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Criminitly!
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765 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
What is the future for silver, are we going to scream past $30 or do you think we will fall back to floor of $14 in the next few weeks? Do you think the Europeans are getting smarter and plowing everything they have left in gold and silver? I know silver eagles have been bought up fast as the can mint them. I really don’t see big move in market volume for stocks right now. I think the only stock most Americans own now is mostly tied up on 401K’s. I know a steady flow goes in but not near what used to be because we have been wiped out three times now. (Tech bubble, 2001 terror attack, 2008 banker attack). Anyway I was just looking for thoughts, analysis, and discussion.
 

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Spooky
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1,698 Posts
Slightly off-topic but here's a gold post from today.
Panic Buying Of Physical Gold In Europe Threatens Depletion Of Austrian Mint

I've attached a daily chart of silver spot. The important thing to note is that price always retraces after an advance. It's clearly in an uptrend, so wait for the next dip. I'm looking to add to my silver collection at around $18.

I think $40 is entirely possible as people panic and start *really* buying precious metals. If you apply a measured move (measuring from the recent low of around $14.80 to the recent high of $19.80) gives a target of about $25.

Post-SHTF, I think silver will become the normal currency rather than gold.
 

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Stack It Deep.
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649 Posts
Is it really "panic" buying if the threat is real?
Yes, unless the threat is realized, then it's no longer panic buying. It's a response.

I can buy gas today to fill my tank, but it's 3/4 full, so I don't. I can buy gas tomorrow to fill my tank, but then it's 1/2 full. I can buy gas the next day to fill my tank, but it's still got 1/4 tank. I can buy gas the day after that to fill my tank, when I'm running on fumes. Or I can get towed to the station and fill up after I run the tank dry. All but the last instance are panic buying. The last is a response to a threat realized. Inevitability is the constant.
 

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Vote 3rd party!
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900 Posts
Stevegee,

That's great question and I've been going over that myself. With the rout in the EU, I can see this skyrocketing. The thing holding me back at this price is that central banks do not want silver/gold this high - can/will they do something about it????
 

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Prepared
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15,924 Posts
No, then it's too late.

I think the bigger question is what the value of PM's will be during TSHTF. Afterwards, I'd expect them to bounce back to a similar value (good/portable preservation of wealth). During TSHTF they'll clearly be a barterable commodity. But what will a Silver Eagle, Canadian Leaf, Britannia, etc. actually buy? One meal, a half-tank of gas, etc. In other words, will be they be more -- or perhaps less -- valuable during TSHTF? And what would be a good reason to part with them?

Yes, unless the threat is realized, then it's no longer panic buying. It's a response.

I can buy gas today to fill my tank, but it's 3/4 full, so I don't. I can buy gas tomorrow to fill my tank, but then it's 1/2 full. I can buy gas the next day to fill my tank, but it's still got 1/4 tank. I can buy gas the day after that to fill my tank, when I'm running on fumes. Or I can get towed to the station and fill up after I run the tank dry. All but the last instance are panic buying. The last is a response to a threat realized. Inevitability is the constant.
 

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Stack It Deep.
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649 Posts
No, then it's too late.

I think the bigger question is what the value of PM's will be during TSHTF. Afterwards, I'd expect them to bounce back to a similar value (good/portable preservation of wealth). During TSHTF they'll clearly be a barterable commodity. But what will a Silver Eagle, Canadian Leaf, Britannia, etc. actually buy? One meal, a half-tank of gas, etc. In other words, will be they be more -- or perhaps less -- valuable during TSHTF? And what would be a good reason to part with them?
I buy metals as a hedge against the dollar, not as a trading currency. I plan on cashing them in AFTER the SHTF, not during.
 

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Spooky
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1,698 Posts
No, then it's too late.

I think the bigger question is what the value of PM's will be during TSHTF. Afterwards, I'd expect them to bounce back to a similar value (good/portable preservation of wealth). During TSHTF they'll clearly be a barterable commodity. But what will a Silver Eagle, Canadian Leaf, Britannia, etc. actually buy? One meal, a half-tank of gas, etc. In other words, will be they be more -- or perhaps less -- valuable during TSHTF? And what would be a good reason to part with them?
Those are good questions. How much will things cost in ounces of silver post-SHTF? Will it be however much it costs now (in dollars) converted to silver weight at today's conversion rate? I don't think so.

