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Over the years I speculated the next plague would travel quickly. I anticipated air travel to spread the virus all over the globe within a few days / weeks. Here we are several weeks into the Coronavirus outbreak and we have yet to see clusters outside of China. This is very surprising to what I expected.

Why did I expect faster transmission that what we are seeing?

Air travel
Millions of people packed into dense urban populations
Faster transmission rates

A lot of my speculation was based off studying outbreaks of the plague in Middle Ages Europe. Then again we are comparing a virus to bacteria. Of course someone is going to say the plague was transmitted by fleas, but the plague was also transmitted by cough droplets.

Maybe public health awareness is slowing down the transmission of the Coronavirus? Rather than infecting dozens of people, a single person is infecting one or two people? Then again, what about people on planes?

Maybe we are watching a slow burn with a virus that has a long incubation period?

To be honest we are still in the beginning phases of the Coronavirus outbreak. As such we still have a lot to learn. But this is not at all what I expected to see.

Then again, is China being honest with infections and death rates? If China is hiding the actual death rates, then yea, this may be on par with what I was expecting.
 

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reluctant sinner
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Hard to contain anything. Maybe its back into the snakes and bats or rats and dogs, perhaps misquotes, fleas or bed bugs.

Masks without eye protection doesn't seem like a good protection plan.

I think it is more media hype. Yes it kills people, so does measles, regular flu, car accidents, doctor's mistakes on the table, illegal drugs...
 

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It's not over yet and very likely just getting started. Has a decent R0 and has spread to 20+ countries.

I think your expectations vs reality are due to Hollywood hype. Pandemics are slow moving and last a while, Spanish flu lasted somewhere around 2 years and SARS was around for 18 months.

Like you noted, this virus has a fairly long incubation period and long testing time for results. If someone in NY has it, they're not going to confirm for 2 to 3 days. After that, it may be 2 weeks before someone they infected shows symptoms.

China was a prime example of the slow burn. A few weeks ago only a few hundred had it and it stayed in the hundreds for over a week. Now we're seeing confirmed infection numbers closing in on 4k per day. In Japan, 1 person on the cruise ship had it and disembarked at the end of January, now 61 are confirmed.

Currently it's not a huge concern, but it's something we're keeping an eye on. We're also adding a few extra items during normal shopping just in case.
 

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Grevcon 10
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This is insanely fast for a virus, and yes there's numerous clusters outside of China. This thing is seriously spreading faster than anyone who understands contagious diseases could dream of a virus spreading.

This has a long incubation period, very few of the cases are being successfully tracked, and the symptoms are hard to distinguish from other diseases until late in the infection, which takes a long time to die from. It's not going to go from 40 to 7 billion tested and confirmed infected over night no matter how fast it spreads.

I don't know how you thought the entire world was going to be able to chain-hug each other in a week. But this is as fast as viruses can spread. I know it feels like it's been a year, this outbreak has only been going on for about 2 weeks since the virus became uncontained and it's all over the globe exactly as you expected. There's absolutely nothing slow about what's going on.
 

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Relax. This is not it.

This is just a dry run. Consider it a good practice exercise in monitoring virus spread.

This is just a scenario.

Don't scenario prep.

This is very surprising to what I expected.
It shouldn't be. This is perfectly typical virus propagation. No surprises at all if you've ever studied virology.

When the surprises come THATS when I'll get worried. Right now its all by the book.

Don't let this be another Y2k moment when preppers run around and act like dumbasses. Everytime we do that it causes incaluable damage to the ideals of survivalism and just makes us look crazy and stupid.

Keep your head screwed on. Monitor the situation, react to REALITY, no hype.
 

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Wile E Coyote, Genius.
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Relax. This is not it.

This is just a dry run. Consider it a good practice exercise in monitoring virus spread.

This is just a scenario.

Don't scenario prep.



It shouldn't be. This is perfectly typical virus propagation. No surprises at all if you've ever studied virology.

When the surprises come THATS when I'll get worried. Right now its all by the book.

Don't let this be another Y2k moment when preppers run around and act like dumbasses. Everytime we do that it causes incaluable damage to the ideals of survivalism and just makes us look crazy and stupid.

Keep your head screwed on. Monitor the situation, react to REALITY, no hype.
Just curious what lead you to that conclusion?

Not throwing stones. Just asking.
 

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Mod Certified PITA!
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<snip>

Why did I expect faster transmission that what we are seeing?
TV and movies? In those you have to keep the audience interested, so you get time skips and bad story telling that make it seem the plague is spreading in no time. In real life things don't go that fast. Although this is going FAST. In a month this Coronavirus has gone from being a local Chinese problem to a global health emergency, and we appear to be on the cusp of a killer pandemic. Even as the public's perception is still that it's nothing to worry about.

This is bad.
 

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Just curious what lead you to that conclusion?

Not throwing stones. Just asking.
Death rate is low. Likely even lower by the time it reaches this country, if it ever does..it will be a moderately bad flu year event, not the next plague, not SHTF.

Still something to worry about, still something to guard against if and when it gets loose here...but like I said...we should treat this as a dry run. This is no Ebola, or Spanish flu...or smallpox.

Last week I was more concerned, but now we know a lot more about it than we did then.

The next plague is out there but this doesn't appear to be it.

My prediction is that it will peak under 500,000 infected and 10,000 dead. 99% percent of which will be in Asia. It will be endemic there for a couple of years before dying out.
 

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Death rate is low. ....
Let wait at least a couple weeks before we get to cocky. Diddly is known about the reality in chicomland. No good info from India and Africa. And in the US, while small # reported so far, the Chinese NY vacationers have only been home for a few days.

