[Kid at Heart]

I've participated on another site (ROE2 at Yahoo Groups) for about 10 years. That is an energy site. More specifically, about petroluem and crude oil products. Our main topic of conversation is "Peak Oil". Simply put, that means we are demanding more oil than can physically be brought out of the ground. There are and will be shortages. No one is saying that there will be NO oil, only that demand will exceed supply. What is the typical means to VOLUNTARILY reduce the demand of a limited product? Price increases!

EVERY part of our current lives has an energy component. Historically, that energy component has been cheap. As you have noticed in the last several years, it has gone up.

Our economy has declined enough, to allow energy prices to subside to a lower level. As a population, we're not buying as many items. Those items aren't being transported by trucks which gobble fuel. Those items aren't made of material (plastics) which are petroleum heavy. We aren't happy with our finances and aren't driving as much. All these things come together to reduce the demand for energy. And the price of energy has come down.

Something else to remember is that FARMING is energy intensive. Farmers use massive pieces of equipment that gobble fuel, fertilizer, insecticides and herbicides that are all chemical (petroleum) heavy. And then those agricultural products have to be shipped to market by trucks that gobble fuel.

If the economy picks up, and we need to talk global as well as domestic, the demand for energy will pick up. That will drive the prices back up. Did you as an individual enjoy $5.00 a gallon fuel? Did the employer enjoy $5.00 a gallon fuel? Think $8.00 a gallon! Will this affect your lives? Will this affect your businesses? There can be fits and starts to try and rebuild the economy, but fuel prices (energy prices) will match - and beat, business gains.

THE ECONOMY HAS TO DECLINE BECAUSE WE DON"T HAVE THE ENERGY (FUEL) TO SUSTAIN A ROBUST ECONOMY!

On this site and on ROE2, people are prepping. The reasons are different but they manifest themselves in much the same way. They foresee energy shortages, job shortages, food shortages, and security problems. Both sites will include natural disasters and political unrest in discussions. Both sites are heavily favoring "Get The H*** Out Of Dodge" while you can!

 

[janit0r]

i don't about a rebound, but i believe the american standard of living will change. and a lot of american will not be happy about it.

 

[Crackshot]

There is enough fuel to sustain a robust economy. The problem is that we have a lot of people used to wasting fuel doing whatever they want to. There is no reason for anyone to go shopping every day when you can get everything you need for 2 or 3 weeks in one trip with a little planning. What we need is for people to be more efficient.

 

[LuniticFringeInc]

We could have all the fuel in the world but with the current business policies now in place at the moment, we are not going to recover for a very long time. The high cost of energy will only slow the growth even further. One thing I am definitely certian about, is peoples out look, expectations and standard of living is going to have to change considerably.

 

[aramchek]

Peak XYZ doesn't necessarily mean shortages overall (some people will undoubtedly continue to have access). What it implies is that the cost/energy/work in extracting/finishing/refining exceeds the sale value of the product itself.

I'm not sure how far we can go with this theory, since products are interrelated. But if gas, for example, went to $20/gallon, as salaries continue to remain stagnant (or decline), maybe it would be a return to the Victorian (or earlier) period. Most people would be forced to quit their jobs with the big company in the city, and find some simple work within walking distance of their house.

Farming is energy intensive, horticulture far less so. The sort of farming which requires hundreds/thousands of acres for animal feed corn, corny syrup for the soda and junk food manufacturers, etc. is indeed a very intensive farming. But it's possible to support a family on just a couple acres of good soil, growing vegetables and picking them by hand. I know of some farmers who actually make a reasonable living growing tomatoes in greenhouses. No tractors or pesticides required at all.

But our overall problem clearly isn't a lack of resources, plague, natural disaster, or lack of efficiency. It's a distribution problem. Too few control too much, and our government is a failing state at maintaining a sustainable socio-economic order. We're coddling the rich and producing too many people in poverty, with no opportunity, no markets they can dabble in, no resources for them to try their own hand at.

 

[bcvojak]

There is enough fuel to sustain a robust economy. The problem is that we have a lot of people used to wasting fuel doing whatever they want to. There is no reason for anyone to go shopping every day when you can get everything you need for 2 or 3 weeks in one trip with a little planning. What we need is for people to be more efficient.

Owning a camper, I hang out on an RV forum quite a bit. I always laugh when people there use their big Ford/Doge/GM 3500 series trucks as a daily driver, and then complain about the cost of fuel.

