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* I think if Russia is going to actually start moving, it's going to wait until after the Olympics. They also may be closely studying Biden to see if they think he might be out of it. As bad as he is, Harris would be even lamer.

* Among other things, if Russia were to take out some of Ukraine's tech, (cut Internet, etc.), there would be a variety of cascade consequences in the West and the U.S. It likely wouldn't be overly extreme, but there would be some issues. There's a fair amount of U.S. tech that is developed by, and sometimes maintained by, Ukraine based folks. Like a lot of Eastern Europe, (and for that matter, several enclaves in South America, Vietnam, and more), we offshore a fair amount of tech to those regions. I know that it's popular to think of India for this as most typical folks' exposure to such things is via such offshore customer service, often in India.

So... just as we've had weird supply line breaks happening when some odd little part from wherever can't make it to where it needs to go, SOMEthing(s) here would break or get delayed if we got cut off here.

* I'm sure there's a million other little micro impacts that would bubble through. But that's the one I'm most familiar with. I've been to the place several times. There's some really great people there. They emerged from Soviet rule decades ago and are only just starting to find their feet a bit. More modern stores/supermarkets, drastic reduction in corruption, (though still plenty to go around), modernization and building everywhere.

Russia can surely take it. But it's going to be a bloody mess.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #544 ·
* I think if Russia is going to actually start moving, it's going to wait until after the Olympics. They also may be closely studying Biden to see if they think he might be out of it. As bad as he is, Harris would be even lamer.
Schedule is dictated by the season. Russia must finish the invasion before the ground thaws. The Winter Olympics is nothing to anyone at this point. They've even turned into an embarrassment for the CCP with countries pulling support and participation. If anything it's useful just to make people drop their guard by saying stuff like this.
 

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* I think if Russia is going to actually start moving, it's going to wait until after the Olympics. They also may be closely studying Biden to see if they think he might be out of it. As bad as he is, Harris would be even lamer.

* Among other things, if Russia were to take out some of Ukraine's tech, (cut Internet, etc.), there would be a variety of cascade consequences in the West and the U.S. It likely wouldn't be overly extreme, but there would be some issues. There's a fair amount of U.S. tech that is developed by, and sometimes maintained by, Ukraine based folks. Like a lot of Eastern Europe, (and for that matter, several enclaves in South America, Vietnam, and more), we offshore a fair amount of tech to those regions. I know that it's popular to think of India for this as most typical folks' exposure to such things is via such offshore customer service, often in India.

So... just as we've had weird supply line breaks happening when some odd little part from wherever can't make it to where it needs to go, SOMEthing(s) here would break or get delayed if we got cut off here.

* I'm sure there's a million other little micro impacts that would bubble through. But that's the one I'm most familiar with. I've been to the place several times. There's some really great people there. They emerged from Soviet rule decades ago and are only just starting to find their feet a bit. More modern stores/supermarkets, drastic reduction in corruption, (though still plenty to go around), modernization and building everywhere.

Russia can surely take it. But it's going to be a bloody mess.
I predict Russia goes for Ukraine within 2 weeks +/- of the Opening ceremonies (Feb 4th) so any day now. Putin Loves the Olympics as cover (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014) and if Russia steps, China is into Taiwan within 2 weeks +/- of the Closing ceremonies (Feb 20th) particularly if US does nothing (which it will). No worries of a boycott and if all goes well for the Games a little bit of international good will/cred has been created (one step forward two steps back as it were).
 
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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #548 ·
Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) just came out screaming threats like a madman against pretty much everyone. Threatening Sweden and Finland now as well as Ukraine and talking about how they're done being restrained and it's go time.

Threatening all of NATO at this point including all the individual members if they don't back out of the alliance.

Ukraine's government internet servers under cyber attack.
 

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I have full faith and confidence in our establishment politicians and our 🌈 flag officers in all things thereunto pertaining to have already planned the loss of the next war before it even begins. Furthermore these treasonous District of corruption CCP 🐓 tooter's also plan to continue line their pockets soaked in the blood of the son's and daughters of America's working poor and middle class.
 

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So yesterday I just happened to randomly post about some thoughts on this topic. One of them had to do with Russia taking down some Ukraine cyber. Apparently, last night, there was a cyberattack on some Ukraine government sites that took them down for a bit.

Why? Seems kind of obvious this was just kind of a "hey, heads up... we're here. And we can just walk in to this any time we want." As well as likely some probing. Clearly, they think that even with this nudge, any defenses put up won't be that big a deal either.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go to the big box store to get more toilet paper. I think we're going to have another go at some more serious supply issues soon. And maybe some gummy bears. Don't want to run out of those. More seriously, I'm of course concerned about friends there. But... at this point the crap show will just be what it is and we'll see where we come out. Worst case, they're under Putin's rule. But it's not like this is some ethnic cleansing thing.
 

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FWIW. Bluffing, or no?


If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”
 

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FWIW. Bluffing, or no?


If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”
And then have them toss us out of the country later.
 

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my gut says the biden admin is using this whole thing to try to move the media focus, like when they murdered that aid worker during the afghanistan pullout.

i know one thing for dang sure. no politician better think for a second they are sending me or my kids to fight for them overseas. not after what they pulled.
 

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Looks like this is fixing to go hot. I visited my LGS today and snagged some more ammo while I still can. Never can be to careful. Plan to visit the sam's club and top off my gas cans over the weekend. The ruskies are itching for a fight but I don't see obiden doing much about it.
 

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my gut says the biden admin is using this whole thing to try to move the media focus, like when they murdered that aid worker during the afghanistan pullout.
The past two weeks have been a disaster for Dopey Joe. Now he's out there telling businesses they should ignore the SCOTUS ruling. I guess he's like the traditional captain; rather than admit defeat and move on, he's bound and determined he's going down with the ship.

Even though the media has his poll numbers in the low 30s, the fact of the matter is, as I have posted numerous times, those who ask the questions control the outcome; the pollsters are working hard to keep his numbers above 30. I would wager his true numbers are in the mid 20s. He's absolutely horrible at this. So ANY distraction off of him is welcome.
 
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The past two weeks have been a disaster for Dopey Joe. Now he's out there telling businesses they should ignore the SCOTUS ruling. I guess he's like the traditional captain; rather than admit defeat and move on, he's bound and determined he's going down with the ship.

Even though the media has his poll numbers in the low 30s, the fact of the matter is, as I have posted numerous times, those who ask the questions control the outcome; the pollsters are working hard to keep his numbers above 30. I would wager his true numbers are in the mid 20s. He's absolutely horrible at this. So ANY distraction off of him is welcome.
Biden's media minions are trying to keep his poll numbers above the inflation rate. Given the trajectory of both it's getting harder each day.
 
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