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Scarred for life...
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
It might interest you to know that up until about 1820, there were about 15 to 18 volcanic eruptions per year all over the world.

This number remained steady for several hundred years up until around 1820, when it began to rise.

By World War One, the average number of eruptions had reached 40, more than twice their average over the previous 400 years.

By the start of the Korean War, it was about 60.

The average for the past two decades or so has been between 60 and 70 eruptions per year.

The USGS explains that volcanic activity is not increasing however. They say that reporting of volcanic eruptions has increased and the actual number of eruptions has remained steady at @65 a year for thousands of years.

YEAH RIGHT.



Well, since 1694, there have been exactly 155 Large Holocene Eruptions.

A Large Holocene Eruption is a major volcanic eruption that ejects at least 0.1 square kilometer of ash and debris into the atmosphere.

Large Holocene Eruptions are so large they cannot be hidden. Even in areas where no people witnessed an eruption, they can still accurately date an eruption and the magnitude of that eruption by studying the ash.

In the 18th century the Earth experienced 35 Large Holocene Eruptions or an average of one every 2.8 years.

In the 19th century there were 43 Large Holocene Eruptions or an average of one every 2.3 years.

In the 20th century there were 67 Large Holocene Eruptions or an average of one every 1.4 years.

So far in the 21st century there have been 10 Large Holocene Eruptions or an average of one every year.

Using their own date it is easy to see that large eruptions have increased almost 300% since 1700. This cannot be explained away as anything other than the Earth is progressively getting more geologically active.

It might also interest you to know that the Yellowstone Caldera has been rising at about 3 inches per year over the last few decades, which is more than 3 times more than it rose on average over the past 300 years.

I would be interested to know how many large earthquakes there have been on average over the past 300 years.

Id be willing to bet that they too have increased is number and intensity as well.



Sources...

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/

http://www.volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?faq=06

http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm
 

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Spunky Curmudgeon
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Make sure your shelter can sustain the weight of a few dozen feet of ash. One of the things that killed Romans at Pompeii and Herculenum (sp?) is the roofs collapsing. If you really think Yellowstone is about to go, FORTIFY one part of your house to support 10 semi trucks.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Make sure your shelter can sustain the weight of a few dozen feet of ash. One of the things that killed Romans at Pompeii and Herculenum (sp?) is the roofs collapsing. If you really think Yellowstone is about to go, FORTIFY one part of your house to support 10 semi trucks.


It wont help.

If Yellowstone has another full scale eruption which is due actually (one every 640,000 years for the past 4 or 5 million years), it will throw around 250 cubic miles of ash and debris into the air, or about 4 times more ash that the eruption of Krakatoa in 1815.

That's the MINIMUM. It could be as much as 1900 cubic miles of ash.

That much ash is unimaginable to me.
 

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Spunky Curmudgeon
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If you can get air, and survive the actual ash fall, you'll have a small chance of walking out. But if your house collapses you won't have any. Like I said in another thread, I'm a fighter in that sense. Death will take me clawing and screaming. Krakatoa is actually a tiny part of Toba. If you look at Krakatoa, however, it didn't bury all the neighboring islands in ash that was impossible to survive. Those who got past the pyroclastic flow had a good chance of surviving.

Even a few hundred miles away from Yellowstone if you can get past the eruption and your structure survives the ash fall, AND you can dig yourself out, you have a chance of making it if you have supplies and will to live. That's just my opinion, but as long as I believe I have a chance, it's worth the fight. I always believe I have at least a small chance. :)
 
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If you can get air, and survive the actual ash fall, you'll have a small chance of walking out. But if your house collapses you won't have any. Like I said in another thread, I'm a fighter in that sense. Death will take me clawing and screaming. Krakatoa is actually a tiny part of Toba. If you look at Krakatoa, however, it didn't bury all the neighboring islands in ash that was impossible to survive. Those who got past the pyroclastic flow had a good chance of surviving.

