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How prepared are you for a large CME / Carrington Event?

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How many folks here are prepared or thought about such an event?
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How prepared can anyone be? It'll be a sh*tshow no matter what.

I'm better prepared than 99 percent of the population, and I tend to doubt it will matter much.

That said, I think the key to such an event, if one is to have any chance of surviving it, is to make it past the first 45 days or so.

Here's my guess about what would happen (and it will vary by location):

For the first 48 hours, people will hunker down hoping that the power will come back on.

By the end of the first week, chaos will reign; might even start by the 3rd day. People will be panicked to find sources of clean water, and any kind of food. Some will figure out they can purify water by boiling it (if they can find fuel), and some by using chlorine.

By the end of the second week, most local fauna will be hunted out. Our local deer population, which herd numbers about 22, will be decimated. They're pretty tame (they walk through our yard all the time), so they'll be easy pickings. That may stave off some panic, but people still will be very distraught. We might see a significant number of deaths by then, from dying of thirst, violence, and for those who depend on electricity to stay alive, a lack of sufficient services to sustain them. How much thirst will be a problem depends on the local sources of water. Upper midwest? Maybe ok. Around the great lakes? Also maybe OK. Desert southwest of the US? Problem.

Those dead people will be an issue. Most local places will likely figure out a location to take the dead bodies, but burying them will obviously be a problem. Hauling bodies will be an issue with few or no working vehicles.

By the end of the third week, we'll see a lot of people gone. We'll also see the beginnings of people on psychotropic drugs whose medications are running out, and there's no resupply. Paranoia, depression, crazy violence--these are all likely consequences, especially with the enormous stress from just trying to survive.

One would also, in many places, expect roving gangs trying to "live off the land" as they go through houses looking for food and water. Many of the deaths noted above will come from gunshot wounds and bow and arrow.

By the end of 30 days, death will be rampant. People will be eating whatever they can get their hands on. It depends on when such an event would happen--if in the early fall, then local crops could mitigate hunger for a time. Apples, berries, sweet corn--these would help. If in the dead of winter, there would be severe problems heating places up north. People would crowd together in dwellings just to share heat.

By the end of 45 days, there will be enough death that many of the threats from the first 30 days will no longer exist. In some cases, people may band together to provide both security and shared sustenance. Those with mechanisms to purify water will be much ahead of others.

And after that? New meaning will be given to "living off the land." It'll truly be survivalism. Those with much food stored will be way ahead, provided they can keep it and defend against others who will do anything in desperation to get it.

No internet. No electricity. No cell service. No natural gas. No deliveries of fuel oil. No furnaces work, because no electricity.

Next to a widespread nuclear war, in the pantheon of disasters this is the worst scenario I can imagine.
First a side note.
My son in law is a super trained car mechanic with an engineering background. He said that modern cars are super insulated against electromagnetic interference because of all of the computers in them so he believes that most cars will still run after a CME or EMP.

In Rural areas like where I live power outages of 1-6 days are not uncommon. Most people have generators that can run the wells and 3-10 days worth of gasoline. When the grid goes down normal life continues with most people going into work and many of the stores and businesses also have generators. Most homes have propane for cooking and hot water along with a bit of extra food.

With most cars able to run I suspect that the primary problem with a long term grid down event would be people from urban areas "running to the hills" and overwhelming the more rural areas.
 

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How scared do you want to be?


 

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First a side note.
My son in law is a super trained car mechanic with an engineering background. He said that modern cars are super insulated against electromagnetic interference because of all of the computers in them so he believes that most cars will still run after a CME or EMP.

In Rural areas like where I live power outages of 1-6 days are not uncommon. Most people have generators that can run the wells and 3-10 days worth of gasoline. When the grid goes down normal life continues with most people going into work and many of the stores and businesses also have generators. Most homes have propane for cooking and hot water along with a bit of extra food.

