[neiowa]

When this starts impacting shipment of containerloads (an airplane) loads of consumer goods headed west how will this impact our economy (and our "hobby"). Followed by reduced production of goods TO export.

Airline traffic out of China has been substantially reduced. Air freight traffic is huge - repetitive high value consumer goods, JIT parts, "High Tech" parts, aircraft body subassemblies, high priority/"hot" replacement inventory. Interuption on flow will have immediate impact on many US business. Express shippers (Fedex, DHL) move tool models, pilot product, business abd finanical docs. Slowdown will have immediate to long term impact on future projects.

Sea shipment - Only traffic I have seen is Port of New Orleans screening crews that had a chicomland port call in their last 5 stops - 10day to 2wk transit from China to US West coast port. So goods produced before Chinese New Year are still in transit. They go back empty? REFUSE to return? Have another load of contains available for pickup? Be able to unload their East Bound containers (US exports).

US consumer goods where China dominates the market
- LED lights
- Solar junk
- Electronic (or subassemblies) including PCs and "smart" phones
- Clothing (though other areas in Far East have taken over some of this)

Oil - China buys something like 25% of Irans oil. Other big buyers are India and Japan which are pretty darn near to the impact area (any reports from India). The Mullahs are NOT going like (very very bad for Iran) a reduction is export sales of oil. Good bet oil usage in China is down. No driving and less airplane. I've seen a reduction in gas prices in Iowa this week. Correlation?

Ag - less people need less food. Able to move/unload US ag exports in China when they are in quarantine. When containers are offloaded they need it immediately truck out of the port - This possible?

Expansionist aggressive PLA - well they are busy this week. Good time to "quarantine" some manmade islands in the South China Sea? Perhaps the USMC could assist with recover on Subi, Mischief, Fiery Cross, Woody Island? Handout N95 masks and hot cocoa. Some twit said "never let a good crisis go to waste".

http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-10-exports/

 

[NW GUY]

THE CONTAINER ships are weeks in transit. The good thing, anyone with the disease should be showing symptoms by then or buried at sea by a very nervous crew.

When inspection folks come on board they will wonder where Cho Kechi Ken is???

 

[Seven3]

Manufactured goods won't carry the virus, it can't live long without a host.

Strong chance of a disrupted global economy though, and expect the rest of the world to quickly reconsider it's reliance on China for it's supply chains.

The whole China as an emerging superpower poised to overtake the USA is looking pretty shaky at the moment. It always was, with their housing bubble, inefficient command economy and fudging of GDP figures. But this will probably be the blow that brings the whole house of cards crashing down.

 

[Mule Skinner]

When this starts impacting shipment of containerloads (an airplane) loads of consumer goods headed west how will this impact our economy (and our "hobby"). Followed by reduced production of goods TO export.

Airline traffic out of China has been substantially reduced. Air freight traffic is huge - repetitive high value consumer goods, JIT parts, "High Tech" parts, aircraft body subassemblies, high priority/"hot" replacement inventory. Interuption on flow will have immediate impact on many US business. Express shippers (Fedex, DHL) move tool models, pilot product, business abd finanical docs. Slowdown will have immediate to long term impact on future projects.

Sea shipment - Only traffic I have seen is Port of New Orleans screening crews that had a chicomland port call in their last 5 stops - 10day to 2wk transit from China to US West coast port. So goods produced before Chinese New Year are still in transit. They go back empty? REFUSE to return? Have another load of contains available for pickup? Be able to unload their East Bound containers (US exports).

US consumer goods where China dominates the market
- LED lights
- Solar junk
- Electronic (or subassemblies) including PCs and "smart" phones
- Clothing (though other areas in Far East have taken over some of this)

Oil - China buys something like 25% of Irans oil. Other big buyers are India and Japan which are pretty darn near to the impact area (any reports from India). The Mullahs are NOT going like (very very bad for Iran) a reduction is export sales of oil. Good bet oil usage in China is down. No driving and less airplane. I've seen a reduction in gas prices in Iowa this week. Correlation?

Ag - less people need less food. Able to move/unload US ag exports in China when they are in quarantine. When containers are offloaded they need it immediately truck out of the port - This possible?

