[Nomad 2nd]

Aka "Smoke out"

SOo, I was going to make this post in one of a couple appropriate threads, but as is our wont they have drifted pretty far from where they would be applicable.

As of right now I am bugged in.
Not necessarily for the duration, but for the next week or so. Subject to extension. (I believe we will "know" ~ Feb 23rd)

I am in a better position than most, as a military retiree my pension will hit regardless, and I'll just be missing several (non critical) doctors appointments, so why not...


A couple weeks ago now (seems longer) I gave myself till yesterday to see which way the wind was blowing. (I have a background in Emergency Management/Risk Assessment.)
As I explained to a friend of mine: If I had to go to work to pay the mortgage; I'd show up for work tomorrow.
I don't, so why not.

I didn't get everything done by yesterday, so I gave myself till today, and that's it. There are several "nice to have items" in my P.O. Box in town... And they can sit there.

I got (again) the feed store, hardware store, and grocery stores today.
Got more seeds, various things to take care of my baby orchard (sprays I'll need later in the year.)
The weather is cooperating as I have 2 coolers in the garage full of fresh foods, dairy etc (I have shelf stable dairy and in the freezer also.)
So that when I "emerge" in about 2 weeks (Which I believe to be the most likely course of action) I will not of suffered.

They looked at me kinda fully at the AutoZone when I got 3 sets of filters/oil for a couple vehicles (I keep a couple on the shelves in the garage and was just gonna get 1-2 more, but meh, I'll use it eventually.)
I also got windshield wipers (only stay one ahead on that as rubber has a shelf life.) All ready have air filters and other parts. I feel as if there is a high probability of supply chain issues, so I didn't just prepare to stay home.

Also have ~2,270lbs of parboiled rice on the way to a local friends house (with their consent) for charity giving should the need arise.
I was gonna put up ~that much in a few months anyway and already have the milar inbound.

I dropped a few hundred dollars off with another buddy who cannot afford to bug in, and we have discussed decontamination of a dead drop. (I think that's overkill, but would feel absurd to stay home and then have him hand me something.)


As far as I know, although it has been discussed no one has "popped smoke" (although several of us are long term Homebodies as I used to be.)
So I figured I'd make those considering it feel a little more comfortable by posting this post/thread.

Again:
I think this is overkill, but better 2 weeks early than a day too late.


... Now where in all these piles is my fire resistant underwear...

 

[ajole]

Huh. When I worked at NAPA in the summers, it was more common to sell filters by the dozen, than not.

But we had a lot of truck companies, oil field support, and so on. When you have 57 gen sets on pumping pads, or 45 semi tractors, bulk filters are kind of a big deal.

Good luck with your thing...:thumb:

 

[Colt]

Aka "Smoke out"

SOo, I was going to make this post in one of a couple appropriate threads, but as is our wont they have drifted pretty far from where they would be applicable.

As of right now I am bugged in.
Not necessarily for the duration, but for the next week or so. Subject to extension. (I believe we will "know" ~ Feb 23rd)

I am in a better position than most, as a military retiree my pension will hit regardless, and I'll just be missing several (non critical) doctors appointments, so why not...


A couple weeks ago now (seems longer) I gave myself till yesterday to see which way the wind was blowing. (I have a background in Emergency Management/Risk Assessment.)
As I explained to a friend of mine: If I had to go to work to pay the mortgage; I'd show up for work tomorrow.
I don't, so why not.

I didn't get everything done by yesterday, so I gave myself till today, and that's it. There are several "nice to have items" in my P.O. Box in town... And they can sit there.

I got (again) the feed store, hardware store, and grocery stores today.
Got more seeds, various things to take care of my baby orchard (sprays I'll need later in the year.)
The weather is cooperating as I have 2 coolers in the garage full of fresh foods, dairy etc (I have shelf stable dairy and in the freezer also.)
So that when I "emerge" in about 2 weeks (Which I believe to be the most likely course of action) I will not of suffered.