With most cars able to run I suspect that the primary problem with a long term grid down event would be people from urban areas "running to the hills" and overwhelming the more rural areas.
My concern isn’t the car specifically but the multitude of chips in the car. Ask your mechanic son if he is confident that all the chips can survive an EMP surge cuz if only one or a few fry then the car is not repairable by most people. Really interested in his thoughts.
 

· Dirt Dweller
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I have a three tier electric system. First is grid power. Second a generac backup system. Thirdly a moderately sized solar system. I recently installed a cutoff so I can hook up a small portable generator for needed systems.
I realize my first three tiers will be affected to greater or lesser degrees by a large EMP type event but how about the fourth tier. How do I need to store the smaller backup Ginny to keep it safe? Or will it not be affected if it’s in the box and not hooked up so to speak?
I can’t help you with the EMP burning out you electrical systems but your longer term problem is , how will you run it when you are out of fuel? Gas stations need electricity to pump gas. Eventually important things like gas stations will be taken over by government agents or “armed citizens.” The armed unprepared will see thats a source for food and equipment.
 

· reluctant sinner
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If you can generate shaft work then the old generators not the modern alternators will likely continue work - far more robust tho far less efficient.

I sure the gubernment has shielded stuff, consumer items pot luck IMHO.

Yea your car might run but if the grid is down so is the fuel supply to your car and your belly.

Faraday Cage at least a small photovoaltic system and some Eneloops and a charger, LED lights, maybe a radio and plus tablets with lots of books, music, and vids.
 

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I can’t help you with the EMP burning out you electrical systems but your longer term problem is , how will you run it when you are out of fuel? Gas stations need electricity to pump gas. Eventually important things like gas stations will be taken over by government agents or “armed citizens.” The armed unprepared will see thats a source for food and equipment.
Generator system is run off of large dedicated propane tank and if it survives an EMP I plan ononly runn8ng for an hour or two a week. Based on current usage I calculate one to two years of propane. The small backup to the backup to the backup will be multi fuel and I have a fair amount of fuel put back for it already.
im more concerned about the number of chips in some of the newer generators and whether I need to protect them if the generator is in storage and not hooked to anything.
 

· NRA Life 1971
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To the OP, no, but it would be better in our situation if the event happened in the colder part of the year where we could utilize the outdoor temps for short term refrigeration. Giving us more time to dehydrate meats etc.
Plenty of wood for heat but would not look forward to manual cordwood processing.
The 60 or so gallons of gas we stock, used sporadically, would allow (I hope) for an easier transition.
 

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To the OP, no, but it would be better in our situation if the event happened in the colder part of the year where we could utilize the outdoor temps for short term refrigeration. Giving us more time to dehydrate meats etc.
Plenty of wood for heat but would not look forward to manual cordwood processing.
The 60 or so gallons of gas we stock, used sporadically, would allow (I hope) for an easier transition.
I have often posted that the most optimal time for enhancing survival is for SHFT to hit in late November. For the reason you point out, but also the winter weather would complicate the hoards from the population centers from being able to make it all the way out to where I live.
 

· NRA Life 1971
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It would only seem logical that the unprepared would attempt to migrate to warmer climes if they are not already there.
It would be less stressful being concerned with food, water and security while eliminating the heating requirements of their Norther brethern.
 

· "eleutheromaniac"
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"AlaskaJohn"
Plus, if they could somehow get there, they soon realize they have never owned a single pair of snowshoes, if they did odds are they did not bring them, and if they have any brains at all they will start yelling at the top of their lungs for help. And you can release the thundering pack of blood thirsty beagles.
 

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The ancient Russians (1950s?) had data suggesting 38,000 volts developed on a 1000 mile long power line that was about 1000 miles from a nuke blast. Dividing it down implies a 38 volt spike per mile of "antenna" at 1000 mile distance. The inverse square law implies 3800 volts per mile, at 100 miles from the blast. At 10 miles it's 380,000 volts per mile or 76 volts per foot. Very rough numbers, but a guess. Might be 10 times worse or better today with different weapons. Can't verify by test.
Has anyone ever seen any estimates for CMDs? I know part of the Canadian grid was down for a few months, maybe 20 years ago. Was any hand held equipment affected? How did the Canadian event compare to Carrington?
 

