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IF we went to war with China.

14K views 196 replies 74 participants last post by  ralfy  
#1 ·
What will you do and what Preps are you making Now??.
 
#2 ·
Same thing I have always done. I will prep for it to hit my area and if it doesn't then all the better for me.
 
#5 ·
Vlad,

With only 1 or 2 differences, my prep is the same.

One difference is getting out my index cards to refresh my memory on some Chinese, ...

Other difference is to offer cdr of landing craft if he'd trade a bottle or 2 of Mao Tai sorghum liquor for a half case of Chinese plum wine.

Joking aside, don't want to get activated with any former Fed agency. This takes some work.
 
#11 ·
There might (well, probably) be some saboteur/terrorism stuff happening in the US, but by and large the big bad stuff will be happening on their side of the Pacific.

I'd be concerned about terror-style attacks, to include small-scale chemical and biological attacks, infrastructure attacks, bombings, and hacking/information attacks.

I'd also be concerned about economic and logistical problems.

And finally, I'd be extremely concerned about government overreach in the name of the war effort. Censorship, suspension of habeas corpus and other Constitutional rights, conscription, confiscation, forced labor, propaganda, etc.
 
#15 ·
What does war look like with China? Whatever that looks like, will make people prepare and survive accordingly.

When the OP asks the question, I think nearly everyone imagines the Navy's and Air Force's of two world powers, going at it in the general Asia area.

But what if that isn't the scenario?

What if our Military is compromised and China starts to land troops on our west coast and use their Y-20's to dump their Airborne at 2,000 head count a pop every 24 hours in various areas across the West?

That would change everyone's scenario immediately.


......
 
#20 ·
The first huge obstacle to that is how few troops China could move across the Pacific, even without any opposition.

The second huge obstacle is how little logistical support China could give those troops, even without opposition.

China's ability to project power is built exclusively to operate in their back yard. They just have better options for conflict than military operations outside of border conflicts, invading Taiwan, reinforcing their North Korean buffer state, or possibly attacking Japan in some weird scenario.

When/if they're able to accomplish their regional goals, resolve their domestic instability, and get their Belt and Roads projects further along, they might decide to focus on troop lift and power projection. But right now, they couldn't invade the US even if they had perfect conditions and the desire to do so.
 
#16 · (Edited)
They don't want any war with us but an economic one. They need our business and to keep stealing our tech, and we're inconveniently located for making conventional war. They have millions of young male bodies, many excess to requirements at the moment, to draft into an army of invasion and occupation. They don't have that large a navy or air force. A land war is their best bet.

They're going to keep taking our money, which we will undoubtedly continue stupid enough to keep giving them, and use it to eventually make war on Russia after they bamboozle Putin into expending all his arms and armies in the Ukraine while producing increasing political and civil discontent in his country by "helping" him with a few token armaments and many promises of undying friendship.

Russia has tons of oil plus other resources, not excluding the biggest rights to the probable Arctic resource bonanza of the coming century, lots of space, and lots of agricultural land right next door to them. By the time they get around to invading, it may even have the Ukraine breadbasket of Europe, or at least part of it. Once they capture the Siberian oil, it's on to Moscow.

If the second Mongol Empire lasts long enough, they may tidy up a bit around the edges of Asia where it seems worthwhile to do so and consider annexing some of Europe or Africa. If they have any sense, North and South America are way down on their list of most useful/beneficial/convenient targets available at affordable cost.

The only way I see China launching a major armed conflict with the United States in any near-term future is if we act like total idiots (always a possibility, admitted) or if they somehow completely lose their strategic sense and ability to set priorities. My gut instinct is that their passively siding with Russia and encouraging it to go on fighting in the Ukraine for now is just a shrewd strategic move in a game of Go, meant to mislead and distract attention while they set up their end game.
 
#17 ·
Were going to lose in Ukraine and Taiwan, the Dollar is going to implode and it will look like our pull out from Afghanistan all around the world.....
Yes it's going to be that bad.
Wormuth is the latest US official to openly discuss the fact that the US is preparing for war with China. Earlier this year, a four-star Air Force general predicted the US will be at war with China within two years and ordered his forces to be prepared. “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025,” Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of Air Mobility Command, said of war with China in a leaked memo.
 