They looked at me kinda fully at the AutoZone when I got 3 sets of filters/oil for a couple vehicles (I keep a couple on the shelves in the garage and was just gonna get 1-2 more, but meh, I'll use it eventually.)
I also got windshield wipers (only stay one ahead on that as rubber has a shelf life.) All ready have air filters and other parts. I feel as if there is a high probability of supply chain issues, so I didn't just prepare to stay home.

Also have ~2,270lbs of parboiled rice on the way to a local friends house (with their consent) for charity giving should the need arise.
I was gonna put up ~that much in a few months anyway and already have the milar inbound.

I dropped a few hundred dollars off with another buddy who cannot afford to bug in, and we have discussed decontamination of a dead drop. (I think that's overkill, but would feel absurd to stay home and then have him hand me something.)


As far as I know, although it has been discussed no one has "popped smoke" (although several of us are long term Homebodies as I used to be.)
So I figured I'd make those considering it feel a little more comfortable by posting this post/thread.

Again:
I think this is overkill, but better 2 weeks early than a day too late.


... Now where in all these piles is my fire resistant underwear...

We had 1 other user go in to isolation already. But I don't blame you. I'd do the same if I could. Might as well plan on taking 6 months off and consider it good fortune if you can cancel early. The dead drop system is also a solid idea and may be very applicable to this situation.

 

[IamZeke]

Death toll keeps rising in China, but the new confirmed cases per day is shrinking.

On the other hand, it has been China's holiday season and people are about to return home to go back to work.

On yet another hand, fewer people will have jobs to return to because big layoffs have started because of the shrinking economy from tariffs in the past put on edge, but the virus has now pushed it over the edge. China's economy is on the slide fast enough that even if the virus disappeared today they would still need more time to halt the slide.

So there are indicators pointing both directions on whether this is still the upslope of the contagion or not.

 

[hardcalibres]

I don't think locking the gate now is over-reacting - particularly where you also go into wait and see mode.

Everyone needs to keep updating their risk and reviewing their own triggers to bug in or out.

For each person that risk reward balance will be at least a bit different.

If this does really go as bad as it could, it looks as though many who considered themselves survivalists will have watched weeks of crisis unfold (without reacting) and then will get stuck in the last minute buying and travel panic with all the other unprepared.

A buying panic like that which has occurred in Singapore already, but located in the US (and repeated all over it) would be about a thousand times more brutal.

It is ironic considering all the talk here over the years about the inevitability of people getting stuck in enormous traffic jams if bugging out from some calamity that gives everyone a few hours notice. Most have agreed that getting a jump in advance of "normal" people is critical.

If anything, this crisis shows the dangers of a slowly unfolding crisis and the effect of people normalizing drip fed data (aka "the boiling frog").

 

[Nomad 2nd]

It felt very surreal today;

I was pretty well prepped, bought "more" 2 weeks ago. And have been topping off since. (100% coco powder lasts forever right.... I MAY of bought "several" flats!):

I was in the fortunate position of having adequate funds available; (by tapping my savings for building a house) but I kept it to "will I use this before I goes bad no matter what"
I'll simply put back the money as I consume the "extra" for the most part.

I'm still under $250 of "wasted money" although some items will take a very long time to be used. (Hardware, etc)

I doubt I'll be doing much of anything (but resting) tomorrow.
But it'll take me days to find places for all this "stuff"
It's amusing, but I've done pretty good simplifying my diet, cutting back on sugars and carbs, eating mostly meat, fruit and some vegies.
Then it'll be working in the garden and orchard.

...no matter what I'll be eating more junk food over the next few months.
(Don't want to be tempted to make a "quick run to town." )

As far as indicators going both ways:
That is dependant upon them confirming cases.
I just want to see more data develop.

 

[Calm]

At this point do not blame you, these major changes of double the incubation period mean one thing that..... they do not know anything about this virus.

I have heavy training in disaster preparedness and safety also.

And that ship in Japan... you know, that it has the best scientist in the world on it studying this thing. Those best scientists are underfunded and are reporting the last few days,.. they basically know almost zero right now, per medical search engines.

