Survivalist Forum banner
1 - 20 of 47 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
147 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I've been nervous for a while about the stock market. I think stocks are overvalued, especially the tech stocks (which make up a huge portion of the S&P 500). Total market cap on Apple hit $3 trillion last week! Looked up the Shiller P/E ratio and as you can see, we're getting close to an all-time high...
Rectangle Slope Font Plot Parallel

After seeing this, and yesterday's drop, that was enough. So today, I dumped half my stock mutual fund holdings and put it in cash. With interest rates going up, hopefully I'll make at least some return on my money market investments. I know very well that in real terms, I'm losing money, but at least I'm not going to see it evaporate in a market crash. I'm in my 60s and have to be assured that there'll be something in my 401(k) when I retire.
 

·
Another Brick in the Wall
Joined
·
1,306 Posts
Just got my IRA statement and it gained over $2k last quarter. I've had minor setbacks in the eight years since I started it, but mostly it has grown nicely. However I suspect at some point it will drop back hard, and a crash may very well happen eventually. At least I can't lose the invested money, only gain or break even.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Depends
Joined
·
77 Posts
I am mostly cash I sold a rental property a few months back. Out of the $250K from the rental I have only invested $15K of the money. I have my fingers crossed for a pull back and a plan when it happens. My IRA was up 55 percent last year I have been slowly raising cash the past couple months.
So in the answer to your question no I am not nervous but hopeful for a correction.
NDR
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
483 Posts
After seeing this, and yesterday's drop, that was enough. So today, I dumped half my stock mutual fund holdings and put it in cash. With interest rates going up, hopefully I'll make at least some return on my money market investments. I know very well that in real terms, I'm losing money, but at least I'm not going to see it evaporate in a market crash.
Well you definitely locked in your losses, but if it helps you sleep better then by all means.

I‘ve always been somewhat fearful of investments that I have little control over…everyone is. It’s called risk. Stashing money under the mattress is safe but it won’t grow. Doubtful the stock market will go to zero, though a correction has been imminent for some time. Heck, if it dives lower you might have set yourself up well to buy back in at a discount!
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
413 Posts
I have always been scared of the market but after going through a few advisors finally found one that I like and trust. He has us doing very well. In 2008 (i think) when a lot of people lost 50% we lost less than 30%. I was ready to sell out then but he talked me off the ledge. We gained back all the losses rather quickly and so much more.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
147 Posts
Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Just got my IRA statement and it gained over $2k last quarter. I've had minor setbacks in the eight years since I started it, but mostly it has grown nicely. However I suspect at some point it will drop back hard, and a crash may very well happen eventually. At least I can't lose the invested money, only gain or break even.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
I’m guessing you’re a bit younger than me. If I was in my 30s or 40s, I would have left my money in the market. I weathered the Y2K tech bubble bursting and the 2008 meltdown, no problem. But I’m just a few years from retirement.
 

·
Another Brick in the Wall
Joined
·
1,306 Posts
I’m guessing you’re a bit younger than me. If I was in my 30s or 40s, I would have left my money in the market. I weathered the Y2K tech bubble bursting and the 2008 meltdown, no problem. But I’m just a few years from retirement.
Let's just say I'm not exactly brand new to being on Medicare. The money I invested in an IRA was free money. I didn't need any of the benefits from the government contractor job I had and they had to put the equivalent into a 401k. After I left I rolled it into an IRA.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
None of your business.
Joined
·
3,418 Posts
Those that lose the most sleep are those that have put all their eggs into one basket….I am a strong believer in divesting in various markets; stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, etc.

however I would say that I become more risk adverse the older I get.

If I could do things differently I would have taken investing more seriously in my 20’s vs chasing tail…chasing tail is expensive, and in many cases the ROI wasn’t worth it…lol…
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
261 Posts
I've been nervous for a while about the stock market. I think stocks are overvalued, especially the tech stocks (which make up a huge portion of the S&P 500). Total market cap on Apple hit $3 trillion last week! Looked up the Shiller P/E ratio and as you can see, we're getting close to an all-time high...
View attachment 408681
After seeing this, and yesterday's drop, that was enough. So today, I dumped half my stock mutual fund holdings and put it in cash. With interest rates going up, hopefully I'll make at least some return on my money market investments. I know very well that in real terms, I'm losing money, but at least I'm not going to see it evaporate in a market crash. I'm in my 60s and have to be assured that there'll be something in my 401(k) when I retire.
most big name stocks have been overvalued based on traditional metrics for a five years particularly AAPL and TSLA...technophiles can't get enough though. People have been crying "bubble" for a long time, but I never seem to be amazed how big a bubble can get before it pops.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
777 Posts
I’m not invested in the stock market. I’m always nervous about it however, because it’s a BS house of cards that will collapse when the people who control it decide it’s in their favor. Unfortunately, with it being such an integral part of our financial system, it will eff-up everything. That’s the part that concerns me. Not if, but when. And the when is way overdue.
 

·
Social Deserter
Joined
·
570 Posts
There is money to be made at the top and at the bottom.

A good hedge (put contracts or market short/vix funds) when things are high can give you comfort to stay in the market. You just have to be willing to give up a small portion of your future gains if the market stays hot. I’ve seen more people lose by thinking the market is “high” and missing out on really significant gains.

If markets gain 100%, you might only gain 80% when you have a big hedge.
If markets lose 50%, you might break even or even gain some
If markets lose 100%, you are now rich
And of course, if markets fail so bad that they no longer exist, you’ve got your preps!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,048 Posts
Jea,

No, not nervous.

Left a long time ago after making a decent return (to me a small fortune) on Gulf, Texas Gulf Sulphur and Texaco. Admittedly, liked dividends.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
261 Posts
I’m not invested in the stock market. I’m always nervous about it however, because it’s a BS house of cards that will collapse when the people who control it decide it’s in their favor. Unfortunately, with it being such an integral part of our financial system, it will eff-up everything. That’s the part that concerns me. Not if, but when. And the when is way overdue.
Markets are all based on group psychology, if you are in tune with group psychology and act as an autonomous individual you can do well in the market instead of getting bitter and thinking it's a "BS house of cards" controlled by a few elites. I'm a little guy, I've been trading options since 2011 and I've been involved in the market since the mid-90s. I called the .com bubble and took out 60% of my assets a week before the crash because I understood the group psychology. Also called the real estate sub-prime crisis and took out my 401k and paid the tax penalty and bought gold a year before the 2008 collapse...everyone I had worked with thought I was insane, I retired at 40, they still are working in their 50s. Have I made mistakes? Absolutely but I've made more good calls than bad...my point is, don't dismiss the market as a viable income/investment strategy. The little guy can do well. There are three things that mislead people about the stock market. 1. Markets are not rational they are based ONLY on greed, fashion and fear. 2. Markets are not quantitative they are qualitative perceptions of value thus quantitative analysis techniques taught in financial schools are of little to no value. 3. If people are talking about "the next big tech thing you should invest in" at the local coffee bar, it's far too late and that train has left the station if the general public knows about it. Real tech inventions are very secretive, if you're not familiar or in that business don't buy into it based on popular trends. Contrarian bets often pay bigger too.
 
1 - 20 of 47 Posts
Top