[crash5217]

I stumbled across this article today. It's lengthy but very sobering. I'm not sure if this has been posted before as the article is dated last summer. Might want to rethink the Pac. NW as a bug out location. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

 

[virtuousman]

I live in the PNW and the article is amateur and redundant. This makes the rounds about every 3 or 4 years. Supposedly we're 350 years overdue for the big one. Brilliant minds...still waiting. As with everything else the quality of published material has greatly deteriorated.

 

[dmas]

It was commented on here as was the follow up article.

It pushed me to take a cert class. The feeling was that while this would be a big widespread event, the tsunami would be coastal with Puget sound much less affected. Tsunami inundation maps show my town being hit by maybe two meters, much less than the coast and less than I expected. This is still huge, many times the energy release of California quakes and covering hundreds of miles from Canada to northern California. It will be much worse than Katrina but fortunately the coast worst hit is fairly sparsely populated. The big cities Vancouver, BC and Seattle look to have more shake damage, Portland since its on the Columbia I don't know.
After the offshore quake there would be 10-15 minutes before the tsunami hit the coast. About an hour to get to me and more to hit Seattle.
They recommended we have two months of supplies including water. Big cities to be helped first, smaller populations as they could get to them. Greatest good for the greatest number.

 

[dmas]

I live in the PNW and the article is amateur and redundant. This makes the rounds about every 3 or 4 years. Supposedly we're 350 years overdue for the big one. Brilliant minds...still waiting. As with everything else the quality of published material has greatly deteriorated.

Its a pretty interesting story. The idea of a big quake here was kind of poo pooed until the 80s when a researcher was concerned about all the proposed nuclear power plants. He discovered evidence of past events in drowned forests on the coast and records of a tsunami in Japan from before written records here in the pnw. That was about 300 years ago. Past events were about 250 years apart so we could be overdue. But I think another was almost 1000 years apart so I'm not holding my breath. Yup could happen anytime, could happen after my lifetime. Of course in the Fukushima mirror event scientists warning from just a few years previously were just gaining traction but no preparations had been made before the much larger than expected event hit.

 

[cannonfoddertfc]

State agencies are currently training and preparing for a potential big quake (up to 9.0 possibly). One of the big concerns is the road infrastructure because nearly all the bridges (about a million of them) are not up to current code and they worry that many will collapse due to the quake and subsequent flooding. Depending on the severity of damage to the roads, it could be weeks before assistance reaches rural areas. Also keep in mind, the power will probably be out during all this. If you live in an area that can be completely isolated by a single bridge or by a rockslide, stock up and get your neighbors to do the same.

 

[SnakeRanch]

And people say it can't happen here. My dad was in Anchorage in the 1964 quake, he is of another opinion.

I was in the little ones, in LA 1971, and SF 1989.


People ask, why do you think you need to be prepared for a month, or year without outside help?

To them I say, you gotta be ******* kidding...

 

[MontanaMEL]

FIRST - most of the CERT groups are designed to "keep the sheeple in line" by making them "think" they are doing something AND to enforce some sort of discipline in the aftermath... Join at your own risk, as "sharing of prep's" will be high on their list of to do.

Second - With the correlation of the known effects of the coming Grand Minimum, ie: increased volcanos, increased earthquakes; ANY AREA on or near "known active areas" like the "Ring of Fire" Pacific Ocean Rim needs to pay attention to possible rising water with force!
These studies pointing at "bridges" specific, and "road systems" in general are SPOT ON. Someone think and remember what San Francisco was like after that one bridge was taken down during the ball game. AND, of course, there will be the events "on the other side of the Pacific" to contend with as well...ie: HI, Guam, Japan, etc.
Anyone living "below" 100 ft above sea level needs to have a plan and practice it with and without the aid of any car/tk...in the middle of the night, etc... Your storehouse for prep's need to consider this absolute ELEVATION factor too... Moving water/wave has force you can't even imagine! Good luck to all in such areas.

 

[Viper6Niner]

It's interesting to see preppers scoff at an inevitable quake. When that quake does hit any food and water filters you had before the quake is probably all you are going to have if you are in an urban area. As if most of us needed another excuse to pile dry food higher.

 

[Alaskajohn]

I'm absolutely banking on another big one in my lifetime. A big quake will assuredly cut off my access to the city due to landslides. The small grocery stores in the interior will quickly sell out. It will be a "come as you are" event so the only rational choice is to prepare.

As far as the OPs comments about rethinking the PNW as a place to live or bug out, I came up here from the deep south as I was tired of all the crime, hurricanes, tornados, etc. I'll take my chances up here and there is no perfect location.

 

[Hick Industries]

The west coast of north America have had great quakes in the past, and will see similar quakes in the future, with the Cascadian fault much more likely to cause a nation wide crisis event than the San Andreas. While some seem to discount the risk of this happening in any given year, the chance of it occurring in a human lifetime is very, very high.

Reasonable preps are the same as most other areas. Six months to a years worth of food, water and water filtration, off grid heating and cooking, and some type of portable shelter.

 

[Idaho Survivalist]

big quake in NW

People on the coast are not the only ones needing to prepare. I live 4 counties east of the eastern Washington border and at last week's county emergency committee meeting, this was again discussed. The problem seems to be that many will travel as far as they can on a tank of gas, from the coastal areas, and where they end up will have to take care of them possible injured, having no food, and being in a severe emotional state. Our law enforcement is concerned, but the medical facilities even more.