The fact they do not know how it spreads changes hour by hour....it is a coin toss-up.

I need a few more things and I am closing down also. Not by fear, but the understanding until they get their ducks in a row and make major wisdom decisions about this whole mess. I will be heads-up at that point. But waiting two weeks to see??? as the first plan is falling into my trash can fast.

I know from Hurricane warning that people clean out stores in one day's time as far as food and anything you made need...., you have to be rather insane to wait....if no possible pandemic??, I will need all of it ... for the next major flood, tsunami, earthquake, hurricane or volcano to blow so it is never wasted.

I got tons of house projects, things do list is a few pages.... and yard repairs to keep me major busy so, no reason to be running around anyhow right now.

 

[roseman]

Pretty much hunkering down here because we can. Writing to see if it gets worse.
Can't rely on the media for accurate info as they just want to sell advertising.

 

[PeterWiggin]

I love Douglas Adams!

 

[Corpus]

I love Douglas Adams!

That’s what I thought he was referring to also.
So long...

 

[Calm]

Pretty much hunkering down here because we can. Writing to see if it gets worse.
Can't rely on the media for accurate info as they just want to sell advertising.

I so agree......If you have been in a disaster area, what is in the media and what is really happening is beyond laughable. Most of reporting is just uneducated guessing or taking insane sources off of twitter...but it is almost always BS.

The public meeting to the public by top organizations are political, and often the advice to the public is a screaming joke to those who need help. Press conference about what you know and what is told the public comes down to shut up and get out of our hair....so, go home and everything will be fine.

It would be nice to get real source but that takes weeks of research which most people do not have access to.

The only time when you know it is real deal is when those sirens go off, then you better be ready for whatever is coming.

 

[BASS]

As with many topics: "It may depend on where YOU are".

We can bunker down if we need to. If we had to we can stay inside for weeks. Well I can my wife "would need to get out". I have not been out much the past few months. I have most of my needed drugs and "can get by for awhile".

Food? We are fine "for awhile" also. The liquor closet could use some work.., but we can get by except the wife wine would run out. My things not so much.

I have stocked a lot of food and things my wife has no idea of what I have done. :

I will be filling in the "voids" soon. But I am not "going to panic...", but I will be monitoring the health news several times a day.

My family members don't have the ability to "stay home". They have jobs they need to work at. I/We don't. We are both retired. Hey, we worked for it. :

None of my family members live with us. They are grown and have their own families and homes.

 

[dealfinder500]

I didn't get everything done by yesterday, so I gave myself till today, and that's it. There are several "nice to have items" in my P.O. Box in town... And they can sit there.

Just an FYI: but you might want to see how long your PO will hold them for you. Assuming they aren't actually in your PO Box (unless maybe you have a very large box), the PO might only hold them for so long before they send them back.

I had that almost happen once. I don't have a PO box but have a mailbox, but I would think it would be similar. The previous mailman was very lazy, and if it was winter and you had a package, instead of driving up your driveway and leaving the package on the porch, he'd leave a slip in your box saying you had to come to the PO and pick it up and you only had so many days to pick it up before it would be sent back. In college we had a small PO there and it was the same thing - your mailbox would only hold a handful of letters so if you got a package you got a slip. That was a long time ago and I don't recall if it had a time frame on it.

Maybe you are already familiar with that and your PO might be different. But I just figured I'd mention it in case you didn't know.

 

[Nomad 2nd]

Just an FYI: but you might want to see how long your PO will hold them for you. Assuming they aren't actually in your PO Box (unless maybe you have a very large box), the PO might only hold them for so long before they send them back....
.

Maybe you are already familiar with that and your PO might be different. But I just figured I'd mention it in case you didn't know.

Thank you, but although I say 'P.O. box' for simplicity sake is a commercial business (unlike USPS, anyone will deliver there and it doesn't come up as a P.O. Box.)