Expansionist aggressive PLA - well they are busy this week. Good time to "quarantine" some manmade islands in the South China Sea? Perhaps the USMC could assist with recover on Subi, Mischief, Fiery Cross, Woody Island? Handout N95 masks and hot cocoa. Some twit said "never let a good crisis go to waste".

http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-10-exports/

You make some excellent points~!

I think container shipments would be less impacted than air freight. I IMAGINE it takes
longer for a ship to cross than the incubation time for the disease. So, our risk
should be low.

An arriving air freight crew, though, was just in China 14 hours ago.
They might be back and forth several times in the incubation period.
Maybe we can work out scheduling to deal with this...

 

[Nomad 2nd]

Manufactured goods won't carry the virus, it can't live long without a host.
.

It's possible with the small high value goods (phones etc) shipped air.mail.

 

[owlspot]

virus transmission possible

It's possible with the small high value goods (phones etc) shipped air.mail.

especially when sprayed with a coating that acts like a petri dish,,,, supplying nutrients to extend life until it finds it's next host/victim.

bioterrorism at it's most covert.... taking advantage of human greed.....

 

[SCPigpen]

I wondered about this as well. Will really depend on the depth to which this virus is spreading and its actual impact on human life.

The number from the chi-coms is questionable...only time will tell

if a lot of chi-coms die from this they have enough people to pluck from their countryside to plop into factories to keep churning out the products.

 

[neiowa]

THE CONTAINER ships are weeks in transit. The good thing, anyone with the disease should be showing symptoms by then or buried at sea by a very nervous crew.

When inspection folks come on board they will wonder where Cho Kechi Ken is???

NOT - average transit time for modern container ships is 5days, depending on routing (most make a couple port calls in chicomland).

CMA is a major I've used. Look up for yourself if you'd like.

http://www.cma-cgm.com/ebusiness/schedules

 

[neiowa]

It's possible with the small high value goods (phones etc) shipped air.mail.

Air Freight. There are HUGE # of jumbos hauling East bound high value goods. For example much of the overpriced clothing "fashion" women buy flies. Good bet that $25 tee shirt flew (that's why a $5 shirt costs a sucker $25).

 

[dealfinder500]

Air Freight. There are HUGE # of jumbos hauling East bound high value goods. For example much of the overpriced clothing "fashion" women buy flies. Good bet that $25 tee shirt flew (that's why a $5 shirt costs a sucker $25).

I work in the warehouse of a very large US company. One of the products we sell are various USB cables and earbuds, etc. While not cheap $1 store ones, these were far from the top of the line products. Many were store brand.

According to the boxes, they were all air freight. They often would have stickers on them showing their destination airport (usually one in LA, I think). Once or twice I saw one that had been opened by some US government agency for inspection, and they used a special tape to seal it back up.

And these were just small boxes about the size of a basketball. And we'd have pallets and pallets of them. Very inexpensive product. I found it hard to believe their all came by plane, but sure looked that way.

A lot of the stuff does come by boat. Sometimes I'd see cases that got wet - most likely from leaky roof in the warehouse somewhere (there's plenty). But I always liked to picture them as being piled high on a huge cargo ship and the waves got them wet

 

[DG23]

Oil - China buys something like 25% of Irans oil. Other big buyers are India and Japan which are pretty darn near to the impact area (any reports from India). The Mullahs are NOT going like (very very bad for Iran) a reduction is export sales of oil. Good bet oil usage in China is down. No driving and less airplane. I've seen a reduction in gas prices in Iowa this week. Correlation?

Gasoline is down to 1.98 a gallon here and still dropping. :thumb:

Will be filling multiple cans soon at well under 1.80 per gal soon thanks to fuel points the low prices.

 

[svxak47]

Here is a website that will give you a idea of how many ships are on the ocean in real time....if they wanted to "ship" a bio weapon they easily could
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:170.0/centery:21.3/zoom:2

 

[Surviving Suburbia]

especially when sprayed with a coating that acts like a petri dish,,,, supplying nutrients to extend life until it finds it's next host/victim.

bioterrorism at it's most covert.... taking advantage of human greed.....

That would apply to bacteria, but not to viruses because they don't metabolize. Strictly speaking, they're not even life forms, or a "gray area" at best.

