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Red White and Blue
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
http://qz.com/641886/donald-trumps-...uld-lead-to-higher-food-prices-and-shortages/

**In 2011, farmers in Georgia complained about the lack of skilled workers due to the state’s stringent new anti-immigration laws. (Even though states cannot deport people, a state law can decimate the immigrant labor pool because many immigrants stop feeling safe enough to work there.)

“We just don’t have the labor and it’s gonna get worse,” a Georgia farmer told The Daily (pdf) in the summer of 2011, after letting a third of his produce die in the field because he didn’t have the manpower to harvest. In 2012, increased federal anti-immigration efforts led to similar tales of labor shortages from New York to California.
As farmers in Georgia and across the US have discovered, when immigrant workers aren’t around, they are difficult to replace. “US workers are totally unwilling to do this work,” says Laura-Anne Minkoff-Zern, an assistant professor of food studies at Syracuse University.**

article speculates on Trump throwing out all the illegals etc.

**Under a Trump immigration plan, though, things would undoubtedly get much worse. The sudden disappearance of half of America’s hired crop workers would have catastrophic impacts on the $835 billion agriculture sector, of which about $177 billion—or about 1% of the US’s GDP—comes from farms. This would have wide-ranging implications for Americans, both short-term and long-term.

Labor shortages would create food shortages, increase imports, and raise prices. “If agriculture were to lose access to all undocumented workers, agricultural output would fall by $30 to $60 billion,” the Farm Bureau predicts. “The immediate loss of this large a share of the general work force would cause economic chaos,” the organization found in a 2014 report on labor.**

sober warning or political hysteria?
that's why I believes in selective enforcement. those illegals that work hard and stay out of trouble should be left alone. gangsters and welfare cheats, dump them.
 

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sober warning or political hysteria?
hysteria.

We are all going to starve because mexicans won't pick our food anymore BS.

lack of skilled workers due to the state’s stringent new anti-immigration laws
haha, ok. Skilled work is an American specialty.

US workers are totally unwilling to do this work...
really? You mean paying someone bull **** isn't an attractive enough feature of the job. An illegal can send the money back to his family in Mexico and actually live off the money, opposed to the US where the money doesn't stretch as far as it does third world country.

a Georgia farmer told The Daily (pdf) in the summer of 2011, after letting a third of his produce die in the field because he didn’t have the manpower to harvest.
the govt. Actually pays farmers to have this happen.

US food prices are already sky high, many large US farms are equipped with big ass machines and automation. The government pays farmers to not grow or destroy crops. The government hands out millions and sometimes billions in corporate welfare to farms.
 

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Loooooooong time Lurker
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Should the unlikely possibility of all immigrants getting deported actually come to pass, it is true that Farmers would lose cheap labor. However, stating that Americans do not want this work is not quite the truth.

I am willing to bet that there are plenty of Americans that would do the job if it paid well enough. Naturally the farmer's cost of harvesting would go up, as would the final cost of the product in the grocery store. Ultimately prices would rise until it balanced out, or we end up with all of our food coming from countries where labor is cheap. Here illegals don't just harvest crops and mow grass, they are brick layers, framers, roofers, carpenters, and mechanics; all jobs that pay quite a bit more than harvesting.

The sudden void of missing unskilled / skilled labor could be quickly filled by millennials with degrees in "underwater basket weaving". And while wages may rise across the board, the cash earned would stay here instead of being wired to foreign countries.
 

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Time to melt snowflakes!
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Should the unlikely possibility of all immigrants getting deported actually come to pass, it is true that Farmers would lose cheap labor. However, stating that Americans do not want this work is not quite the truth.
All immigrants?

I am willing to bet that there are plenty of Americans that would do the job if it paid well enough. Naturally the farmer's cost of harvesting would go up, as would the final cost of the product in the grocery store. Ultimately prices would rise until it balanced out, or we end up with all of our food coming from countries where labor is cheap. Here illegals don't just harvest crops and mow grass, they are brick layers, framers, roofers, carpenters, and mechanics; all jobs that pay quite a bit more than harvesting.

