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Gettin' there
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
**I did a search and went through 8 pages and didn't see this posted. If this needs to be moved to another area, please move**

If you have not seen this, I highly advise you to watch it.

I just watched this docu on the H5N1 and it is pure scariness. THIS is the reason I started prepping a year ago. THIS is why I believe God told me to get ready.
I believe this docu is fairly new since they quote some items from 2005.

If you are an animal lover, get the tissue ready for the first 15 mins. of this series.
I really like the couple in the second part who live in Florida. They even made sure their little doggy had preps! Total running time 1 hr 30 mins.

http://www.guba.com/watch/3000048673

http://www.guba.com/watch/3000048729

http://www.guba.com/watch/3000048917


<Recommend that when you click each link, PAUSE it for about 5 mins. and allow to load so you can watch it without all the buffering>

If the economy, war or anything else doesn't get people's attention, this should!
 

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Preparing...
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I don't get why people make such a big deal about bird flu.
It is near impossible for the virus to mutate to harm humans. (It's more than 1 in a million chance of it becoming dangerous to humans from what i have seen)

IMO there are much worse things that could harm you i don't think bird flu is worth worrying about.

(But i am sure everyone is going to disagree)
 

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Just use a 2x4
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I have a friend who is a research scientist, and this is his thing. He says it's virtually impossible for the virus to mutate the RIGHT way four or five times in order for it to develop to fit the receptors for humans.

In his opinion, the bird flu is nothing to worry about.
 

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I drink your milkshake!
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1,021 Posts
I have several friends and acquaintances who are doctorate level researchers in human genetics and molecular biology for a major west coast university. Their general consensus is learn how to sail....because when the next global pandemic hits, no matter what it is its going to be particularly nasty.
 

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Grouchy Infidel
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"But evidence from a recent reconstruction of the virus suggests that it jumped directly from birds to humans, without traveling through swine."

It happened before, 50 to 100 million dead as a result, that's known dead anyway.

While we can "think" the odds are too high and it "will never happen" I'm pretty sure that the several known cases of human infection should be light enough to see it is a possibility.




Spanish flu
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was a virus.

category 5 influenza pandemic that started in the United States, appeared in West Africa and France and then spread to nearly every part of the globe. It was caused by an unusually severe and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Many of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients.

The Spanish flu pandemic came in three waves[1] lasting from March 1918 to June 1920,[2] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. While older estimates put the number of killed at 40–50 million people, current estimates are that 50 million to 100 million people worldwide died, possibly more than that taken by the Black Death, and higher than the number killed in World War I.[3] This extraordinary toll resulted from the extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms.

The disease was first observed at Fort Riley, Kansas, United States, on March 4, 1918,[4] and Queens, New York, on March 11, 1918. In August 1918, a more virulent strain appeared simultaneously in Brest, France, in West Africa at Freetown, Sierra Leone, and in the U.S. at Boston, Massachusetts. The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish Flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship.[5]

Scientists have used tissue samples from frozen victims to reproduce the virus for study. Given the strain's extreme virulence there has been controversy regarding the wisdom of such research. Among the conclusions of this research is that the virus kills via a cytokine storm, which explains its unusually severe nature and the unusual age profile of its victims (the virus caused an overreaction of the body's immune system - strong immune systems (ie young adults) ravaged the body, while weaker immune systems (ie children & middle age adults) caused less morbidity and mortality).

The difference between the influenza mortality age-distributions of the 1918 epidemic and normal epidemics. Deaths per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, for the interpandemic years 1911–1917 (dashed line) and the pandemic year 1918 (solid line).[6]
Chart of deaths in major citiesThe global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks (in contrast, AIDS killed 25 million in its first 25 years). Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[7] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[8] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed more people than the Black Death.[9]

An estimated 7 million died in India, about 2.78% of India's population at the time. In the Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught the disease died of it[citation needed]. In the U.S., about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000 died. In Britain as many as 250,000 died; in France more than 400,000. In Canada approximately 50,000 died. Entire villages perished in Alaska and southern Africa. In Australia an estimated 12,000 people died and in the Fiji Islands, 14% of the population died during only two weeks, and in Western Samoa 22%.

This huge death toll was caused by an extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms.[7] Indeed, symptoms in 1918 were so unusual that initially influenza was misdiagnosed as dengue, cholera, or typhoid. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred."[8] The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung.[6]

The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.[6][8] Another unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old.[10] This is unusual since influenza is normally most deadly to the very young (under age 2) and the very old (over age 70).
 

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Gettin' there
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
I have several friends and acquaintances who are doctorate level researchers in human genetics and molecular biology for a major west coast university. Their general consensus is learn how to sail....because when the next global pandemic hits, no matter what it is its going to be particularly nasty.
EXACTLY!

Someone from the Mayo Clinic states in the video that 'Tamiflu' may work, but only if given at the exact time (not too soon, not too late). Not only that, but they have proven that even if you take tamiflu, once the pills are gone, you can still get this virus.
It only helps to protect you while you are taking it. Once the pills are gone :eek:

They also say it would take a minimum of 6 months after the pandemic started for a vaccine to be made and start to distribute.
It will be up to medical personnel to decide who gets the vaccine. Anyone 65 and older will not get it. Young children, will NOT get it. Most people who will get the vaccine will be between the ages of 20 & 45 yrs. old.
 

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I drink your milkshake!
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They also say it would take a minimum of 6 months after the pandemic started for a vaccine to be made and start to distribute.
It will be up to medical personnel to decide who gets the vaccine. Anyone 65 and older will not get it. Young children, will NOT get it. Most people who will get the vaccine will be between the ages of 20 & 45 yrs. old.



