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Comic, not your lawyer!
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I'm helping friends who were delinquent in buying guns/ammo/accessories try to put together some gear. Helping them find items is frightening. Entire companies are empty of anything or mostly empty. Prices are quite high as we all know. This is on mostly speculation and fear. I think once they start passing bans and restrictions prices will soar ... so the worse is YET to come I fear.

We all know it's going to be bad under the likely Biden/Harris admin. I'm trying to weigh how bad it is right now with shortages versus in recent history.

I got into guns during the Clinton AWB. My first AR was a neutered Bushmaster with 10 round mag, for $1000 ($1500 in 2021 money). Currently you can buy a lot more AR today than my $1000 bought me at that time. So today isn't as bad as during the ACTUAL AWB blight.

I've lived thru the 3 Obama spikes (post election 2008-2010; re-election 2012-2013; Sandy Hook 2014-2015) and the pre-2016 Hillary election spike.

The Obama spikes were big and bad. I paid $150 each for several stripped AR lowers. I recall high prices and low inventory on other items during this first two spikes. Post Sandy-Hook he was outwardly talking about gun bans, and that cleaned out stores of all inventory on anything tactical and magazines going up x10 in price.
So by contrast, we aren't quite that bad but we do have shortages of most things.

Pre-2016 election, I remember watching a lot of YT videos and reading about massive shortages. My local gun store was mostly cleaned out, as were many nationwide. I don't recall big price spikes though.

How would YOU compare what is happening today versus other spikes in demand in recent history?
 

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Magazines have not been touched for price hike. Maybe 2-5 dollars increase per mag which is minimal overall.

22lr ammo seems to of blown up for cost even compare to previous panics. Over 20 cents around seems normal. Tonight the cheapest on ammoseek was 30 cents.

I also don't remember slugs and buckshot costing so much the last two panics. I know that mossberg 500s and remington 870s did not double in price. This really caught me by surprise.

Body armor seems to be still a good price.
 

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Firearms and mags are available and not terribly priced but ammo is somewhere I have never seen. Even hunting calibers are hard to find now. Common self defense calibers you might as well forget about unless you can pay the high prices online. I was in seven gun stores today and saw zero 9mm, zero 45ACP, zero 38/357, zero 308, zero 762x39, and only one place had a little 556. These are all places with quantity purchase limits. By comparison I was tripping over bins of reasonably priced PMags!
 

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This time is different in maybe a better way. There's a lot more first time buyers. This isn't just hoarding. So, in the past, manufacturers likely didn't create new capacity that much because they didn't want to get stuck with a whole extra factory once things calmed down. But now? There's 100s of thousands, (millions?), more owners that will need ammo for practice shooting, etc. So once this blows over, (and it will, things almost always do), we may find that some manufacturers actually do build out more capacity. We'll see. But in any case, that's going to take more time than just a temporary surge of inventory outage.
 

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I can still get pretty much any handgun and sporting long gun I want for a fair price. AR type rifles are what are scarce. Or at least the nice ones. AR mags are super plentiful and no price spikes, which was definitely not the case in 2012. Compared to the past, ammo and especially reloading components are the worst I've ever seen.
 

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I was on a website looking at some 762x39 in golden tiger about a week or so ago.

Upon closer inspection it was factory remanufactured ammo and indicated the primers were corrosive. Apparently the shortage of primers in Russia caused the company to look at some of their older manufactured ammo in storage, demill it for components and use the corrosive primers in modern golden tiger ammo.

I have never heard of that before with ammo at the manufacturing level.

That is what tells me this is different, along with various other readings of the tea leaves.

As discussed in other threads, my outlook is 2 years minimum pending Biden’s actual initiatives the next 2 months.

My baptism was by fire during the first AWB so I don’t really recall the price of ammo before the ban, but I would gladly welcome AWB1 ammo prices compared to what looms on Biden’s horizon.

My history...

I grew up shooting guns and I would describe my dad as a gun guy, but he wasn’t a gun nut...I’m a gun nut, but it was a process to get there, I used to think there were many gun “wells” Infinitely full.

I don’t think he ever kept more than 100 rounds on hand at any given time and never owned more than 4 or 5 weapons over his lifetime. I visited him over the weekend and he gave me exactly 4 .38 special rounds and one M1 carbine round he found. He doesn’t own any firearm for these anymore, but figured I might be able to use them since he knows I have some that do. I graciously accepted them without question, he has no idea what or how much I own. He has never asked and it’s never come up.

