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When the SHTF or TEOTWAWKI happens, what are the areas of concern that need to be addressed, the timelines, and the sequential orders to do such things...

We've been doing MDMP at work and it's a process/method for making decisions. It's sequential and a framework, but produces timelines and addresses all areas of mission analysis. Who? What? Why? When? Where?

Say...on a normal workday, you're minding your own business, but something happens that sends that feeling of disgust through your gut and triggers your primal fight or flight response. For example, riots in most major cities due to a presidential election, a dirty bomb in the closest major city to your location, an EMP attack, a Red Dawn invasion.

What are your immediate areas of concern? And then how do you address them...

What is Step 1, Step 2, Step 3, Step 4, etc.

For instance:

I work 5 minutes from home. My wife is at home with our baby. My 3 sons are across town at school. I can't be armed at work.

If the SHTF: How do I get my sons? Do I go home first and strap up and then go get them? Do I assume they'll be okay until I can get to them later and hope everything blows over? Do I stay at work? Do I fill my bathtub with water in case water pressure steps?

I feel like my first initial reaction is to secure my family. I think this looks like going home, locking down my wife and baby, and getting in my vehicle, with loadout, to go get my sons and get home ASAP. But...

Do I go to my buddy's house and grab him too? Help him get his kids too? Work as a team? Go at it alone?

I guess I'm asking if there is a way to think through a play-by-play framework to where we can essentially have a checklist that says, Step 1. Then Step 2. If no Step 2, move to Step 3. If no need for Step 3 go to Step 6. and create a sort of SHTF flowchart of action, sequential steps of to-do list, or at least have a type of effective framework for making decisions based on our pre-determined priorities?
 

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Born 120 years too late.
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YOU NEED to define some issues.

How big the town that your kids are on the other side of it to go to school?

What is the make up of the town?
What kind of EOTW are you contemplating? Asteroid strike, race war, earthquake???

too general a question for appropriate response.
 

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If only it was that simple...

While you can lay out generalities, there is no hard and fast rule. What if you plan to go home, but that requires crossing a wide deep river. It just so happens every local bridge was blown out of existence by the terrorists that detonated the dirty bomb. Your sequential plan went out the window before you walked out of work. Or let's say you plan to head to school first, but all communications are out and the threat is so close that the school has no choice but to pack the kids on buses. Then they take them somewhere even farther away... in the opposite direction you would be going to get to school.

Still having a plan is good, but more in the form of the flowchart you mentioned. So if A, then you do B , otherwise you do C. Laying that out with the family will let them know what you plan to do even if, more than likely, communication is impossible. Still allow for wild cards in this. What if you CAN'T leave work? What if your wife is not safe staying at home?

It can drive you insane if you try to herd the 1000 cats worth of possibilities into something tidy. Maybe think outside the box. Is your buddy closer to work than home? Could you stash gear there so you can grab it on your way, no matter where you head first. Maybe you pull the old bus depot locker drop that movies are so fond of. Just make sure things there are not traceable and replaceable in case they decide 6 months is too long to let it sit without cutting it open.

One last thing... breath... there is no right answer.
 

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First... you should calm down... relax... take a few deep breaths.

Next... realize the question you’re asking can’t really be answered. Everyone has a different situation they are in, some have family, some don’t. Some have a lot of preps, some have nothing. Some are armed, some not. Some have extensive training, others are just starting to learn.... there is no way to post a definitive list of what to do when SHTF when none of us can even say why or when S will HTF

You sound like someone just starting out and trying to learn. You also sound like you may be panicking because you think the world will end around 11:47 tonight and you haven’t got all the preps you need and all the training you think you need...

A timeline for an unknown event in an unknown location due to an unspecified reason involving an unknown amount of people all with unknown backgrounds, skills and motivations.... way to many variables to calculate
 

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Swirl Herder
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As the long termers here taught me years ago, avoid scenario prepping.

The chances of you correctly guessing the crises that will befall you, are infinitesimally small - so don't bother trying to guess.

Instead gather skills, gear and supplies that address the essentials required for life, health and safety (and are applicable to most crises):

Shelter
Water
Food
Security
Defence (and where it is the best form of Defence, Offence)
Mobility
Demolitions
Concealment
Hunt, fish, forage
Food production, agriculture, livestock
Food cookery and preservation
First Aid
Medical
Offgrid and renewable electrical power generation, storage and processing
Communications
Knowledge storage
Remote Sensing
Construction, fabrication, repair, manufacture
Timber harvest and processing
Clothing, footware, wet/hot/cold protection
Hygiene
Trade goods
Network, Mutual Assistance, local skills and information network
NBC detection and PPE

Working on those things is less fun than running a post apocalyptic movie in your head (with our help), but trying to imagine what crisis will happen next (and developing a crisis specific cookbook for it) won't help your survival prospects.

