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Post SHTF, how long do you think it would take for the availability of basic supplies to start reappearing? If you already live in a rural area where there are few stores now, when could you expect them to begin getting the basics? Candles, Flower, Sugar Toilet paper, Dog food, Batteries, ect….ect… you name it.

Sorry I should have specified! I was thinking a catastrophic economic collapse type scenario. We are and have always been prepared, just a way of life out here. But at some point I think all of us will start needing basics. (During a long term situation) Just a food for thought conversation is all I’m attempting.
 

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Welcome to the rice field
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Far too hypothetical to venture a guess. Sorry. The one thing I will say is that trade never stops completely. There's always trade in some form. What, when, where, how? Who knows...
 

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Capability, not scenarios
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How deep and catastrophic do you think the SHTF event will be?

Way too many variables.

I imagine you're looking at some kind of timeline in order to evaluate how much prepping you need to do, but the range of possible events goes from a weekend without power after a big storm, to years and years, possibly no recovery in your lifetime.

Your guess is as good as anyone else's.
 
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I hate everyone equally.
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Post SHTF, how long do you think it would take for the availability of basic supplies to start reappearing? If you already live in a rural area where there are few stores now, when could you expect them to begin getting the basics? Candles, Flower, Sugar Toilet paper, Dog food, Batteries, ect….ect… you name it.
Not sure I would want sugar toilet paper. It might attract ants. :D:
 

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Try to plan on at least one year. you never know for sure as to how long or
what could happen.....So the general idea put out by other preppers say at least a year.........
 

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Live Secret, Live Happy
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The big issue is diesel fuel. If the refineries are not able to produce or ship it, the semis can not move and nothing gets delivered.

Let's take a specific area and a specific O-**** moment. Big quake in southern California. The quake ruptures the three parallel fault lines from Mexicalli, to Passo Robles. Suddenly 10% of US oil refining is shut down for 4-5 years n our west coast ports are out of action for months.

If you are supplied from that area, or trucks need the fuel from there, or they divert your food and TP to southern California instead of delivering it to you, you are in trouble. For months at least. More likely years.

Pick out several potential crisis events and figure the local, regional, and national impacts and how that would affect you.
 

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You need to give a timeline to your question .......

Are we talking about the current wishy washy flopping Obama administration or the new Republican administration?
 

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Prepared Firebird
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Shawn........did you read your own original post????

"Catastrophic economic scenario" was the phrase you used. With this in mind........WHY would you think ANYONE could tell you "when" the basic supply line that now exists would return to be available to you.

The present system is so fragile that just about any combination of events could smash it beyond repair. Short answer to your question is this: It isn't coming back. And no one has any idea what will take its' place.......if anything.

There would be no need for prepping, if we could all rely on the basic supply system returning to "normal"......would there??
 

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An Economic collapse is bad but not TEOTWAWKI. Means of production still exists, farm can still produce. Government can still mobilize transportation.

Now if you are talking WWIII, EMP, Pandemic, you'll be talking years. IMHO TSHTF when the electric grid goes down and doesn't come back up. EMP stops Transportation of goods/food,production. Pandemic takes out those who run the things we need ie.utilities ect.

Economic collapse is bad, very bad, but the other scenarios are hell on earth.
 

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The biggest problem with supplies coming back is transportation. It used to be that at least half of what you consumed was produced within a few hundred miles of you. However, the USA has lost most of it's manufacturing. 90% of what we consume is at least partially imported. Plan that most of what's in your house would have to last you for years... if not because of availability, then because of demand causing jacked up prices.

The rest of it would simply be a geographic issue. What do you live near? If you live in Kansas, flour would be first to come back. If you live in Wisconsin, look for basic dairy and paper products faster than elsewhere. If you live near the coast, look to eat a lot of seafood. Outside of urban centers, California would bounce back quickly if they could keep the irrigation flowing. If not, they are toast.
 

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You ask an extremely complicated question as if there's a simple answer. There are many possibilities to consider. First off, if production shut down because of the economy, it isn't going to start back up until the economy improves. And with production shut down, what is causing it to improve?

Then consider just a few of the factors. Was there a die off or mass migration? If so, factories may have to train a new work force. Is there some form of communication? If not, how does the factory get the word out that it's hiring, etc? If trucks aren't running, there's no way to get goods to consumers. If trucks are still running, then production couldn't have shut down or they'd have nothing to carry.

