Survivalist Forum banner

1 - 20 of 24 Posts

·
Generator Wrangler
Joined
·
3,824 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
I expect the stock market will struggle under a Biden Presidency. If that is the case, would it be a smart move to reallocate the funds in your investment portfolio? In the 80's one could just purchase T-Bills that paid up to 9-10%. Not now. So I'm wondering what exactly a reallocation would look like.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
469 Posts
Depends on your age and risk tolerance and how soon you need the money. Cash and bond piles already blew past all time highs and hedging is already extremely high even before Covid. I'm 100% USA stocks because the alternatives aren't great if you are looking for actual yield. I still like leveraged real estate if it's making consistent income. The hedge to inflation isn't gold or bonds, it's just straight stocks. Some sectors are pounded, but many other sectors have smashed records. Tech is very likely to outperform long term. Any dip is going to get bought because the billionaires and even ma and pa consumer are sitting on so much cash.

Sent from my E6810 using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,610 Posts
ZIRP is in place for at least two more years = zero real return for nearly all types of bonds.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,775 Posts
My Chinese stocks took a dive in the Trump years. they threw a 10% dividend but lost 50% of face value. they are on a slow rise now. Same with my Canadian stocks. But nothing has risen like my Ruger stock. I expect these to continue the rise during the biden administration.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,130 Posts
ZIRP is in place for at least two more years = zero real return for nearly all types of bonds.
i moved a little (10%) to cash as I’m paying for my kids college, and paying at intervals I don’t control, so if the stock market is down, I can sell stocks in my Kids 529, and move from cash to stocks in my 401(k)- so no market risk.

I have the cash holding in the TSP G fund, which is the most attractive Demand cash investment available- of course only available if you are current or former .mil or .gov- you can fund it with a401(k) transfer or non Roth IRA. Even so, it barely keeps up with inflation ( and not even that-right now)

Within the stock market, utilities act a lot more like fixed income investimemts, and will not deliver the risk or returns of say FAANG or Microsoft- but their returns should be inflation protected. That’s maybe 5% of my holdings, along with some PMs. Other than real estate ( My house and Farm land), the rest is in stocks- 60-70%. My house is paid off, that’s essentially a fixed income investment.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
469 Posts
My Chinese stocks took a dive in the Trump years. they threw a 10% dividend but lost 50% of face value. they are on a slow rise now. Same with my Canadian stocks. But nothing has risen like my Ruger stock. I expect these to continue the rise during the biden administration.
What you doin' in foreign stocks boy that's as as bad as owning a foreign car haha. I had my whole 401k in emerging markets at one point but I'm done with China for awhile now that they are doing non stop soft attacks on us and allies. It's like shooting your foot to save your face right?

Sent from my E6810 using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
469 Posts
i moved a little (10%) to cash as I’m paying for my kids college, and paying at intervals I don’t control, so if the stock market is down, I can sell stocks in my Kids 529, and move from cash to stocks in my 401(k)- so no market risk.

I have the cash holding in the TSP G fund, which is the most attractive Demand cash investment available- of course only available if you are current or former .mil or .gov- you can fund it with a401(k) transfer or non Roth IRA. Even so, it barely keeps up with inflation ( and not even that-right now)

Within the stock market, utilities act a lot more like fixed income investimemts, and will not deliver the risk or returns of say FAANG or Microsoft- but their returns should be inflation protected. That’s maybe 5% of my holdings, along with some PMs. Other than real estate ( My house and Farm land), the rest is in stocks- 60-70%. My house is paid off, that’s essentially a fixed income investment.
Farm land is going to see some inflation here it's inevitable.

Sent from my E6810 using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
243 Posts
If you can’t explain how and why the market will struggle under a Biden presidency, you shouldn’t have confidence in your decision to reallocate your investments.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,453 Posts
The stock market won't struggle at all under a Biden regime. They are already talking about multiple TRILLIONS of new Federal Reserve Notes being injected in new stimulus packages just this year. Where exactly do you think that money will go? Do you realize that Government Debt is part of the calculation of GDP? Do you realize that TRILLIONS in new debt is massively stock-market positive? It doesn't mean the Federal Reseve Note won't suffer, and that main street America won't suffer, but the stock market? It's going to the moon.
 

·
D. Gibbons is a bad man
Joined
·
5,695 Posts
Positive overall returns on US equities under 2 terms of Obama 1 of Trump and I expect to do just as well under Biden. And I am long only with employer enforced minimum holding periods .
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,287 Posts
The stock market won't struggle at all under a Biden regime. They are already talking about multiple TRILLIONS of new Federal Reserve Notes being injected in new stimulus packages just this year. Where exactly do you think that money will go? Do you realize that Government Debt is part of the calculation of GDP? Do you realize that TRILLIONS in new debt is massively stock-market positive? It doesn't mean the Federal Reseve Note won't suffer, and that main street America won't suffer, but the stock market? It's going to the moon.
Agreed. Stocks are going to be insane, as will crypto. I don't think it's healthy, and I wish that the .gov would be the slightest bit fiscally responsible, but they don't care, they're boomers and on their way out and their great great great grandchildren are set.

To add fuel to the fire, the Fed will keep rates bottomed out and fuel inflation with 0% lending encouraged with zero restraint from all banks.

Economically, main street is screwed. Big business/stocks and crypto are going to skyrocket, land will do well. Everyone outside of that is going to suffer.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,885 Posts
Many in gov.com are greatest generation and younger generations as well. Don't be throwing all the blame on boomers.
 

·
Generator Wrangler
Joined
·
3,824 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
If you can’t explain how and why the market will struggle under a Biden presidency, you shouldn’t have confidence in your decision to reallocate your investments.
Who said I couldn't explain?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,885 Posts
You're right, the "greatest generation" started this mess, the boomers just took up the torch. Everyone afterwards is along for the ride to oblivion with no hope of averting long term disaster and collapse.
You have been voting for decades and share the guilt also.

I know, it is always someone else's fault.

It's kind of like saying your wife is pregnat but it's not your fault.
 

·
Live Secret, Live Happy
Joined
·
15,782 Posts
Folks who believe you can reallocate your way to safety, might want to read up about we got into the last great depression.

The incomming administration will be desperate to keep stocks higher. The Ultimate result of trying to fix too much debt, by borrowing more, will be a massive collapse.

There will come a time to cash it in, and position yourself to survive that collapse.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,287 Posts
Folks who believe you can reallocate your way to safety, might want to read up about we got into the last great depression.

The incomming administration will be desperate to keep stocks higher. The Ultimate result of trying to fix too much debt, by borrowing more, will be a massive collapse.

There will come a time to cash it in, and position yourself to survive that collapse.
Absolutely. Having an exit plan is key. The next few years will be crazy volatile.
 
1 - 20 of 24 Posts
Top