And will be Government, LEA, Military or Medical individuals....not your average taxpayers.
 

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I have a friend who is a research scientist, and this is his thing. He says it's virtually impossible for the virus to mutate the RIGHT way four or five times in order for it to develop to fit the receptors for humans.

In his opinion, the bird flu is nothing to worry about.
... Except that it's already *found* in humans- AND there is documented human to human transferrance.....
 

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I drink your milkshake!
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... Except that it's already *found* in humans- AND there is documented human to human transferrance.....
Are you referring to SARS? Because as I am aware, there are no documented cases of Bird Flu in humans, its only the threat of this mutating that people are worried about.
 

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Banned
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It is near impossible for the virus to mutate to harm humans.

Tell that to the Ebola victims, and the people who died from Spanish Flu in 1918.

Viruses mutate all the time, everyday. This is the reason that there is no vaccine for colds--rhino viruses mutate everytime they pass through a human.

T
 

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Gettin' there
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2008_12_16/en/index.html

Avian influenza - situation in Egypt

16 December 2008 -- The Ministry of Health and Population of Egypt has announced a new human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection. The case is a 16-year-old female from Assuit Governorate, Upper Egypt whose symptoms began on 8 December 2008. She was initially hospitalized at the district hospital on 11 December and then transferred to the Assuit University Hospital on 13 December where she died on 15 December. Infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus was diagnosed by PCR at the Egyptian Central Public Health Laboratory and subsequently confirmed by the US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3) laboratories on 15 December 2008. Investigations into the source of her infection indicate a recent history of contact with sick and dead poultry.

Of the 51 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 23 have been fatal.
 

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I guess if we don't learn from the 1918 flu pandemic then we are not all that good at learning from history. When the flu pandemic hit some small towns and whole families were wiped out. If your family had the flu you were often banned from going into public places. Panic set in where ever the flu hit. It would probably be good to have stored food to keep you out of the public unless you are a person with an excellent immune system. The flu still is one of our leading killers here in the US. It may not be the bird flu, but I don't think it will matter much to you if you are drowning in your own fluids, gasping for that one last breath that will never come.

http://www.madison.com/wsj/topstories/429890
 

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Grouchy Infidel
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19-year-old woman dies from bird flu

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ghdkIg5knBtGcVm1UfEwvXSnaAPAD95HMOK82


BEIJING (AP) — A Chinese woman has died from bird flu in a Beijing hospital, the government reported Tuesday, but the World Health Organization said the case did not appear to signal a new public health threat.

China's Ministry of Health said Huang Yanqing, 19, died Monday and tests confirmed she had the H5N1 bird flu virus. The official Xinhua News Agency said Huang became ill after buying and cleaning nine ducks in December at a market in Hebei province, which borders Beijing.

It was the first reported death in China from the illness in nearly a year.

Her father, Huang Jinxian, told reporters that the family tried to treat Yanqing at home first with store bought medicine. "It was useless, so we sent her to Guanzhuang hospital" in the eastern suburbs of Beijing, he said.

The WHO said Huang's case was similar to others reported worldwide, in that it did not appear to involve human-to-human transmission.

"This single case, which appears to have occurred during the slaughtering and preparation of poultry, does not change our risk assessment," the organization's Beijing office said in a statement.

Officials worry the virus could mutate into a much-feared form that could spread easily among people. But, for now, it remains hard for people to catch, with most human cases linked to contact with infected birds.

According to the latest WHO tally, bird flu has killed 248 people worldwide since 2003, including 21 in China.

In northern Vietnam, meanwhile, an 8-year-old girl has tested positive for the disease — the first human case reported there in almost a year, health officials said Tuesday.

The girl from Thanh Hoa province was admitted to a hospital on Dec. 27 with a high fever and other symptoms after eating a sick goose raised by the family, said Nguyen Ngoc Thanh, acting director of the provincial health department. The girl is recovering.

The H5N1 bird flu virus continues to devastate poultry stocks around the world. China, which raises more poultry than any other country, has vowed to aggressively fight the virus.
 

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I don't get why people make such a big deal about bird flu.
It is near impossible for the virus to mutate to harm humans. (It's more than 1 in a million chance of it becoming dangerous to humans from what i have seen)

IMO there are much worse things that could harm you i don't think bird flu is worth worrying about.

(But i am sure everyone is going to disagree)
Trust me it is something to worry about. I work for Environmental Health and Safety here at UT and our VP is the CDC contact for southeast Texas/LA and they are worried... meaning we should be very worried.
http://publicaffairs.uth.tmc.edu/safety1st/archive/10172005.html
public affairs piece from my office
 

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apparently i'm misinformed about this whole bird flu thing. i see that it's already found in humans, but not yet transmittable; which is what i thought. however, i don't see any cases in the US. there's a teacher that works with my mother (teacher) who is slowly going blind. it's pretty sad really. anyway, she said he has bird flu !!! :eek:

so my mom is wrong then about him having bird flu...right? lol
 

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apparently i'm misinformed about this whole bird flu thing. i see that it's already found in humans, but not yet transmittable; which is what i thought. however, i don't see any cases in the US. there's a teacher that works with my mother (teacher) who is slowly going blind. it's pretty sad really. anyway, she said he has bird flu !!! :eek:

so my mom is wrong then about him having bird flu...right? lol
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10210501/H5N1_H2H_Extensive.html

Actually, human to human transmission IS occurring. Just not on a widespread scale. It is found in small, generally familial clusters. So- it's a very short hop before it can be more readily transmittable between humans. THAT is what is scary.
 

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Brutalsun ... interesting about your University of Texas story.

The link to the flu press release is dated 2005. If there anything more recent from the UT folks that reflects their concern for bird flu, et al?
 
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