We have been told by Homeland Security that our power will be out intermittently because our main power comes from a big dam in Washington, and food transportation could be a problem because a lot of food coming to Spokane comes from overseas or South America via Seattle.

 

[Brew]

Looks like a big one coming in a week or so? Or have we already burned half of our weeks notice?

http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=448065

 

[ram]

Several years ago, I was at a FEMA workshop where a City Manager from one of the larger cities in my state was trying to pin down FEMA funding to take care of a massive influx of refugees from the coast in the aftermath of a Cascadia Event. The City Manager was concerned about a situation like the Superdome happening here in the Pacific Northwet. An engineer from our State's transportation department who was sitting next to me started laughing out loud, upsetting the City Manager. He then explained, "There will be no massive influx of refugees away from the coast, because there will be no way to leave the coast. The roads and bridges will be all gone." He opined that the first rough road from the coast to the I-5 corridor would probably not be rebuilt for at least a year.

Some telecom engineers who were participating pointed out that the communication and power infrastructure couldn't be started until after passable roads were rebuilt, starting from Klamath Falls, maybe Bend, and Spokane, continuing on to rebuild I-5 (including all the bridges that will be on the bottom of the Columbia and every other major river). After all that was done, they could start in on coast roads. Most of the equipment will have to be staged out of Spokane, Boise, and Salt Lake, which means the roads over the Cascades will have to be repaired before I-5 gets repaired. After the coast roads were finally in place, the heavy equipment needed to build power lines to the coast could be brought in.

Last year I was speaking with a geologist who works for my state, who expressed the opinion that people on the southern end of Cascadia probably wouldn't see regular dependable electricity for years.

 

[dmas]

The refineries that supply down to Oregon and past Idaho are on Puget sound, originally planned to take advantage of deep draft tankers, though Alaska crude has slowed, hundred car trains from bakken now come in. There doesn't seem to be much concern about them since the tsunami here is projected at two meters. Not so sanguine about pipeline. Or roads though a new truck loading depot was just finished

 

[kimosaubi]

We had a small snow storm a couple weeks ago in the middle of Feb. The storm was to hit at night so we went to the store the afternoon of just to get fresh produce and some meat. I could not believe how bare things were and work had not even let out yet. Just a few years ago shelves would not have been hit that bad. I think all the SHTF movies and shows on tv is having an effect on the public. I am glad of that as we have been preparing for approx. 15 yrs (never enough) and hopefully we will have less neighbors wanting hand outs. (Ramon Noodles)
Keep getting ready...

 

[notyoung]

Something to read while you wait for it

Dig out a copy of Tom Sherry's "Deep Winter" and its sequels ("Shatter", "Remnant"). If you don't have a copy, they're probably still on the web if you look hard enough. The Kindle versions are $5.00 each at Amazon.

I thought the sequence of some bridges falling immediately, others later in the day and a (very) few not falling is probably realistic. Some things from the past were over-engineered and might survive better than a modern "designed to the funding" structure.

Losing power, water, natural gas and all communications services certainly goes along with the damage resulting from an earthquake. Having worked in the telecom and broadcast industries, I can support the immediate loss of communications. Above-ground wiring of any type is susceptible to damage from ice and wind. The shaking of an earthquake would hardly be less destructive than that so any overhead lines will likely be damaged. An earthquake also has the potential to damage buried communications lines, so there goes local and long distance phone service - assuming the telephone exchange buildings survive and have more than one week's fuel for their generators.

As things progress in the story, some people return from their bug out locations because primitive living is too hard (manual tree cutting and wood splitting, for instance), they run out of food or medication or whatever, or the solitude gets to them.

CERT (or whoever) doing food collection from empty houses for same area redistribution is one possibly workable suggestion in the story. Not stopping at occupied houses is probably a very good idea.

 

[ground chuck]

I have family that lives on the sound, I've been telling them for years that they need to get prepared. They have done a bit, but not enough.

 

[METALHEAD1]

I live in the PNW and the article is amateur and redundant. This makes the rounds about every 3 or 4 years. Supposedly we're 350 years overdue for the big one. Brilliant minds...still waiting. As with everything else the quality of published material has greatly deteriorated.

Some of this is laughable. When Fox jumped on this article they projected that everything west of the Cascades would be destroyed by a tsunami. Its obvious that they have never been west of Seattle and think everything is flat as a pancake.

The bad news is that small coastal towns like mine will be hammered by the quake, then probably wiped off the map by a tsunami. The survivors will be on their own for a lot longer than they will prep for, and you'll hear some real horrible stories after its all over.

 

[Viper6Niner]

Some of this is laughable. When Fox jumped on this article they projected that everything west of the Cascades would be destroyed by a tsunami. Its obvious that they have never been west of Seattle and think everything is flat as a pancake.

The bad news is that small coastal towns like mine will be hammered by the quake, then probably wiped off the map by a tsunami. The survivors will be on their own for a lot longer than they will prep for, and you'll hear some real horrible stories after its all over.

I used to live out there. North River to be specific. I have applied at the mill and will be moving back out there as soon as I can. I definitely won't buy a place in Aberdeen though. I prefer a little elevation.

 

[METALHEAD1]

I used to live out there. North River to be specific. I have applied at the mill and will be moving back out there as soon as I can. I definitely won't buy a place in Aberdeen though. I prefer a little elevation.

North River is a great place, good people.

The other problem with Aberdeen - the tweekers, heroin addicts, and bums are like lice here. Sometimes I think a tsunami wouldn't be a bad thing.