Meanwhile, the CDC is blithely uninterested as preferring to concentrate on important stuff like getting their "Gun Violence" studies going.
 

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Meanwhile, the CDC is blithely uninterested as preferring to concentrate on important stuff like getting their "Gun Violence" studies going.
I’m by no means a fan of bureaucracy, CDC included. However they do some things well.

Current expedited articles from CDC EID (Emerging Infectious Disease) are all related to the current situation.

Takes review, studying prior outbreaks (most of what is in current expedited EID).

Not flying off the handle responses to some click bait videos of a “van” with “bodies”. Somewhere.
 

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Death rate is low. Likely even lower by the time it reaches this country, if it ever does..it will be a moderately bad flu year event, not the next plague, not SHTF.

Still something to worry about, still something to guard against if and when it gets loose here...but like I said...we should treat this as a dry run. This is no Ebola, or Spanish flu...or smallpox.

Last week I was more concerned, but now we know a lot more about it than we did then.

The next plague is out there but this doesn't appear to be it.

My prediction is that it will peak under 500,000 infected and 10,000 dead. 99% percent of which will be in Asia. It will be endemic there for a couple of years before dying out.
I 'd feel much more comfortable with this if the CDC weren't acting so strangely.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Death rate is low. Likely even lower by the time it reaches this country, if it ever does..it will be a moderately bad flu year event, not the next plague, not SHTF.

Still something to worry about, still something to guard against if and when it gets loose here...but like I said...we should treat this as a dry run. This is no Ebola, or Spanish flu...or smallpox.

Last week I was more concerned, but now we know a lot more about it than we did then.

The next plague is out there but this doesn't appear to be it.

My prediction is that it will peak under 500,000 infected and 10,000 dead. 99% percent of which will be in Asia. It will be endemic there for a couple of years before dying out.
This is insane. At even a 2% mortality rate it will kill 3x as many people as every other cause of death combined.

And it is spread uncontained and untraced across the entire world.

This situation couldn't get any worse. This virus is behaving just like everyone's nightmare SHTF pandemic.

Why the hell are survivalists in such massive denial? You plan for this stuff all the time, and when it actually arrives you behave exactly like every sheep? I guess it's just a role playing hobby for a lot of people. They don't ever intend to do it for real.

Apparently people were literal about zombie apocalypse prepping. Anything less just isn't fun and they don't want to play.
 

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This is insane. At even a 2% mortality rate it will kill 3x as many people as every other cause of death combined.

And it is spread uncontained and untraced across the entire world.

This situation couldn't get any worse. This virus is behaving just like everyone's nightmare SHTF pandemic.

Why the hell are survivalists in such massive denial? You plan for this stuff all the time, and when it actually arrives you behave exactly like every sheep? I guess it's just a role playing hobby for a lot of people. They don't ever intend to do it for real.

Apparently people were literal about zombie apocalypse prepping. Anything less just isn't fun and they don't want to play.
Exactly.


Let me prepare for a SHTF event for half a lifetime and discuss what I would do daily on a survivalist forum, but when presented with a real SHTF event, jump into immediate denial and do nothing.


Sent from my Note 8 using Tapatalk
 

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Don't let this be another Y2k moment when preppers run around and act like dumbasses. Everytime we do that it causes incaluable damage to the ideals of survivalism and just makes us look crazy and stupid.

Keep your head screwed on. Monitor the situation, react to REALITY, no hype.
It's way to late for that sort of thinking on this site. Go down to the Firearms section, post that you want to use a .357 magnum revolver to shoot someone in the face for self protection and you'll get a couple hundred replies telling you to buy a AR with 100 mags and 2000 rounds of ammo as a minimum.

People here have years worth of food, multiple guns, palettes of ammo, gold, money, stashes, caches, bug out bags, bug out locations, ….. blah, blah, blah.

But being worried about something the Chinese seem to be terrified of, that's causing 100s of millions to be quarantined, ripples in the global economy and travel, closing borders everywhere, and has the CDC dressing in full containment suits to fly people to quarantine areas in the US and THAT'S what going to make us look crazy and stupid. :xeye:

Color me confused.
 

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This is insane. At even a 2% mortality rate it will kill 3x as many people as every other cause of death combined.

And it is spread uncontained and untraced across the entire world.

This situation couldn't get any worse. This virus is behaving just like everyone's nightmare SHTF pandemic.

Why the hell are survivalists in such massive denial? You plan for this stuff all the time, and when it actually arrives you behave exactly like every sheep? I guess it's just a role playing hobby for a lot of people. They don't ever intend to do it for real.

Apparently people were literal about zombie apocalypse prepping. Anything less just isn't fun and they don't want to play.
It's way to late for that sort of thinking on this site. Go down to the Firearms section, post that you want to use a .357 magnum revolver to shoot someone in the face for self protection and you'll get a couple hundred replies telling you to buy a AR with 100 mags and 2000 rounds of ammo as a minimum.

People here have years worth of food, multiple guns, palettes of ammo, gold, money, stashes, caches, bug out bags, bug out locations, ….. blah, blah, blah.

But being worried about something the Chinese seem to be terrified of, that's causing 100s of millions to be quarantined, ripples in the global economy and travel, closing borders everywhere, and has the CDC dressing in full containment suits to fly people to quarantine areas in the US and THAT'S what going to make us look crazy and stupid. :xeye:

Color me confused.
Colt, I've been scouring the Internet since this started. I haven't been able to find one single confirmed case of anyone not of Asian decent to become infected with this. Plenty of people of Asian decent that are citizens of the USA or students here who were visiting China and returned or fled here but not one that wasn't Asian. I've been keeping up with the reports and preping but until I see someone Not of Asian decent become infected by casual exposure I have a hard time becoming a Chicken Little.
 
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