If TSHTF, the survivors will get front row seats to a live demonstration of "auction market theory" and "price discovery" processes. REAL economics in action.
 

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Criminitly!
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765 Posts
Discussion Starter · #12 ·
It is interesting to see the big banks in Europe losing ground even though they just had a trillion dollars infused in them. I do think the Euro is doomed and I myself don't see silver falling to the floor anymore. I don't think it's panic, I think it's people doing what they do best....adapting and surviving...even if it's just financially. I also think if the pound falls, the dollars days will be numbered. I think gold will hit a ceiling soon, they can only take is as far as people can afford to buy it……silver is cheap in comparison therefore and I think the ceiling is much higher. I think when gold hits 1500 later this summer, silver will begin to pick up fast.
 

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Prepared
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15,924 Posts
No, I think fcb hit the answer on the head. PM's are to be converted back to other assets at stable times, not unstable times.

Their chief value during TSHTF is as portable/small/defendable stores of wealth to be re-converted when things stabilize (time), hidden or taken with you to greener pastures (space).

You can't say the same thing about a lot of other commodities. They're either large, heavy, immobile, consumable, not easily defended or hidden, etc. The time to exchange anything is when you can get top value for them, in the exchange. If you're imagining a point when PM's will suddenly be worth very little, I hope I'm there -- with cash in-hand. I'll gladly buy everyone's worthless shiny stuff.

Those are good questions. How much will things cost in ounces of silver post-SHTF? Will it be however much it costs now (in dollars) converted to silver weight at today's conversion rate? I don't think so.

If TSHTF, the survivors will get front row seats to a live demonstration of "auction market theory" and "price discovery" processes. REAL economics in action.
 

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Prepared
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15,924 Posts
Look at what happened to ammo the past few years.
Interesting comparison, many similarities, and yet some differences also. Are there shortages of brass, sulfur or gunpowder responsible for driving up the price -- or are manufacturers driving it up, taking advantage of people's willingness to pay more?

Think of it from the producer's side of things. The ammo manufacturers exchange ammo for fiat currency.

The silver/gold suppliers convert PM's into fiat currency also. What would possess them to sell if they thought PM's were the best hedge against inflation around? What are they investing their fiat currency into that's better than PM's?
 

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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒ&
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8,248 Posts
The silver/gold suppliers convert PM's into fiat currency also. What would possess them to sell if they thought PM's were the best hedge against inflation around? What are they investing their fiat currency into that's better than PM's?
Because that is the medium of exchange in modern markets. Cash is liquid. Gold and Silver are not. They must be exhanged for cash in order to conduct trade.
 

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Prepared
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15,924 Posts
That's my point -- if the suppliers themselves thought that PM's were a godsend, why would they trade even an ounce of it? It would stand to reason that the world's billionaires would have long since attempted to gobble it up for themselves, corner the market (as they have in real estate, energy, insurance, Big Pharm, etc.).

Or that the suppliers themselves would sell only enough to pay their miners, mint workers, etc. -- and hoard the rest.

Would be interesting to speculate what would happen at the supply-side if the economy tanked. Mines open full-bore? Or would they close up? Only thing I can think of is that they're selling gold to buy and sell more gold. That is, like anything else they sell for higher than their own mining/shipping/minting costs. So long as that relationship holds true, they'll continue selling.

Because that is the medium of exchange in modern markets. Cash is liquid. Gold and Silver are not. They must be exhanged for cash in order to conduct trade.
 

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Compulsive Hoarder
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50 Posts
Most/all Precious Metals resellers sell their PMs at spot cost PLUS a commission.
They make money (or even more PM) via the commission markup on the sale.
Similarly, they only buy PMs at spot MINUS their commission.
(Making even more money for increasing their own hoard of PMs).
 
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