The sudden void of missing unskilled / skilled labor could be quickly filled by millennials with degrees in "underwater basket weaving". And while wages may rise across the board, the cash earned would stay here instead of being wired to foreign countries.
In the end it most likely would not hurt us, though the process might hurt some.
 

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Time to melt snowflakes!
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It's hard to prove a negative, but i am sure that forcing 11 to 30 million illegals will result in massive shortages and price increases.

Flame on!
No flaming, but care to expand on the statement?
Sources etc are appreciated. :D:

EDIT:
Keep in mind there are already legal routes to pay individuals as 'spot labor' who are US citizens, that is ignoring the already illegal 'under the table' cash jobs.
 

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Time to melt snowflakes!
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No sources. Just the opinion of an old guy that has a lot of miles under his keel, an MBA and an engineering degree, who has been conducting international business for almost 40 years.
I can understand the idea, but I think many forget that there is a LARGE segment of the US Citizenry who already work for cash, but are considered 'unemployed' :thumb:
 

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It's hard to prove a negative, but i am sure that forcing 11 to 30 million illegals will result in massive shortages and price increases.

Flame on!
No flame from me either.
Next time you unload your groceries,especially produce..look where it comes from.

I'm sure everyone on here is "buy American",but that ain't reality...toss out cheap labor to pick produce,and it will be even worse.
You really want to pay 4$ for an avacodo?
 

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accipere rubrum pilula
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I bought my first car by working on a tomato farm. It was a year round job, in Michigan of all places.

In the winter months we grew in green houses for the restaurant trade, late winter we'd get ready for the summer field work.

We would start hundreds of plants by seed, train & prune and get them in the fields when growing season started.

There were about a dozen full timers and many part timers working there. I was part time during school and full time during summer break.

I worked 12 hour days during the summer and busted my butt. All for $1 an hour and .05 for every basket I picked.

Out of everyone working there the "illegals" made up at least 95% of the workforce. The new hires that were "citizens" usually didn't last a couple days because the work was too hard, the sun was too hot, too many bugs and on and on.

On payday the owner did cash in envelopes, but you could tell if someone got a full or empty(ish) envelope.

Like I said, I bought a car picking tomatoes, it wasn't new but it was solid and I owned it free and clear.

Back then (70's) if you busted butt you could make decent money and I'm sure the same is true today, but field work is tough not sure if many of the younger people can handle it.
 

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Red White and Blue
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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Is it the lack of skilled workers or the fact that a lot of them have moved from the fields to manufacturing jobs?
not to be snarky, but I thought there weren't any manufacturing jobs?


I spent some time in a rural area and every summer teens and a few adults would pick tomatoes strawberries etc. hard to see kids today doing such work. partly cuz their parents don't want their preciouses getting their hands dirty. and if parents buy them car / game system etc, why bother?
 

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Wile E Coyote, Genius.
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I will try to add a little detail. Sorry I was on my cell phone earlier and not so easy to type on it.

When I was young and living near Pittsburgh, the only significant low pay working class was from blacks freed from their previous oppression, and European immigrants, including ireland. They all pretty much worked their butts off. Then some smart guys discovered they could make money through organized crime, and organized labor.

After WWII, we enjoyed a decade or so of having no global competition. The rest of the world had been shattered by war. So our economy was able to endure losses of productivity, increased wages, and continual and violent labor union strikes (UAW, Teamsters, Coal miners, Steel Workers.)

Eventually Germany and Japan's economy began to recover. Some of the most creative and productive people on the planet, regardless if you like them personally or not. So we were flooded with cheap imported cars, radios and TVs. VW (Hitler's common folks wagon), Honda, Toyota, Sony. Their quality gradually increased and surpassed ours.

First our TV and radio producers went out of business. Philco, Zenith, Magnevox.
Then our automotive industry hit the pinch point. Labor responded by striking more.
Same with our steel mills. idiots. Car companies disappeared or were absorbed into the ones still making it.
Steel mills finlally closed for the most part, or transitioned to making small capacity special alloys. Or remelting/reprocessing scrap ( NUCOR Steel)

Nixon became president when things really came to a head. Labor wanted and demanded higher wages for less work. This drove massive runaway inflation and stalled the economy. Nixon imposed wage and price controls which flat doesn't work. We had shortages and prices skyrocketed. (Note the recent collapse of Venezuela who tried that brilliant move again).
Almost any kind of meat was unaffordable, nobody ate out much, buying a car was a monumental outlay of cash. people took payment plans with interest rates that would make any loan shark proud. Buying a socket set and a few simple hand tools for your car trunk cost the equal of several week's wages.

