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Grevcon 10
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246 out of how many vaccinated?

And which vaccines?
I can see it coming. You're about to assume that every single person vaccinated has been exposed and calculate effectiveness based on total infections divided by total vaccinated. Very few vaccinated people are even exposed to the virus or would have been diagnosed with COVID had they not gotten the vaccination. And no one is tracking if they got exposed and infected or exposed and not infected at various time periods post vaccination. The issue is that it wears off and people can't seem to grasp that, which is going to screw everyone when they think they're still immune later during a seasonal surge in cases.
 

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I just love the amount of silliness and BS we can get into one thread in only a few days.

I mean seriously. What a perfect storm of BS and ignorance.

I REALLY wish we could just finish this stage of evolution, and move on.
 

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Here’s a challenge: go back a year and look at some of the posts from self- proclaimed “experts” posting in this thread and other Covid threads and see how good their predictions were.
 

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White Hat
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I can see it coming. You're about to assume that every single person vaccinated has been exposed and calculate effectiveness based on total infections divided by total vaccinated. Very few vaccinated people are even exposed to the virus or would have been diagnosed with COVID had they not gotten the vaccination. And no one is tracking if they got exposed and infected or exposed and not infected at various time periods post vaccination. The issue is that it wears off and people can't seem to grasp that, which is going to screw everyone when they think they're still immune later during a seasonal surge in cases.
You ought to know me better than that by now, Colt.

When I calculate statistics, they're based on extremely conservative assumptions, and that one wouldn't pass my sniff test.

But I still wanna know out of how many vaccinations.
 

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Grevcon 10
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You ought to know me better than that by now, Colt.

When I calculate statistics, they're based on extremely conservative assumptions, and that one wouldn't pass my sniff test.

But I still wanna know out of how many vaccinations.
This is damn near impossible to give a real answer to. The statistics aren't presented in a useful way and are rolling numbers. The question is, vaccinated when? This was probably a tally from the end of March or first 2 days of April. So then they won't count any infection that was diagnosed in someone who was vaccinated in March or most of February. You don't just have to have received 1 shot, but you also have to be eligible to be counted and you have to report it all the way up the chain with voluntary reporting conducted by people who have an incentive not to report.

360209


This is at least 1 shot. So you can probably cut that number in half of people who had received their 2nd shot as of the start of February and were eligible in time to have an infection counted in the End of March/Start of April tally, with none of them having been eligible for counting for longer than 2 months.

SWAG of 0.06% of eligible people were diagnosed, granted they were all before antibody levels started to decline and many were only eligible for a few days. The general population having a 0.03% chance of being infected each day during January. So vaccinated persons who were eligible for a week had a 0.21% chance of being infected without vaccine. 0.9% for a month. 1.8% chance for 2 months. But the way statistics are done I can't compare that amount of exposure for vaccinated persons. The numbers all lump together vaccinated people eligible for 1 day with people eligible for 2 months to get infection rates with numbers heavily weighted towards people with less exposure time due to increasing vaccination rates and less exposure quantity due to decreased case rates in the general population and warmer weather.
 

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Here’s a challenge: go back a year and look at some of the posts from self- proclaimed “experts” posting in this thread and other Covid threads and see how good their predictions were.

How did I do?

January 21 and January 22.

Predicted zithromax, rocephen, and antiviral combo (picked wrong antivirals but we didn't know the ones used to day existed)
Predicted under-reporting with wide range of symptoms from "cold like sympotms to pneumonia"

Predicted supply shortages.
Correctly Predicted ACE receptors would play a role in this virus. Incorrectly thought ACE inhibitors would play a role in treatment.

Speculated bioweapon.

Jan 24
most likely "only" lethal to elderly...
 
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