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I think Ukraine would be forced to negotiate a peace deal with Russia and the war would end, at least for now. They would have to give up Crimea and the Donbass and commit to disarm and not pursue NATO membership anymore. Not necessarily a bad thing in my view, as it would mean less death and destruction all around. Ukraine isn't really significant in the big picture. Certainly it is not as strategically important as Taiwan is, at least from the US perspective.

As far as NATO, it wouldn't change a thing in terms of NATO security. If Russia attacks a NATO country like Poland then WW III would begin plain and simple. So it is not likely Russia is going to instigate WW III. But say Poland attacks Russia on their own, NATO wouldn't be obligated to help. So hard to say for sure but I think NATO will press on with business as usual and continue to build up within it's territory.

Doesn't really matter though because Biden has been told to fight Russia down to the last Uke. And even with all the goodies and money that Uncle Sam is sending, it won't change the fate of Ukraine significantly IMHO. Once the main Ukrainian army is defeated in the East then Kiev will be forced to resume negotiations less they want to just loose more territory. Personally I think the only way the Ukes could win the war is if NATO countries joined the fight, but that is not likely to happen because it would mean WW III.
Spitfire,

Taiwan has strategic importance from the US perspective ?

Significant symbolic importance is the big thing now.
 

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No….that’s exactly what you said. It may not be what you meant….but the ONLY way to interpret what you said is as Hawk said.
No, you are putting words in my mouth so you can virtue signal to your buddies here. I care not what the Ukes do. Fight on, surrender, makes no difference to me either way. I am 5,000 miles away after all.

You guys are just pilling on because it makes you feel better about yourselves. All I did was try and answer a question about the possible outcomes of this war. I am not engaging with fantasies about Ukrainians marching to Moscow, because it is ridiculous.
 

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No, you are putting words in my mouth so you can virtue signal to your buddies here. I care not what the Ukes do. Fight on, surrender, makes no difference to me either way. I am 5,000 miles away after all.

You guys are just pilling on because it makes you feel better about yourselves. All I did was try and answer a question about the possible outcomes of this war. I am not engaging with fantasies about Ukrainians marching to Moscow, because it is ridiculous.
No one has been saying anything about marching to Moscow.
 

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Well, I've said the U.S. should tell the Chinese they are free to take Siberia...
Im thinking that China never really needed our permission to do that. Though I wonder what the US would have done if say 5 to 10 years ago China had done that.
 

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US, EU, UK: Russia Launched Viasat Attack
(May 10, 2022)

The US, the EU, and the UK say that Russia was the perpetrator of a cyberattack on Viasat in the days before it invaded Ukraine. The attack against the satellite network deployed wiper malware that disrupted communications and wind farms.

Editor's Note

[Honan]
This is an important step in the attribution stakes as it is the first time that the EU has openly identified the source of a cyber attack. It is also important to note that while this attack was aimed at Viasat to disrupt the communications capabilities of the Ukrainian army, it also disrupted businesses outside of Ukraine. It is a good example of why organisations located outside of Ukraine need to be vigilant for cyber attacks that may result in collateral damage against them. So do follow the Shields Up guidance from US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and other government agencies.

[Neely]
For those, like me, who said that was obvious, step back and remember attribution can be tricky and can have serious ramifications if incorrectly done. Further, it’s possible to fake the fingerprint in malware, as was demonstrated in a project John Strand lead where he and his team offered a service which would inject “telltale” fingerprints into an uploaded executable, so it looked like it came from the selected entity. Be patient with those tasked with attribution, provide them tools and information needed, don’t delay mitigation and remediation activities for their result.

Read more in:
  • www.state.gov: Attribution of Russia’s Malicious Cyber Activity Against Ukraine
  • www.theregister.com: US, Europe formally blame Russia for data wiper attacks against Ukraine, Viasat
  • www.scmagazine.com: UK, US and EU attribute Viasat hack against Ukraine to Russia
  • arstechnica.com: US and its allies say Russia waged cyberattack that took out satellite network

survivalist,
Real good Editor's note.

Sometimes the "collateral damage" is, in substance, more critical than the cyber attack target.

Business injury outside of Ukraine, to some of us at least, is more lethal than traditional military fighting with the modern add-on of cyber warfare.
 

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ISW SITREP for 5/13/2022

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions. Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.

Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum, although Russia is using several GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to reach soon. The terrain east of current Ukrainian positions may also favor the Russians attempting to defend their GLOCs, as large water features canalize movement and create chokepoints that the Ukrainians would have to breakthrough.

Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-Donetsk city salient but made little progress. Russian forces attempted a ground offensive from Izyum that made no progress. We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully committed to it yet.[1] Small-scale and unsuccessful attacks on the southern end of the salient near Donetsk City continued but made no real progress.

The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts. The Russians may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.

The Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol continue to fight despite the odds, although Russian attackers appear to have penetrated into the Azovstal facility.

Key Takeaways


  • Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.
  • Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
  • Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.
  • Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.
Immediate items to watch

  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, including by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River, but may have lost the momentum needed to complete this undertaking.
  • Isolated and uncoordinated Russian attacks will likely continue along the rest of the Izyum-Donetsk City salient but will not likely make significant gains.
  • Russian troops may attempt to drive to within artillery range of Zaporizhia City, although it is far from clear that they will succeed.
  • The Battle of Mariupol will, apparently and surprisingly, continue.


 

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Sorry, I could not help myself. I'm 62. Russia was the MASTER to the USSRs SLAVES. I never have and never will care for anything Russian, Chinese, Cuban, N.Korean or Iranian. I'm not a fan of Turkey either or most of the "Stans." It is how it is around here in my family, and we are all close in age.
 

