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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I have been a big proponent of the Alpha Strategy and learning survival skills purchasing gear/guns/ammo my whole life, started stockpiling consumables in response to my gut feeling that hard times were upon us. Finally in the last 3 months people (my 16 yr old daughter especially) have changed their view of me from crazy to visionary. I have every nook and cranny in my house with some gear or food, plus I have 2 8x10 storage units and a couple of caches. I'm already going straight to my stores because I just can't bear what the price of food has become.

What gets me is how the gov't can say we are still at 3.4% inflation. Since March 1st, food has risen on average 18% (don't have the actual link but I believe it was through NewsMax.com . A trip to the store can confirm this and I shop the commisary/wal-mart/99cent only. Especially the prices at the commissary are indicative because they sell at a fixed markup for the products cost so I saw the price of canned veggies hold even at the beginning until a new shipment sent them from .53 to .67 thats 26%. I could list everything that has gone up but I would be here all day.

The one that got my daughter to admit that I was right was canned fruit at the 99cent only store. It's not like the price can go up but look at the sizes, In April we bought 25 30oz cans and she talked me out of more saying to buy them next month (I think she just didn't want to haul) the cans are now 16oz cans. That's 87.5%, at that time she said 'Sorry you were right and I'll never doubt your purchases again, it's obvious you have a plan.'

As part of my food preps (Alpha strategy) I have over a years supply of food and supplies. If you take 18% as the average increase of food my R.O.I. on supplies exceeded even my gold fund.

Do I need more-do I want more? One side says spend $5k this weekend before it's too late. But what if it goes back down. Plus I can't come around to buying something that I already have and spend over 18% more than what it was just 2 months ago. Plus, I risk having too much and my inflation savings of my supplies will erode due to waste.

Anyways, this was just a rant. I want to make people aware of the fact that we were visionaries, the return on our investment already is 18%, maybe now we will actually not be so ridiculed, (I have had alot of family and friends call me for food storagetips). And spread the word: if you believe in 3.4% inflation you've been sleeping under a rock this last couple of months. And if you calculate sizes decreasing you will find that the reality of 18% might actually be doubled.

I'm currently auditing my inventory and will purchase items that I know I will use. I also feel like Scrooge McDuck when I go through all my goods rolling in the glory of my welath.

BTW: here's a link for the alpha strategy from 1980, this guy was the true visionary.

http://simplefinancialfreedom.com/the-alpha-strategy
www.biorationalinstitute.com/zcontent/alpha_strategy.pdf
 

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The government doesn't count increases in food or fuel in it's inflation figures, that's why you don't see it. I've been keeping track of my costs and I shop at the discount stores or on special sale and with coupons. I've seen things go up between 10% and 30% in the last year. Regular stuff! I heard a while ago that coffee was going up and so I really stocked up hard on it. It continues to rise and after figuring, I've already saved $300 just on the coffee stash!
I don't know how folks are going to do this much longer. A friend had her heating oil rise 33% over last year. I don't bother to get much now unless I have a special deal on it...just trying to maintain what I have. I don't believe it's going back down for a LONG time.
 

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What would Mal do
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I tend to do price indexing based on the more prominent items I keep in my preps...typically my at-a-glance measuring stick are the canned veggies.
our area grocery chains will do sales every couple months with a bogo and I usually grab several dozen cans when they do...3 months ago that meant I was getting name brand..not store label...2 cans for $1.20 so at 60ents a full size can I felt it was a smart move to get them...but for the past couple months those sales haven't happened..they did have the cheap store label cans on sale at about 85ents each...and that lasted all of 3 days.
I've watched in a matter of a few weeks as the brand name cans have risen from $1.20each to $1.39, $1.51, and now they are at $1.69 for the same can that I bought just a few months back at 60cents! and the more alarming thing is that this is middle of summer when canned veggies are competing against fresh garden and farmers market - the canned stuff should be dirt cheap...come winter this could get ugly.

never mind that I got some as late as last December for .45cents and fortunately I loaded up the buggy on a couple trips to that store that week.

my family are the only ones that know about my food supply and while I can't get them to do it themselves, they do acknowldge that I'm smart to have done it here.

I continue to shop for deals and I've been pestering my wife to get serious about couponing..she is not working at a day job so she has time to help us save some money on the food...she does however have a heckuva nice garden going and I can't see the kitchen counters for all the bags of food that she picked just the past 2 days...and we just had some home made speggetti sauce...oh yeah!!
W should have more room in our big freezer by this Fall and our farming friends will have some more hogs ready for market by then so we'll get another one from them...then deer season will be upon us.. I don't hunt, but several friends do and they bag more than they can store so there's usually a spare couple deer around for me to put away.
 

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I seldom ever pay retail for food. Example: I stocked ~400 lbs of pasta for $.14/lb. a while back using coupons and bogos.

My food storage is my way of investing in commodities.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
Rextex you've misunderstood my point: for every dollar u eat out of your stores you have made at least 18% on your investment. The question we all have to ask ourselves is do we start consuming and in essence cash out our investment at a gain of at least 18% and reinvest at a later date or continue stockpiling using a cost average. I'm just concerned that at my buying to consumption rate I have no loss but eventually with higher levels i'll start taking losses due to waste.

Read the alpha strategy and treat your education/skills, stockpiles and lifestyle as an investment business.