Moisture and temperature are the keys to a virus's lifespan outside of a host. Hot and dry = dead virus in short order (30 seconds to 24 hours depending on which virus). Possibly more than 24 hours for some. Smooth surfaces (like countertops) also sustain a virus longer, versus something like paper or cardboard.

I'm not an expert... This is just what I've read in research the past few days.

Thus, I'd think there's a fair chance of transmission via air freight, since the flight China-USA is only 15 hours or so. Other countries even less time, or there's also the possibility of "leapfrogging" via air freight from one country to another with human hosts as intermediates.

Then again, the flight alone is 15 hours. Who knows how many hours that freight spent sitting in a warehouse or in the plane before the flight? And who knows this particular coronavirus's hardiness outside a host? Not me. Not sure anyone does, yet. That'd be great info to have.

I'd be more worried about the crew than the freight. But still possible for the freight to carry it, perhaps. Not enough info yet, at least not that I have.

 

[Surviving Suburbia]

RE: the OP

Good points. I've been slowly deciding the past few days that I'm more concerned about supply chain than pandemic in the US, at least so far.

Supply chain disruption could end up having a synergistic effect on coronavirus mortality and transmission. "Oh darn, looks like those trucks that bring our hospital supplies were depending on Chinese tech to maintain their hubs' computer systems which are currently down because they depend on outsourced IT support which is located in India which is now having a huge epidemic of its own and is in full lockdown mode." I'm shooting from the hip with the details, but you get the idea: domino effect.

 

[DenimDave]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...icultural-medical-products-idUSKBN1ZY1L2?il=0

Well there you go. A big ol'
secondary impact of the various viruses China has been hit with. I'm predicting it could be a good year for farmers, if they stay healthy.

 

[neiowa]

Thus, I'd think there's a fair chance of transmission via air freight, since the flight China-USA is only 15 hours or so. Other countries even less time, or there's also the possibility of "leapfrogging" via air freight from one country to another with human hosts as intermediates.

Then again, the flight alone is 15 hours. Who knows how many hours that freight spent sitting in a warehouse or in the plane before the flight? And who knows this particular coronavirus's hardiness outside a host? Not me. Not sure anyone does, yet. That'd be great info to have.
...

You're very right on the "who knows". Including how long it lives off a host.

A dozen years ago,in a former job, I airfreighted quite a lot in from chicomland (and DHL/Fedex). They keep it moving. As I recall less than 4hr from time goods had to be at APOD until departure. They also move the stuff out fast at US end. "Preclear" thru customs (nothing gets physical inspection). No time to waste as the next 10 birds are right behind this one.

As I recall DHL would be about 30hr from time left our HK office until received in Midwest office (they ship their evening/my right now I'd have it in my office tomorrow afternoon). Freight would be perhaps a day slower as LCL truckline from Chicago vs on a DHL/Fedex van route. So it's FAST.

When ocean then rail then truck of ISO containers. May spend as many days moving on rail/truck in the US as on the boat. At West coast port the containers may be off ship and at consignee in two days.

 

[InOmaha]

It looks like the economic ripple is starting.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-virus-china-idUSKBN1ZY0GG

 

[InOmaha]

Uber suspending accounts in Mexico.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-uber-mexico

 

[InOmaha]

41 casinos shut down in Macau for the next 15 days. They generated 5 times the revenue of Las Vegas in 2018.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deadly-coronavirus-forces-chinas-gambling-hub-to-shut-its-casinos-11580816447

This was fueled partly by a collapse in visitors during the Lunar New Year holiday, which this year began on Jan. 25. The number of mainland Chinese tourists plunged more than 80% during the weeklong holiday, while Macau’s overall visitor tally dropped 78%.

Gross gambling revenue could decline 65% year-over-year in February if Macau’s casinos closed for two weeks, Jefferies analysts Andrew Lee and Lois Zhou said Tuesday.

What are the odds Vegas gets shut down this year? :

 

[InOmaha]

Oil prices dropping due to reduced demand in China and air travel. OPEC looking to cut production.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/oil-bear-market-deepens-as-opec-talks-emergency-action-to-deal-with-coronavirus-crisis.html

Gas here is down to $2.00/gallon in places. Down 0.34 cents from January. I wonder how low it might go.