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Discussion Starter #1
So I have been doing a lot of reading and research talking to my friend who is a economics professor. I have realized SHTF, Teotwawki, etc... will be a lot different than depicted in books and a lot of us preppers imaginations.
I assumed socio-economic collapse would be quick for the most part we wake up and find things just suddenly went even worse. I thought it would be more like depicted by james rawles, joe nobody and others.
But I realized it will be horribly slow, unfortunately my family relies on government money. I am in the military, and in January I ets and will be on unemployment and GI bill, my wife cant work due to a medical condition. So when they start cutting government money they will probably cut my va benefits and unemployment before they will cut welfare.
SO long story short, I will become homeless when they stop paying me and my savings run out, then I bug out. THen is will spread up and down from the middle class, the welfare class will eventually have to be cut, without the middle class and upper class being able to buy the economy will collapse from the bottom up.
eventually even the rich will feel the effects when their companies have no consumers.
This situation opens a myriad of crap that could happen. So the situation wont be the hero bugs out traveling all the way to his BOL.
It will be oh **** I am homeless, so is everyone I know I have no where to go guess its time to bugout.
 

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Capability, not scenarios
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Well, that's one scenario. There are 1,589,762 others.

I personally do not believe in the "cuts" theory--IMO it's far more likely we'll see money printing to maintain benefits and spending.

But I could be wrong on that--as I could be wrong w/r/t any number of other scenarios.

That's why I believe prepping should involve creating capabilities and flexibility, and except in rare circumstances should not be scenario-driven.

No matter what happens--hyperinflation, deflation, Yellowstone Caldera blows, economic collapse, EMP, anything--you're still going to need water, food, defense, hygiene, first aid/medical, and heat/cooking fuel/light. So focus on those things first.

Then if there's a threat specific to your locale--you're downwind from a nuclear power plant, say, or in hurricane alley--then prep for that.

Anyone who says they can predict what will happen is, um, deluded. They have to be able to predict the behaviors of people singly and in groups, anticipate responses, know what the government will do, know how other governments will respond to those actions, know what the markets will do, know how terrorists might try to take advantage of a breakdown, know what necessities will be in short supply...in other words, they can't.

So your best bet is lay in sufficient supplies of the big six above, and work to allow yourself maximum flexibility to respond to whatever happens.

***********

It comes down to this: do you want to bet your life on what an economics professor thinks might happen? Nothing against economics professors--one of my best friends is an economics professor--but they don't know any better than you or I know. You know what they say about economists: they have been successful in predicting 9 of the last 5 recessions. And 2 of the 7 before that.

People new to prepping gravitate naturally, I think, to specific scenarios. Maybe they come from a book they read that lit a fire under them (Lights Out, One Second After, Going Home, Lucifer's Hammer), and that dominates their imagination and their thinking.

Lord knows that describes me (Lucifer's Hammer). But as I read more, and thought more, and saw people's responses to various events, I began to prep more generally as opposed to specifically, w/r/t to scenarios.

Focus on the big six, and focus on do-able time frames (2 weeks is a great goal to start), and you will be better prepared than 99 percent of the population.
 

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So I have been doing a lot of reading and research talking to my friend who is a economics professor. I have realized SHTF, Teotwawki, etc... will be a lot different than depicted in books and a lot of us preppers imaginations.
I assumed socio-economic collapse would be quick for the most part we wake up and find things just suddenly went even worse. I thought it would be more like depicted by james rawles, joe nobody and others.
But I realized it will be horribly slow, unfortunately my family relies on government money. I am in the military, and in January I ets and will be on unemployment and GI bill, my wife cant work due to a medical condition. So when they start cutting government money they will probably cut my va benefits and unemployment before they will cut welfare.
SO long story short, I will become homeless when they stop paying me and my savings run out, then I bug out. THen is will spread up and down from the middle class, the welfare class will eventually have to be cut, without the middle class and upper class being able to buy the economy will collapse from the bottom up.
eventually even the rich will feel the effects when their companies have no consumers.
This situation opens a myriad of crap that could happen. So the situation wont be the hero bugs out traveling all the way to his BOL.
It will be oh **** I am homeless, so is everyone I know I have no where to go guess its time to bugout.
Look towards Europe for how the slow economic decline will happen. There are no new ideas; just old ones made fresh for today.