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The ancient Russians (1950s?) had data suggesting 38,000 volts developed on a 1000 mile long power line that was about 1000 miles from a nuke blast. Dividing it down implies a 38 volt spike per mile of "antenna" at 1000 mile distance. The inverse square law implies 3800 volts per mile, at 100 miles from the blast. At 10 miles it's 380,000 volts per mile or 76 volts per foot. Very rough numbers, but a guess. Might be 10 times worse or better today with different weapons. Can't verify by test.
Has anyone ever seen any estimates for CMDs? I know part of the Canadian grid was down for a few months, maybe 20 years ago. Was any hand held equipment affected? How did the Canadian event compare to Carrington?
Inverse square law doest work for HEMP. The blast radiates gammas, they knock electrons free from air molecules., the moving electrons are the source of EMP. Electrons recombine when they hit a second atom ( typically as the air gets thicker.) So the source of the EMP isn’t the height of burst over some points, it’s the outer fringes of the atmosphere over most of the country ( concentrated in the 100 miles or so around the blast)

The inverse square law applies in the far field of the source- that would be outer space- or over the horizon on earth.
 

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I have 70 SPF sunscreen.
Sweet Maui Jim sunglasses too.
With earth's defenses dropping lower and lower everyday.
No worrying here...
Appears as though we have exited current solar cycle where risk is high.
Will be allowed to live until the 2030s.

True rulers of the world think otherwise in regards to waiting for population 'adjustment'.
 

· reluctant sinner
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I think the earth protective magnet field which is weakening, will be recharge by a direct hit of a big CME - and it's cyclic as in happened before many times. Smaller hits result in the pole shifts as documented in the mid Atlantic rift lava flows.


A natural great reset is coming again (#6 or #7). The gubernment's know it - that's why they can print money without worry - to buy/build stuff for them because when it happens, they will not have to repay the debt.
 

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Inverse square law doest work for HEMP. The blast radiates gammas, they knock electrons free from air molecules., the moving electrons are the source of EMP. Electrons recombine when they hit a second atom ( typically as the air gets thicker.) So the source of the EMP isn’t the height of burst over some points, it’s the outer fringes of the atmosphere over most of the country ( concentrated in the 100 miles or so around the blast)

The inverse square law applies in the far field of the source- that would be outer space- or over the horizon on earth.
Interesting. My previous understanding was that the force of the blast caused water molecules to rotate partially as they were forced away from the detonation. They would orient such that the two H atoms would lead, and the O would trail. This initial rotation from random to aligned by the blast would create a pulse with rise times in the picosecond range.
Where can I find an authoritative source for EMP info. Source mechanism, amplitude, rise times and ring decay rates are of interest.
Similarly for solar CMDs.
 

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Interesting. My previous understanding was that the force of the blast caused water molecules to rotate partially as they were forced away from the detonation. They would orient such that the two H atoms would lead, and the O would trail. This initial rotation from random to aligned by the blast would create a pulse with rise times in the picosecond range.
Where can I find an authoritative source for EMP info. Source mechanism, amplitude, rise times and ring decay rates are of interest.
Similarly for solar CMDs.
Somebody majorly lied. A strategic EMP attack would require a high altitude burst- there simply aren’t any water molecules up there. Plus moving water molecules don’t generate electromagnetic fields.

Forgetting EMP, if you want near field vs transition region vs far field google see FCC OET 65. It authoritative, practical, and not technical. OET 65. There are other definitions in antenna textbooks. Basically in far field, the entire source (usually an antenna) looks like ( is fairly indistinguishable from) a point source.