My belief system when it came to firearms growing up was that if I needed more ammo, I’d just go buy some.

The mistake is thinking $350 WASRs will always be $350...I remember how pissed people were when they jumped to $450 and then $500

The mistake was thinking SKSs were always going to be $125 and I couldn’t understand why anyone would pay $250 for one.

When I was around 16 or 17 yrs old I shot a K98 Mauser for the first time and I vaguely remember the guy we knew saying he didn’t pay more than $2-300 for one at that time. I couldn’t wait to save up for one of my own when I was old enough to buy one....which I never did. Then one day I was at a gun show and got hit with sticker shock....$900

I wish I was savvy enough to buy ammo in large quantities during AWB1 along with all those demilled AK kits and surplus rifles from garands to SKSs.....those wells have run dry.

One should always buy within their means, but who knows....maybe 30 years from now THESE will be the golden years for firearms.
 

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Live Secret, Live Happy
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I owned a few hunting rifles, and revolvers before the first assault weapon ban was passed in California in 1989. By 1992 I was studing gunsmithing at LCC, Susanville, Ca, and watched for the next four yrs, while my state became a gulag. It got so bad that I terminated my gunsmithing education, without obtaining my FFL.

The Dems who just got elected, are the same pieces of crap that turned California into a gulag. Today's shortages are not the end of this. This is only the beginning. This is going to spin out of control, and we will be lucky to live through it.
 

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I squirrelled away a lot but not at the golden milsurp days. I also understand commodity pricing and have been able to flip and trade up. Somebody out there always needs cash. So you can snipe, hold, flip later. The people that do it a day or week after the original listing aren't thinking.

But if you buy high and sell higher, that's still buy low/sell high.

I'm holding more now rather than flipping, because I feel this is the bottom. That's a scary thought.

I also fix things, so if it's broken, I'll be more likely to buy it since the price is normally better and most fixes basic.
 

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Beware of the dog!
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In the southwest, when the panic buying started in 08 prior to the election it did not let up for about 7 years. In 15 they were finally starting to get inventory back on the shelves but by 16 demand was picking up prior to the election but the shelves were not as empty as in prior years. In 17 the shelves were gaining inventory and by 19 prices seemed to be reasonable again with the steady supply of inventory.

About 6 months ago the demand hit again and the store shelves began thinning out. By September the shelves around here were about empty of ammunition, reloading supplies, and most firearms were about gone. The occasional box of way expensive target or big game ammo in a few obscure calibers were about all you could find.

There was a gun show this past weekend. They big distributor did have ammo so that was a good thing. My friend picked up 1000 rounds of 9mm and a 1000 rounds of .223 and had to pay a bit over $1200.00.

I am told that a box of 50 .380 FMJ was selling for $41.00 and a box of 50 .22lr was selling for $20.00.

What I believe will be the difference this time is the election fraud. If the voter fraud is not completely exposed, and the mail in ballots and the use of the Dominion voting machines continues, let alone the corrupt media, we will perpetually have a corrupt government and their agenda will forever be a problem.

Unless you don't believe in voter fraud, in which case supplies should be back to normal by summer.
 

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The only spike that really hit locally was the 2013 sandhook banic, that lasted a good four years. 2008 wasn't a problem locally.

Now its totally cleaned out again like it was 2013-2017

I expect it to last at least five years.

But I always considered guns and ammo to only be about 10% of the prepping equation. I've got all the 'killing' ammo I will ever need.

As for shooting for fun, I'm going back to making crossbows.


Unless you don't believe in voter fraud, in which case supplies should be back to normal by summer.
Why would that be? :unsure:

Wether you believe in fraud or not doesn't change who is president.
 

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Beware of the dog!
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As for shooting for fun, I'm going back to making crossbows.
This just peaked my interest. I can make my own crossbow? And arrows/darts?
Could you share a link of where I should start my research?
Thanks in advance.


Why would that be? :unsure:

Wether you believe in fraud or not doesn't change who is president.
I don't know why some people might think that way. I just didn't want them to feel excluded. But, in their minds I suspect they blame others for the shortage, I highly doubt they would think their presidential choice would cause any problems.
 