There is no way to predict how long it'd take for production to start back up again. We don't really even have a historic precedent to study. Other countries have gone through economic collapses, but they didn't stop producing because of it.
 

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Farms cant produce if there is no money to invest in planting crops, transportation cant roll of there is no fuel to power the trains and busses. There is no power if the power company cant get fuel to the generating station. Production cant happen if companies cant buy raw materials or get raw materials to their door. A total economic collapse can and will impact all of these things.
As far as the electic grid, you are absolutely right. If it gets knocked down, it will take at least weeks to months to get it back on line and that is if the integrity of the grid has not been too messed up.

Electrical failure:
I can outline a scenerio that would or could knock out the grid for a prolonged period of time.
First an event knocks out a major substation. There is still power being generated but it is being pumped into a broken system. This power has to go somewhere. As the system backfeeds trying to find someplace to go, it trips smaller substations to protect the transformers and switchgear. Now there is more unused power on the grid. As this cascades back to the generating stations the stations themselves go off line due to backfeed. When a generating station goes off line they go to emergency power dump. While the power generating station absorbs the electical power, the power generated by the boilers blow through the emergency vents. The boilers or the nuclear reactors shut down so they no longer produce power to the generators. Once this happens the generating station is dead in the water. The entire station has to be completely shut down and return to a dead standstill and all boilers have to return to room temp.
Once this happens you have to go out and fix the transmission equipment because the power has to be able to go somewhere if you bring the generating station on line. While that is being done the boilers are restarted but it can be up to 4 or 5 days before they are up to temp depending on size and fuel source. Nuke plants could take longer. Then, once you have a network reestablished and the plants are coming back on line you have to re-energize the system. The more rural you are, the longer it will take to get power to you. Areas of highest demand will get turned on first but even then it may take many days to fully restore power to them as small issues pop up while switching areas back on line. All in all you can be looking at 1-3 weeks to get power back. I know during the NYC power outage of 2003 that lasted a couple days there were huge problems and that was a small event by power distribution standards.
My father worked for independent System Operators of New York (ISO NY) and this is the exact scenerio they have been training for and trying to plan for for many years now. It is of HUGE concern with them as the different utilities will not make the capital expenditures needed to upgrade the system to prevent this. As of right now their basic philosophy is it is not a matter of if it will happen it is a matter of when. Basically the way the network is interconnected you could see power out from the carolinas to Maine and from the coast to as far in as Ohio. The only thing that can prevent it is Billions of $ of investment on the overall grid and right now that is NOT happening.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
I was trying to bring the discuton in the direction of what evryones thoughts were on what itmes might be available first and where. Just looking to see others opinions. I don’t think everything will be hunky-dory in any specified time period, I am only asking opinion based on what people know goes on in there area. I would have to imagine that we as a socity would activily attempt to put things back together as best we could with whatever resources were available. I was just wondering what supplies would be easiest to start producing again and what items might be capable of being produced locally to any given area.
 

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The best way to answer that would be to look local. Things to return quickly would be what you see in farmers markets, craft fairs, and flea markets.
Anything you get from the big box stores or imports wont be around for a long time.
 

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You ask a great question. In a total collapse that hinders transportation of goods it could actually take months for all basic supplies to be flowing again. Our nation depends on TRUCKS to receive every item you use. If a scenario happens that destroys major highways and interstates, destroys fuel storage, or takes the grid down, the products we depend on every single day would simply come in at a trickle. In rural areas you might see something along the lines of "rolling stores" come into use again, supplying a few essentials such as flour, sugar, chickens, and other basics.
 

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It's a personal belief thing. Some people believe in localized small disasters only. Some believe in large worldwide catastrophes with society for all practical purposes still viable. And still others believe in complete collapse, book of Eli, postman, mad max scenarios. There's a ton of possibilities and with those goes a ton of what If's. After watching rise of the apes and learning that there has been genetic testing of apes/ humans, now that's going to be a new what if on these boards someday.

You have to decide which ones you believe in and prep the best you can for those, but leave your mind open for the others.
 

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The supplies never run out they just get where people cant afford them.
Someone always will have something stashed.
The problem is finding what they need in exchange.
 

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I have enough food for a few years. Im not taking any chances.

Im not going to pin my hopes on a food truck coming through. I'll leave that worrying to the sheep that failed to prepare in the first place.

This goes for other supplies as well, and then some for barter use.
 
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