I'll post something like: My Kia Rio which I paid $13K for, gets 32 mpg (new ones get 40 mpg), why not buy one of those. To which I get responses like "I CAN'T AFFORD A SECOND CAR!!!!'

So you have a $45K truck, a $70K 5th wheel, all of the equipment, generators and other stuff you need, but you can't afford a $13K car to save a ton of cash on fuel costs.

I have a 2500 series truck. Combined average is 12 mpg!! (14 highway). We don't drive it unless we NEED to drive it.

It's not that people CAN'T change. Most just don't WANT to change. . .

 

[MIL-DOT]

It's not that people CAN'T change. Most just don't WANT to change. . .

At the end of the day,is there REALLY a difference ? At this point, I don't much care WHY people are stupid, I got my hands full just dealing with the fact that they ARE stupid.

 

[FranchiseKid]

I have pounded the table a couple times regarding the energy equation, and I know others have as well. This world was "globalized" on $30/b oil. But instead of creating efficiencies to maintain (for as long as you can) an effective ROE, we created this suburban sprawl and our landfill based, use it today - chuck it tomorrow - buy another one (replacement economics, if you will), nightmare. To remedy our lust for "stuff", we pumped credit into the equation. Credit used to purchase energy, or its end product. But we have crossed the threshold where we cannot possibly keep up with the diminishing value of the credit we produce to purchase the energy.

The equation is now very simply, but wildly damning. We produce more credit, to buy more energy, to pay for the old claims/credit. Each time we do that the credit is devalued further. Add in the dimishing returns on "cheap" energy, and you have "bailout" after "bailout" which is the little girl running around trying to plug each hole in the dike. It cannot, and will not, be successful.

Every aspect of the patient is deathly ill. From demographics, to debt levels, to diminishing cheap oil. Every "fix" only makes it worse and speeds up the process. The half-live of each fix gets shorter and shorter by definition of the above equation.

It's lights out. Figuratively.... and perhaps literally.

 

[FranchiseKid]

At the end of the day,is there REALLY a difference ? At this point, I don't much care WHY people are stupid, I got my hands full just dealing with the fact that they ARE stupid.

Technically there is a difference... those that recognize this fact will prepare accordingly. Those that do not, will not... there is a whole new set of circumstances to prepare for when you consider the energy equation. Those that change their lifestyle ahead of the brick wall will be in a position to maintain that standard of living instead of looking like some beat up dude in the meth clinic shivering on the floor foaming at the mouth.

 

[MIL-DOT]

Technically there is a difference... those that recognize this fact will prepare accordingly. Those that do not, will not... there is a whole new set of circumstances to prepare for when you consider the energy equation. Those that change their lifestyle ahead of the brick wall will be in a position to maintain that standard of living instead of looking like some beat up dude in the meth clinic shivering on the floor foaming at the mouth.

Technically ?.....TECHNICALLY ??? That term is most commonly used in oppostion to the term....."realistically" :
Come on,bro, I know better than to think you actually believe that those that merely "change their lifestyle" will manage to evade the cataclysm that is coming.

 

[ChapNelson]

What makes the US Government/Economy so special that we do not need the cyclical "lean years" that every single solitary other government, tribe, culture, system of human interaction, not to mention nature itself, has required since the dawn of human reckoning?

When lightning strikes in the forest and starts a forest fire, it cleans out deadfall and weak trees which clears the way for the seedlings of the strongest trees to raise up and grow. The redwood forest, home of some of the biggest trees, has survived countless fires over its lifetime, eventhough a lot of individual trees have not.

I'm neither rooting for nor afraid of a dismal economic forest fire; I'm just going to work on being a strong tree.

 

[FranchiseKid]

Technically ?.....TECHNICALLY ??? That term is most commonly used in oppostion to the term....."realistically" :
Come on,bro, I know better than to think you actually believe that those that merely "change their lifestyle" will manage to evade the cataclysm that is coming.

Playoffs! Play... Playoffs?!

Perhaps I should have clarified. I do not simply mean those that go out and buy a Prius are going to escape. No no. I mean those that completely change their lifestyle "infrastructure" to be very, very energy "lean". Think a hundred years ago, lean.

Realistically, that is what I technically meant.

