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Lux in Tenebris
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This is not good:

"In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force."



"Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg, was put under Soviet control in 1945 according to the terms of the Potsdam Agreement, which was backed by the United States and Great Britain. The Russian people paid blood for this land in 1945 and are not going to relinquish it in the face of bullying or threats from the west. If you are going to poke a angry bear with a stick, you better be damn sure that bear is locked up and can’t get you. Russia sure as hell is not secure in a cage."

\\NNNN
 

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From the article
QUOTE

What is the difference between a special military operation and war? In the SMO you leave communications, electrical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and fuel depots largely intact. In the SMO you try to minimized civilian and military casualties.

UNQUOTE

I guess that's not an SMO in Ukraine, then.
 

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This is not good:

"In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force."


"Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg, was put under Soviet control in 1945 according to the terms of the Potsdam Agreement, which was backed by the United States and Great Britain. The Russian people paid blood for this land in 1945 and are not going to relinquish it in the face of bullying or threats from the west. If you are going to poke a angry bear with a stick, you better be damn sure that bear is locked up and can’t get you. Russia sure as hell is not secure in a cage."

\\NNNN
Lithuania has ever right to control it's borders, to dictate who may enter or cross it's land mass.
Belarus and Russia are political allies allowing Russia access to Kaliningrad.
 

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Lithuania has ever right to control it's borders, to dictate who may enter or cross it's land mass.
Belarus and Russia are political allies allowing Russia access to Kaliningrad.
There was a comedy film way back called "The mouse that roared".
Lithuania is today's mouse.

The reality is Russia doesn't give a flying /k about borders or the rights of anyone.
Having said that, Lithuania is a member of NATO.
However, NATO seem to be scared stiff of engaging with Russia.
Russia can smell fear and interpret that as a weakness.
In current events, the lack of NATO doing anything has embolden them and I fear nothing good will come out of this.
 

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There was a comedy film way back called "The mouse that roared".
Lithuania is today's mouse.

The reality is Russia doesn't give a flying /k about borders or the rights of anyone.
Having said that, Lithuania is a member of NATO.
However, NATO seem to be scared stiff of engaging with Russia.
Russia can smell fear and interpret that as a weakness.
In current events, the lack of NATO doing anything has embolden them and I fear nothing good will come out of this.
Your right I can see no way this will be a good thing.
Not to defend Russia, they are a loose cannon on the deck.
However, NATO's mandate, rules prohibit NATO's intervention in any situation involving a non-NATO member.
 

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This is not good:

"In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force."



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Eh, no.

They are just enforcing the EU rules on sanctioned goods in rail trans-shipments. Last time I looked food / medicine etc was not on sanctions list.

Military cargo to Kaliningrad has been mostly sent by sea / air since long before this year. After 2014 Russia moved to sea shipping for most heavy cargo. Air lifted the lighter stuff. The Russians moved one of their floating natural gas terminals to the Kaliningrad port in January in prep for the invasion of Ukraine. Although they pulled out a lot of the garrison out in February to invade Ukraine the heavy equipment (and the Iskander batteries) are still there.

This is not the equivalent of Berlin in 1948/49 or 1961.

As one of the Polish politicians pointed out recently as the Russian government has broken both the spirit and the letter of relevant Potsdam / Post Potsdam agreements regarding Kaliningrad. So maybe time to revisit the subject and for Konigsberg to join Danzig, Stettin, Breslau etc in modern Poland. For a start the Poles would do a far better job of reviving the city back to what it was before the war, a very beautiful city. Kaliningrad is a typical grim Soviet Era city now. A wasteland. Compare with Gdanzk, Szczecin or Wrocław where most of the cities were flatten in WW2 and were rebuilt and restored in a sympathetic historical style.

A good friends mother was studying at the university in Konigsberg in spring 1944 when she decided it was best to start heading west. Walked most of the way from East Prussia to Munich by spring 1945. As she was a Baltic German from Memel she had the right papers. So I have heard first hand what just a beautiful city Konigsberg once was. And might be again one day. But not as long as the Russians occupy it. Because thats all it is, a military occupation.
 

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Eh, no.

They are just enforcing the EU rules on sanctioned goods in rail trans-shipments. Last time I looked food / medicine etc was not on sanctions list.