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ISW SITREP for 5/13/2022

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions. Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.

Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum, although Russia is using several GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to reach soon. The terrain east of current Ukrainian positions may also favor the Russians attempting to defend their GLOCs, as large water features canalize movement and create chokepoints that the Ukrainians would have to breakthrough.

Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-Donetsk city salient but made little progress. Russian forces attempted a ground offensive from Izyum that made no progress. We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully committed to it yet.[1] Small-scale and unsuccessful attacks on the southern end of the salient near Donetsk City continued but made no real progress.

The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts. The Russians may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.

The Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol continue to fight despite the odds, although Russian attackers appear to have penetrated into the Azovstal facility.

Key Takeaways


  • Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.
  • Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
  • Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.
  • Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.
Immediate items to watch

  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, including by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River, but may have lost the momentum needed to complete this undertaking.
  • Isolated and uncoordinated Russian attacks will likely continue along the rest of the Izyum-Donetsk City salient but will not likely make significant gains.
  • Russian troops may attempt to drive to within artillery range of Zaporizhia City, although it is far from clear that they will succeed.
  • The Battle of Mariupol will, apparently and surprisingly, continue.


Sub,

Just to clarify for some US Forum members, the term [G] lines of communication in military tactics and strategy is over contacts and not the only conveyance of information via eg radio, messages, signal flags, ...
 

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The Ukrainians decided that fighting and dying was better than rolling over to Russia. Us Americans do not get to make that decision.

And because I find the mass murder the Russians are doing to be downright horrifying I am all for giving their victims weapons. Butt the Ukrainians would have fought even if we were not helping
I guess that's why I respect the Ukrainians. They're fighters. They don't quit. When all seemed lost back in February with frantic reports of a "40-mile convoy" headed to Kiev, they just fought harder.
 

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How many soldiers Ukraine was mobilizing has been a difficult number to pin down. But I'd previously speculated that the Ukrainians outnumber Russian forces. By how much? It was anyone's guess until now. The Defense Minister could be trolling the Russians, but he anticipates having 1,000,000 men/women under arms soon.

Translated:

Ukraine plans to arm a million people to participate in the war. This is the first statement by the Ukrainian authorities on the scale of mobilization

"For the first time, Ukraine has named the number of citizens it plans to mobilize into the army to participate in the war. The Ministry of Defense "focuses on the need to provide 1 million people who will fight the enemy, " Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said .

He noted that the escalation of hostilities provoked an explosive growth in defense needs:

“Ukraine was not fully prepared for this. Not a single country in such conditions (thousands of kilometers of a common border against the backdrop of multiple superiority in resources from the aggressor) would be completely ready. But thanks to the preparatory measures taken and the mobilization of the Ukrainian people, the actions of the authorities, which retained control over the country, the defense was organized.

Reznikov said that in the near future Ukraine will defend itself mainly on its own. However, according to him, more than 1.5 thousand Ukrainian soldiers are already learning to operate the equipment supplied to Ukraine by its partners.

Before the war, about 250 thousand people were employed in the Ukrainian army. "


Original source is Reznikov's Facebook page.

"The deployment of the state mechanism takes a lot of formalities, even for a country at war. And not only in the warring Ukraine.

In the end, the processes that will ensure the increase of Ukraine's defense potential have been launched. This applies to both procurement and production of defense items. We are focusing on the need to provide for 1 million people who will be facing the enemy."


 

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How many soldiers Ukraine was mobilizing has been a difficult number to pin down. But I'd previously speculated that the Ukrainians outnumber Russian forces. By how much? It was anyone's guess until now. The Defense Minister could be trolling the Russians, but he anticipates having 1,000,000 men/women under arms soon.

Translated:

Ukraine plans to arm a million people to participate in the war. This is the first statement by the Ukrainian authorities on the scale of mobilization

"For the first time, Ukraine has named the number of citizens it plans to mobilize into the army to participate in the war. The Ministry of Defense "focuses on the need to provide 1 million people who will fight the enemy, " Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said .

He noted that the escalation of hostilities provoked an explosive growth in defense needs:

“Ukraine was not fully prepared for this. Not a single country in such conditions (thousands of kilometers of a common border against the backdrop of multiple superiority in resources from the aggressor) would be completely ready. But thanks to the preparatory measures taken and the mobilization of the Ukrainian people, the actions of the authorities, which retained control over the country, the defense was organized.

Reznikov said that in the near future Ukraine will defend itself mainly on its own. However, according to him, more than 1.5 thousand Ukrainian soldiers are already learning to operate the equipment supplied to Ukraine by its partners.

Before the war, about 250 thousand people were employed in the Ukrainian army. "


Original source is Reznikov's Facebook page.

"The deployment of the state mechanism takes a lot of formalities, even for a country at war. And not only in the warring Ukraine.

In the end, the processes that will ensure the increase of Ukraine's defense potential have been launched. This applies to both procurement and production of defense items. We are focusing on the need to provide for 1 million people who will be facing the enemy."


Ukraine should be able to muster 3-4 million easy.
 

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We're starting to see Ukraine's grand strategy and time line come into focus.

Zelenskyy wants all of Ukraine back, including Crimea and the Donbas.


Ukraine plans to have 1,000,000 soldiers soon.


Zelensky's advisor, Oleksii Arestovych , states that Ukraine will be ready for counter attacks in late June or July.



Ukraine intelligence chief predicts the war will be over by the end of the year.

 
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