Try to be better prepared for whatever happens.

No one has a crystal ball (that works).
 

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Make sure you can get your children from the school if something happens. Some school districts are saying they will not release students to anyone including parents if a disaster strikes, but will instead transport them to a safe location.
 

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I guess I'm asking if there is a way to think through a play-by-play framework to where we can essentially have a checklist that says, Step 1. Then Step 2. If no Step 2, move to Step 3. If no need for Step 3 go to Step 6. and create a sort of SHTF flowchart of action, sequential steps of to-do list, or at least have a type of effective framework for making decisions based on our pre-determined priorities?
That's called scenario prepping. The only way you can ever figure out step 1, step 2, etc., is to know ahead of time exactly what is going to happen and how it's going to play out. And guess, what? No matter how much you think you do...you don't.

About the only scenarios one can prepare for are the natural disasters that hit regularly in some regions. Earthquakes, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

Prepare for "whatever might happen" rather than trying to predict it. It makes a lot more sense.
 

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reluctant sinner
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Break your needs down to manageable tasks.

Why would you need to fill the bathtub - your wife could do that, you should have water besides a tub full.

I doubt that things will turn shooting ugly in 5 minutes or even in 5 hours but after that the bets are off. It is often said civilization ends after 5 missed meals.

Everyone should have a BOB. You should have places to go by different means and paths.
 

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make a list of risks, then how you'll mitigate the risks, for example

food shortages
electrical outage
no gas or fuel, unavailable at pump
internet and phones down
your house sinks into the earth unexpectedly
you are in the path of nuclear fallout that will reach your location in 1 hour
etc etc

the real challenge is getting anyone else to agree to any action and remember when/if the time comes. one big thing is printed names, addresses, and contact info. say if you were in a camp due to a disaster in your area, and wanted to send a letter to your family or friends - do you even know the address? do you have the phone number memorized? Do your children have a meeting place documented in their bags? Do they have your contact info - should they get separated?
 

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Put one vote down for what Mike said...

But how likely is a true TEOTWAWKI situation really? I have never seen one even with this Covid situation. My father never saw one and he lived through a World War and the Great Depression.

If some great event should actually happen take just a minute and ask yourself, "What is the smartest thing I could do right now?"

Possibly, you should do nothing or as little as possible. A lot of bad situations tend to sort themselves out after a week or so. Or, at least they come into better focus.

If an actual dirty bomb should go off or the water supply is really contaminated get the hell out of the area as soon as possible. That's the smartest thing you could do.

Not that it couldn't happen, but a true, actual TEOTWAWKI situation is very unlikely.
 

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Your kids are in school X number hours out of X number of days a year (possibly much less with Covid). They are also in transport mode —bus — a certain amount of time.

Ditto with you at work and your wife at home (I assume she takes the baby to a dr., visits friends and family, goes shopping, and even sees her own dr.)

If your wife is home she probably capable locking things down himself.

Re: your friend? Is he at his job? Do his kids go to the same schools as yours?

How many bad riots start in the middle of the day? Dirty bomb??? Don’t worry unless there is a strong wind your direction from this nearby city, plus the schools may be better built than your house. EMP — if you think it will take out vehicles you better have good walking routes. If you think it won’t take out cars, then EVERYONE will be on the roads. (Also likely for dirty bomb panic).

What are your plans if something happens at night or on days you are home? Modify off of them for work/school situations.

Remember the schools might be short term safer (say they are further from the dirty bomb, or from areas with nightime riots) than your own home.

So it is 2am and you hear shoots and smell smoke. You get up. Police radio/news says there is a riot with fires X miles away moving towards you? What are your plans then? The rest of town is safe. Can you safely move your family out? Where do you go?
 

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Great questions, @Abishai. Excellent thread.

You are on the right track. Working out what to do if things do go bad.
Keep thinking about it and keep working out different ways to do things.
If you have 5 plans already worked out you will be able to go with the plan that works best at the time. Remember that plans rarely work but once you start you can modify the plan as you go.

There is some great info in the posts here.
I play the "What if..." game a lot.
What if no cars will work because of EMP? What if I can't drive to the school because earthquakes have destroyed the roads and bridges? What if I can't get out of the driveway because the road is totally blocked by cars?

