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Purrpared
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So broke I don't have to worry about it personally, but it is a fairly good marker of when the economy is in a serious downward spiral. You can watch commodity futures, particularly grains and livestock, to get an idea of what those items will do to your budget down the road.

From the perspective of an old lady, the stock market goes up, the stock market goes down. Daily doesn't mean much; it's the broader trends that are important. To me, the most important aspect currently is what's happening with pension funds since that affects working people who are pretty much holding up the economy right now. Most people I know with retirement funds have them through an employer and the whole account is invested in mutual funds. Those are used to underpin just a whole lot of things. If your company offers one, check and see whether you can take a loan on it and imagine how many people have done so, and how many more are counting on that money to be there at retirement although it can be devalued in a heartbeat if the market drops. One of my family members saved her whole life to amass a fortune, then watched her account dwindle from over a million dollars to just over 600,000 in a matter of weeks. She never got over it and insisted until the day she died that someone stole her money; to her, that 401K was money she earned from her job and it should have kept increasing and been there for her retirement.

When those funds start going sideways at a great rate is a good time to expand your garden and reduce the balance in your bank account, IMHO. There are some disturbing trends right now in areas like health care, agriculture and precious metals that should be fairly stable but are bouncing around like Tigger on Mountain Dew. Not good.
 

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If your scared and trust your instincts put some of your money in UVXY and it will cover you if the market crashes! Back when the market did its little covid crash last year I made a killing on it!
 

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Premium Member
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120 Posts
FWIW, nervous isn't the word for it these days... been out of 70% of our portfolios for just over a year now. Waiting for the fall. We moved into gold, real estate, cash, etc. but kept all the longer term plays and moved 15% over into food & water stocks.

I've never been able to accurately time the market, and with all the cash (M1) that has been manufactured, the delays for the pending fall (tick, tick, tick) have been protracted to a greater extent than normal. Missed a number of massive opportunities such as Amazon, but don't really regret it due to the nature of the controlling management behind those businesses. (I exited AMZN at 1.5k thinking it could not go much higher, oops) Kept some of the promising ones such as ZM, IIPR and some credit card stocks to name a few.

Best wishes to those who are still in... my advice is to watch those markets like a hawk!

P.S. do not believe in Bitcoin, et al, but Blockchain has its merits. It's just not for me these days.
 

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Premium Member
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120 Posts
PS II - there are a great number of overvalued issues (no s#*t) - thus plenty of shorts / puts to consider, but that also takes 24/7 vigilance, and I am too busy with other pursuits to devote sufficient time...
 

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Markets are all based on group psychology, if you are in tune with group psychology and act as an autonomous individual you can do well in the market instead of getting bitter and thinking it's a "BS house of cards" controlled by a few elites. I'm a little guy, I've been trading options since 2011 and I've been involved in the market since the mid-90s. I called the .com bubble and took out 60% of my assets a week before the crash because I understood the group psychology. Also called the real estate sub-prime crisis and took out my 401k and paid the tax penalty and bought gold a year before the 2008 collapse...everyone I had worked with thought I was insane, I retired at 40, they still are working in their 50s. Have I made mistakes? Absolutely but I've made more good calls than bad...my point is, don't dismiss the market as a viable income/investment strategy. The little guy can do well. There are three things that mislead people about the stock market. 1. Markets are not rational they are based ONLY on greed, fashion and fear. 2. Markets are not quantitative they are qualitative perceptions of value thus quantitative analysis techniques taught in financial schools are of little to no value. 3. If people are talking about "the next big tech thing you should invest in" at the local coffee bar, it's far too late and that train has left the station if the general public knows about it. Real tech inventions are very secretive, if you're not familiar or in that business don't buy into it based on popular trends. Contrarian bets often pay bigger too.
I agree with all of this. I never said the market is not a viable and effective way to invest and grow money. The question was “does it make me nervous?” And my answer was “yes” for the reasons I stated.
 

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Social Deserter
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570 Posts
@Wydaho Nowadays with ETFs you can have similar characteristics without the effort. See HDCowboys’s comment. Just remember funds like that are not investments. They are either hedges or gambling depending on your asset mix.
 

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I think it is crazy that the marked recovered from last march. Not olnly fully recovered but setting new record highs every week all this year, while at the same time being told how bad things are for business right now. Record profits and record hardships at the same time make me question what is going on.

I personally think we will either see a stock market and housing market crash to bring things down to the level where they should be. Or we will see huge inflation to the point that the stock market and housing is about right again. The other option is the markets are detached from reality and nothing makes sense anymore. Which is kind of how things looked for a couple years before 2008.

I have so little invested that what I loose in stock markets will be inconsequential compared the widespread problems a market crash could cause.
 

