have less waste. Only an option though if it can be boiled to sterilize though.

Reusable Pads are expensive but worth the cost but not every one likes it. I see it as no different than a cloth diaper for an infant. Reusable pads can get really expensive really quickly - I have around $300 invested in ours and we still don't have a full stock. They run $8-20 each depending on different factors.

On top of that, they do require proper cleaning which means a bucket, water and borax/baking soda at the very least.

Personally, I stock both disposable and reusable. There are 3 of us here, 2 use reusable, one doesnt. I dont force her to since it's such a personal thing. If thi is go sideways, we're all covered in one way or the other. If disposables run out, there's the reusable and vice versa.

Glad you're a man yet? Lol.

On the trash bags, they are considered normal, but I wouldn't say all sizes are. I have no use for 33 gallon sizes other than prep. If I didnt make a point of picking them up, I wouldn't have them.
 

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Careful with putting it all on plastic. If things end up okay, you'll still have to pay it all off.
Eh - putting eyeglasses on plastic won't damage me. Everyone has to make their own judgement calls - for me, having extra glasses on hand is worth the month it'll take to pay them off.

Anyway, 'more than 95% of eyeglass frames are made overseas, with 90% made in China.' according to a quick google. To me, at this point? yeah, I got another pair. Its not like they go bad, they just keep getting pricier.
 
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