I routinely go over a month without checking my mail/picking up packages, and I have made arrangements for 2 different people to have access to either pick them up (dead drop guy)
Or, in the case of someone for whom I'm the BOL for, he will hit it on his way out of town if practical. (And I'll get them after he goes through what's now up to a month of quarantine.)
We will know before it hits a point where they send them back.
(Almost like I planned this out!):

Thank you though.

 

[Nomad 2nd]

That’s what I thought he was referring to also.
So long...

Yep.

Don't know the Adams guy.

 

[Nomad 2nd]

Well, I'm an idiot/that didn't last long.

Broke "quarantine" today as the rice deal I was assured was a done deal. ... Wasn't.

Ended up driving quite a ways early this morning and picking up 1,850lbs of parboiled (I f I'm gonna be eating it the rest of my life I'm getting the good stuff.) rice that is now parked at my friends house.
And while I was at it risking death to save other people.:

I picked up my mail.

But NO MORE!

I Am now gonna go curl up on my bed and pass out (if I can) as my crippled ass moved basically a ton of rice today.

The good thing is at $0.40/lb it came in nice #25 boxes, perfect for (them, not me) to pass out to people. (At just under 1,400 calories a pound a box should do per person per month with their cranberries and whatever else is in the back of their cupboards.)

And I've got enough milar to put it all in in a month when this blows over.

Where did I put the rum....

 

[Steve_In_29]

Even absent something like the Kung Flu, we are semi hunkered down just in daily life already. We pretty much only go to town once a week and could avoid doing so for months if need be.

Though the Post Office might get a bit upset at our overflowing PO Box. In which case I could arrange for the neighbor who works there to clear out my box and drop it off at the house.

I am thinking I can pretty safely make at least next Monday's trip but would likely skip our usual meal at the restaurant.

We are retired and absent the total collapse of the Federal Gov our money will keep showing up in our various accounts.

We also both have a good towel.

 

[Steve_In_29]

Death toll keeps rising in China, but the new confirmed cases per day is shrinking.

On the other hand, it has been China's holiday season and people are about to return home to go back to work.

On yet another hand, fewer people will have jobs to return to because big layoffs have started because of the shrinking economy from tariffs in the past put on edge, but the virus has now pushed it over the edge. China's economy is on the slide fast enough that even if the virus disappeared today they would still need more time to halt the slide.

So there are indicators pointing both directions on whether this is still the upslope of the contagion or not.

The cases per day is shrinking because the Chinese have changed how they count.

They recently announced that to be a confirmed case now requires the patient to test positive AND display symptoms. Absent the latter they don't get added to the total.

 

[Madoc]

I never expected to live forever - thanks to both a drill sergeant (RIP) and my chosen profession. But at the same time while I try to avoid hastening said inevitable demise, I have decided to take on another paid assignment far from home because that's what I do and the money goes to wife'n'kids for their future regardless. I will still prep-in-place on arrival (bacon! vodka! chocolate! plus sensible stuff etc) to have some choices in the very short term. Staying at home right now; not for me thanks. I may regret it but if it all really does go belly-up I won't regret it for long amirite?

I think we all have different reasons for how we're reacting and we have thought them through, so they are valid for us.

If SHTF I hope the internet stays up long enough to see how 'we'uns here' all are doing, for a while anyway!

 

[Steve_In_29]

I never expected to live forever - thanks to both a drill sergeant (RIP) and my chosen profession. But at the same time while I try to avoid hastening said inevitable demise, I have decided to take on another paid assignment far from home because that's what I do and the money goes to wife'n'kids for their future regardless. I will still prep-in-place on arrival (bacon! vodka! chocolate! plus sensible stuff etc) to have some choices in the very short term. Staying at home right now; not for me thanks. I may regret it but if it all really does go belly-up I won't regret it for long amirite?

I think we all have different reasons for how we're reacting and we have thought them through, so they are valid for us.

If SHTF I hope the internet stays up long enough to see how 'we'uns here' all are doing, for a while anyway!

So where are you off to?