Here we are a few decades later. The once mighty Steel, automotive and mining towns have been obliterated, and if they were lucky, like Pittsburgh, remade themselves with different types of business, not so much producing anything anymore. Other Cities like Detroit have fallen to third world condition.

The South in the meantime has had an ever increasing illegal workforce, which prevented any significant organized labor here. As a result, the economy of the southern states, primarily Texas and California and somewhat in Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, etc. has grown steadily and has been able to attract business investment from around the world.

If that cheap, plentiful labor supply is shut off, Say hello to the problems of the North emerging in the South. Labor unions, promising higher wages for less work for American workers, and killing our economy.

if you think you can accomodate these workers through seasonal migration permits, just be aware that the sheer numbers might require upwards of 5000 immigration agent/clerks/lines to check them all in and out of the country. Moving 10 million people through a line expeditiously, is like checking out at the world's largest WalMart. The Line will be 10 miles long.
 

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Time to melt snowflakes!
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30,160 Posts
I spent some time in a rural area and every summer teens and a few adults would pick tomatoes strawberries etc. hard to see kids today doing such work. partly cuz their parents don't want their preciouses getting their hands dirty. and if parents buy them car / game system etc, why bother?
It is not even that. My daughter WANTS to work, but the newer child labor laws will not allow her. I started working at 14 (cannot remember) at a 'taxable job' Now, my daughter is not allowed to work until she is 16 or is EXTREMELY limited in when/where/how she can work.

These 'labor laws' designed to 'protect children' hamper their advancement. The work I did as a teen would be illegal now under the current labor laws, and that is how I provided spending money and money for my household bills.
 

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Time to melt snowflakes!
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30,160 Posts
if you think you can accomodate these workers through seasonal migration permits, just be aware that the sheer numbers might require upwards of 5000 immigration agent/clerks/lines to check them all in and out of the country. Moving 10 million people through a line expeditiously, is like checking out at the world's largest WalMart. The Line will be 10 miles long.
What country checks in/our guest workers on a daily basis?
Worker visa's are nothing new and are used successfully here and in other countries on a regular basis currently. :thumb:

Seems like you are trying to say let the illegals stay . . . because!
 

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Retired thinker
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Here's a novel idea. Halt food stamps and all forms of welfare for able bodied bottom feeders. Redirect the money spent on them to pay them to not work and instead create a system of bus transportation and tent cities to house the Americans so they can do the menial labor. Give the workers a small hourly subsidy in lieu of cash payments and benefits for doing absolutely nothing. Sure, there are problems even with this approach but to condone a flood of illegal immigration based on the notion that Americans, who are unemployed and on welfare, do not want those jobs is not a rational solution. Paying Democrats to vote and not work is also a bad idea.
 

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Wile E Coyote, Genius.
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What country checks in/our guest workers on a daily basis?
Worker visa's are nothing new and are used successfully here and in other countries on a regular basis currently. :thumb:

Seems like you are trying to say let the illegals stay . . . because!
No, I am saying even if you check them all in and out on a seasonal basis , the logistics of processing that many people will be impressive. I haven't run any numbers though. If you figure 10 minutes per person times 10 million people, and try to get them all through the border in say a week or two, do the math.

I think we do need to apply pressure to employers to have verification of work status, and certainly have a controlled border. But you should never "shock" the system. When a patient goes into shock, he often dies.

The pain of the shock will be felt by the illegals most certainly, but to us as well. The one time that tariffs are justified, it to protect a nation's economy from systemic shock, such as might happen if China was to start dumping steel or whatever onto our market at obscenely low prices. The tariff must only be a temporary measure however and although to be avoided normally, is sometimes justified to avoid shocking the economy. High tariffs left in place for long however, ruins the global competetiveness of your country's industry.
 
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