Even a few hundred miles away from Yellowstone if you can get past the eruption and your structure survives the ash fall, AND you can dig yourself out, you have a chance of making it if you have supplies and will to live. That's just my opinion, but as long as I believe I have a chance, it's worth the fight. I always believe I have at least a small chance. :)
The problem is, once you crawl out, then what? My concern is never the eruption, or the nuclear explosion, etc., because those are either going to kill you outright, or they aren't. Sure, you can be trapped in rubble, but there's not much you can do about getting into that point to begin with, reinforced shelter or not.
My concern, if Yellowstone blows, is..... ok, you survive the explosion, have supplies to survive, and get out.
Now what?
What happens when your supplies run out?
There's probably not going to be a supermarket to go to to stock up, or hell, there might not even be game to hunt, or fish to eat. Much of what was not sheltered is probably gone, and even animals that DID survive will starve.
Now what?
THIS is my concern. Supplies can only last you so long, you know?
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
If you can get air, and survive the actual ash fall, you'll have a small chance of walking out. But if your house collapses you won't have any. Like I said in another thread, I'm a fighter in that sense. Death will take me clawing and screaming. Krakatoa is actually a tiny part of Toba. If you look at Krakatoa, however, it didn't bury all the neighboring islands in ash that was impossible to survive. Those who got past the pyroclastic flow had a good chance of surviving.

Even a few hundred miles away from Yellowstone if you can get past the eruption and your structure survives the ash fall, AND you can dig yourself out, you have a chance of making it if you have supplies and will to live. That's just my opinion, but as long as I believe I have a chance, it's worth the fight. I always believe I have at least a small chance. :)

250 cubic miles of ash would bury most of the US in anywhere from several feet to ash several hundred feet deep... The average depth over the whole of the continental US would be around 25 feet deep.

Can you imagine 1900 cubic miles of ash? That would be an average of 200 feet deep. Imagine Chicago buried under an ash layer a mile deep...

There would be no air...nothing to breathe.

This stuff would set up like concrete in most places within hours.

Put it like this. A full scale nuclear war would be easier to survive. Imagine every nuclear bomb ever made being used on the USA at once, and multiply that by three for the worst case scenario.

Please check my math... Ive done this several times and I'm just amazed at what the worst case scenario would do.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Keep seeing everyone saying "miles". Do we mean kilometers? See the image I posted above, that seems to make more sense to me.
No I converted kilometers to miles...

2500 cubic kilometers of ash equals 1550 cubic miles of ash right?

Ive always read that the ash would fall in a ellipse from Idaho east and not just over the western US.... maybe I heard wrong?
 

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Spunky Curmudgeon
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No, that's not right. You're confusing cubic miles with something else, I think.

Wyoming is 97015 square miles. 1900 cubic miles would bury Wyoming to an even depth of 103 feet all around. You're not going to have hundreds of feet anywhere except near the actual crater. Even a foot of ash is catastrophic, I agree, but after the fallout is all gone if you have a tractor you can clear off a foot of ash to get to topsoil to grow food. That's IF you survive the cold weather that is going to be visiting you for several years after the eruption. I think if you can't find three years of food without growing anything, you're going to die.

Alternatively, you can walk out and be a refugee after your stores are consumed to the point where you have to walk out with what you have left.

My math for your perusal: 103 feet depth x 97015 square miles x 5280 = 1900 cubic miles.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
No, that's not right. You're confusing cubic miles with something else, I think.

Wyoming is 97015 square miles. 1900 cubic miles would bury Wyoming to an even depth of 103 feet all around. You're not going to have hundreds of feet anywhere except near the actual crater. Even a foot of ash is catastrophic, I agree, but after the fallout is all gone if you have a tractor you can clear off a foot of ash to get to topsoil to grow food. That's IF you survive the cold weather that is going to be visiting you for several years after the eruption. I think if you can't find three years of food without growing anything, you're going to die.

Alternatively, you can walk out and be a refugee after your stores are consumed to the point where you have to walk out with what you have left.


See I admit when I am wrong.

Thank you for correcting my math....lol
 

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Spunky Curmudgeon
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I think we can all agree, though. It will SUCK to have to work to survive that.
 

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No, that's not right. You're confusing cubic miles with something else, I think.

Wyoming is 97015 square miles. 1900 cubic miles would bury Wyoming to an even depth of 103 feet all around. You're not going to have hundreds of feet anywhere except near the actual crater. Even a foot of ash is catastrophic, I agree, but after the fallout is all gone if you have a tractor you can clear off a foot of ash to get to topsoil to grow food. That's IF you survive the cold weather that is going to be visiting you for several years after the eruption. I think if you can't find three years of food without growing anything, you're going to die.

Alternatively, you can walk out and be a refugee after your stores are consumed to the point where you have to walk out with what you have left.

My math for your perusal: 103 feet depth x 97015 square miles x 5280 = 1900 cubic miles.
You can plow that ash into the soil, and it will make it much more fertile. The reason that things grow so well in Southeastern Idaho is because it is old volcanic flows and ash falls.
 
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