Survivalist Forum banner

How long will COVID-19 affect the USA?

  • End of April

    Votes: 13 8.6%
  • End of May

    Votes: 20 13.2%
  • End of June

    Votes: 14 9.3%
  • It will slow down over the Summer, then ramp through Q4 2020

    Votes: 38 25.2%
  • A full year from February 20 to February 21

    Votes: 6 4.0%
  • 18 Months.... through June of 2021

    Votes: 22 14.6%
  • Two years

    Votes: 8 5.3%
  • Three years

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Five years

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Never, COVID-19 Becomes Annual and Seasonal

    Votes: 28 18.5%
1 - 20 of 27 Posts

·
That'll be the day...
Joined
·
3,734 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
We have a little bit of modeling from other countries, probably enough data to make some educated guesses. China, Japan, South Korea, Italy... etc....

Place your vote for how long you think COVID will stay with us.



.........
 

·
That'll be the day...
Joined
·
3,734 Posts
Discussion Starter #4
I wish we could believe China, because their data is a very steep Bell Curve, essentially stating that they have already whipped it in less than 3 months. But we know they are communist liars.

South Korea is a HUGE anomaly.... What the heck is going on with their situation?

Watching Italy... they may have it for three years!

.....
 

·
That'll be the day...
Joined
·
3,734 Posts
Discussion Starter #5
I just got an announcement that MERS popped its head back up, with a positive case in the Middle East. Late 50 year old man tested positive after a hospital visit the middle of February. I guess that means MERS is still going...... after popping up in 2012.


.......
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
300 Posts
I said end of May. But I suspect it then becomes an annual thing after that.....with vaccines much like the flu does now. They'll probably put it all in one shot......
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
555 Posts
I wish we could believe China, because their data is a very steep Bell Curve, essentially stating that they have already whipped it in less than 3 months. But we know they are communist liars.

South Korea is a HUGE anomaly.... What the heck is going on with their situation?

Watching Italy... they may have it for three years!

.....
From the latest virology reports, it is the mutations, some are super dangerous, and other mutations are milder.

Italy, we are two weeks/three weeks behind them, and following their rates of infection, issues, and deaths. It is noted that the virus here is the same one that is in the EU which is noted to be more dangerous than the one in China. So we will be watching this unfold the next few weeks.

Also, some of the viruses is what they call super spreaders and they create epicenters. We have a very bad bug that is very powerful mutations.

They are now saying mutations are occurring every three weeks, so it does depend on what kind of mutation an area gets hit with.

Korea who knows which mutation they have??, the same one as Wuhan or different? Time will tell? Tons of research needs to be done on all of this.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6 Posts
I largely concur with hoodoo. I think it will slow down in the hotter months and become a seasonal thing, similar to the flu.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
121 Posts
Modern medicine is simply no match for viruses (viri?)

Track record on developing safe effective vaccines for viruses is almost zero.

My dire prediction is that this become a way of life, with a profound impact on society.

-jack
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14 Posts
I wish we could believe China, because their data is a very steep Bell Curve, essentially stating that they have already whipped it in less than 3 months. But we know they are communist liars.

South Korea is a HUGE anomaly.... What the heck is going on with their situation?

Watching Italy... they may have it for three years!

.....
There are two, perhaps three, strains running around - within S. Korea it's likely the least damaging to lungs, and they're testing everyone; early intervention likely is lowering the community spread cases and we'll soon learn if every medical interventions are in part helping too, or if it's the strain?
 

·
The Black Death
Joined
·
232 Posts
Modern medicine is simply no match for viruses (viri?)

Track record on developing safe effective vaccines for viruses is almost zero.

My dire prediction is that this become a way of life, with a profound impact on society.

-jack
You could be 100% correct.

There really are just two outcomes. They develop, test and rollout a vaccine within 18 months and vaccinate everyone over the next 6 months globally, or WE ARE STUCK WITH IT.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,165 Posts
From the latest virology reports, it is the mutations, some are super dangerous, and other mutations are milder.

Italy, we are two weeks/three weeks behind them, and following their rates of infection, issues, and deaths.

From known(!) absolute infection counts US now is 8 days behind Italy and closing the gap.

Your population is larger, but I assume Italy does more tests.

From those countries shown in the graph only South Korea managed to stop the exponential growth so far....
 

Attachments

1 - 20 of 27 Posts
Top