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Premium Member
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@Wydaho Nowadays with ETFs you can have similar characteristics without the effort. See HDCowboys’s comment. Just remember funds like that are not investments. They are either hedges or gambling depending on your asset mix.
Appreciate that... thanks and what you've said is true. ETFs have merit for those who opt to place their funds in a range of stocks / holdings. IMHO, sucess in "investing" in the markets, any markets, is a skill that only time, and development of disciplines can deliver. Some people have a "gift" for doing it. I do not. I had to learn the hard way as disclosed - time and lessons learned produced disciplines that I adhere to this day. I've been in the markets since my early 20s. Day traded for years in the 90s, caught the dotcom phase, exited correctly, got clipped here and there along the way just as easy... I have come to understand that when you're really invested (meaning, dependent upon earning a living doing it) it is a full-time occupation. Otherwise, believe in the products and services you invest in, use them, and buy into the companies for the long haul.

When I see things like bitcoin mining (that whole thing is a house of cards IMO), fractional share ownership go ballistic, and get stock tips from Uber drivers, it's time for me to exit...

"Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered". - Joseph Sutter (I think)
 

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If your scared and trust your instincts put some of your money in UVXY and it will cover you if the market crashes! Back when the market did its little covid crash last year I made a killing on it!

The UVXY is based on the VIX, the most volatile instrument that is regularly traded. UVXY is 150% of the VIX. In early 2020 the VIX suddenly went from 14 to 77 causing lots of traders to go out of business and at least one large, billion dollar firm (Ronin Capital), to collapse. UVXY, at 1.5 times the VIX, is extremely risky and not suitable for most people.
 

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When I see things like bitcoin mining (that whole thing is a house of cards IMO), fractional share ownership go ballistic, and get stock tips from Uber drivers, it's time for me to exit...
Bit coin is not for me but.....
I know someone that has done very well with bitcoin mining. Built a computer specifically to efficiently do it $$.
When he was building it I was skeptical ......ran into him a while back and asked if he came out ok on it.
I was shocked how well it turned out for him.
 

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With no commission apps where you can buy $1 worth of stock... It is opened to a whole new demographic. Get ready for a wild ride. As a side note... I wonder when lots of young people and less wealthy people have some money invested, will feeling change? Will they finally realize killing businesses with taxes and regulations affects more than just millionaire stick holders?
 

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Social Deserter
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The UVXY is based on the VIX, the most volatile instrument that is regularly traded. UVXY is 150% of the VIX. In early 2020 the VIX suddenly went from 14 to 77 causing lots of traders to go out of business and at least one large, billion dollar firm (Ronin Capital), to collapse. UVXY, at 1.5 times the VIX, is extremely risky and not suitable for most people.
Agreed completely BUT with a small holdings (ie 2.5% of portfolio or so) it can provide the “market is about to bust” people that are honestly, just afraid of the market, an option of stability. It can allow to still participate in the gains of the market without the risk of complete loss.

Gambling on the VIX though will make nearly everyone go bust expect the few people that become hugely wealthy.
 

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Honyock
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699 Posts
The reason the market is so high is the trillions poured in by federal government. There is no place to put that much money except the market. Lots of money moving into the market makes prices go up, has nothing to do with actual values or profits.

Yes there is a bubble, yes it will bust, who knows when? And when it does watch inflation then.

Be Prepared !!!
 

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The UVXY is based on the VIX, the most volatile instrument that is regularly traded. UVXY is 150% of the VIX. In early 2020 the VIX suddenly went from 14 to 77 causing lots of traders to go out of business and at least one large, billion dollar firm (Ronin Capital), to collapse. UVXY, at 1.5 times the VIX, is extremely risky and not suitable for most people.
If you feel that's the case, you can invest in its opposite brother SVXY!
 

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I pulled out to stable fund mid November.

A big correction is coming. Fed can either raise interest which will trigger a drop, or let inflation run wild which will trigger a drop. It’s coming.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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Well you definitely locked in your losses, but if it helps you sleep better then by all means.

I‘ve always been somewhat fearful of investments that I have little control over…everyone is. It’s called risk. Stashing money under the mattress is safe but it won’t grow. Doubtful the stock market will go to zero, though a correction has been imminent for some time. Heck, if it dives lower you might have set yourself up well to buy back in at a discount!
Locked in his gains is more like it. Market Is above any closing prior to the last 2 months.
 

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Adventurer
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1,407 Posts
I have not a dollar in the stock market right now...... No worries here.

One of the biggest transfers of wealth in history this next time around is going to be in crypto currency IMO.
 

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Honyock
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[QUOTE="Klbsa, post: 21102903, member: 220601"

One of the biggest transfers of wealth in history this next time around is going to be in crypto currency IMO.
[/QUOTE]

Crypto is imaginary "money" even more so than the US Dollar, and that is saying something. Both are only numbers in a computer.
 
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