Best EMP data is with the Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). It’s not a basic explanation, but if you want to see actual data, it’s the best source. My internet is flaky- here is one- DTRA HOB

Here’s a couple of basic references-
CISA
EMP Commision
DHS EMP and GMD- see appendix
DNA- probably best single source on EMP

Note, these references ( at least for the first 3) don’t focus on source region EMP- the EMP from a air or ground bust- which is mostly only of interest to hardened facilities, or any sort of terrestrial EMP weapon- which is severely limited by the inverse square relationship.

I have no idea what ring decay rates are. But there is a lot of made up science around EMP in the prepper community.
 

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WHY.......??? Humans lived in Alaska 48,000 years before electric became a common "NEED" for survival or comfort.
And those who are living with NO outside sources of fuel, spare parts, clothing, etc. will still continue to live their lives as they are. Just like 48,000 years ago.

Such people constitute what, .01 percent of the population? The rest of us who have grown to depend on light, heat, fuel, clothing, food, jobs, etc. etc. etc. will find it tough going.

To say the least.
 

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My concern isn’t the car specifically but the multitude of chips in the car. Ask your mechanic son if he is confident that all the chips can survive an EMP surge cuz if only one or a few fry then the car is not repairable by most people. Really interested in his thoughts.
The chips in modern cars are encased in an electrostatic infused plastic.
I forget the exact science behind it but if I remember correctly the E1 (sometimes referred as H1) wave which travels the furthest and like a radio antenna needs at least 400 yds of wire stretched out to catch the full energy pulse. E1 is the wave that would blow the transformers nation wide with all of the long wires. The E3 wave is the wave that would fry shorter wire length's, Like 10" or less but the E3 wave is shorter traveling, somewhere around 150 miles. The E3 level wave would fry a laptop computer but only if the laptop was within about 150 miles of the EMP bomb blast and not plugged in. The E2 wave is somewhere in the middle as far as distance and grid destruction goes.

So if a single EMP blew over Liberal Kansas (center of the US) basically no unprotected electronic within 150 miles would work. Further away smaller things like cars and non-grid tied solar, hydro or wind systems are much more likely to work.

Please understand that I am not trained in this science. But I've spent at least 10 years reading up on the subject and have at least a basic knowledge of electracy and voltage spikes, I used to design small hydro-electric and wind turbines.
I've seen several videos and read about several "EMP" tests. Two of the tests used EMP generators on cars. On one test both car engines died. One car would not restart. The other test car restarted but a few things like the electric windows no longer worked but that car still would drive just fine.

Research " Starfish Prime Test ". The cars in Hawai still ran but the lights were out
 

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The chips in modern cars are encased in an electrostatic infused plastic.
I forget the exact science behind it but if I remember correctly the E1 (sometimes referred as H1) wave which travels the furthest and like a radio antenna needs at least 400 yds of wire stretched out to catch the full energy pulse. E1 is the wave that would blow the transformers nation wide with all of the long wires. The E3 wave is the wave that would fry shorter wire length's, Like 10" or less but the E3 wave is shorter traveling, somewhere around 150 miles. The E3 level wave would fry a laptop computer but only if the laptop was within about 150 miles of the EMP bomb blast and not plugged in. The E2 wave is somewhere in the middle as far as distance and grid destruction goes.

So if a single EMP blew over Liberal Kansas (center of the US) basically no unprotected electronic within 150 miles would work. Further away smaller things like cars and non-grid tied solar, hydro or wind systems are much more likely to work.

Please understand that I am not trained in this science. But I've spent at least 10 years reading up on the subject and have at least a basic knowledge of electracy and voltage spikes, I used to design small hydro-electric and wind turbines.
I've seen several videos and read about several "EMP" tests. Two of the tests used EMP generators on cars. On one test both car engines died. One car would not restart. The other test car restarted but a few things like the electric windows no longer worked but that car still would drive just fine.

Research " Starfish Prime Test ". The cars in Hawai still ran but the lights were out
Virtually nothing you say above makes sense. What the hell is electrostatic infused plastic? No one wants to mix chips and static electricity. How do you keep the static electricity “infused” in a plastic chip.
 
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