Military cargo to Kaliningrad has been mostly sent by sea / air since long before this year. After 2014 Russia moved to sea shipping for most heavy cargo. Air lifted the lighter stuff. The Russians moved one of their floating natural gas terminals to the Kaliningrad port in January in prep for the invasion of Ukraine. Although they pulled out a lot of the garrison out in February to invade Ukraine the heavy equipment (and the Iskander batteries) are still there.

This is not the equivalent of Berlin in 1948/49 or 1961.

As one of the Polish politicians pointed out recently as the Russian government has broken both the spirit and the letter of relevant Potsdam / Post Potsdam agreements regarding Kaliningrad. So maybe time to revisit the subject and for Konigsberg to join Danzig, Stettin, Breslau etc in modern Poland. For a start the Poles would do a far better job of reviving the city back to what it was before the war, a very beautiful city. Kaliningrad is a typical grim Soviet Era city now. A wasteland. Compare with Gdanzk, Szczecin or Wrocław where most of the cities were flatten in WW2 and were rebuilt and restored in a sympathetic historical style.

A good friends mother was studying at the university in Konigsberg in spring 1944 when she decided it was best to start heading west. Walked most of the way from East Prussia to Munich by spring 1945. As she was a Baltic German from Memel she had the right papers. So I have heard first hand what just a beautiful city Konigsberg once was. And might be again one day. But not as long as the Russians occupy it. Because thats all it is, a military occupation.
Since you mentioned handing territory to Poland...I'm for it but have them earn it.. instead of turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan, I would rather throw money and resources at Poland and tell them they can keep all the territory they take. I would tell Germany the same thing. A strong Poland and Germany is the best long term security solution for Europe. You really want to put your trust in an administration that dropped the ball on Afghanistan, thought inflation was just transitory and unlike the rest of us common folk who didn't have the benefit of an intelligence gathering apparatus, had no clue Russia would invade Ukraine? If you average out what we have sent Ukraine so far its what, 15-20 billion a month? And they are losing ground.. I would even give Germany and Poland even more if need be. Heck we just print it as we need it these days anyway.
Sanctions are not a strategy for victory as the entire world is starting to find out. They are the political equivalent of ROE that keeps us from winning on the battlefield.
Handing Ukraine just enough help to barely hang on and raising oil,gas and grain prices from "sanctions "so that Russia makes more money than they would have otherwise (commodities are most of their GDP) and helping create a competing and alternate economic bloc of countries led by China,India, Russia and Brazil is just cruel and unusual punishment to the entire planet.
 

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Since you mentioned handing territory to Poland...I'm for it but have them earn it..
Its Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics and the UK that are doing all the heavy lifting in Ukraine since January. Despite what the US media might show. The US is just writing checks, providing logistics, and intel. Thats pretty much it. This is shown in the domestic Russian TV propaganda. They make fun of Biden and the US. You should see the unedited footage they show on Russian TV of Biden stumbling about. No need for deceptive edits. He is seriously senile. But Russian TV propaganda has an unrelenting visceral hatred for Poland, UK, etc. Thats their real enemy.

From what I am hearing currently the US military is in pretty much the same state as it was just after Vietnam in the mid 1970. Totally dispirited and pretty much gutted. And this is very well known in Europe. German military effectiveness has collapsed, on par with Belgium by this stage. Destroyed by the same German politicians who have been completely bought or comprised by Putin and the Russian oligarchs. Starting with Merkel. Plus Scholz, Steinmeier etc. The story is that Putin has serious kompromat on Scholz involving several huge financial scandals including Wirecard. If you were wondering about the bizarre zig zag behavior of the German government the last few months.

What happens next? Who knows. The Russian coverage of the war has got less and less the last few weeks. Covering smaller and smaller fronts. The daily progress maps on Russian TV tell it all. Little progress at huge cost. Unlike 2014 Russian will not be able to stop when it wants and claim "victory" with the status quo. Even though the Germans are trying their damnedest at the moment to make this happen. Macrons actions are all about helping prop up the Germans.

Outcome? Dont be too surprised if we are back to the beginning of April 2014 borders sooner rather than later. Russian control of the Ukrainian oblasts / raions (counties) occupied since February is very weak or non existent. And local support for the Russian puppet regimes in DPR / LPR looks like it has pretty much collapsed the last few months. Press-ganging old men to send off to a battle-field with obsolete 50 or even 70 year old equipment will do that.
 
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