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Magazines have not been touched for price hike. Maybe 2-5 dollars increase per mag which is minimal overall.

22lr ammo seems to of blown up for cost even compare to previous panics. Over 20 cents around seems normal. Tonight the cheapest on ammoseek was 30 cents.

I also don't remember slugs and buckshot costing so much the last two panics. I know that mossberg 500s and remington 870s did not double in price. This really caught me by surprise.

Body armor seems to be still a good price.
Yeah, I had a .22 LR alert on Ammoseek for less than $.15 per round. Some came up at $.125 per round today, and I bought it. But yes, it's been .25 or .30. Crazy.

9 mm is up to .60 a round at the lowest.
 

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This just peaked my interest. I can make my own crossbow? And arrows/darts?
Could you share a link of where I should start my research?
Thanks in advance.
Sure. This is where you get the prods (the bow part of a crossbow) Alchem Incorporated: Crossbow And Crossbow Parts
They also have plans and parts etc.

For bolts (crossbow arrows) you have a lot more options. You can buy finished bolts from different places or make your own, all the components are available online from a variety of places.

You need to have some ability in wood working, metal working and fletching but these are all things you can do with fairly simple tools and skills.
 

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This is the worst I’ve seen firearm sales. I was looking for a wood stock 30:06 for a nephew. Checked a Academy and bass pro in three states, several local dealers before heading to a huge dealer in GA that had One, which I bought. Never in here could I find a Glock 21. SIGs seem to still show up on shelves. And I want another M&P-22

but mags are easy, holsters are dificult,
 

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I can echo this statement. Mags are essentially untouched and unchanged in price. Maybe everyone stocked up last time around my part of the country? ARs are either non existent or the very high end rifles like lwrc are lingering. I did see one sbr sig on the shelf but that’s understandable

I can still get pretty much any handgun and sporting long gun I want for a fair price. AR type rifles are what are scarce. Or at least the nice ones. AR mags are super plentiful and no price spikes, which was definitely not the case in 2012. Compared to the past, ammo and especially reloading components are the worst I've ever seen.
 

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In the last few years we had a burst of gun buyer like we had never seen before, I think even liberals were taking up arms. Manufacturing has never caught up to the demand.
Recently viewing my own reserves I neglected to stock up on several calibers, but be that is it may, it is what it is.
I have enough for a defensive posture but not for practice, which is why I had taken up air guns anyway. to save money on ammo. I thought I'd have more opportunities to fill my stocks. That is what putting off important stuff does for you.
 

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The Clinton AWB had a different vibe to it. People bought what was going to be banned. It also brought the last great cheap military surplus dump firearms. They didn’t ban as much as they made silly rules about parts and compliance.

The Obama threat caused peak AR, peak magazine, peak 22lr and peak ammo for common military rounds. You also had war production working against you. Manufactures were not prepared for the demand From the Sandy Hook rhetoric.

Trump had people at ease for three years and things slowed down due to peak Obama year purchases. You also had a lot of bankruptcies and mergers/purchases.

THEN COVID.

This time around it’s the TP fear mentality. It it goes bang buy it. The manufactures didn’t see COVID, riots and Biden coming. They were also running slower manufacturing schedules due to COVID. The worlds suppliers also faced this. This holds true for all accessories and parts as well.

Watch as Biden/Harris come into office and detail what they are claim they are going to do.. I’d be stocking magazines deep now while there is availability and prices are good. I’d also stock up on all things reloading that you need. Bolts and common wear items are also going to get hard to get. If you’re into the 80% thing I’d stock up where you can.

My guess is internet purchases on parts/supplies will be stopped by shippers like UPS, FEDX and USPS after the next riot and or mass shooting. This will start the next wave panic buying as .GOV labels me a terrorist....AGAIN.
 

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The only spike that really hit locally was the 2013 sandhook banic, that lasted a good four years. 2008 wasn't a problem locally.

Now its totally cleaned out again like it was 2013-2017

I expect it to last at least five years.

But I always considered guns and ammo to only be about 10% of the prepping equation. I've got all the 'killing' ammo I will ever need.

As for shooting for fun, I'm going back to making crossbows.




Why would that be? :unsure:

Wether you believe in fraud or not doesn't change who is president.
Not gonna lie, making your own crossbows is badass
 
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