#19 ·
Were going to lose in Ukraine
Except that would be impossible since we're not in that war; giving Ukraine "stuff" doesn't change the US doesn't have "boots on the ground" and at least right now Ukraine has been doing a great job against Russia so I'm not sure what intel is being used to come to any such conclusion?

I can't see China doing anything to cause us to go to war with their largest most valuable customer either for that matter the US is far too important to them and they need us IMHO
 
#46 · (Edited)
Which is why the CCP has spent 20 years conducting a MASSIVE military buildup and modernization. The goal was to get as much of our industry and economy sucked out of the US and Europe and into China as possible, use it to gain military advantage, and then when the milk cow stopped producing go on the warpath to secure their advantage and prevent the west from rebuilding their industry and military capacity, then dictating the west's position as economic vassals.

Everyone has been sleeping for decades and has been completely unaware of what the CCP has been doing. They are now almost as strong as the US and are rapidly increasing in strength as the US militarily/economically/politically/culturally continues to decline extremely fast. If war doesn't happen now the west will end up so far behind China that there won't be a way to recover.

We all know the Chinese love to copy everyone else's work. The CCP's military looks like the US military, but better mechanized because they can produce the same vehicles for cheaper. Their airforce looks just like the US airforce of the 2000s. Their navy looks just like the US Pacific Fleet and will soon dwarf the entire US Navy which is declining in ships and firepower while the Chinese pump out entire fleets of ships every year including cruisers and carriers.

If we continue as we are with arrogance assuming nothing has changed from our glory days we're going to get a humiliating bloody nose just like Russia has.

As for domestic problems here: Trade will collapse. Everything is produced in China. Expect shortages way beyond what the pandemic gave us at its worst. China's greatest strength in a war is its industry and western dependence on it. The CCP has absolutely no concern for losing trade if they go to war. They desire it. Why? Because in that situation they are handed a massive surplus of goods with nowhere to send them. The west is handed a massive shortage of goods with nowhere to get them. In any conflict the US will be operating under a time limit. They must complete the war and reestablish trade with China as fast as possible because every day the US will get closer to logistical collapse. If the war goes on too long US society will break down making the war the least of its concerns.

The other threat is nuclear escalation and sabotage of various logistical grids such as communications or electricity.

The conventional war itself will be far from me.

So my preps are essentially nuclear war and aftermath type preps. Radiation protection, stockpiles, sustainable production of new resources, and security for those.
 
#25 ·
Some might say, fortunately, we have a massive ocean between us.

Some might say, unfortunately, we have a massive ocean between us.

Yeah.... That massive ocean forces only one viable type of attack from China and Russia to our homeland...... and it is in the form of Hyper-Sonics.


But some of you are spot on.... China doesn't want to kill their largest customer. China has the popcorn and are just sitting back, watching us destroy ourselves.

It'll just be interesting what China does, if they decide to take Taiwan and we interfere.
 
#30 · (Edited)
We'll have to start a pool on Japan and Korea versus Russia.

Given they are currently happily assisting Russia in turning itself into an international pariah no one is going to jump to defend, and going after either Japan or S. Korea would trigger off various defense agreements/treaties including ours with Japan to come to its defense, plus they have very little to gain by occupying either Japan or S. Korea and everything they want/need to gain by doing the same to Russia, I don't see any danger to Japan.

Sure, China would like to control the South China Sea, but that's way behind China would like to own a lot of oil fields and find a lot of good ol' lebensraum for itself.

Depending on how badly Russia does or doesn't shoot itself in the foot with Putin's Ukraine adventure and how difficult things become at home for the CPC due to the economy, a Chinese move on Russia may come sooner or later, but I think it is logically in the cards eventually.
 
#32 ·
I don't believe it will happen for the following reasons.
  • We are too big a trading partner for them. Why shoot the goose laying your golden eggs? They need us producing and buying.
  • We're no threat to them, except over Taiwan and the South China Sea. But neither are worth going to war over.
  • They are pretty much having their way with us without firing a shot.
  • They don't have the amphibious capability to be successful in invading the US and they don't have the ability to govern the country even if they did. BTW, they have tried several military incursions into India, which is right next door and they have mostly gotten their asses kicked. By India!!!