 

[American Chestnut]

We have been working on that. We will never get to "100 years ago lean" though. I use about $20. worth of gas a month driving to work because it is close and I ride my bike often. (wife burns gas in the van,how much depends mostly on the kids schedules with swimming etc. but she home shools and works from our home) Our electric bill for a large old house with a big family is around $75. a month. We heat with 100% wood which I cut myself and split by hand. Heating Oil was last purchased in 2005 and the tank is still full(which is another concern about the life of the oil).
I know people making 1/2 what I make (where I work) with no kids.... who have 4-6 times the gas bill I have and pay several thousand bucks a Winter to heat their small house or trailer. They would rather die than heat with wood and ride a bike to work.
I have been using the savings to pay down the mortgage for years....and to buy PM's for the last 2 years.

 

[bcvojak]

When lightning strikes in the forest and starts a forest fire, it cleans out deadfall and weak trees which clears the way for the seedlings of the strongest trees to raise up and grow. The redwood forest, home of some of the biggest trees, has survived countless fires over its lifetime, eventhough a lot of individual trees have not.

We use to have plagues that would wipe out a good percentage of our population on a regular basis, and cause resets of society to one level or another. But we became smarter than the viruses and learned how to fight back. We are slowly losing our advantage as more and more "bugs" become resistant to the drugs we use. . . Only a matter of time before we get a visit from "Captain Trips" (1) or one of his relatives. . .


(1) The Stand - S. King

 

[aramchek]

I'm certain the economy can't recover, because capitalism is largely forbidden to 50%+ of the nation. In the early-1800's to the early-1900's a dirt-poor European immigrant could get off the boat, get 40 acres, improve it, farm, harvest resources, etc. bring it to market, prove himself on the open market. The only option left for many people today is to sell their labor as wage-slaves, if lucky enough to "get a job" (let alone have access to resources). We're producing an ever-increasing disenfranchised class, which will eventually include the middle-class among its own ranks.

About the only thing millions of Americans can speculate on is Pokemon cards at this point.

 

[yappat]

Of course the economy will rebound. Will it be exactly the same? No. In all of human history no society has ever stayed the exact same for any length of time. It's one of the wonderful things about humanity. We adapt.

On a personal note, I have a possible opportunity to work from home. Everyone keep their fingers crossed for me! It's the future of customer service based jobs like mine. The more expensive oil gets the more telecommuters you'll see.

 

[tennesseestyx]

THE ECONOMY HAS TO DECLINE BECAUSE WE DON"T HAVE THE ENERGY (FUEL) TO SUSTAIN A ROBUST ECONOMY!

Your reasoning and statements are correct. However, I do not support your premise that the economy has to decline. North America, more specifically the U.S. and Canada have vast oil reserves AND coal. Hundreds of years worth of both... if we were able to drill and mine them. And with much held in Federal lands. Think that's just a coincidence? I think not.

We The People, have allowed a few environmentalists, and both liberal and conservative elitist politicians to dictate our "energy future" since the 1960s. Our Department of Energy has done NOTHING for 40 years. When gas hits $8 or $10 a gallon there will be riots in the streets. And "drill baby drill" will be the new national motto...

 

[Low-Key]

Heating Oil was last purchased in 2005 and the tank is still full(which is another concern about the life of the oil).

No worries on the fuel oil going bad..... it will outlast you. But condensation will eventually makes it's way into it. Then it becomes a hair more difficult to use is all as you have to get the water/mold/algae black snot mess out of it via a good filtration system and it's just as good as freshly refined. It'll last forever.......

Thought I'd throw that out there for you so you can sleep better at night. :upsidedown:

 

[ShellbackBill]

So you have a $45K truck, a $70K 5th wheel, all of the equipment, generators and other stuff you need, but you can't afford a $13K car to save a ton of cash on fuel costs.
.

It's not that they can't afford it, it's that it doesn't make economic sense.
By the time you add up the cost of having that second car, monthly payments, insurance, cost of ownership, maintenance, it's simply cheaper to continue to burn the extra fuel.

My F350 gets 18 highway.

Tell your friends they can get an overdrive unit that will get them 28 highway from
http://www.gearvendors.com
They cost about $3000, even that takes 100,000 miles to pay back at today's gas prices.

A couple of co-workers have them, they do work and they don't reduce your towing capacity.

 

[ShellbackBill]

The economy can rebound. Right now it is being choked to death by the government.

It will rebound when that strangle hold is released.