Before what you say happens. The USA will impose a VAT to deal with the debt and deficit. In England it started small 5% - now 18%+. But once in place it is easy to raise it.

So, you will get your $ but it will be taken away by the VAT.

This will probably begin in 8 years or so.
 

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Live Secret, Live Happy
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So I have been doing a lot of reading and research talking to my friend who is a economics professor. I have realized SHTF, Teotwawki, etc... will be a lot different than depicted in books and a lot of us preppers imaginations.
I assumed socio-economic collapse would be quick for the most part we wake up and find things just suddenly went even worse. I thought it would be more like depicted by james rawles, joe nobody and others.
But I realized it will be horribly slow, unfortunately my family relies on government money. I am in the military, and in January I ets and will be on unemployment and GI bill, my wife cant work due to a medical condition. So when they start cutting government money they will probably cut my va benefits and unemployment before they will cut welfare.
SO long story short, I will become homeless when they stop paying me and my savings run out, then I bug out. THen is will spread up and down from the middle class, the welfare class will eventually have to be cut, without the middle class and upper class being able to buy the economy will collapse from the bottom up.
eventually even the rich will feel the effects when their companies have no consumers.
This situation opens a myriad of crap that could happen. So the situation wont be the hero bugs out traveling all the way to his BOL.
It will be oh **** I am homeless, so is everyone I know I have no where to go guess its time to bugout.
You might want to plan to get a civilian job and an education, instead of planning to live out of a bag for a couple of weeks. Perhaps your GI bill will get cut, but perhaps not before you graduate.

The unemployment rate in Iowa and the Dakotas is around 4-5%.

The oil companies hire military guys. They pay really well.

Your GI bill will help fund an education at one of their state universities. A mechanical engineering degree from Iowa State or North Dakota State will keep you employed for the rest of your life. They pay us very well.
 

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Anti-Communist
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Whether you like it or not be it inflation or some other cause, there will be a precipitous rapid decline. In its current condition the economy cannot last more than a few years. What caused the last stock market crash was derivatives, triggered by mortgage defaults. Again those same derivatives will cause the next one. This time there is 441 trillion in interest rate derivatives, that will trigger as bond rates continue to increase. It may be tomorrow or a couple more years, but the slow decline is one that cannot happen based on the facts. Eventually they will no longer be able to print money to mask over the problem and you get a collapse, this is beginning now. Even despite the 85 billion a month the Fed is buying of T-bills, the Fed is no longer having an effect on rates.
 

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Retired Army
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Re-up. Live as cheap as you can. Have your wife put in for disability if she has a medical problem. It takes a long time to do, and you'll be working while this goes on. Give yourself time to prep for that ETS.
 

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Well, it looks like you've found one of a billion apocalypse scenarios. Not to diminish what you've said, but it is my view that most Americans wouldn't stand for seeing veterans lose their pensions, care, all of that so...I hope I'm right about that. The good news (not really) is that if they really did substantially cut or outright eliminate what you fellas get, chances are that things would already be on the verge of economic collapse.
 

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Well, it looks like you've found one of a billion apocalypse scenarios. Not to diminish what you've said, but it is my view that most Americans wouldn't stand for seeing veterans lose their pensions, care, all of that so...I hope I'm right about that. The good news (not really) is that if they really did substantially cut or outright eliminate what you fellas get, chances are that things would already be on the verge of economic collapse.
I disagree. Pubic opinion can be swayed to make cuts. There was a news story recently about those out of the service who get fractional disability checks by 'gaming' the system. It had one example of a guy who get $100/mo for a twisted ankle he got while playing basketball.

Then if things get bad enough there will be stories where vets get health care for issues not related to service injuries while the average citizen has to pay high costs.

