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Massive civil unrest before the election?
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We face the possibility of massive civil unrest before the election . . . too much to be controlled . . . prepare to get out of the way"
"We may soon be hearing the declaration of emergency measures involving the allocation of food and rationing of oil"
Washington Post: 1929 all over again- "What's frightening is not any one event but the prospect that things are slipping out of control"
London Times: Worst-Case Scenario Now Rapidly Approaching
Washington Post: "Financial system may have hit tipping point, cascade into a full blown meltdown . . . business failures and banking emergencies"
US News & World Report: White House, Federal Reserve at DEFCON ONE
Darkness descends upon America
Civil unrest before the election -- if serious enough -- might give Bush the
pretext for CoG which means continuity of government and the suspension
of virtually every right we thought we had. Simple mathematics argues
against this likelihood however. There are nowhere near enough troops
inside the country to impose martial law. The military is stretched beyond
belief and the combat veterans are worn out from multiple deployments
and Stop Gap. The soldiers and Marines are not in a good mood. They want
to go home to take care of their families. Martial law won't fly; not with
270 million firearms in private hands. Hell, probably two thirds of all law
enforcement personnel in the country have just seen their pensions cut in
half or worse. I think about the martial law possibility about the same way
that I have always viewed the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Iran. It isn't
going to happen. And just as with a U.S. attack on Iran, the consequences
could possibly be world-ending. So if civil unrest really does occur, then
stand back and get out of the way because it might not be controllable . . .
"We may soon be hearing the declaration of emergency measures involving the allocation of food and rationing of oil"
What happens here and now? To this points,events have been proceeding
under a veneer of still-just-barely-credible authority. We (as represented
by congress) have allowed Mr. Paulson to advance and activate his
remedies. As things unspool further, he will be out of credibility, perhaps in
a few days, and it's unlikely that his successor will have any either. Mr.
Bernanke has simply gone AWOL. Notice, he has vanished from the media
andscape. We may soon be hearing the declaration of various "emergency"
measures involving the allocation of food and the rationing of oil products
Washington Post: 1929 all over again- "What's frightening is not any one event but the prospect that things are slipping out of control"
Watching the slipping economy and Congress's epic debate over the
unprecedented $700 billion financial bailout, it is impossible not to wonder
whether this is 1929 all over again. Even sophisticated observers invoke the
comparison. Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the
Financial Times, began a recent column: "It is just over three score years
and ten since the [end of the] Great Depression." What's frightening is not
any one event but the prospect that things are slipping out of control . . .
London Times: Worst-Case Scenario Now Rapidly Approaching
The credit crisis, which has been building slowly for the past year, is now
moving so fast that governments around the world are finding it impossible
to keep pace. On Saturday Angela Merkel, the German leader, criticised
last week’s decision by the Irish to guarantee all deposits in their leading
banks without consulting other European countries. The Irish Government
said that the move was forced on it by the threat of a run on one of its
banks. Only a day later Ms Merkel was forced to take almost the same
action in almost the same circumstances. In the longer term, this clearly
raises questions about the hopes for European financial integration. In the
short term, it presents serious challenges for European governments.
Washington Post: "Financial system may have hit tipping point, cascade into a full blown meltdown . . . business failures and banking emergencies"
"People are realizing that the Paulson plan is not going to be nearly enough.
It's not because the plan is ill-conceived. It looks like it's the right thing to
do, but the problem is just growing astronomically," said Martin Evans, a
professor of finance and economics at Georgetown University. The bailout
plan is focused on buttressing U.S. financial institutions. But it was global
markets that plunged yesterday, as investors sold off commodities in
Brazil, currency in Mexico, bank stocks in Russia and the short-term debt of
the state of California. Robert B. Zoellick, president of the World Bank, said
the global financial system may have reached a "tipping point" -- the
moment when a crisis cascades into a full-blown meltdown and becomes
extremely difficult for governments to contain. The mushrooming problems
"will trigger business failures and possibly banking emergencies. Some
countries will slip toward balance-of-payment crises," he said yesterday . . .
US News & World Report: White House, Federal Reserve at DEFCON ONE
This, the shaky American economy did not need. If an imploding housing
bubble and energy price superspike weren't damaging enough, our ailing
financial system decided to slide into full cardiac arrest. And while the
White House, Congress, and Federal Reserve have all shifted to DEFCON 1
to try to deal with the exploding credit crisis, even the perfect mix of fiscal
and monetary policies seems unlikely to now prevent the worst recession
in a generation. As JPMorgan Chase summed things up in a note to its
clients: "The fat lady sings." The whole financial fiasco has moved far
beyond liquidity problems on Wall Street. "This is the big one — the biggest
financial crisis since the Great Depression," says financial historian Niall
Ferguson. "It is, in fact, unlikely that even $700 billion will suffice to contain
this great credit crunch we're witnessing." Rather than being contained,
the credit crisis has gone viral. Some of America's biggest companies, such
as Caterpillar, McDonald's, GE, are having trouble accessing credit markets.
Darkness descends upon America
The Paulson bailout saves his firm, Goldman Sachs. The Paulson bailout
transfers the troubled financial instruments that the financial sector
created from the books of the financial sector to the books of the
taxpayers at the US Treasury. This is all the bailout does. It rescues the
guilty. The Paulson bailout does not address the problem, which is the
defaulting home mortgages. The defaults will continue, because the
economy is sinking into recession. Homeowners are losing their jobs, and
homeowners are being hit with rising mortgage payments resulting from
adjustable rate mortgages and escalator interest rate clauses in their
mortgages that make homeowners unable to service their debt. Shifting
the troubled assets from the financial sectors’ books to the taxpayers’
books absolves the people who caused the problem from responsibility.
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