What if my boys are at school and my wife and baby are out shopping? What if my boys are with friends and my wife is at home?

What if all communications are down, phones, radio, internet, everything?

Keep running through what might happen and work out what you will do. If you keep doing this you will work out a number of options on how to do things. These options make it easy because you have already worked out what you will do. Just use the best option at the time.

Read survival fiction. A lot of very clever people have worked out plans to do what you want to do. Copy them and adapt it to your own situation.

Like you say, step one is to do (insert action), if you don't need to do step one then go straight to step 2. Or maybe you can start at step 6 because steps 1 to 5 don't matter in that particular situation. Have lots of options.

You may have to walk back from the school with your boys if no other plan will work. That's OK. Driving would be better but you still get your boys so all good.

Work out what you will do then run with the plan that will give that result.
 

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Make sure you can get your children from the school if something happens. Some school districts are saying they will not release students to anyone including parents if a disaster strikes, but will instead transport them to a safe location.
If I still had kids and picking them up at school was necessary, the kids would be going home with me. Don't really care what the school district says. I'm betting there would be a lot of parents on site doing the same. After all, what are a bunch of lib/prog unarmed "teachers" going to do to stop parents.
 

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As a kid in the mountains we once had a snow storm that accumulated 6 feet in most places, some buildings could not take the weight and caved in but no one was able to leave their homes and the emergency services were just as stuck as every one else for about a week.
Another time the snow and rain turned o 3' of slush which the tractors could not move as well , every one was basiclly locked in and there were no mandates telling us what we could not do except the load of slush against our doors.
This is an area prone to year round power outages and so people learned to deal with it, most evry one had a wood or propane gas stove for heat. People planned ahead.
The only people that communicated had CBs or amature radio and these had the good sense to have a battery system to reli on for these events, and have a circle of freinds to turn to while every one else languished in ignorance. We would help out one another every thing from food to auto repairs and getting freed from the snow berms or from the side of a cliff. Every one had rope in their car and chains for the tires, spare food spare gas, and extra clothing and blankets. Common phrase was ,"I'm going to the store , do you need any thing?"
If some on was driving off the mountain we kept an ear out ,radions on in the event they had a problem or a road report of hazzards along the way or the good news they got to point B safely. No cell phones in those days, we had one another.
Radio is not much good if you dont' know the people your talking to.
The place you pan to run to survive may not welcome strangers.
There is a lot more to preparing than gathering stuff, or even skills.
One may or may not like to listen to other peoples conversations on the radio but it's understood it not private , just like here.
And establishing friends over the radio takes time and some interest, but in the long run, they are a valued source of information when things go down.
The more sources of information you have during an event the better you can react to it.
 

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I do nearer to farther, whether it is errands, yardwork or housework. Nearer is often easier and faster because of proximity. Farther eats up time for fewer tasks.

Guns. Kept mine in my trunk while at work. Close. Accessible. Needs a warrant to open. Legally not a work violation in Ohio. I keep mine there in a finger safe. Seconds to grab and open.

Family security. 12g pump with #4 buck & 00 buck. Great deterent value. Better defensive value indoors. My wife & kids hated the kick but where very practiced using it.

Kids. We had a plan. It changed as they got older and more aware.

They were raised to have redundencies.
 

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Having been through a few SHTF, it's rarely what you think it might be and even the most experienced preppers get caught with their pants down occasionally.
Murphy's law.
Slow and steady wins the race.
I joke with a buddy that if I am prepped for everything, I will end up being patient zero and dying before it even really starts.
 

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Put one vote down for what Mike said...

But how likely is a true TEOTWAWKI situation really? I have never seen one even with this Covid situation. My father never saw one and he lived through a World War and the Great Depression.

If some great event should actually happen take just a minute and ask yourself, "What is the smartest thing I could do right now?"

Possibly, you should do nothing or as little as possible. A lot of bad situations tend to sort themselves out after a week or so. Or, at least they come into better focus.

If an actual dirty bomb should go off or the water supply is really contaminated get the hell out of the area as soon as possible. That's the smartest thing you could do.

Not that it couldn't happen, but a true, actual TEOTWAWKI situation is very unlikely.
Not to be contrary or derail the thread, but I'd point out, everyone of a certain age HAS seen The End Of The World As We Know It. Just not in a bad way. The Internet and cell phones have caused massive change. Communication, information gathering, social conventions; this is NOT the world of the 1960's and 70's. It's like when electricity came to places for the first time, or the railroads and telegraphs (which usually came in together, for obvious reasons). Things change. Sometimes, they change big time.
 
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