I literally keep inventory, balance sheet ledgers of my supplies.

Actually I reassessed what u were saying, it's me who misunderstood. U are in fact saying: buy even at the higher cost of 18% because u feel we have not yet peaked. But I'm actually thinking of holding steady until sept 2nd, then buy up to a 2 yr level since I feel that we are actually going to hold steady until this fall.
 

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Food , fuel , medical , insurance ,ammo and just about everything else keeps going up up up!

The value of the dollars you make is going down down down!

What comes next is what we prepare for!:eek:
 

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Rextex you've misunderstood my point: for every dollar u eat out of your stores you have made at least 18% on your investment. The question we all have to ask ourselves is do we start consuming and in essence cash out our investment at a gain of at least 18% and reinvest at a later date or continue stockpiling. I'm just concerned that at my buying to consumption rate I have no loss but eventually with higher levels i'll start taking losses due to waste.

Read the alpha strategy and treat your education/skills, stockpiles and lifestyle as an investment business.

I literally keep inventory, balance sheet legers of my supplies.
Prepper Rule 1: Store what you eat and eat what you store.

I kept a spreadsheet with all my food until I passed a year...was just unmanageable at that point.
 

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Food is not going to go down period. Hasn't ever happened. Once our economy collapse food will be cheap when no one has any money but will run out quick. Buy as much as you can now. My gut says default but then who knows. I dont know if you need 5K worth of stuff at this exact moment but definitely spend everything you can when you KNOW our economy is in the ****ter. If we default yes. Max out the credit cards. I dont understand why people are worried about paying down debts as a prep. Probably because they believe the economy wont collapse. If you believe it will then debts will be a moot point, you'll be able to pay them off with a piece of paper.

I would wait until it is a sure thing before going all out and spending everything though.
 

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Prepared Firebird
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The cost of food and fuel used to be included in the inflation percentage figures. Then Bernanke and his gang came up with the brilliant (to them) idea of creating something called "core inflation"........which leaves out food and fuel.......to create the false illusion that the country is doing okay. THIS core inflation number is the one that gets reported every month in the media, with Bernanke smugly insisting there is nothing to worry about because inflation is "low".

Soooooo.......if you give up that frivolous little habit you have of wanting to eat food every day and you don't need to drive for any reason......then, yeah, inflation is low. LOL
 

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Yes, but then why do the news articles of the last 3 days say how terrible it is that food is at 3% inflation? Anybody who shops at a grocery store knows that is a pack of lies.

Are they trying to pull the wool over our eyes? Is anyone actually falling for it?
 

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I have to agree about the noticeable increase in foods. I shop for a small nursing home and while costs here were a little slower to rise than the rest of the country, they've been catching up at a ridiculous pace ever since.

Now utilities seem to be about the same as before. So, I'm sure that they count those in the inflation totals. But with fuel costs increasing, I expect them to play catch up soon too.

I also love their down played unemployment figures. I realize that actual unemployment is different in different areas. With some places not noticing much change, and others almost wiped out by it. But a LARGE percentage of the businesses here have closed in the last 2 years. And I've seen where a thousand people were in line for 1 or 2 jobs. I'm also seeing a large number of people falling for those temporary "we're hiring" kiosks that set up for a day or two in parking lots.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 · (Edited)
I would wait until it is a sure thing before going all out and spending everything though.
That was my intent on this post just including my supplies not plant property ( equipment and gear, btw guns and ammo are never included, those were a whole different investment strategy not based on inflation but on high costs due to gun control) I have just over 15K on food/ grains.

I guess now I'm wondering if I should invest another 5 K now or later. Yes, when I feel that hyper inflation is upon us and the credit cards are still good by all means buy sellable goods until your credit max. Then 3 months later sell some stuff for 25K of worthless money and pay off your credit card, and if it becomes TEOTWAWKI completely then it is a moot point.
 

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I would say that if you have the money to spare, and there's nothing else you're going to do with it except put it in the bank, go ahead and buy more preps.

Prices will only go up.

In February a local store and boxes of 525 rounds of 22LR ammo on sale for $12.99. I got one. I should have gotten a lot more. A month or so ago I went back, and they were on sale again, but for $14.99. I was tempted to wait and see if they'd go back down, but I got a few packs anyway. I've called several times since then and they have just gone up - so now even the $14.99 price that a month ago seemed "high" now seems like a great deal.

It's the same way with many things.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
I would say that if you have the money to spare, and there's nothing else you're going to do with it except put it in the bank, go ahead and buy more preps.

Prices will only go up.

In February a local store and boxes of 525 rounds of 22LR ammo on sale for $12.99. I got one. I should have gotten a lot more. A month or so ago I went back, and they were on sale again, but for $14.99. I was tempted to wait and see if they'd go back down, but I got a few packs anyway. I've called several times since then and they have just gone up - so now even the $14.99 price that a month ago seemed "high" now seems like a great deal.

It's the same way with many things.
God, I hate California when I filled out my ammo 3 years ago I bought the 525packs of federal for 14.99 at walmart now they're 16.25, I don't think we ever paid 12.99.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Actually, I've decided to finish flushing the old 500gal fuel tank and fill it up on sept. 2. That will pretty much be when gas gets down as low as it will go. Btw the reason I keep picking that date is that this 5 k investment increase is a birthday present to myself. And then i'll buy the difference in food.
 
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