Don't forget the 'bonus army' of WWI.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Re-up. Live as cheap as you can. Have your wife put in for disability if she has a medical problem. It takes a long time to do, and you'll be working while this goes on. Give yourself time to prep for that ETS.
I can't re up bum knee the army is really strict these days on who gets to stay in. we have savings etc, and enough preps to be completely self sustaining for over a year, I even have some items most preppers think are luxuries ie tobacco.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
I disagree. Pubic opinion can be swayed to make cuts. There was a news story recently about those out of the service who get fractional disability checks by 'gaming' the system. It had one example of a guy who get $100/mo for a twisted ankle he got while playing basketball.

Then if things get bad enough there will be stories where vets get health care for issues not related to service injuries while the average citizen has to pay high costs.

Don't forget the 'bonus army' of WWI.
We get treated any injuries that occurred while in the military day or night on deployment or in garrison, you cant expect them to tell us we are soldiers 24/7 then not pay for when we get into a car accident on our way to work.
 

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We get treated any injuries that occurred while in the military day or night on deployment or in garrison, you cant expect them to tell us we are soldiers 24/7 then not pay for when we get into a car accident on our way to work.
Are you saying that I don't think they should get treatment for that?
 

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Is that all?
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Hey bro, thought about switching to NG? Granted, it's nowhere near full time, but you would be able to maintain some benefits, shot at the px, etc and still bring in a little $$ every month. I know active duty is cutting joes like crazy, but the guard is still taking people.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Hey bro, thought about switching to NG? Granted, it's nowhere near full time, but you would be able to maintain some benefits, shot at the px, etc and still bring in a little $$ every month. I know active duty is cutting joes like crazy, but the guard is still taking people.
I am don't with the military I have already been in the guard once and these days the price of Tricare reserve select is almost more than I would make at drill. plus if the gov't didn't have enough money for va benefits they would furlough the guard. If the va benefits got cut and the welfare etc was cut the military wouldn't be getting paid either but I do believe they would pay the military till the last possible moment.
 

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Come contract for a couple years. There is still work to be had paying good money. You could pass out ping pong balls at the MWR in AFG and make 85k. Take that money and buy land with low property taxes.

Oilfield is another place where they are paying good money.
 

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Proverbs 26:4
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Be prepared for as many likely downfalls as possible that you will face. Take an across the board approach and you can cover more bases than zeroing in one or two specific situations.

No matter what the situation there are a few "givens" that will happen.

Food and water along with electricity and fuel may become scarce and/or hard to acquire.
So guard yourself against such things and you will be far ahead of the pack. Build upon that first with food and water being priority one. Then start to fill in the gaps in other areas.

If you really think it will be a slow descent into the abyss and you will become homeless - I would strongly suggest you start doing something now to counteract that.
If indeed it is a situation like you have described. The elite banksters and corrupt politicians will have their hands full dealing with the populace and trying to foreclose and repossess all those houses. The infrastructure would severely crumble as well. You can't control 150 million homeless people. It would be total chaos and anarchy, and as such you would have a systemic collapse like described in the books you have read.
 

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American fearmaker
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Anyone who says they can predict what will happen is, um, deluded.

By using the word "deluded" you were being nice. Truth is we can prepare for, in general, any number of disasters and none of the ones for which we prepare might be the one that strikes home. But the nice thing is that by being prepared for other disasters, when any disaster strikes then we increase our odds of survival.

I would, infntryman86, think that you might have some time left before anything big hits home. So when you get out of the military you could find some sort of civilian job that would allow you to maybe maintain your fiscal levels or at least kind of extend what you have a bit longer?... Is that possible? Maybe start planning to get a civilian job now that might benefit you before you exit and hit your ETS date?
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Anyone who says they can predict what will happen is, um, deluded.

By using the word "deluded" you were being nice. Truth is we can prepare for, in general, any number of disasters and none of the ones for which we prepare might be the one that strikes home. But the nice thing is that by being prepared for other disasters, when any disaster strikes then we increase our odds of survival.

I would, infntryman86, think that you might have some time left before anything big hits home. So when you get out of the military you could find some sort of civilian job that would allow you to maybe maintain your fiscal levels or at least kind of extend what you have a bit longer?... Is that possible? Maybe start planning to get a civilian job now that might benefit you before you exit and hit your ETS date?
I have these plans the scenario I played out would effect entire groups not just me, and how you been herd sniper haven't been on here in a while myself
 
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